2009 Credit Suisse Energy Summit2009 Credit Suisse Energy Summit
John John CarrigCarrig President and Chief Operating President and Chief Operating OfficerOfficer
Vail, Colorado Vail, Colorado February 5, 2009February 5, 2009
1
The following presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which are intended to be covered by the safe harbors created thereby. You can identify our forward-looking statements by words such as “anticipates,” “expects,” “intends,” “plans,” “projects,” “believes,” “estimates,” and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements relating to ConocoPhillips’ operations are based on management’s expectations, estimates and projections about ConocoPhillips and the petroleum industry in general on the date these presentations were given. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Further, certain forward-looking statements are based upon assumptions as to future events that may not prove to be accurate. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking statements.
Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially include, but are not limited to, crude oil and natural gas prices; refining and marketing margins; potential failure to achieve, and potential delays in achieving expected reserves or production levels from existing and future oil and gas development projects due to operating hazards, drilling risks, and the inherent uncertainties in interpreting engineering data relating to underground accumulations of oil and gas; unsuccessful exploratory drilling activities; lack of exploration success; potential disruption or unexpected technical difficulties in developing new products and manufacturing processes; potential failure of new products to achieve acceptance in the market; unexpected cost increases or technical difficulties in constructing or modifying company manufacturing or refining facilities; unexpected difficulties in manufacturing, transporting or refining synthetic crude oil; international monetary conditions and exchange controls; potential liability for remedial actions under existing or future environmental regulations; potential liability resulting from pending or future litigation; general domestic and international economic and political conditions, as well as changes in tax and other laws applicable to ConocoPhillips’ business. Other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements include other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors affecting ConocoPhillips’ business generally as set forth in ConocoPhillips’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including our Form 10-K for the year ending December 31, 2007. ConocoPhillips is under no obligation (and expressly disclaims any such obligation) to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors – The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We may use certain terms in this presentation such as “oil/gas resources,” “Syncrude,”and/or “Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) proved reserves” that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the oil and gas disclosures in our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007.
This presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial measures, as indicated. Such non-GAAP measures are intended to supplement, not substitute for, comparable GAAP measures. Investors are urged to consider closely the GAAP reconciliation tables provided in the presentation Appendix.
FOR THE PURPOSES OF THE “SAFE HARBOR” PROVISIONSOF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTCAUTIONARY STATEMENT
2
Difficult Industry EnvironmentDifficult Industry Environment
Global economic crisis
Low and volatile commodity prices
Uncertain investment climate
High-cost production challenged
Energy and climate legislation
3
Oil PricesOil Prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2008 $/BBL WTI Price
Source: Oil and Gas Journal, Platts
January 15, 2009 settlement $35.40
Currently in cyclical downturnCurrently in cyclical downturn
4
Global Oil Demand DestructionGlobal Oil Demand Destruction
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Average Annual Growth / DeclineMillion Barrels per Day
Source: Oil and Gas Journal through 2007, International Energy Agency for 2008 and 2009, Goldman Sachs for low forecast in 2009
2009forecast
Possible additional decline
5
Current Oil Reserve Replacement Cost Curve Current Oil Reserve Replacement Cost Curve
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
World Oil Supply, 2009, MMB/D
Rep
lace
men
t Cos
t
Low Cost Middle East
Medium Cost Conventional
High Cost Conventional, EOR, Unconventional, U.S. Stripper Wells
Non-Mandated Biofuels
Dollars per Barrel
Man-dated Bio-fuels, shown as zero cost
Source: PIRA Energy
6Source: Wood Mackenzie
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 202527.4
32.9
38.4
43.8
49.3
54.8
60.3
65.8Alaskan Production
LNG Imports
Non-Associated Unconventional Growth
Existing Production
Trill
ion
Cub
ic F
eet
Net Pipeline Imports
Projected U.S. natural gas demand
U.S. Natural Gas Supply ChallengeU.S. Natural Gas Supply ChallengeB
CFD
7Source: International Energy Agency, December 2008 and January 2009 reports
-1,000-500
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Refinery CDU Biofuels Demand
Refined Product Supply/Demand BalanceRefined Product Supply/Demand Balance
Growth, Thousands of Barrels per Day
Supply Deficit Supply Surplus
Supply Deficit
8
COP’s Response to Current EnvironmentCOP’s Response to Current Environment
Maintain strong financial position and live within our means
Fund capital program
Pay dividend
Fund projects that offer greatest growth and return potential
Prioritize our programs
Operate safely, reliably and in an environmentally responsible manner
Capture benefits from improving cost environment
9
Financial StrategyFinancial Strategy
Fund attractive capital projects
Competitive distributions
Annual dividend increases
Share repurchases
Maintain optimum capital structure
Target debt / capital of 20-25%
10
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 CapitalProgram
Cash Capex Lukoil Affiliate Loans & EnCana JV Capitalized Interest Origin
Capital Program Capital Program
$ in billions
2006 Reflects 9 months of BR
16.3
12.815.2
12.511.8
19.9
11
2009 Capital Program Segment Composition ($ in billions)
2009 Capital Program Segment Composition ($ in billions)
RM&T- 16% ($2.0)Other- 2% ($0.2)
Other:Emerging Bus - $100mmCorporate - $150mmMidstream - $7mm
E&P - 82% ($10.3)
Total includes loans to affiliates, EnCana JV obligations and capitalized interest
Exploration
Production
12
2008 Overview2008 Overview
$16.4 B in Adjusted Earnings
Significant Adjustments
2.23 MMBOED Production
90% Refining Utilization
$8.2 B Share Repurchases
15% Dividend Increase
Origin Energy Joint Venture
Net Loss
$17 B
Debt-to-Cap
33%
Cash FromOperations
$22.7 B
13
$MM
Total Company Cash Flow2008
Total Company Cash Flow2008
CFOA22,658
Asset Sales& Other*
2,532
CapitalProgram
19,855
Sources of Cash Uses of CashTotal$30,958
Share Repurchases
8,249
2,854
DividendsDebt Increase
5,768
* Includes reduction in cash balance
14
Debt RatioDebt Ratio
56
35
44
54
8490
0
20
40
60
80
100
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
12.515.0
17.8
27.1
21.7
27.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
Equity * $B Balance Sheet Debt $B
24
19
26
34
19
33
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
Debt-to-Capital Ratio %
* Includes minority interest
15
7.089.97
14.79 13.76 12.19
18.44
8.10
22.1023.74
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3Q08 YTD3Q08
4Q08 2008
E&P Income per BOE
$ / BOE
Peer Group
11.6215.07
20.60 22.35 22.96
36.94
19.86
30.7034.53
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3Q08 YTD3Q08
4Q08 2008
E&P Cash Contribution per BOE
$ / BOE
E&P per BOE MetricsE&P per BOE Metrics
Based on total E&P BOE production. All companies Income adjusted to exclude certain non-core earnings impacts (based solely on publicly available information). Cash Contribution is calculated as Income plus DD&A. See Tables 1 and 2 of Appendix for additional information.
16
Peer Group
1.262.39
3.59 3.854.50
3.132.60 2.402.33
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3Q08 YTD3Q08
4Q08 2008
R&M Income per BBL
$ / BBL
1.883.06
4.28 4.64 5.163.90
3.09 3.34 3.16
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3Q08 YTD3Q08
4Q08 2008
R&M Cash Contribution per BBL
$ / BBL
R&M per BBL MetricsR&M per BBL Metrics
Based on total petroleum product sales. All companies Income adjusted to exclude certain non-core earnings impacts (based solely on publicly available information). Cash Contribution is calculated as Income plus DD&A. See Tables 1 and 2 of Appendix for additional information.
17
Return on Capital EmployedReturn on Capital Employed
Peer group adjusted to reflect all major combinations on a purchase-accounting basis; see Table 4 of Appendix; COP capital employed adjusted to add back Goodwill impairment at year-end 2008 for comparability to peers on a purchase basis. All companies adjusted to exclude certain non-core earnings impacts; see Table 1 of Appendix for additional information.
Peer Group
COP
17%14%
18% 17%
7%
15%
22%
10%
15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3Q08Annualized
1Q-3Q 2008Annualized
4Q08Annualized
2008
Appendix
19
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3Q08 1Q-3Q 2008 4Q08 2008GAAP E&P Net Income - $MM 4,302 5,702 8,430 9,848 4,615 3,928 10,814 (24,293) (13,479) GAAP E&P Net Income - $ / BOE 7.33 9.97 14.79 13.78 6.73 24.43 22.37 (141.43) (20.59) non-core earnings impacts - $MM gains and (losses) on asset dispositions 565 138 162 428 590 asset impairments (118) (4,752) (28) (28) (26,042) (26,070) tax legislation / regulatory / other 142 (4) 133 436 - (71) (71) E&P Income - $ / BOE 7.08 9.97 14.79 13.76 12.19 23.74 22.10 8.10 18.44 E&P DD&A - $ / BOE 4.54 5.10 5.81 8.59 10.77 13.20 12.43 11.76 12.26 E&P Cash Contribution - $ / BOE 11.62 15.07 20.60 22.35 22.96 36.94 34.53 19.86 30.70
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3Q08 1Q-3Q 2008 4Q08 2008GAAP R&M Net Income - $MM 1,272 2,743 4,173 4,481 5,923 849 2,033 289 2,322 GAAP R&M Net Income - $ / BBL 1.14 2.39 3.52 3.53 5.00 3.13 2.47 1.00 2.09 non-core earnings impacts - $MM gains and (losses) on asset dispositions 339 2 127 97 224 asset impairments (441) 112 - (13) (537) (550) tax legislation / regulatory / other (125) (83) 34 141 - - (24) (24) R&M Income - $ / BBL 1.26 2.39 3.59 3.85 4.50 3.13 2.33 2.60 2.40 R&M DD&A - $ / BBL 0.62 0.67 0.69 0.79 0.66 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.76 R&M Cash Contribution - $ / BBL 1.88 3.06 4.28 4.64 5.16 3.90 3.09 3.34 3.16
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3Q08 1Q-3Q 2008 4Q08 2008GAAP ROCE 10% 15% 23% 17% 11% 18% 18% -126% -17% non-core earnings impacts - $MM gains and (losses) on asset dispositions 306 904 140 289 525 814 asset impairments (559) (4,640) (28) (41) (34,104) (34,145) tax legislation / regulatory / other 142 (22) (111) 167 639 35 (99) (64)
Goodwill impairment equity adjustment - $MM - - - - - - - 25,443 25,443
ROCE 10% 15% 22% 17% 14% 18% 17% 7% 15%
Table 1
COP Non-GAAP ReconciliationsCOP Non-GAAP Reconciliations
20
COP Non-GAAP ReconciliationsCOP Non-GAAP Reconciliations
Table 2
For Peer Companies, Cash Contribution is calculated as adjusted Income plus DD&A for each full year 2003 through 2007.For 2008, Peer Company DD&A data has not yet been made public by E&P and R&M segments, so 2008 Peer Company DD&A splits bysegment have been made based on year end 2007 DD&A segment weightings as applied to 2008 total company DD&A expense.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3Q08 1Q-3Q 2008 4Q08 2008GAAP E&P CFOA - $MM 7,751 9,109 12,126 16,978 16,228 6,456 18,588 2,388 20,976 GAAP E&P CFOA - $ / BOE 13.20 15.92 21.27 23.77 23.65 40.15 38.46 13.90 32.04
excluded GAAP items - $MMnon-cash working capital 356 221 31 244 393 430 1,713 (1,324) 389 non-working capital adjustments* 573 267 350 770 78 86 187 301 488
E&P Cash Contribution - $ / BOE 11.62 15.07 20.60 22.35 22.96 36.94 34.53 19.86 30.70
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3Q08 1Q-3Q 2008 4Q08 2008GAAP R&M CFOA - $MM 2,208 2,671 4,914 4,625 6,757 1,052 456 1,447 1,903 GAAP R&M CFOA - $ / BBL 1.99 2.32 4.14 3.65 5.70 3.88 0.55 5.00 1.71
excluded GAAP items - $MMnon-cash working capital (104) (702) 267 (1,095) 1,188 (14) (1,449) 155 (1,294) non-working capital adjustments* 225 (142) (427) (172) (546) 8 (638) 325 (314)
R&M Cash Contribution - $ / BBL 1.88 3.06 4.28 4.64 5.16 3.90 3.09 3.34 3.16
*Includes items such as deferred tax, accretion on discounted liabilities, and undistributed equity earnings
21Table 3
COP Non-GAAP ReconciliationsCOP Non-GAAP Reconciliations$MM 4Q07 2007 3Q08 4Q08 2008Consolidated Net income (loss) 4,371$ 11,891$ 5,188$ (31,764)$ (16,998)$Goodwill recoverability impairment (25,443) (25,443) LUKOIL investment impairment (7,410) (7,410) Impairment - expropriated assets (4,512) Impairments - other (111) (161) (28) (1,251) (1,292) Gain (loss) on asset sales 188 1,047 140 525 814 Tax rate changes 186 365 Severance accruals (99) (99) Total Adjustments 374 1,412 140 426 715 Consolidated Adjusted earnings 3,997$ 10,479$ 5,048$ (32,190)$ (17,713)$
E&P Net income (loss) 2,608$ 4,615$ 3,928$ (24,293)$ (13,479)$Goodwill recoverability impairment (25,443) (25,443) Impairment - expropriated assets (4,512) Impairments - other (120) (273) (28) (599) (627) Gain (loss) on asset sales 172 708 138 428 590 Tax rate changes 171 209 Severance accruals (71) (71) Total Adjustments 343 917 138 357 519 E&P Adjusted earnings 2,265$ 3,698$ 3,790$ (24,650)$ (13,998)$
R&M Net income 1,122$ 5,923$ 849$ 289$ 2,322$ Impairments 9 112 (537) (550) Gain (loss) on asset sales 16 339 2 97 224 Tax rate changes 141 Severance accruals (24) (24) Total Adjustments 25 592 2 (464) (350) R&M Adjusted earnings 1,097$ 5,331$ 847$ 753$ 2,672$
LUKOIL Investment Net income (loss) 649$ 1,818$ 438$ (7,410)$ (5,488)$ Impairment (7,410) (7,410)
LUKOIL Investment Adjusted earnings 649$ 1,818$ 438$ -$ 1,922$
Emerging Businesses Net income (loss) 2$ (8)$ 35$ (25)$ 30$ Impairments (85) (85) Emerging Businesses Adjusted earnings 2$ (8)$ 35$ 60$ 115$ Corporate Net income (loss) (271)$ (1,269)$ (281)$ (388)$ (1,034)$ Impairments (30) (30) Tax rate changes 15 15 Severance accruals (4) (4) Total Adjustments 15 15 - (34) (34) Corporate Adjusted earnings (expenses) (286)$ (1,284)$ (281)$ (354)$ (1,000)$
22
Peer Capital Employed Peer Capital Employed
XOM CVX BP TOT**
Equity issued for purchase* 72,795 35,690 49,091 65,055
Less: Equity of companies acquired (19,015) (14,330) (15,682) (20,458)
Excess Capital Employed under 53,780 21,360 33,409 44,597Purchase Accounting
Peer Group: ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, TOTAL and Royal Dutch Shell (note: no adjustments for Shell)
* Based on the number of shares issued in the transaction and the average price two days before and two days after
the deals were announced
** Shown in Euros
Table 4