Deloitte MHRA WebinarTourism in focusJuly 2020, Private and confidential
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Previous Crisis Recovery Trends
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Tourism trends took 5 months to recover post-Sars
International Tourism | Post-crises Recovery Periods
Source: UNWTO
2%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
% C
ha
ng
e
Number of Months before/after event
Sars
SARS
SARSMonth 5:
First month of growth
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Tourism trends took 6 months to recover post-September 11th crisis
International Tourism | Post-crises Recovery Periods
Source: UNWTO
4%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
% C
ha
ng
e
Number of Months before/after event
September 11th Terrorist Attack
Sept 11th attacks
Sept 11thMonth 6:
First month of growth(intermittent)
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Tourism trends took 10 months to recover post-2010 Global Economic Crisis
International Tourism | Post-crises Recovery Periods
Source: UNWTO
(12%)
4%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
% C
ha
ng
e
Number of Months before/after event
Global Economic Crisis
Global Economic Crisis
Global econ. crisisMonth 10:
First month of growth
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-
1%
-
4%
3%
16%
8%
19%
10%
18%
15%
7%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Q4 2020
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
H1 2022
H2 2022
2023 and later
40% of respondents believe that the Covid-19 disruptive period will persist into 2022 and 2023
Hospitality Trends | Hospitality Recovery Period
Source: Deloitte Global COVID-19 hospitality sentiment survey
93% Beyond 2020 40% Beyond 2021 7% Beyond 2022
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-
-
-
6%
12%
17%
21%
28%
17%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Q3 2020
Q4 2020
H1 2021
H2 2021
H1 2022
H2 2022
H1 2023
H2 2023
2024 and later
65% of hoteliers believe that pre-COVID-19 levels of business will be achieved after 2021
Hospitality Trends | Hotel Pace of Recovery
Source: Deloitte Global COVID-19 hospitality sentiment survey
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Cash management has become the top priority for hoteliers
Hotel Sector| Key Priorities
Source: Deloitte Global COVID-19 hospitality sentiment survey
79%
73%
45%
42%
35%
27%
24%
4%
3%
3%
85%
53%
44%
54%
11%
44%
27%
12%
7%
2%
Cashflow/cash management
Worforce health and safety
Financing/lender considerations
Stakeholder relationships
Remote working capabilities
Propping up/supporting/streamlining operations
Transactions/expansion
Other
Supply chain
Infrastructure gaps, digital upskilling, bandwidth and cybersecurity limitations
23rd March Jul-03
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Automation of contactless processes and increased training are considered to be the most effective measures to safeguard health and safety of staff
Hotel Sector| Workforce Health and Safety
Source: Deloitte Global COVID-19 hospitality sentiment survey
Increased training and education on health and safety
practices6% - 11% 29% 55%
Automation to contactless processes (e.g. Mobile to check
in/out, keyless entry, gourmet food dispensers etc.)3% 6% 17% 20% 55%
Reconfiguring public areas and furniture, to facilitate social
distancing measures2% 5% 14% 29% 51%
Plexiglass barriers to separate guests and staff (e.g. at hotel
reception)8% 10% 11% 26% 44%
PPE to all personal care kits to all entire workforce 7% 11% 20% 19% 42%
Limited entry to confined spaces (e.g. lifts limited to 4 persons) 5% 4% 21% 32% 39%
Use of electrostatic sprayers, which uniformly mist disinfectant
across wide areas15% 14% 23% 28% 20%
Thermal screening of entire workforce and incoming guests 20% 23% 21% 17% 19%
Use of ultraviolet light to sanitize surfaces and objects 19% 22% 29% 18% 12%
Other 51% 10% 30% 5% 5%
Low Impact
1
High Impact
52 3 4
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Distressed activity is expected to spike in Q4 2020 and Q1 2021
Hotel Sector | Distressed Activity
Source: Deloitte Global COVID-19 hospitality sentiment survey
12%
46%
32%
9%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Q3 2020 (July, August, September)
Q4 2020 (October, November, December)
Q1 2021 (January, February, March)
Q2 2021 onwards
Distressed Activity
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Google Trends
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Google searches begin to pick up but are still significantly below pre-COVID-19 levels
Google Trends | Interest in Malta
Source: Google trends
-
20
40
60
80
100
Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20
Ind
ex
UK's Google search for Malta
31%
-
20
40
60
80
100
Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20
Ind
ex
France's Google search for Malta
28%
-
20
40
60
80
100
Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20
Ind
ex
Italy's Google search for Malta
35%
-
20
40
60
80
100
Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20
Ind
ex
Germany's Google search for Malta
34%
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Consumption TrendsAs at 27th June Source: Deloitte Global State of Consumer Tracker
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An ideal platform to track post-COVID-19 consumer behaviour trends across the world
Deloitte State of Consumer Tracker
Source: Deloitte State of Consumer Tracker
https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/retail-distribution/consumer-behavior-trends-state-of-the-consumer-tracker.html
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With the progressive decline in number of daily cases, anxiety levels are steadily improving across all geographies
Global Anxiety Levels
Source: Deloitte State of Consumer Tracker
8%
(4%)
(7%)
(21%)(22%)
(21%)
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
19-Apr 03-May 16-May 30-May 13-Jun 27-Jun
(%)
France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain UK Average
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Although improving, concerns about well-being remain very high across all countries
Consumer Concerns | Physical Well-being
Source: Deloitte State of Consumer Tracker
51%
44%
49%
45%
54%
46%
41%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
19 Apr 2020 03 May 2020 16 May 2020 30 May 2020 13 Jun 2020 27 Jun 2020
%
All 18-34 35-55 55+
72% 74% 76%
67%
42% 43% 43% 41% 39% 41% 43%
36%
28% 31%
28% 25%
38% 40% 38% 37% 42% 43%
47%
37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
All 18-34 35-55 55+
27/06/2020
%
Spain France Italy Netherlands Germany UK
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70% improvement in number of consumers feeling safer to go to physical stores
Consumer Concerns | Feel safe going to the store
Source: Deloitte State of Consumer Tracker
36%
56%
32%
54%
34%
55%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
19 Apr 2020 03 May 2020 16 May 2020 30 May 2020 13 Jun 2020 27 Jun 2020
%
All 18-34 35-55 55+
52%
58%
47%
53%
59% 61%
54%
62% 60% 55%
59% 63% 62%
66% 63%
58%
47% 50%
47% 46% 50%
47%
53% 50%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
All 18-34 35-55 55+
27/06/2020
%
Spain France Italy Netherlands Germany UK
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Flight safety remains a concern across all age brackets and geographies
Consumer Concerns | Feel safe taking a flight
Source: Deloitte State of Consumer Tracker
23% 27%
30%
35%
22%
28%
17%
22%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
19 Apr 2020 03 May 2020 16 May 2020 30 May 2020 13 Jun 2020 27 Jun 2020
%
All 18-34 35-55 55+
24%
30%
23% 22%
39% 42%
38% 39%
30%
36%
31%
27%
23%
32%
26%
15%
22%
36%
24%
13%
24%
32%
26%
16%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
All 18-34 35-55 55+
27/06/2020
%
Spain France Italy Netherlands Germany UK
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Propensity to spend on travel is steadily improving across all age brackets - Negative responses still exceed positive responses
Net Spending Intent | Travel
Source: Deloitte State of Consumer Tracker
(55%)
(25%)
(42%)
(7%)
(53%)
(71%)
(24%)
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%19 Apr 2020 03 May 2020 16 May 2020 30 May 2020 13 Jun 2020 27 Jun 2020
%
All 18-34 35-55 55+
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Propensity to travel is progressively aligning across geographies
Net Spending Intent | Travel by country
Source: Deloitte State of Consumer Tracker
(64%)
(32%)
(44%)
(23%)
(22%)
(30%)
(24%)
(63%)
(25%)
(67%)
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%19 Apr 2020 03 May 2020 16 May 2020 30 May 2020 13 Jun 2020 27 Jun 2020
%
Spain France Italy Netherlands Germany UK
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Notwithstanding improved disposition to travel, intentions to book remain fairly flat
Travel | Planning to book an international flight
Source: Deloitte State of Consumer Tracker
16%
19%
25%
27%
17%
19%
9%
13%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
19 Apr 2020 03 May 2020 16 May 2020 30 May 2020 13 Jun 2020 27 Jun 2020
%
All 18-34 35-55 55+
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Planned booking intent is fairly aligned across geographies
Travel | Planning to book an international flight by country
Source: Deloitte State of Consumer Tracker
15%
16%
22% 22%
11%
19%
13%
21%
16%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
19 Apr 2020 03 May 2020 16 May 2020 30 May 2020 13 Jun 2020 27 Jun 2020
%
Spain France Italy Netherland Germany UK
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Consumers are steadily feeling less concerned about eating out
Consumer Concerns | Feel safe going to a restaurant
Source: Deloitte State of Consumer Tracker
28%
40%
36%
47%
27%
39%
25%
35%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
30 May 2020 13 Jun 2020 27 Jun 2020
%
All 18-34 35-55 55+
38%
44%
38% 34%
39% 43%
35% 39%
43%
49%
43% 40%
50%
56%
48% 48%
40%
49%
41%
33% 29%
40%
31%
18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
All 18-34 35-55 55+
27/06/2020
%
Spain France Italy Netherlands Germany UK
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Younger people are clearly more prepared to eat out
Net Spending Intent | Take-Out / Restaurants
Source: Deloitte State of Consumer Tracker
(15%)
8%
(35%)
(54%)
(7%)
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
19 Apr 2020 03 May 2020 16 May 2020 30 May 2020 13 Jun 2020 27 Jun 2020
%
All 18-34 35-55 55+
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Evident alignment of trends across geographies
Net Spending Intent | Take-Out / Restaurants by country
Source: Deloitte State of Consumer Tracker
(49%)
(9%)
(36%)
(8%)
(41%)
(25%)
-
(9%)(10%)
(50%)
(11%)
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%19 Apr 2020 03 May 2020 16 May 2020 30 May 2020 13 Jun 2020 27 Jun 2020
%
Spain France Italy Netherlands Germany UK
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People are steadily becoming more comfortable with the idea of staying in a hotel – 50% improvement
Consumer Concerns| Feel safe staying in a hotel
Source: Deloitte State of Consumer Tracker
27%
41%
33%
48%
21%
36%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
19 Apr 2020 03 May 2020 16 May 2020 30 May 2020 13 Jun 2020 27 Jun 2020
%
All 18-34 35-55 55+
33% 36%
32% 31%
50% 53%
46%
51%
43%
50%
44%
39%
49%
57%
51%
42%
36%
52%
37%
26%
32%
39%
33%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
All 18-34 35-55 55+
27/06/2020
%
Spain France Italy Netherlands Germany UK
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Younger people are clearly more prepared to plan to book – other age brackets also improving
Travel | Planning to book a hotel
Source: Deloitte State of Consumer Tracker
22%
35%
30%
42%
37%
16%
29%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
19 Apr 2020 03 May 2020 16 May 2020 30 May 2020 13 Jun 2020 27 Jun 2020
%
All 18-34 35-55 55+
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UK residents are still the most reluctant to consider booking a hotel
Travel | Planning to book a hotel by country
Source: Deloitte State of Consumer Tracker
23%
35%
30%
40%
18%
38%
19%
36%
24%
31%
17%
29%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
19 Apr 2020 03 May 2020 16 May 2020 30 May 2020 13 Jun 2020 27 Jun 2020
%
Spain France Italy Netherland Germany UK
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More than 50% increase in percentage number of people prepared to book private accommodation
Travel | Planning to book private accommodation
Source: Deloitte State of Consumer Tracker
20%
32% 28%
44%
21%
33%
13%
23%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
19 Apr 2020 03 May 2020 16 May 2020 30 May 2020 13 Jun 2020 27 Jun 2020
%
All 18-34 35-55 55+
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Intention to rent a car has remained relatively flat across all age brackets
Travel | Planning to rent a car
Source: Deloitte State of Consumer Tracker
13%
15%
21%
26%
14%
16%
6% 7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
19 Apr 2020 03 May 2020 16 May 2020 30 May 2020 13 Jun 2020 27 Jun 2020
%
All 18-34 35-55 55+
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Pursuing Accelerated Recovery
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Economic impact of a more accelerated recovery is potentially enormous and stakeholders need to pursue all options of achieving this goal
Hospitality Trends | Recovery of Malta’s Inbound Tourism
Source: Deloitte estimates
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€(000s) Scn1 Scn2 Scn3 Scn4
Cumulative Tourists
Illustrative Recovery Pace 15% 25% 35% 40%
2020 1,070 1,070 1,070 1,070
2021 1,610 1,745 2,015 2,150
2022 2,150 2,420 2,700 2,700
2023 2,690 2,700 2,700 2,700
2024 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700
Tourist Expenditure
Illustrative spend per guest night 115 115 115 115
2020 861,350 861,350 861,350 861,350
2021 1,296,050 1,404,725 1,622,075 1,730,750
2022 1,730,750 1,948,100 2,173,500 2,173,500
2023 2,165,450 2,173,500 2,173,500 2,173,500
2024 2,173,500 2,173,500 2,173,500 2,173,500
Lost Tourist Expenditure
2020 (1,312,150) (1,312,150) (1,312,150) (1,312,150)
2021 (877,450) (768,775) (551,425) (442,750)
2022 (442,750) (225,400) - -
2023 (8,050) - - -
2024 - - - -
Total (2,640,400) (2,306,325) (1,863,575) (1,754,900)
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Potential Incentive Tool
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A form of travel discount card could be used to help stimulate demand
Potential Incentive Tool
Travel Discount Card to be used at:
Retail Outlets Hotels
Restaurants
Gozo Ferry
Local TransportHarbourCruises
Historical Attractions
Events
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