DISASTER PREPAREDNESS
A KEY ELEMENT OF BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
EVERY REGION HAS CITIES AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDSEVERY REGION HAS CITIES AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDSEVERY REGION HAS CITIES AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDSEVERY REGION HAS CITIES AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDS
200 NATIONS AND 7
BILLION PEOPLE
200 NATIONS AND 7
BILLION PEOPLE
NORTH AMERICA
NORTH AMERICA
CARIBBEAN BASIN
CARIBBEAN BASIN
SUB-SAHARAAFRICA
SUB-SAHARAAFRICA
MEDITER-RANEAN
MEDITER-RANEAN
ISLAND NATIONS ISLAND NATIONS
ASIA ASIA
SOUTHAMERICASOUTH
AMERICA
EUROPEEUROPE
CITYCITYCITYCITYDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
•NATURAL HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION
RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
GOAL: DISASTER GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY IENCE
FOUR PILLARS OF FOUR PILLARS OF RESILIENCERESILIENCE
DISASTERS OCCUR WHEN---
A CITY’S (COMMUNITY’S) PUBLIC POLICIES LEAVE IT …
UN—PREPAREDFOR THE INEVITABLE NATURAL HAZARDS
GLOBAL GOAL:FROM UN—PREPARED
TO A STATE OF
PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL CITIES AND ALL
NATURAL HAZARDS
GLOBAL GOAL:FROM UN—PREPARED
TO A STATE OF
PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL CITIES AND ALL
NATURAL HAZARDS
PURPOSE: Information from these
assessments will facilitate the adoption and
implementation of policies that will enable the city to be
prepared when it happens.
HAZARD AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS
• HAZARD-- What are the potential disaster agents of the flood, earthquake, severe windstorm, etc. and how often does each one occur?
• VULNERABILITY – Does the city’s built environment have weaknesses with respect to any of the potential disaster agents? What are they?
RISK AND LOSS ASSESSMENTS
• RISK—What is the chance of loss when the potential disaster agents of a natural hazard interact with vulnerable elements of the built environment of a city?
• LOSS OF FUNCTION– The degree and distribution of the losses of function?
• SOCIOECONOMIC LOSS-- How many homeless? Jobless, Injured? Dead? And what is the economic loss?
HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS
ELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISK
EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION
RISKRISKRISKRISK
FLOODS IN S. CA: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
FLOODS IN S. CA: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHICH RIVER (S) WILL OVERFLOW ITS BANKS, DIKES, OR LEVEES?
• WHEN?• THE DISASTER AGENTS?• BUILT ENVIRONMENT
ELEMENTS IN FLOODPLAIN?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
• WHICH RIVER (S) WILL OVERFLOW ITS BANKS, DIKES, OR LEVEES?
• WHEN?• THE DISASTER AGENTS?• BUILT ENVIRONMENT
ELEMENTS IN FLOODPLAIN?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
FLOODS IN CHINA: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
FLOODS IN CHINA: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHICH RIVER (S) WILL OVERFLOW ITS BANKS, DIKES, OR DAMS?
• WHEN?• THE DISASTER AGENTS?• BUILT ENVIRONMENT
ELEMENTS IN FLOODPLAIN?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
• WHICH RIVER (S) WILL OVERFLOW ITS BANKS, DIKES, OR DAMS?
• WHEN?• THE DISASTER AGENTS?• BUILT ENVIRONMENT
ELEMENTS IN FLOODPLAIN?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN
FLOODSFLOODS
INUNDATION
INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS DAMAGE FROM WATER
WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS)
EROSION AND MUDFLOWS
CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER
CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND
DISASTER
CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND
DISASTER
CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES
HURRICANE ANDREW: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
HURRICANE ANDREW: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHERE WILL THE HUR-RICANE MAKE LANDFALL?
• HOW BIG (CAT)? • THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
• WHERE WILL THE HUR-RICANE MAKE LANDFALL?
• HOW BIG (CAT)? • THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
TYPHOON TALAS: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
TYPHOON TALAS: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHERE WILL THE TY-PHOON MAKE LANDFALL?
• HOW BIG (CAT)? • THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
• WHERE WILL THE TY-PHOON MAKE LANDFALL?
• HOW BIG (CAT)? • THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
WIND AND WATER PENETRATE BUILDING ENVELOPE
SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM
FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES WINDOWS
STORM SURGE AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN
POOR WORKMANSHIP
FAILURE OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER
CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER
CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES
EARTHQUAKE (KOBE): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
EARTHQUAKE (KOBE): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?
• WHEN?• HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?• THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
• WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?
• WHEN?• HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?• THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
EARTHQUAKE (TURKEY): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
EARTHQUAKE (TURKEY): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?
• WHEN?• HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?• THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
• WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?
• WHEN?• HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?• THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SOIL FAILURE AND SURFACE FAULTING )
IRREGULARITIES IN MASS, STRENGTH, AND STIFFNESS
FLOODING FROM TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP AND SEICHE
POOR DETAILING OF STRUCTURALSYSTEM
FAILURE OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER
CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER
CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES
TSUNAMI (JAPAN): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
TSUNAMI (JAPAN): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHERE WILL THE TSUNAMI OCCUR?
• WHEN?• HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?• THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
• WHERE WILL THE TSUNAMI OCCUR?
• WHEN?• HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?• THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
TSUNAMI (INDONESIA): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHERE WILL THE TSUNAMI OCCUR?
• WHEN?, HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES
TSUNAMIS TSUNAMIS
INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP
VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS
FLOODING
NO WARNING, OR INADEQUATE WARNING
PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI
CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER
CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER
CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES
VOLCANIC ERUPTION (CHILE): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTSVOLCANIC ERUPTION (CHILE): HAZARD,
VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHEN WILL THE ERUPTION OCCUR?
• DURATION?• HOW BIG (VEI)? • THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
• WHEN WILL THE ERUPTION OCCUR?
• DURATION?• HOW BIG (VEI)? • THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
VOLCANIC ERUPTION (ICELAND): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTSVOLCANIC ERUPTION (ICELAND): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHEN WILL THE ERUPTION OCCUR?
• DURATION?• HOW BIG (VEI)? • THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
• WHEN WILL THE ERUPTION OCCUR?
• DURATION?• HOW BIG (VEI)? • THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
PROXIMITY TO LATERAL BLAST
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS (TEPHRA)
IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH (AVIATION)
IN PATH OF LAVA AND PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
IN PATH OF LAHARS
IGNORING WARNING TO EVACUATE
CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER
CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER
CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES
VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• LAVA FLOWS
• LAHARS
• EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava)
• “VOLCANIC WINTER”
WILDFIRE (GREECE): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
WILDFIRE (GREECE): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHEN AND WHY WILL THE WILDFIRE OCCUR?
• LOCATION?• DURATION?• THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
• WHEN AND WHY WILL THE WILDFIRE OCCUR?
• LOCATION?• DURATION?• THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
WILDFIRE (RUSSIA): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
WILDFIRE (RUSSIA): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHEN AND WHY WILL THE WILDFIRE OCCUR?
• LOCATION?• DURATION?• THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
• WHEN AND WHY WILL THE WILDFIRE OCCUR?
• LOCATION?• DURATION?• THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILDFIRESWILDFIRES
MANMADE FIRES
PROXIMITY OF URBAN AREA TO THE WILDLAND FIRE
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION (DAY/NIGHT)
DRYNESS
HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOCAL FUEL SUPPLY
CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND DISASTER
CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND DISASTER
DISASTER LABORATORIES
DISASTER LABORATORIES
LANDSLIDES (CHINA): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
LANDSLIDES (CHINA): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHEN AND WHY WILL THE LANDSLIDE OCCUR?
• LOCATION AND SIZE?• THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
• WHEN AND WHY WILL THE LANDSLIDE OCCUR?
• LOCATION AND SIZE?• THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
LANDSLIDES (TAIWAN): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
LANDSLIDES (TAIWAN): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS
• WHEN AND WHY WILL THE LANDSLIDE OCCUR?
• LOCATION AND SIZE?• THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
• WHEN AND WHY WILL THE LANDSLIDE OCCUR?
• LOCATION AND SIZE?• THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE
BUILT ENVIRONMENT?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
OTHER HAZARDS
• NOTE: HAZUS has now been extended to include floods and severe windstorms, along with earthquakes..
HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• The HAZUS-MH Earthquake Program is a comprehensive, state-of-the-art, loss estimation methodology that was established in the early 1980’s
• It is the standard for earthquake loss estimation by governments in earthquake-prone regions of the United States.
LOSS ESTIMATIONLOSS ESTIMATIONLOSS ESTIMATIONLOSS ESTIMATION
EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
HAZARDSHAZARDS
EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
HAZARDSHAZARDS
EVENTEVENT
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY
PEOPLESTRUCTURESPROPERTYENVIRONMENTINFRASTRUCTURE
EXPOSUREEXPOSURE
EXPECTED EXPECTED
LOSSLOSS
EXPECTED EXPECTED
LOSSLOSS
HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• More than 137 earthquake and software professionals contributed to the development of the program through working groups, oversight groups, pilot studies in Boston, MA and Portland, OR, and calibration studies combining data and experience.
HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• Loss estimation for earthquakes involves the probabilistic integration of interlinked parameters of the community’s hazard and built environments into a comprehensive risk model.
OTHER EARTHQUAKE LOSS MODELS
• Private-sector companies (e.g., insurers and large business enterprises) have their own proprietary loss estimation models, which may differ from HAZUS in some areas of analysis..
GOOD DECISION MAKING
• HAZUS -- Earthquake provides a reliable tool for loss estimation, which is essential for good decision making about earthquake resilience at the local, region, state, and national levels of government.
STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• HAZUS is “a work in progress” that can only get better with time as new data (e.g., fragility curves for some elements of the community’s hazard and built environment) and new experiences are added after posteartquake studies of future damaging earthquakes.
STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• HAZUS will provide relative answers, but not absolute answers for all communities and all situations, but like the “Law of large numbers” underpinning the business of insurance, the answers will converge and provide a reasonable solution.
STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• HAZUS develops a loss estimation scenario that is based on specific information on the community’s hazard and built environments.
• The latter data are provided by the user.
SOME DATA ON A COMMUNITY’S BUILT SOME DATA ON A COMMUNITY’S BUILT ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT BE AVAILABLEENVIRONMENT MAY NOT BE AVAILABLESOME DATA ON A COMMUNITY’S BUILT SOME DATA ON A COMMUNITY’S BUILT ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT BE AVAILABLEENVIRONMENT MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE
STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• HAZUS contains generic default data bases if the community does not have all of the required information on parameters characterizing its hazard, exposure, and vulnerability.
STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• HAZUS’ default data bases are linked to good performance in past earthquakes (i.e., to the adoption and enforcement of building codes and lifeline standards).
STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• HAZUS’ default databases include: characterization of the hazard, characterization of elements of the exposure, characterization of elements of vulnerability, and characterization of parameter uncertainty, BUT not community-specific databases.
STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• HAZUS provides the user with the option of replacing the basic databases (i.e., the “default” databases) with community-specific databases.
STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• HAZUS is most accurate when applied to a class of buildings and infrastructure in the community that is very similar to those in the default database, and least accurate when applied to a specific building or a specific element of infrastructure.
STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• Losses from earthquakes of M6.0 or less tend to be overestimated, and losses from great earthquakes of M8.0 to M9.5 may be so catastrophic that they are overwhelming and meaningless for scenario planning.
STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE
• Loss estimates for some global communities will have greater uncertainty than loss estimates for other communities (e.g., in California). Nevertheless, they are still useful for forming public policy for disaster resilience.
HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE INTERDISCIPLINARY TEAM
• The community at risk should form a team comprised of:
1. Geologist (s)
2. Seismologist (s)
3. Structural engineer (s)
4. Geotechnical engineer (s)
HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE INTERDISCIPLINARY TEAM
5. Economist (s) – finance officers
6. Sociologist(s)
7. Emergency planner(s), from state office of emergency services
8. Public works personnel
9. Loss estimation users.
10. Local business leader
THE GOAL OF EVERY CITYTHE GOAL OF EVERY CITY
• WELL PREPARED FOR ALL NATURAL HAZARDS (E.G., FLOODS, SEVERE WINDSTORMS, EARTHQUAKES, ETC.)
• WELL PREPARED FOR ALL NATURAL HAZARDS (E.G., FLOODS, SEVERE WINDSTORMS, EARTHQUAKES, ETC.)