SLIDE 2
What We Did
On behalf of Walmart, Public Opinion Strategies and Momentum Analysis conducted a survey of N=1,250 women voters of whom N=380 are Walmart Moms.* The survey was conducted May 20-27, 2010 and was conducted online for two reasons:
1) To provide a cost-effective method of reaching enough women voters that would yield a significant cell size of Walmart Moms for analysis.
2) To provide a consistent sampling methodology
moving forward when we continue survey tracking only among Walmart Moms.
*Defined as women voters with children under the age of 18 living at home who have shopped and made a purchase at Walmart in the last month.
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Walmart Moms are…
Age
Ethnicity Household
Income Education
71% Aged 18-44
67% Caucasian
46% Under $50K
24% High School or less
29% Aged 45+
12% African-American 15% Hispanic
43% $50-$100K 11% Over $100K
40% College+ 36% Some College
SLIDE 5
Please indicate your support for each of the following groups.
The Tea Party Movement
Conservative religious groups
% Total Support
Environmentalist groups
The National Rifle Association
The Gay Rights movement
Other than their support for environmental groups, Walmart Moms are political middle-of-the-roaders.
Moderate
Conservative
Liberal
Ideology
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Walmart Moms are important because…
30% of all registered women voters
Roughly 16% of the electorate
In the 70 Battleground Congressional Districts for this fall’s election, there are
832 Walmart stores and clubs.
*These 70 Battleground Congressional Districts are listed in Appendix II.
“McCain didn’t just pick a politician who could appeal to Wal-Mart Moms. He picked a Wal-Mart Mom…” - William Kristol, 9/7/08
“Picture the Wal-Mart Mom as who the swing voter is.” – Democratic Pollster Celinda Lake
“For John McCain to keep [Ohio] red like George W. Bush did, he needs what his campaign would call Wal‐Mart moms.” ‐ CNN’s John King, 9/4/08
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39% 46%
Walmart Moms chose Barack Obama over John McCain in 2008.
Did you happen to vote in the 2008 election for President?
John McCain
Self-Reported 2008 Presidential Vote
Barack Obama
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53% 47%
Approve
Walmart Moms approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing.
What is your opinion on the job that Barack Obama is doing as President?
Disapprove
Barack Obama: Job Approval
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A majority of Walmart Moms want the government to do more.
Government is doing too many things better left to
businesses and individuals.
Government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of people
Switching topics...please read the pairs of statements below and check which comes closer to your point of view:
…or…
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39% 39% 44% 43%
Like most women voters, Walmart Moms tend to self-identify as Democrats.
In politics today, do you consider yourself ...A Republican, A Democrat ..or are you an Independent or some other party?
Party Identification
Walmart Moms Women Voters
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37% 40% 39% 37%
If the election for U.S. Congress were being held today, for whom would you vote in your district? The Republican Candidate, The Democratic Candidate, Another Candidate...or are you currently Undecided?
Generic Ballot
Walmart Moms Women Voters
unlike all women voters, Walmart Moms tilt towards a Republican candidate for Congress this November.
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38% 52%
They are far from enamored with the President’s new health care plan.
Do you – support or oppose – Barack Obama's health care plan that was recently passed by Congress and signed into law by the President.
Support Oppose
Opinion of President’s New Health Care Plan
14% Strongly
31% Strongly
SLIDE 17 SLIDE 17
Make things better
They think the new health care legislation will only make things worse for their personal or
family situation.
Make things worse
Or, will it make no difference one way or the other to your own personal or family situation?
And, when you think about your own personal or family situation, do you think this new health care legislation will…
Effect Of Health Care Plan On Personal/Family Situation
SLIDE 18 SLIDE 18
39%
61%
Approve
They disapprove of the job Congress is doing.
What is your opinion on the job that Congress is doing?
Disapprove
Congress: Job Approval
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And, more than six-in-ten think the longer Members of Congress serve the less they listen
to voters.
The longer they serve in Washington, the less they listen to the voters and
the more they become a part of what's wrong
Not sure
The longer they serve in Washington, the more they are able to get things
done for their district.
Which of the following comes closer to your opinion when you think about Members of Congress who represent you in Washington?
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61%
39%
How much have you personally, or has your household, been affected by the downturn in the economy?
The majority of Walmart Moms are personally squeezed by the economic downturn.
Affected Personally By Economic Downturn
A Great Deal/ Quite A Bit
Just Some/ Not At All
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34%
66%
Two-thirds of Walmart Moms are dissatisfied with their own financial situation.
How satisfied are you with your own financial situation today?
Satisfaction with Current Financial Situation
Satisfied Dissatisfied
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More Walmart Moms describe themselves as working or lower class, and almost half of them
feel at risk of falling out of that social class.
If you were asked to use one of these names for your social class, in which one would you say you belong?
Do you ever feel as if you're at risk of falling out of your current social class?
Yes No Yes No
Walmart Moms
Women Voters
Social Class Anxiety Self Identified Social Class
Walmart Moms Women Voters
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The cost of daily essentials, such as energy and groceries are key economic concerns for most
Walmart Moms.
Please rate how much each of the following items are economic concerns for you and your household. Use a scale of zero to ten where zero means it is not at all an economic concern and ten means it is a top economic concern for you and your household. Of course you can
choose any number between zero and ten.
Your mortgage or rental payments
Changes in the value of your investments, stocks, bonds, and mutual funds
Not having enough retirement savings
The fear of losing your job or being unemployed
Having too much credit card debt
Top Economic Concerns (% “8-10”)
The price of energy, including utilities and gasoline
The price of groceries and other essentials
The cost of health care
SLIDE 25 SLIDE 25
Please rate how much each of the following items are economic concerns for you and your household. Use a scale of zero to ten where zero means it is not at all an economic concern and ten means it is a top economic concern for you and your household. Of course you can
choose any number between zero and ten.
Almost half of all Walmart Moms
say six or more of the eight items tested are top
economic concerns for their
household.
% Saying 6-8 of 8 Items Tested Are Top Economic Concerns
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Walmart Moms are taking action to make ends meet.
Please indicate, over the last year, whether you have been doing each of the following things as a result of the downtown in the economy.
Using credit cards more often to pay for things
Putting off visits to the doctor or medical procedures
Putting off major repairs to your car or home
Considering downsizing to a less expensive house/ neighborhood
Using public transportation more to commute to work
% “Yes, Doing This”
Eating out less frequently
Making fewer or smaller charitable and religious donations
Traveling less or planning to travel less
Spending less on clothing and accessories
Spending less on out-of-home entertainment
Buying fewer or less expensive birthday or holiday gifts
SLIDE 27 SLIDE 27
Two-thirds of Walmart Moms say
they are taking penny-pincher
action on seven or more of the eleven
items tested. % Saying They Are Taking Action
On 7-11of 11 Items
Please indicate, over the last year, whether you have been doing each of the following things as a result of the downtown in the economy.
SLIDE 28 SLIDE 28
How much has the effect of the
downturn in the economy placed a
strain on your relationship with
your spouse, partner, or
significant other?
% A Great Deal/Quite a Bit – Women Voters
The economy is also placing a strain on Walmart Moms’ relationships.
% A Great Deal/Quite a Bit – Walmart Moms
N=348 women voters & N=102 Walmart Moms who are married or living with a significant other.
SLIDE 30
As we’ve seen in many elections—and Nov 2010 will likely be no different—understanding swing voters means understanding women, particularly mothers. Walmart Moms are cross-pressured and conflicted – they approve of President Obama and want to see a government that helps people rather than stays out of the way. Yet, these voters are strongly negative toward Congress and lean toward voting for Republicans in the Fall. Walmart Moms are the quintessential swing vote and they have personalized the nation’s economic struggles, impacting not only their financial well-being, but their personal relationships.
SLIDE 31
These women will carry a significant financial burden with them into the voting booth, affecting their political views and potentially determining the outcome of the election. At roughly 16% of the electorate, candidates ignore this key voting segment at their own peril. We will track how these voters process key debates this summer, such as the BP spill, important bills in Congress, and the heat of the 2010 midterm elections.
SLIDE 34 SLIDE 34
Profiling Walmart Moms Women Voters Total
Aged 18‐44 46%
Aged 45+ 54%
High School or less 25%
Some College 35%
College+ 40%
Income under $50K 50%
Income $50‐$100K 39%
Income over $100K 11%
Caucasian 75%
African‐American 10%
Hispanic 8%
Asian 4%
American Indian/Other 2%
Married/Living Together 64%
Not Married 36%
Conservative 34%
Moderate 42%
Liberal 24%
Walmart Moms Total
Aged 18‐44 71%
Aged 45+ 29%
High School or less 24%
Some College 36%
College+ 40%
Income under $50K 46%
Income $50‐$100K 43%
Income over $100K 11%
Caucasian 67%
African‐American 12%
Hispanic 15%
Asian 3%
American Indian/Other 2%
Married/Living Together 82%
Not Married 18%
Conservative 34%
Moderate 46%
Liberal 20%
SLIDE 35 SLIDE 35
Profiling Walmart Moms Women Voters Total
Voted for John McCain 38%
Voted for Barack Obama 48%
Student 8%
Homemaker 19%
Unemployed 11%
Employed full‐time 30%
Employed part‐time 14%
Retired 19%
Northeast 22%
Midwest 22%
South 34%
West 23%
Attend Religious Services Frequently
25%
Attend Religious Services Occasionally
15%
Attend Religious Services Rarely
60%
Use networking sites 59%
Do not use networking sites 41%
Walmart Moms Total
Voted for John McCain 39%
Voted for Barack Obama 46%
Student 7%
Homemaker 35%
Unemployed 9%
Employed full‐time 30%
Employed part‐time 17%
Retired 2%
Northeast 18%
Midwest 20%
South 41%
West 21%
Attend Religious Services Frequently
24%
Attend Religious Services Occasionally
19%
Attend Religious Services Rarely
57%
Use networking sites 69%
Do not use networking sites 31%
SLIDE 37 SLIDE 37
70 Battleground Congressional Districts
1. AL‐2 (Bright) 2. AR‐1 (Berry)* 3. AR‐2 (Snyder)* 4. AZ‐8 (Giffords) 5. CO‐4 (Markey) 6. FL‐8 (Grayson) 7. FL‐24 (Kosmas) 8. ID‐1 (Minnick) 9. IN‐8 (Ellsworth)* 10. KS‐3 (Moore)* 11. LA‐3 (Melancon)* 12. MD‐1 (Kratovil) 13. MI‐1 (Stupak)* 14. MI‐7 (Schauer) 15. MS‐1 (Childers) 16. NH‐1 (Shea‐Porter) 17. ND‐AL (Pomeroy) 18. NH‐2 (Hodes)* 19. NJ‐3 (Adler) 20. NM‐2 (Teague) 21. NY‐24 (Arcuri) 22. NY‐29 (VACANT, Massa)* 23. OH‐1 (Dreihaus) 24. OH‐15 (Kilroy) 25. PA‐7 (Sestak)* 26. TN‐6 (Gordon)* 27. TN‐8 (Tanner)* 28. VA‐2 (Nye) 29. VA‐5 (Perriello) 30. WA‐3 (Baird)*
31. AZ‐1 (Kirkpatrick) 32. AZ‐5 (Mitchell) 33. CA‐11 (McNerney) 34. CO‐3 (Salazar) 35. FL‐2 (Boyd) 36. IA‐3 (Boswell) 37. IL‐14 (Foster) 38. IN‐9 (Hill) 39. MO‐4 (Skelton) 40. NC‐8 (Kissell) 41. NM‐1 (Heinrich) 42. NY‐1 (Bishop) 43. NY‐13 (McMahon) 44. NY‐19 (Hall) 45. NY‐23 (Owens) 46. NY‐25 (Maffei) 47. NV‐3 (Titus) 48. OH‐16 (Boccieri) 49. OH‐18 (Space) 50. PA‐3 (Dahlkemper) 51. PA‐8 (Murphy) 52. PA‐10 (Carney) 53. PA‐11 (Kanjorski) 54. PA‐12 (Critz) 55. SC‐5 (Spratt) 56. TX‐17 (Edwards) 57. VA‐9 (Boucher) 58. WI‐7 (Obey)* 59. WI‐8 (Kagen) 60. WV‐1 (Mollohan)*
1. CA‐3 (Lungren) 2. CA‐44 (Calvert) 3. DE‐AL (Castle)* 4. FL‐25 (Diaz‐Balart)* 5. HI‐1 (Djou) 6. IL‐10 (Kirk)* 7. LA‐2 (Cao) 8. MN‐6 (Bachmann) 9. PA‐6 (Gerlach) 10. PA‐15 (Dent)
DEM Tier I DEM Tier II GOP Districts
* Asterisk denotes that incumbent is not running for re-election, either due to retirement announcement, resignation, or losing in primary election.