LegendLEGENDThese are the time series of some of the variables
presented in the publishings of the Consensus Forecast from Jan
2000 to April 2015.The survey firm asks martket's agents or
financial institutions about their forecasts for the more relevant
macroeconomic variables, such as GDP and inflation growth rate,
unemployment rate, current account, interest rates, ecc.Then it
collects the answers and publishes their mean (and other measures),
thus we can take the mean of the individual forecasts as the best
proxy of what the market expects to happen in the future.With
monthly frequency Consensus Forecast publishes the data of
SHORT-HORIZON forecasts.That means the selected variable's forecast
for the CURRENT YEAR (T) and the NEXT YEAR (T+1)> Regarding the
short-horizon forecast of the inflation (year-on-year) growth rate
[US - CPI (short-horizon)], you have the monthly time series
of:MEAN of the individual responsesHIGHEST VALUE among the
individual responsesLOWEST VALUE among the individual
responsesSTANDARD DEVIATION (STD) of the individual responses>
Regarding the short-horizon forecast of the 10-year interest rate
[US - 10y Rate (short-horizon)], you have the monthly time series
of the MEAN of the forecasted value 1 year ahead.With semiannual
frequency (in the numbers of April and October) Consensus Forecast
publishes the data of DISTANT-HORIZON forecasts.That means the
selected variable's forecast for the CURRENT YEAR (T), the
following YEARS (T+1 - T+2 - T+3 - T+4 - T+5) and the AVERAGE
beetween T+6 and T+10.> You have the time series of the MEAN of
these forecasts for the GDP and INFLATION (CPI) year-on-year growth
rate and the 10-YEAR INTEREST RATE.For more information take as a
reference the number of October 2014 [CF_2014 O], containing also
the long-term forecasts, presented in the uploaded materials.
US - GDPGDPTT+1T+2T+3T+4T+5Avg (T+
6-10)Apr-004.63.12.74.14.63.13Oct-005.23.63.333.53.33.2Apr-011.73.13.53.23.33.23.1Oct-0111.23.63.43.33.23.2Apr-022.63.53.43.23.13.13.1Oct-022.433.53.13.233.1Apr-032.33.63.23.33.13.13.1Oct-032.743.53.33.33.23.2Apr-044.63.73.63.43.13.33.2Oct-044.43.53.43.23.13.13.2Apr-053.73.43.33.23.23.23.2Oct-053.53.33.23.23.23.13.1Apr-063.32.93.23.13.13.13.1Oct-063.42.63.13.23.133Apr-072.32.93.23.132.93Oct-0722.42.92.92.92.72.7Apr-081.32.12.72.82.82.72.7Oct-081.402.73.13.12.92.8Apr-09-2.71.83.53.73.22.82.5Oct-09-2.52.63.13.33.232.6Apr-103.23.13.43.232.82.5Oct-102.72.43.33.43.12.92.6Apr-112.93.33.33.432.72.5Oct-111.71.92.83.13.12.82.4Apr-122.32.53.13.132.62.4Oct-122.122.83.12.82.72.5Apr-132.12.73.12.92.72.62.4Oct-131.62.63.132.82.62.5Apr-142.7332.82.62.52.5Oct-142.23.132.82.62.42.4Apr-152.92.82.62.52.42.42.3
US - CPICPITT+1T+2T+3T+4T+5Avg (T+
6-10)Apr-002.82.52.62.52.52.52.6Oct-003.32.72.62.72.62.62.7Apr-012.92.32.62.52.52.52.6Oct-0132.12.52.72.62.62.5Apr-021.52.42.52.42.52.52.5Oct-021.62.32.42.52.52.52.5Apr-032.422.42.42.42.52.4Oct-032.31.722.22.12.22.3Apr-041.91.92.12.12.22.12.3Oct-042.62.32.32.52.52.52.5Apr-052.72.42.42.42.52.52.4Oct-053.332.42.42.42.42.4Apr-062.92.32.32.32.32.32.4Oct-063.52.52.32.32.32.32.3Apr-072.12.22.32.22.22.22.1Oct-072.72.32.32.32.32.32.2Apr-083.62.32.22.22.22.22.2Oct-084.42.32.12.22.32.32.1Apr-09-0.71.62.12.22.42.52.5Oct-09-0.41.91.922.12.22.4Apr-102.11.92.22.12.22.22.3Oct-101.61.522.12.12.12.3Apr-112.72.122.22.22.32.2Oct-113.12.12.12.32.32.22.2Apr-122.32.12.22.32.32.32.3Oct-122.122.32.32.42.42.4Apr-131.92.12.22.22.32.32.2Oct-131.51.82.12.32.32.32.3Apr-141.71.92.22.32.32.32.2Oct-141.81.82.12.22.32.22.2Apr-150.12.22.32.32.32.32.2
US - 10y Rate10y RateTT+1T+2T+3T+4T+5Avg (T+
6-10)Apr-006.36.46.46.1665.9Oct-0066.26.46.365.86Apr-014.85.15.65.75.65.65.6Oct-014.65.15.45.85.85.85.8Apr-025.35.75.95.95.95.95.7Oct-024.14.85.35.55.65.65.5Apr-034.14.65.35.65.95.85.9Oct-034.44.95.15.25.35.45.4Apr-044.34.85.25.35.45.45.3Oct-044.65.15.55.65.75.85.9Apr-054.75.25.65.75.75.75.7Oct-054.64.95.25.35.45.55.5Apr-0655.15.35.45.45.45.5Oct-064.855.25.45.35.35.3Apr-074.84.95.35.25.25.25.3Oct-074.74.95.25.25.25.25.2Apr-083.64.14.95.15.15.15.1Oct-083.64.14.74.955.15.1Apr-092.83.54.54.85.15.35.5Oct-093.54.14.54.85.15.35.5Apr-1044.55.15.25.45.55.4Oct-102.73.54.44.74.95.25.4Apr-113.64.34.95.15.45.55.3Oct-112.22.83.64.24.64.95Apr-122.32.83.64.24.85.25.2Oct-121.82.22.93.94.64.95Apr-132.12.63.54.34.84.95Oct-132.83.23.84.5555Apr-1433.54.44.854.94.9Oct-142.83.34.14.44.54.54.5Apr-152.22.83.94.14.24.34.3
US - CPI (short-horizon)CPI (short)Mean TMean T+1High THigh
T+1Low TLow T+1STD TSTD
T+1Jan-002.62.52.93.12.21.70.20.3Feb-002.62.53.13.32.21.60.20.4Mar-002.62.53.13.32.31.60.20.4Apr-002.82.53.13.32.31.80.20.3May-0032.53.432.51.60.30.3Jun-003.12.63.43.12.71.70.20.3Jul-003.22.63.43.32.81.20.10.5Aug-003.22.63.33.331.20.10.4Sep-003.32.83.54.332.10.10.5Oct-003.32.73.53.43.22.10.10.3Nov-003.42.73.53.43.22.20.10.3Dec-003.42.73.53.43.22.20.10.3Jan-012.72.43.13.22.11.90.30.4Feb-012.62.43.53.62.11.80.30.4Mar-012.72.33.23.22.31.80.20.4Apr-012.92.33.42.82.51.80.30.3May-013.12.53.63.52.61.50.20.4Jun-013.22.63.73.82.61.90.20.5Jul-013.22.43.43.331.90.10.4Aug-013.22.43.63.72.81.80.10.5Sep-013.12.33.63.72.91.80.20.5Oct-0132.13.22.72.71.20.10.3Nov-012.91.93.12.62.61.40.10.3Dec-012.91.732.52.71.10.10.4Jan-021.62.52.43.21.11.70.30.4Feb-021.42.42.33.10.81.70.40.3Mar-021.42.42.23.10.91.60.30.4Apr-021.52.42.33.11.11.40.30.4May-021.62.42.43.11.11.40.20.4Jun-021.72.52.43.21.41.40.20.4Jul-021.72.523.21.41.40.20.4Aug-021.62.41.93.21.21.60.10.5Sep-021.62.31.93.21.31.60.10.4Oct-021.62.31.83.41.31.70.10.4Nov-021.62.21.731.41.60.10.3Dec-021.62.11.62.61.31.60.10.3Jan-032.22.32.72.81.61.50.30.3Feb-032.22.22.62.81.51.50.20.3Mar-033.22.12.73.11.81.50.20.4Apr-032.422.831.81.40.30.5May-032.422.82.81.91.20.20.5Jun-032.31.92.72.71.810.30.5Jul-032.21.82.62.71.80.90.20.5Aug-032.21.72.42.71.910.10.5Sep-032.31.82.42.52.21.10.10.4Oct-032.31.72.42.52.110.10.4Nov-032.31.72.42.62.11.20.10.4Dec-032.31.82.42.32.31.100.3Jan-041.62.12.33.21.11.30.30.6Feb-041.51.92.23.21.10.80.30.6Mar-041.71.92.23.31.10.80.30.6Apr-041.91.92.32.81.10.80.20.5May-042.22.12.52.71.81.30.20.4Jun-042.42.32.72.91.91.70.20.3Jul-042.62.32.93.11.91.70.20.3Aug-042.72.433.41.91.70.20.4Sep-042.72.42.93.42.21.70.10.4Oct-042.62.32.93.42.51.80.10.4Nov-042.62.42.73.42.51.800.4Dec-042.72.52.73.42.52.10.10.3Jan-052.52.43.43.921.60.30.4Feb-052.42.22.82.921.60.20.4Mar-052.52.43.4421.60.30.5Apr-052.72.43.142.41.70.20.5May-052.82.53.142.51.80.20.4Jun-052.92.53.23.52.61.80.10.4Jul-0532.53.23.52.61.80.10.4Aug-0532.53.23.22.71.90.10.4Sep-053.22.844.91.82.10.40.7Oct-053.333.63.53.12.50.10.3Nov-053.433.73.93.22.50.10.4Dec-053.433.73.73.12.30.10.3Jan-062.82.33.83.12.11.40.40.4Feb-062.92.33.73.22.21.10.30.4Mar-062.92.33.73.221.20.30.4Apr-062.92.33.83.22.31.20.30.4May-063.22.43.83.32.60.90.20.5Jun-063.42.53.83.531.70.20.4Jul-063.42.53.83.531.30.20.4Aug-063.62.83.93.43.22.20.10.3Sep-063.62.73.83.43.41.70.10.4Oct-063.52.53.83.33.31.50.10.4Nov-063.42.33.73.23.31.60.10.3Dec-063.323.52.831.50.10.3Jan-071.82.32.63.31.31.60.30.4Feb-071.72.32.23.31.11.80.30.3Mar-071.92.32.13.31.41.50.20.4Apr-072.12.22.73.31.51.70.30.4May-072.42.32.83.31.51.70.30.4Jun-072.62.43.13.31.91.60.20.4Jul-072.72.43.23.421.60.30.5Aug-072.82.43.23.42.41.60.20.4Sep-072.72.32.93.12.41.20.10.4Oct-072.72.32.93.12.41.20.10.4Nov-072.82.62.93.52.71.70.10.5Dec-072.82.62.93.52.61.70.10.5Jan-082.82.13.6321.10.40.5Feb-082.923.432.11.10.30.4Mar-083.42.34.43.72.51.10.50.6Apr-083.62.34.13.62.91.20.30.5May-083.82.44.13.631.50.30.6Jun-0842.54.83.63.41.60.30.6Jul-084.32.85.33.83.61.60.40.6Aug-084.52.95.34.83.61.60.40.7Sep-084.52.94.84.33.91.80.20.7Oct-084.42.34.63.5410.20.7Nov-084.21.44.52.83.8-0.90.20.9Dec-0840.34.31.73.8-1.60.21Jan-09-0.521.23.3-2.20.70.90.7Feb-09-0.91.70.73.1-1.90.30.60.8Mar-09-0.91.50.53.1-2-0.10.50.8Apr-09-0.71.60.53.2-1.40.40.50.7May-09-0.81.60.33.1-1.30.70.40.6Jun-09-0.61.70.73.2-1.10.70.40.6Jul-09-0.61.80.13.7-10.90.30.6Aug-09-0.51.8-0.33.5-0.90.90.20.6Sep-09-0.51.9-0.33.5-0.80.90.10.6Oct-09-0.41.9-0.33.5-0.80.90.10.6Nov-09-0.42-0.33.4-0.710.10.6Dec-09-0.42.1-0.33.2-0.51.20.10.5Jan-102.21.93.341.20.40.50.8Feb-102.323.43.91.50.40.40.8Mar-102.21.933.91.50.50.40.8Apr-102.11.933.91.60.80.30.7May-1021.92.63.81.60.60.20.7Jun-101.71.72.331.30.40.20.6Jul-101.71.52.331.40.30.20.7Aug-101.61.41.92.71.30.20.20.6Sep-101.61.41.82.71.30.80.10.5Oct-101.61.51.82.71.40.90.10.5Nov-101.61.41.72.51.50.90.10.4Dec-101.61.51.72.41.5100.4Jan-111.71.82.43.41.10.80.40.6Feb-111.91.92.83.41.210.30.5Mar-112.322.93.61.61.30.40.5Apr-112.72.13.33.81.71.50.30.6May-1132.13.33.51.81.40.30.6Jun-1132.13.43.32.71.40.20.5Jul-113.12.13.432.81.50.10.4Aug-1132.13.32.92.71.60.10.4Sep-113.12.13.23.52.70.90.10.5Oct-113.12.13.33.32.81.30.10.5Nov-113.22.13.33.53.11.50.10.4Dec-113.22.13.33.531.40.10.5Jan-121.91.92.941.10.50.40.6Feb-12222.941.10.50.30.6Mar-122.322.94.11.10.50.30.7Apr-122.32.12.94.121.20.20.6May-122.32.12.94.121.30.20.5Jun-122.222.84.21.71.20.20.5Jul-1221.92.53.61.70.60.20.5Aug-12222.23.61.80.60.10.5Sep-12222.32.71.81.40.10.3Oct-122.122.32.81.910.10.4Nov-122.122.231.91.20.10.4Dec-122.122.42.721.30.10.4Jan-131.92.12.43.11.31.60.30.4Feb-131.82.22.33.11.31.60.30.3Mar-131.82.12.23.21.41.50.20.4Apr-131.92.12.53.21.41.50.20.4May-131.622.131.31.40.20.4Jun-131.51.91.931.31.40.20.4Jul-131.51.91.831.31.30.20.4Aug-131.51.91.72.91.31.40.10.4Sep-131.41.71.72.41.41.40.10.3Oct-131.51.81.62.31.41.30.10.3Nov-131.51.81.62.41.41.300.3Dec-131.51.71.62.21.41.400.2Jan-141.61.62.22.41.31.50.20.3Feb-141.61.92.12.41.31.50.20.2Mar-141.7222.51.31.40.20.3Apr-141.71.922.51.41.50.10.3May-141.81.91.92.31.51.40.10.2Jun-141.81.922.31.51.50.10.2Jul-1422.12.42.51.61.50.10.3Aug-141.92.12.12.61.61.60.10.2Sep-141.9222.41.71.40.10.2Oct-141.81.822.31.71.30.10.3Nov-141.71.61.92.11.60.90.10.3Dec-141.71.31.81.91.50.20.10.4Jan-150.72.21.53.6-0.310.50.4Feb-150.32.21.83.6-0.70.50.50.5Mar-150.32.11.22.8-0.70.60.40.4Apr-150.12.20.62.8-0.41.80.20.2
US - 10y Rate (short-horizon)10y Rate (short)Mean 1 year
aheadJan-006.5Feb-006.6Mar-006.6Apr-006.4May-006.5Jun-006.5Jul-006.4Aug-006.3Sep-006.1Oct-006.2Nov-006.1Dec-005.8Jan-015.2Feb-015.3Mar-015.2Apr-015.1May-015.4Jun-015.4Jul-015.4Aug-015.4Sep-015.2Oct-015.1Nov-014.8Dec-015Jan-025.5Feb-025.4Mar-025.5Apr-025.7May-025.7Jun-025.7Jul-025.6Aug-025.2Sep-025Oct-024.8Nov-024.7Dec-024.7Jan-034.8Feb-034.8Mar-034.7Apr-034.6May-034.5Jun-034.3Jul-034.3Aug-034.8Sep-034.9Oct-034.9Nov-035Dec-035.1Jan-045.1Feb-045.1Mar-044.9Apr-044.8May-045.2Jun-045.3Jul-045.4Aug-045.4Sep-045.2Oct-045.1Nov-045Dec-045.1Jan-055.1Feb-055.1Mar-055.1Apr-055.2May-055.2Jun-054.9Jul-054.9Aug-055Sep-055Oct-054.9Nov-055.1Dec-055.1Jan-065.1Feb-065Mar-065Apr-065.1May-065.2Jun-065.3Jul-065.3Aug-065.3Sep-065.1Oct-065Nov-065Dec-064.8Jan-074.9Feb-075Mar-074.9Apr-074.9May-074.9Jun-075Jul-075.2Aug-075.1Sep-074.9Oct-074.9Nov-074.8Dec-074.5Jan-084.5Feb-084.1Mar-084.1Apr-084.1May-084.2Jun-084.3Jul-084.4Aug-084.5Sep-084.4Oct-084.1Nov-084.1Dec-083.5Jan-093.3Feb-093.5Mar-093.4Apr-093.5May-093.7Jun-094Jul-094.1Aug-094.2Sep-094.1Oct-094.1Nov-094.1Dec-094.1Jan-104.4Feb-104.5Mar-104.4Apr-104.5May-104.5Jun-104.3Jul-104Aug-103.9Sep-103.6Oct-103.5Nov-103.4Dec-103.5Jan-114.1Feb-114.1Mar-114.1Apr-114.3May-114.2Jun-114Jul-114.1Aug-113.6Sep-113Oct-112.8Nov-112.8Dec-112.7Jan-122.8Feb-122.6Mar-122.7Apr-122.8May-122.7Jun-122.6Jul-122.5Aug-122.3Sep-122.3Oct-122.2Nov-122.3Dec-122.3Jan-132.5Feb-132.5Mar-132.6Apr-132.6May-132.5Jun-132.6Jul-132.9Aug-133.1Sep-133.3Oct-133.2Nov-133.2Dec-133.3Jan-143.5Feb-143.5Mar-143.5Apr-143.5May-143.5Jun-143.5Jul-143.5Aug-143.5Sep-143.4Oct-143.3Nov-143.2Dec-143.1Jan-153Feb-152.8Mar-152.9Apr-152.8
DataGDPTT+1T+2T+3T+4T+5Avg (T+
6-10)4/1/004.63.12.74.14.63.1310/1/005.23.63.333.53.33.24/1/011.73.13.53.23.33.23.110/1/0111.23.63.43.33.23.24/1/022.63.53.43.23.13.13.110/1/022.433.53.13.233.14/1/032.33.63.23.33.13.13.110/1/032.743.53.33.33.23.24/1/044.63.73.63.43.13.33.210/1/044.43.53.43.23.13.13.24/1/053.73.43.33.23.23.23.210/1/053.53.33.23.23.23.13.14/1/063.32.93.23.13.13.13.110/1/063.42.63.13.23.1334/1/072.32.93.23.132.9310/1/0722.42.92.92.92.72.74/1/081.32.12.72.82.82.72.710/1/081.402.73.13.12.92.84/1/09-2.71.83.53.73.22.82.510/1/09-2.52.63.13.33.232.64/1/103.23.13.43.232.82.510/1/102.72.43.33.43.12.92.64/1/112.93.33.33.432.72.510/1/111.71.92.83.13.12.82.44/1/122.32.53.13.132.62.410/1/122.122.83.12.82.72.54/1/132.12.73.12.92.72.62.410/1/131.62.63.132.82.62.54/1/142.7332.82.62.52.510/1/142.23.132.82.62.42.44/1/152.92.82.62.52.42.42.3CPI
(INFLATION)TT+1T+2T+3T+4T+5Avg (T+
6-10)4/1/002.82.52.62.52.52.52.610/1/003.32.72.62.72.62.62.74/1/012.92.32.62.52.52.52.610/1/0132.12.52.72.62.62.54/1/021.52.42.52.42.52.52.510/1/021.62.32.42.52.52.52.54/1/032.422.42.42.42.52.410/1/032.31.722.22.12.22.34/1/041.91.92.12.12.22.12.310/1/042.62.32.32.52.52.52.54/1/052.72.42.42.42.52.52.410/1/053.332.42.42.42.42.44/1/062.92.32.32.32.32.32.410/1/063.52.52.32.32.32.32.34/1/072.12.22.32.22.22.22.110/1/072.72.32.32.32.32.32.24/1/083.62.32.22.22.22.22.210/1/084.42.32.12.22.32.32.14/1/09-0.71.62.12.22.42.52.510/1/09-0.41.91.922.12.22.44/1/102.11.92.22.12.22.22.310/1/101.61.522.12.12.12.34/1/112.72.122.22.22.32.210/1/113.12.12.12.32.32.22.24/1/122.32.12.22.32.32.32.310/1/122.122.32.32.42.42.44/1/131.92.12.22.22.32.32.210/1/131.51.82.12.32.32.32.34/1/141.71.92.22.32.32.32.210/1/141.81.82.12.22.32.22.24/1/150.12.22.32.32.32.32.2FORWARD
5Y5F4/1/005.68110/1/005.8244/1/015.44210/1/015.6414/1/026.26110/1/024.9284/1/035.22310/1/035.444/1/045.25110/1/045.1524/1/054.95710/1/054.5554/1/064.9610/1/064.7534/1/074.84610/1/075.0964/1/084.67710/1/084.964/1/093.88310/1/094.5644/1/105.51510/1/104.0014/1/115.02310/1/113.0334/1/123.59310/1/122.7824/1/133.10210/1/134.14/1/143.93810/1/143.3714/1/152.567beta
(from Wright paper)with Fisher
hyp.b01.981.56inflation0.931gdp0.10.17TP time series (according to
formula 2)TP series with formula: TP=fw-(b0 + b1*infl + b2*
gdp)10/1/006.7651.0661.0944/1/017.4331.0961.10310/1/016.3290.8170.8384/1/026.5510.9230.93710/1/025.9361.6461.6744/1/034.6760.3230.35810/1/035.7050.6080.6364/1/045.8691.0941.13610/1/045.4980.9881.034/1/056.030.5370.56510/1/055.8580.3320.3534/1/065.9940.0330.06810/1/066.0070.5310.5734/1/076.3680.3340.38310/1/075.0490.530.5934/1/085.8270.7070.77710/1/086.1750.3810.4584/1/097.2120.5510.60710/1/090.982-0.702-0.6534/1/101.9620.2380.29410/1/105.8081.2091.2794/1/113.779-0.222-0.15210/1/115.8440.6340.7044/1/124.106-1.273-1.20310/1/123.982-0.786-0.7094/1/132.965-1.7-1.63710/1/133.099-1.277-1.24/1/143.675-0.279-0.20210/1/143.809-0.431-0.3474/1/153.285-0.895-0.797