Determining Microcystis bloom trigger points in the Maumee and Sandusky ecosystems
Joe Conroy1,2, Darren Bade3, Bill Edwards4, Doug Kane5, Theo Gover1, Kyla Hershey1, and David Culver1
1 – Dept. of EEOB, The Ohio State University, 2 – Current affiliation: Inland Fisheries Research Unit, DOW, ODNR, 3 – Dept. of Biol. Sci., Kent State University, 4 – Dept. of Biology, Niagara University, 5 – Nat. Sci. and Math. Division, Defiance College
Problem: Where & When do blooms start?
TimeTime
Sp
ace
Sp
ace
Late summerLate summerEarly springEarly spring
LakeLake
BaysBays
RiversRivers
TribsTribs
????
?? ?? ??
Roadmap
Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance
Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity
Extensions: moving the problem upstream
Roadmap
Part IPart I: Determining bloom trigger points: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance
Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity
Extensions: moving the problem upstream
Methods: Sampling locations
Methods: Sampling locations
Methods: Data Collection
Methods: Data Collection
Field SamplingField Sampling
Methods: Data Collection
Field SamplingField Sampling
Laboratory AnalysisLaboratory Analysis
Roadmap
Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance
Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity
Extensions: moving the problem upstream
Roadmap
Part IPart I: Determining bloom trigger points: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Results: quantifying Microcystis Microcystis abundanceabundance
Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity
Extensions: moving the problem upstream
Results: Microcystis trigger points
Results: Microcystis trigger points
Results: Microcystis trigger points
Results: Microcystis trigger points
Results: Microcystis trigger points
1970 cyanobacterial biomass = 1 g m-3
April tributary Microcystis biomass = 0.00–0.85 g m-3
Only four samples without Microcystis!
Roadmap
Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance
Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity
Extensions: moving the problem upstream
Roadmap
Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance
Part IIPart II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactionsMethods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity
Extensions: moving the problem upstream
Transient social-ecological stability: the effects of invasive species and ecosystem restoration on nutrient management compromise in Lake Erie
Eric Roy1,2, Jay Martin1, Elena Irwin3, Joe Conroy4,5, and David Culver4
1 – Dept. of FABE, The Ohio State University, 2 – Current affiliation: Dept. of Oceanogr. & Coastal Sci., Louisiana State University, 3 – Dept. of Agr., Env., & Devel. Econ., The Ohio State University, 4 – Dept. of EEOB, The Ohio State University, 5 – Current affiliation: Inland Fisheries Research Unit, DOW, ODNR
Published in: Ecology & Society 15(1): article 20 2010.http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol15/iss1/art20/
Methods: Modeling interactions
Methods: Modeling interactions
Ecological ModelEcological Model Social ModelSocial Model
Methods: Manipulations
Model calibrated & validated for Sandusky Bay» Few dreissenid mussels in Sandusky Bay» Large historical wetland at river-bay confluence
1. Simulated expansion of dreissenids into the bay» Consumptive effect ( phytoplankton, clarity = benefits)
– Set MCF (Mussel Consumption Factor = 1.25)» Excretory effect ( PP, clarity = benefits)
– Set MEF (Mussel Excretory Factor > 1.00)
2. Simulated wetland restoration» Mitigating effect ( P-load, PP, clarity = benefits)
– Reduce P-load 12%
Roadmap
Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance
Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity
Extensions: moving the problem upstream
Roadmap
Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance
Part IIPart II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexityResults: interpreting complexity
Extensions: moving the problem upstream
Results: Benefits through time
Results: Benefits through time
Results: Benefits through time
Results: Benefits through time
Results: Benefits through time
Results: Benefits through time
Results: Benefits through time ML, Be, Bp
MEF, Benefits
Add wetlands, Benefits
Compromise reached over 50 y
Social-ecological feedbacks
Roadmap
Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance
Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity
Extensions: moving the problem upstream
Roadmap
Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance
Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity
Extensions: moving the problem upstream
Where & When do blooms start?
Microcystis present in 0.3-m deep, 1st-order streams» Biomass in main-stem rivers, bays, and the open lake
Microcystis occurs by late April (at least)
Microcystis abundant through October (at least)
Current Microcystis biomass = 1970’s Cyanobacteria
Where & When do blooms start?
Where & When do blooms start?
TimeTime
Sp
ace
Sp
ace
Late summerLate summerEarly springEarly spring
LakeLake
BaysBays
RiversRivers
TribsTribs
????
?? ?? ??
Solving the Microcystis problem
People-ecosystem interactions important! Interactions between user groups also important
Ecological ModelEcological Model Social ModelSocial Model
Acknowledgements
Key personnel: » OSU: Amanda Martyn» KSU: Curtis Clevinger, Heather Kirkpatrick, Moumita Moitra» NU: Ashley Bantelman
Funding sources:» Ohio Lake Erie Protection Fund» Ohio Sea Grant College Program
Questions?Questions?