Data Storage Trends and Technologies
Mike LeonhardtStorage Tek, 1 Storage Tek Dr, Louisville CO 80028-2129
Phone: +1-303-673-5627, FAX: +1-303-673-7967E-mail: [email protected]
Presented at the THIC Meeting at the Hilton San Diego/Del Mar
Del Mar CA 92014-1901on January 22, 2002
Logo of Your organization
Data Storage Trends and Data Storage Trends and TechnologiesTechnologies
Mike LeonhardtStorageTek
1 StorageTek Dr.,Louisville, CO 80028-2129
303.673.5627, fax 303.673.7967, [email protected]
presented at the THIC meeting, Del Mar Hilton, Del Mar, CA January 22, 2002
2002 Storage Technology Corp. all rights reserved
OutlineOutlineTechnical Progress –Areal Density Trends
Economic Progress –Price Trends
Technologies–Current–New
Conclusions
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Technical ProgressTechnical Progress
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
GA Year
Are
al D
ensi
ty (G
b/in
2 )
Parallel Track Longitudinal Tape
Narrow Track Longitudinal TapeHelical Scan Tape
Magnetic Disk
Optical Disk
Areal Density TrendsAreal Density TrendsProbe
Volumetric Optical
?
Best in class products/product roadmaps
Tape Demos
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022GA Year
Are
al D
ensi
ty (G
b/in
2 )
Parallel Track Longitudinal Tape
Narrow Track Longitudinal Tape
Helical Scan Tape
Magnetic Disk
Optical Disk
Superparamagnetic Effect
Probe Contact Area Viability
Atom Surface Density
Advanced Areal Density TrendsAdvanced Areal Density Trends
Atom Level Storage
Probe
Volumetric
Optical
?
?
?
Tape Demos
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Economic ProgressEconomic Progress
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Storage Subsystem Price Trends(OEM price/equiv. unless otherwise noted; no capacity compression or utilization factors)
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
GA year
Pric
e (O
EM/In
tegr
ator
- $/
GB
)
Tape Drives
Tape Drives + 100 Tapes
Tape Media Only
Enterprise Class disk subsystem - performance
low
average
average
low
Performance Disk Drives (IDC)
Desktop Disk Drives (IDC)
Enterprise Class disk subsystem - capacity
Optical Disk Subsystems (IDC)
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Storage Subsystem Price Trends(OEM price/equiv. unless otherwise noted; no capacity compression or utilization factors)
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
GA year
Pric
e (O
EM/In
tegr
ator
- $/
GB
)
Tape Drives
Tape Drives + 100 Tapes
Tape Media Only
Enterprise Class disk subsystem - performance
low
average
average
low
Performance Disk Drives (IDC)
Desktop Disk Drives (IDC)
Enterprise Class disk subsystem - capacity
Optical Disk Subsystems (IDC)
Disk Systems
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Storage Subsystem Price Trends(OEM price/equiv. unless otherwise noted; no capacity compression or utilization factors)
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
GA year
Pric
e (O
EM/In
tegr
ator
- $/
GB
)
Tape Drives
Tape Drives + 100 Tapes
Tape Media Only
Enterprise Class disk subsystem - performance
low
average
average
low
Performance Disk Drives (IDC)
Desktop Disk Drives (IDC)
Enterprise Class disk subsystem - capacity
Optical Disk Subsystems (IDC)
Disk Systems
Tape Systems
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Storage Subsystem Price Trends(OEM price/equiv. unless otherwise noted; no capacity compression or utilization factors)
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
GA year
Pric
e (O
EM/In
tegr
ator
- $/
GB
)
Tape Drives
Tape Drives + 100 Tapes
Tape Media Only
Enterprise Class disk subsystem - performance
low
average
average
low
Performance Disk Drives (IDC)
Desktop Disk Drives (IDC)
Enterprise Class disk subsystem - capacity
Optical Disk Subsystems (IDC)
Disk Systems
Tape Systems
Optical Disk
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Storage Subsystem Price Trends(OEM price/equiv. unless otherwise noted; no capacity compression or utilization factors)
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
GA year
Pric
e (O
EM/In
tegr
ator
- $/
GB
)
Tape Drives
Tape Drives + 100 Tapes
Tape Media Only
Enterprise Class disk subsystem - performance
low
average
average
low
Performance Disk Drives (IDC)
Desktop Disk Drives (IDC)
Enterprise Class disk subsystem - capacity
Optical Disk Subsystems (IDC)
Disk Systems
Tape Systems
Optical Disk MEMS/Probe
New Technology “Guess”
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Storage Subsystem Price Trends(OEM price/equiv. unless otherwise noted; no capacity compression or utilization factors)
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
GA year
Pric
e (O
EM/In
tegr
ator
- $/
GB
)
Tape Drives
Tape Drives + 100 Tapes
Tape Media Only
Enterprise Class disk subsystem - performance
low
average
average
low
Performance Disk Drives (IDC)
Desktop Disk Drives (IDC)
Enterprise Class disk subsystem - capacity
Optical Disk Subsystems (IDC)
Disk Systems
Tape Systems
Optical Disk MEMS/Probe
Enhanced Optical Disk
New Technology “Guess”
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Storage Subsystem Price Trends(OEM price/equiv. unless otherwise noted; no capacity compression or utilization factors)
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
GA year
Pric
e (O
EM/In
tegr
ator
- $/
GB
)
Tape Drives
Tape Drives + 100 Tapes
Tape Media Only
Enterprise Class disk subsystem - performance
low
average
average
low
Performance Disk Drives (IDC)
Desktop Disk Drives (IDC)
Enterprise Class disk subsystem - capacity
Optical Disk Subsystems (IDC)
Disk Systems
Tape Systems
Optical Disk MEMS/Probe
Enhanced Optical Disk
Holographic
New Technology “Guess”
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Technologies Technologies ---- CurrentCurrent
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Magnetic Disk Magnetic Disk
Technology leaderAggressive storage density growth rate–>8 x 106 density growth since the original “RAMAC”
A “spoiler” for other storage technologiesContinued areal density progress influenced by superparamagnetic effect–New approaches to media, heads required
Near term solutions to 100 Gb/in2
Support to 1 Tb/in2?Consumer products effect development, market, cost
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
New Head, Media TechnologyNew Head, Media Technology
IBM Corp.
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Density AdvancesDensity Advances100 - 200 Gb/in2
–New exchanged coupled mediaAntiferromagnetically coupled (AFM) layersUses thin Ruthenium separation layer termed: “pixie dust”Supports 150 Gb/in2?
–Add higher coercivity media and 10:1 bit aspect ratio for 200 Gb/in2?
To 1 Tb/in2
–Use perpendicular recording–Further increase media coercivity
May require “thermal assist” to reduce coercivity and the magnetic field required for the head to write– HAMR (heat assisted magnetic recording) -- new ATP research grant
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Density AdvancesDensity AdvancesTo 1 Tb/in2 (continued)
Today’s magneto-optical drives use both magnetic head and laser heating
–Use patterned media
Beyond 1 Tb/in2
–Look to the alternate storage technologiesProbeVolumetric optical (e.g. holography)Atomic level
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Magnetic TapeMagnetic TapeTechnology follower - areal density trend lags disk– Increased defect tolerance–Uses higher media surface area to compete
Will continue to leverage off of disk technology Opportunity for more aggressive operating pointsRecent advanced media announcements–Advanced operating point demonstrated–Multi-TB support
Holding on to cost advantage over other storage subsystems types but under pressure
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
GA Year vs Areal Density
1
10
100
1000
10000
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
GA Year
Are
al D
ensi
ty (M
b/in
2)
parallel track longitudinal: 1/2"narrow track longitudinal: 1/4" - 8 mm 1/2" cartridge
helical scan: 4 mm 8 mm 1/2" 19 mm
NSIC Tape Roadmap
AME+ media Technology
Demos Product?
TapeTape Areal Density Tends
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Media improvements are key to tape drive advancement–Smoother, cleaner, quieter, increased mechanical stablity,
fewer/smaller defectsRecent announcements–Sony: 6.5, 16.4 Gb/in2 recording density demonstrations
(helical scan)Off the trend linesMulti-TB cartridge support
–Fuji: Targeting 10x tape capacity improvement -- 1 TB
MediaMedia
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Technologies Technologies ---- NewNew
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
MEMSMEMS--Probe TechnologyProbe Technology“Disk drive array on a chip”Combines probe storage with Micro Electro-Mechanical System (MEMS)Magnetic disk storage densities and beyond10x performance disk’s transaction rate Positioned between solid state memory and performance magnetic disk in the storage hierarchySmall size -- good volumetrics, low powerHighly parallel architecturePrototypes in 2002?Commercial feasibility, reliability TBD
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Prototype MEMSPrototype MEMS--Probe Storage DeviceProbe Storage Device
Electro
nics
TipArrays
MediaCoating on
Bottom Surface
1 cm
1 cm
2 mm
Electro
nics
Electro
nicsMedia
Sled
Probe Tip Pitch100µ x 100µ
Sled motion - 100µ x 100µ
media
proximalprobe
tip
XYZ movablesuspension
Move media inX or in X-Y
Move probe head inZ and Y orZ and fine Y
Large Array (>1000) of MEMS actuated Tips
Reliability (like RAID)High Data RateLow Access TimeLow Power
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02LLL. Richard Carley, Carnege Mellon Univ.
Development StatusDevelopment StatusOngoing Research–MEMS structure
Probe organizationReliability
–Recording process–Architecture
Organizations–US government -- DARPA contracts–Business -- HP, IBM, Siemens, Kionix, Nanochip–Universities -- Carnegie Mellon, CalTech, Cornell
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Optical DiskOptical DiskMany product formats -- all removable media–14”, 12”, 5.25”, 120 mm, 3.5”, 80 mm, 2.5”, <2.5” diameter
Revenue dominated by DVD/CD drives –Low cost, low-mid performance
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Optical DiskOptical DiskCD/DVD–Consumer products drive development, market, cost–Capacity, data rate multiplying technologies in development–Very low cost DVD-based storage anticipated
Magneto-Optical (MO)–Many new MO drive technology enhancements proposed–Will forecast limited revenue growth support the required
R&D?
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
DVD Technology DriversDVD Technology DriversConsumer products
8 / 01 M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Enhanced Optical DiskEnhanced Optical DiskDVD technology extensions proposed and under development to accelerate the roadmap–Capacity
Multi-layer, Multi-level/Gray scale, Near field optics–Data rate
Multi-spot -- used in current CD productBase technology developers (selected)–3rd generation DVD
Sony, Matsushita, Hitachi, Fujitsu, Sanyo, PioneerPhillips
Technology extension developers (selected)–4th generation +
SonyPhilips, Zen Research, Constellation 3DCalimetrics M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Media’s key, recent new types, potentially very low cost ($1/TB)Magnetic disk densities and beyondHigh capacity (TB’s) High data rate (100’s MB/s)Page organized–New architecture–Good access performance–Optical computing potential
Possibilities: removable, re-writable? media Commercial feasibility is TBD
Holographic TechnologyHolographic Technology
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Holographic StorageHolographic Storage
2D bit data page image
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Holographic StorageHolographic Storage
Implementation - why now?–Media material has always been the key gating factor
Recent new developments -- in both crystal and photo-polymer media typesStorage density with sensitivity and stability
–Required critical custom components ($$$)Critical components now leverage lower cost consumer product technology– Spatial light modulator (from Laptop, PDA displays)– Detector array (from digital cameras)– Laser (from 2nd generation “DVD-burners”)
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
Holographic StorageHolographic Storage
Media material suppliers– Imation–Aprilis–Bayer
Research and development– IBM– InPhase Technologies (Lucent technology)–Aprilis (Polaroid technology)–Cal Tech–Stanford University–NSIC collaborations -- HDSS, PRISM
Initial products in 2-3 years?M. Leonhardt 1-22-02
ConclusionsConclusionsTraditional magnetic recording has proven to be very scalable -- but there are “limits”
Commercialized new technologies must deliver a significant advantage over existing storage approaches –Rule of Thumb: order of magnitude improvement in one or
more key metricsCost, performance, volumetric efficiency, etc.
New technologies must support a product roadmap with sustained advantages
M. Leonhardt 1-22-02