© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
INTERNATIONAL BEIRUT ENERGY FORUM 26 SEPTEMBER 2019
DIGITALIZING THE ELECTRICITY INFRASTRUCTURE OF LEB NONTHE ROAD TO A SMART GRID UNTIL 2030
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
WHO ARE WE ?FIVE AMBITIOUS FELLERSWHO MET AT DIFFERENT CROSSROADS
Salim al Banna, Eng. MBAUtility expertNUC, 10 years of experience
Patil Mesrobian, MSc.Environmental specialistLCEC, 5 years of experience
Serge Saad, Eng.Solar energy and data centers specialist, Ogero and LSES, 3 years of experience
Farid Comaty, Eng. MSc.Senior Consultant Navigant, 5 years of experience
Perla Tannous, Eng. MSc.Solar energy specialistEcosys, 2 years of experience
The content of the presentation are purely the views of the authors and do not represent the views of the company they work for or any local experts they have interviewed or WEC Lebanon
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
THE CHALLENGE WE DECIDED TO FACE
Required expert effort to deliver a smart grid roadmap
Taskforce 3 effort until now
~Years of team experience
~ 5
~ 10
~ 15
Total number of hours
~ 1,500 ~ 3,000 ~ 4,500 ~ 6,000 ~ 7,500 ~ 9,000 >10,000
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
30% of variable renewable energy supply will be integrated in the generation mix
20% of the electricity demand will be flexible and responds to variable prices
10% EV are on the road and will contribute to the balancing of the power system
New value added services will be offered to customers based on Artificial Intelligence and Smart Meter data
An electricity market will be in place where generation, distributed and central, renewable and non renewable, will compete to serve the customers
The Lebanese power system will be capable to self heal itself and operate in a network of microgrids in unexpected events
WHAT IS OUR VISION?LEBANONWILL HAVE A SMART GRID BY 2030WHERE:
Icons provided by the Noun Project
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
30% of variable renewable energy supply will be integrated in the generation mix
20% of the electricity demand will be flexible and responds to variable prices
10% EV are on the road and will contribute to the balancing of the power system
New value added services will be offered to customers based on Artificial Intelligence and Smart Meter data
An electricity market will be in place where generation, distributed and central, renewable and non renewable, will compete to serve the customers
The Lebanese power system will be capable to self heal itself and operate in a network of microgrids in unexpected events
WHAT IS OUR VISION?LEBANONWILL HAVE A SMART GRID BY 2030WHERE:
Icons provided by the Noun Project
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
WHAT IS A SMART GRID?IT IS A DECENTRALIZED, DECARBONIZED AND DIGITALIZED GRID
YESTERDAY: CENTRAL ONE-WAY POWER SYSTEM
TOMORROW: DISTRIBUTED MULTIY-WAY POWER SYSTEM
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WHY LEBANON NEEDS A SMART GRID ROADMAP?
Nationwide Policies
Ensure electricity
supply security and reliability
Ministry of Energy and Water Policies
Increase Energy Efficiency and
shares of renewables
Expand generation and grid capacity
Policy paper goal Smart grid RoadMap
Reduce oil import
dependence of Lebanon
Reduce technical and non
technical losses
Deploy large scale renewable & battery storage
Deploy smart meters, AMI center, substation automation, asset health center
Deploy distributed energy management system, RE forecasting center, DLRs
*Adapted from World Bank: Practical Guidance for defining a Smart Grid Modernization Strategy
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
WHAT SMART GRID CAPABILITIES WILL SHAPE THE VALUE CHAIN OF A DIGITAL ELECTRICITY INFRASTRUCTURE ?
Advanced Metering Infrastructure
1
Infrastructure
New services and
applications
Enabling capabilities
Generation Transmission Distribution End user
Generation Dispatch and forecasting
4
Asset Management5
Distributed Generation
6
Demand Response
7
Electric Mobility
8Transmission Automation
3
Electricity market platform11
Distribution Automation
2
Value Added Services9
10Digital Applications
Advanced Communication Systems12
Network Security (Physical and Cyber)13
Artificial Intelligence (AI)14
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
HOW TO PRIORITIZE THESE SMART GRID CAPABILITIES TO TRANSFORM OUR VISION TO REALITY?
1 DEFINE VISION
• Identify key business requirements
• Leverage international lessons learned to set targets and goals
• Conduct workshops with senior level executives and operational managers
2 ASSESS CURRENT STATE
• Identify the current state of the Lebanese power system “how smart is it ?”
• Analyze gap of current state and vision by creating inventory of technologies and assessing skillset of workforce, corporate governance & market regulation
3 GENERATE LIST OF PROJECTS
• Define all potential smart grid projects required to modernize the Lebanese power system to highest level and bridge the gap
• Identify the dependencies and risks between projects
4 CONDUCT COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
• Conduct a cost benefit analysis over 10-15 years
• Prioritize list of projects based on value and complexity
6 MONITOR IMPLEMENTATION
• Develop KPIs for evaluation
• Monitor cost of technologies
• Review and update roadmap
5 CREATE ROADMAP AND DETAILED IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
• Outline timeline of implementation in short, medium and long term based on priority list• Outline interdependencies and critical paths between projects to ensure continuous implementation• Develop resource and implementation plan to manage and execute smart grid program, including pilot testing,
standards/certifications processes and procurement• Develop risk management plan to mitigate delays in implementation
© World Energy Council 2018 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
Establish the enabling capabilities of a Smart Grida Reliable and Secure Advanced Metering Infrastructure
1. Define vision
2. Assess current state
3. Generate list of projects
4. Conduct cost benefit analysis
5. Roadmap and implementation plan
6. Monitor implementation
WHERE DO WE START ?
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HOW DID WE DO IT?
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AMI VISION
1CURRENT STATE
2AMI
PROJECTS
3AMI COST BENEFIT
4AMI
ROADMAP
5AMI
MONITOR
6
EDL KEY BUSINESS REQUIREMENTReduce technical and non technical losses
Improve bill collection
0
Technical Losses, 12%Non‐Technical Losses, 15%
Delayed Payments, 16%
USD $1.8 Billion
Fuel subsidies, 40%
Collected Bills
O&M, 17% O&M
EDL BUDGET DEFICIT: 2018 EDL BUSINESS NUMBERS: CURRENT STATE
Measure Impact
Reduce losses by 1% Increase revenues by USD 15 Million
Add 100 MW of production Increase deficit by USD 60 Million
Increase tariff by USD 1 cent Decrease deficit by USD 100 Million
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
AMI VISION
1CURRENT STATE
2AMI
PROJECTS
3AMI COST BENEFIT
4AMI
ROADMAP
5AMI
MONITOR
6
EDL KEY BUSINESS REQUIREMENTReduce technical and non technical losses
Improve bill collection
EDL Losses 38%
Technical 17%
Variable Losses ~I2R >70%
SG Tech + AMI
Fixed Losses~Een_Tr<30%
SG Tech beyond AMI
Non-Technical 21%
Meter tampering AMI eliminate
Line tamperingAMI detect but
can not eliminate
Faulty meter AMI improve accuracy
Non payment by customer
AMI remote accelerate cash
payment
Other (lost receipts) AMI Eliminate
MEW Loss reduction target by 2025
• Compared to a business as Usual, a full deployment of AMI, including remote load shedding and digital billing, has the potential to save EDL $ 250-350 Mn per year.
• This number excludes the reduction in operational cost of EDL e.g meter reading / inspection / outage management + indirect benefit of customers e.g increase reliability / awareness of energy bill / enabling home energy management systems etc
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
AMI VISION
1CURRENT STATE
2AMI
PROJECTS
3AMI COST BENEFIT
4AMI
ROADMAP
5AMI
MONITOR
6
Timeline Legal Framework
Communication Infrastructure Billing System
EDL, DSP, EDZ Achievements
Accelerating rollout
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
AMI VISION
1CURRENT STATE
2AMI
PROJECTS
3AMI COST BENEFIT
4AMI
ROADMAP
5AMI
MONITOR
6
First Pilot Project‐ DSP conducted first sets of Pilot projects on M5 Meters, lots of trials and errors‐ Some DSP’s conclude the installation of M3 on MV Feeders
2013
Rollout Finally Begins‐ DSP Started the installation of M4 Meters on Private customers (Malls, Hospitals, Factories…)‐ Certification of Meters in 3rd party laboratories was conducted, two DSPs received certification‐ Validation of Meters on local grid completed, at least one DSP passed this stage‐ 1st DSP to start rollout with 1% stage with Finally Approved meters for installation on Lebanese Grid
2019
Project Relaunch ‐ Lebanese Companion at Last‐ Lebanese Companion was developed,‐ DSP’s started Certification Process
2018
Launch of DSP Project‐ SM core of the project‐ Specs not comprehensive enough for SMART rollout
2012
Data Center to be Awarded‐ Awarding of Data Center to connect and manage all SM’s‐ Final Solution to include temporary HES to manage rollout of Meters
2020
Smart Meter Rollout Complete‐ SMART Meters Rollout to be completed‐ DSPs would have deployed and connected smart meters to a central HES and MDMS
2021
Past
Present –Near Future
Timeline
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AMI VISION
1CURRENT STATE
2AMI
PROJECTS
3AMI COST BENEFIT
4AMI
ROADMAP
5AMI
MONITOR
6
Service & Operation Contract
Meter Manufacturers
Certification Laboratories
Lebanese Companion
STEP 1
Site Validation
STEP 2
1% Rollout(Rollout Testing)
STEP 3
10% Rollout(Rollout Testing)
STEP 4
Full Deployment
STEP 5
Legal framework
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
AMI VISION
1CURRENT STATE
2AMI
PROJECTS
3AMI COST BENEFIT
4AMI
ROADMAP
5AMI
MONITOR
6
11 Elecricite Du Liban
22
33
1. Reducing non technical losses 2. Designing the process of the smart roll out and establishing a smart meter program officer3. Establishment of Lebanese Companion (Standard)4. Training of 250 EDL sworn inspectors 5. Tender for AMI Center to manage all Smart Meters to be installed
EDL, DSP and EDZ achievements
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
AMI VISION
1CURRENT STATE
2AMI
PROJECTS
3AMI COST BENEFIT
4AMI
ROADMAP
5AMI
MONITOR
6
Residential LV Communication Network Utility/Third partyData Reception & Management
Data Concentrator Unit (DCU)
MV M4 Meters Public
Private MV M4-Meters
1 Watt Router
M5-Meter
Power Line Carrier (PLC)
M5-Meter
M5-Meter
GPRS Communication
M5-Meter
M5-Meter
M5-Meter
GPRSRouter
SUBNET
MV M4 Meters Public/Private
LoRaWANRfMesh
EDLData Center
Communication Infrastructure
GPRS Communication
EDZHead End System
Future Communication
≥ 2021
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
AMI VISION
1CURRENT STATE
2AMI
PROJECTS
3AMI COST BENEFIT
4AMI
ROADMAP
5AMI
MONITOR
6
EDL Data
Bill Collection /Unpaid Bills
DSP Customer
Data
Meter Reading
CollectionManagement
BillingManagement
Printing Bills
Approve Readings
Add Reading
Data Convert Files to printing
Printed Bills/ Updated reading data
Account Management
Sort Unpaid
Bills
30 Days Process
30 Days Process
Reading Data To EDL
Unpaid Bills To EDL
1 Day Process AMI Data Center
• Remote Reading Availability• Easy Data Export
EDL Billing System
EDLData Center
1 2
3
6
4
5
8
7
3 4
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AMI VISION
1CURRENT STATE
2AMI
PROJECTS
3AMI COST BENEFIT
4AMI
ROADMAP
5AMI
MONITOR
6
• The current regulation in place for replacing mechanical meters will likely delay rollout given the critical path for having one EDL sworn inspector for each new smart meter installed. Training and delegating to DSP will alleviate load on EDL.
• MEW should clarify the role and responsibilities of DSPs after 2021 and EDZ after 2020 and how EDL plans to integrate five different customer billing portals (four DSPs + EDZ) into the AMI data center and continue carrying the same quality in customer service.
• EDL should clarify how the DSPs are supposed to deal with the transition solution until the AMI data center is built, e.g are they supposed to procure their own Head‐End System ? If so, what specs are needed to ensure compatibility with future AMI data center?
• Law makers should prepare a reform for billing collection allowing customers to opt for digital billing, cutting cost for EDL and accelerating payment process
Accelerating rollout: Recommendations from DSPs and EDZ
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
AMI VISION
1CURRENT STATE
2AMI
PROJECTS
3AMI COST BENEFIT
4AMI
ROADMAP
5AMI
MONITOR
6
AMI FunctionalityUtility operation
Level 1 BAU
Level 2 AMI Basic
Level 3 AMI Advance
Level 4 Utility of the Future
Meter reading • Send utility personnel to read meter
• Remote reading through HES
• Integration of meter reads in AMI data center
• Integration of AMI data center with other operational and IT systems at EDL (SCADA, DMS, OMS...)
Connect/Disconnect • Send utility personnel to connect/disconnect
• connect/disconnect smart meters remotely
• Automated connect/disconnect with billing
• Automated connect/disconnect integrated with other use cases (firefight, cyber breach, move in/out…)
Theft detection • Manual identification of abnormal consumption
• Manual theft detection with smart meter
• Manual theft detection with data analytics
• AI theft detection using big data analytics
Outage management system (OMS)
• Manual outage management
• Use smart meter “last gasp” and “ping” calls
• Integrate OMS in AMI Data Center
• Pro-active automated OMS
Power quality management
• Load flow modelling to derive PQ issues and reinforce grid
• Use smart meter PQ measurement to mitigate local issues
• Integration of PQ measurement in AMI data center
• AI Power Quality management using big data analytics
EDL Current state Functionality enabled but requires regulation reform *Adapted from World Bank: Practical Guidance for defining a Smart Grid Modernization Strategy
Define AMI smart grid functionalities and map EDL current state
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
AMI VISION
1CURRENT STATE
2AMI
PROJECTS
3AMI COST BENEFIT
4AMI
ROADMAP
5AMI
MONITOR
6
AMI FunctionalityCustomer service
Level 1 BAU
Level 2 AMI Basic
Level 3 AMI Advance
Level 4 Utility of the Future
Billing • Printing of bills and manual collection for payment
• Digital bill and online payment
• Generate near real time automated and accurate bills based on customer preference
• Enable pre paid billing and pro-actively notify customers for over consumption
Tariff setting • Fixed rate regulated tariff
• Time of use tariffs • Variable wholesale power market prices are passed to HEMS
• Peer to Peer trading capabilities included in HEMS
Load forecasting • Assumption based, macro economic and temperature driven
• Ex post forecasting based on granular smart meter data
• Ex ante AI forecasting based on granular smart meter data
• Probabilistic AI forecast based on customer likelihood adoption of DER assets and EVs
AMI Fingerprinting • n/a • Disaggregate load in household per appliance and detect abnormal use
• Ability to prevent malfunction of appliances with predictive maintenance
• Offers continuous lifecycle management services to customers for reuse of appliances
EDL Current state Functionality enabled but requires regulation reform *Adapted from World Bank: Practical Guidance for defining a Smart Grid Modernization Strategy
Define AMI smart grid functionalities and map EDL current state
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
AMI VISION
1CURRENT STATE
2AMI
PROJECTS
3AMI COST BENEFIT
4AMI
ROADMAP
5AMI
MONITOR
6
• The business case is clear: With non‐technical losses of ~20%, an AMI will likely pay back in ~3 years- CAPEX full AMI < USD $ 150 million- OPEX savings for EDL > USD $ 50 million per year at non‐technical loss reduction rate of 3% per year
• The priority to enable the benefits is to reach the AMI Advance capabilities for utility operation by 2020 i.eAMI Data Center is a MUST that should not be delayed
• It is important to plan already with local stakeholders in the utility sector how to enable the customer service AMI capabilities in Lebanon post 2021
• While monitoring deployment of AMI, it is important to benchmark the costs and benefits of a LORA vs PLC communication systems in connecting and validating meter reads and publish results to raise awareness of a) technology readiness level of LORA b) leapfrogging capabilities of Lebanese utilities
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
AMI VISION
1CURRENT STATE
2AMI
PROJECTS
3AMI COST BENEFIT
4AMI
ROADMAP
5AMI
MONITOR
6
AMI Capability
2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4
Meter Reading
1% 10% 40% 70% 100%
• DSP deploy Smart Meters and connect them to their own supplier software
• Safe disposal of old meters
• EDL Procure AMI Data Center• DSP procure HES in transition• DSP connect SM to HES• Increase sworn inspectors • Safe disposal of old meters
• Integration of HES in AMI Data Center• Safe disposal of old meters• IT-OT Integration SCADA-OMS
• Integration of AMI Data Center with other EDL process and new smart grid capabilities e.g DERMS, EV Charging stations.
Billing • Law makers legislate regulation to reform billing procedure from paper to digital
• DSPs proof reads automated and manual reads
• Complete automation of billing process
• Near real time VEE billing
• Enable pre-paid billing • Pro-active notification systems for over consumption
Connect / Disconnect
• Law makers authorize DSPs to disconnect remotely non paying customers
• Remote disconnection of non paying customers
• Automation of disconnection of non paying customers (including warning messages)
• Automation of disconnection processes with other use cases (e.g Cybersecurity breah, firefighting, move in move out …)
Theft Detection • Manual theft detection with data analytics (energy correlation) • Hire Data Analytics Experts
• AI Theft Detection
Outage Management
• Manual Outage detection • DSP leverage “last gasp” and “ping” functionality of smart meters to detect outages
• Integrate OMS in Data Center• IT-OT Integration AMI-SCADA
• Hire Data Analytics Experts• Pro active outage management, prediction of outages and time duration for restoration of outages• Integration with other new smart grid capabilities e.g DERMS, EV, Charging
PQ Management
• All four DSPs are using smart meter PQ measurement to mitigate local issues
• Integration of PQ measurement in AMI data center
• AI Power Quality management using big data analytics
BAU AMI Basic AMI Advance Utility of Future
Deployment rate
Success rate of remote reads Billing reformAMI DATA CENTER
Capacity Increase
Data Analyitcs ExpertCritical
path
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
AMI VISION
1CURRENT STATE
2AMI
PROJECTS
3AMI COST BENEFIT
4AMI
ROADMAP
5AMI
MONITOR
6
AMI Capability
2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4
Tariff Setting
1% 10% 40% 70% 100%
• Fixed rate regulated tariff M5• Time of use tariff M4 Customers
• Time of use tariffs M5 Customers • BEMS / HEMS deployed • Variable wholesale power market
prices are passed to HEMS
• Peer to Peer trading on the blockchain
Load forecasting
• Assumption based, macro economic and temperature driven • Ex post forecasting based on granular smart meter data
• Ex ante AI forecasting based on granular smart meter data
• Probabilistic AI forecast based on customer likelihood adoption of DER assets and EVs
AMI Fingerprinting
• n/a • Disaggregate load in household per appliance and detect abnormal use
• Ability to prevent malfunction of appliances with predictive maintenance
• Offers continuous lifecycle management services to customers for reuse of appliances
BAU AMI Basic AMI Advance Utility of Future
Deployment rate
DSP Procure HES AMI DATA CENTERCritical
path
Law 402 application Data Analyitcs Expert
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTIONHIT US WITH YOUR QUESTIONS
Salim al Banna, Eng. MBAUtility expertNUC, 10 years of experience
Patil Mesrobian, MSc.Environmental specialistLCEC, 5 years of experience
Serge Saad, Eng.Solar energy and data centers specialist, Ogero and LSES, 3 years of experience
Farid Comaty, Eng. MSc.Senior Consultant Navigant, 5 years of experience
Perla Tannous, Eng. MSc.Solar energy specialistEcosys, 2 years of experience
The content of the presentation are purely the views of the authors and do not represent the views of the company they work for or any local experts they have interviewed or WEC Lebanon
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
TASK FORCE 3: CONCLUSION AND NEXT STEPS
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM OTHER UTILITIES?
35 million customer
5 years pilot and trial: 2010 -2015
6 years deployment :2015� 2021
France
• Installation of 35 million smart meter LINKY PLC
Average cost per meter: $200Data concentrators transmission
data GPRS
Smart meters
deployment cost
$5 billionMeter Procurement
and Installation
Data Concentrators
IT System
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM OTHER UTILITIES?
8 years installationtimeframe
• Installation of 800,000 smart meter GPRS
Meter Procurement and Installation
Data Concentrators
IT System
800,000customer
Illinois
Smart meters
deployment cost
$272 Million
© World Energy Council 2019 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
4 years pilot +Trial : 2013-2016
5 years deployment : 2017-2021
WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM OTHER UTILITIES?
6.2 million customer
KSA
Smart meters
deployment cost
$3.25 billion
• Installation of 4.81 million smart meter PLCAverage cost per meter: $128
• Installation of 1.39 million smart meter GPRSAverage cost per meter: $186
Meter Procurement and Installation
Data Concentrators
IT System