Dec 24, 2019
MAIZE/CHANA/SUGAR/PADDY
Commodity Market
Monitor
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All India Weather Status
Last week all India Rainfall status: 12th December 2019 to 18th December 2019
Arunachal Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh states received the deficit rainfall
Kerala state received the excess rainfall
Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Odisha, Maharashtra and Karnataka state received the large deficit rainfall
Sikkim, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir,
Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh states received the large excess rainfall
West Bengal and Tamil Nadu states received the normal rainfall
No rainfall has observed in Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Goa and Telangana states
During the week, rainfall was above Long Period Average (LPA) by 183% over the country as a whole.
Seasonal all India Rainfall status: 1st October 2019 to 18th December 2019.
Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Mizoram, Sikkim and Bihar states received the deficit rainfall
Nagaland, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Chandigarh, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh,
Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Kerala states received the excess rainfall.
Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Dadar &
Nagar , Goa, Maharashtra and Karnataka states received the large excess rainfall
Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu states received normal rainfall.
For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during 1st October 2019 to 18th December 2019 was above Long Period Average (LPA) by 35% over the country as a whole.
Weather Forecast:
Cumulatively, above normal precipitation likely over Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh Himachal Pradesh, below normal over Andaman &
Nicobar islands, Tamil Nadu & Kerala and near normal over the rest of India
Major parts of India are likely to experience below normal night minimum temperatures during 20th-26th December, However, isolated
pockets of south interior Karnataka, Madhya Maharashtra and east Uttar Pradesh could remain warmer than normal for a few days
during this period
All India Reservoir Status: as on 19th December 2019
Central Water Commission is monitoring live storage status of 120 reservoirs of the country on weekly basis and is issuing weekly bulletin on every Thursday. The total live storage capacity of these 120 reservoirs is 170.328 BCM which is about 66.06% of the live storage capacity of 257.812 BCM which is estimated to have been created in the country. As per reservoir storage bulletin dated 19.12.2019, live storage available in these reservoirs is 140.08 BCM, which is 82% of total live storage capacity of these reservoirs. However, last year the live storage available in these reservoirs for the corresponding period was 94.59 BCM and the average of last 10 years live storage was 101.74 BCM. Thus, the live storage available in 120 reservoirs as per 19.12.2019 Bulletin is 148% of the live storage of corresponding period of last year and 138% of storage of average of last ten years.
Source: IMD, DAC&FW and CWC
Current Crop Scenario
RABI CORN
Acreage: 11.06 lakh ha area is sown till the current week while the normal for the season is 17.49 lakh ha.
Crop sowing is under progress and is in sowing/ emerging to vegetative growing stage. Rainfall
received during second week of Dec-19 was beneficial for the crop. Acreage of corn in the
current week is almost similar than corresponding week of 2018. Incidence of sucking pest has
been observed in the field same is under controlled using pesticide of spray. Overall standing
crop condition is normal.
Major Growing States is Bihar, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka.
Gram
Acreage: 89.28 lakh ha area is sown till the current week while the normal for the season is 93.53
lakh ha.
Sowing of the crop is in under progress and crop is in emerging to vegetative growing stage.
Rainfall received during 3rd week of Dec-19 was beneficial for the crop. Acreage of Gram in the
current week is higher than corresponding week of 2018. Higher acreage reported in state of
Rajasthan and Maharashtra. Incidence of sucking pest has been observed in the field and same is
under below economic level. Overall crop condition is normal.
Gram major growing state is Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan state.
Lentil Acreage: 14.49 lakh ha area coverage has been reported while the normal for the season is 14.20
lakh ha.
Crop sowing is almost completed, and crop is in vegetative growing stage. Rainfall received during 3rd week of Dec-19 was beneficial for the crop. Crop acreage in the current week is lower than corresponding week of 2018. Incidence of sucking pest and disease has not been observed in field. Overall current crop condition is normal. Major Lentil crop growing state is Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh (Buldelkhand region).
Mustard Acreage: 63.92 lakh ha area coverage has been reported while the normal for the season is 60.48
lakh ha.
Sowing is completed. Crop is 30 to 65 days old and is in vegetative to flowering stage, while, early
sown crop is in pod formation/pod development stage. Rainfall received during 3rd week of Dec-19
was beneficial for the crop. Acreage of Mustard in the current week is lower than corresponding
week of 2018. Incidence of sucking pest has not been reported by the field. Overall crop condition is
normal.
Mustard crop major growing state is Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Utter Pradesh and Haryana state.
Wheat Acreage: 277.91 lakh ha area coverage has been reported while the normal for the season is 305.58
lakh ha.
Sowing is under progress and crop is in emerging to vegetative growing stage. However, early
sown crop is in tillering stage. Rainfall received during 3rd week of Dec-19 was beneficial for the
crop. Acreage of wheat in the current week is higher than corresponding week of 2018 because of
higher market price realization by farmers and assured return compare to other Rabi crops. Higher
acreage reported in state of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Gujarat. Overall crop condition is
normal. Wheat major growing state is Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Bihar
and Gujarat state.
As on 20th December 2019, the all India Rabi season Maize acreage has declined to 11.06 lakh hectares as compared to 11.41 lakh hectares last year same period.
In Bihar around 3.53 lakh hectares area was sown, in Tamil Nadu 1.41 lakh hectares, in Gujarat 1.15 lakh hectares, Maharashtra 1.07 lakh hectares, West Bengal 0.82 lakh hectares and Telangana 0.67 lakh hectares area was covered under Maize.
As per the 01st Kharif crop advance estimates of Ministry by Agriculture, the all India Maize 2019-20 productions is estimated at 19.89 million tonnes as against 19.04 million tonnes during 2018-19.
The Government has increased the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Maize by Rs. 60 at Rs, 1760 per quintal for 2019-20 as against Rs 1700 per quintal in 2018-19.
As per market sources, a consortium of starch manufacturers and poultry feed producers will import around 50,000 tonnes of maize under the advance authorisation scheme licence as imports are still more attractive compared with high spot prices. The consignment of 50,000 tonnes Ukrainian non-genetically modified maize bought at $198 per tonnes, cost and freight. The consignment has been bought duty-free under the advance authorisation scheme that permits duty-free imports, provided the processed product is exported within a stipulated time frame. Import of maize otherwise attracts 60 per cent customs duty.
Maize imports are attractive as spot prices are still higher on year as bulk buyers see the crop to be smaller than what the government has estimated.
As per trade sources, Vessel (INCE FORTUNE) with 53,120.00 tonnes of corn was expected to arrive at Kandla port on 21 December, 2019.
As per trade sources, India imported around 36,982 metric tonnes of maize for the month of October 2019. Out of which, around 27,200 metric tonnes was imported from Ukraine for the Kandla port at an average value of $197.50 per metric tonnes.
Meanwhile, around 9,782 metric tonnes was imported from Myanmar for the Chennai and Tuticorin port at an average value of $263.18 per metric tonnes.
Fundamental Analysis- MAIZE
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
Location 23/12/2019 16/12/2019 %
Change
Nizamabad 2050 2001 2.45
Purnia 2283 2368 -3.59
Delhi 2250 2200 2.27
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Higher supplies of new crop in spot markets
Bearish
Strong demand from traders and stockists
Bullish
Lower acreage under current Rabi season
Bullish
Estimation of lower production by trader and Government
Bullish
Increase in import of Maize Bearish
Higher MSP for 2019-20 season Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
1,600.00
1,700.00
1,800.00
1,900.00
2,000.00
2,100.00
2,200.00
2,300.00
2,400.00
2,500.00
Maize _ Gulabbagh
Fundamental Analysis- CHANA
According to the latest Rabi sowing report as on 11th December 2019, all
India chana sowing acreage is recorded at 80.63 lakh hectares which is
around 0.2 per cent higher than last year acreage of 80.50 lakh hectares
in the same time period.
Chana acreage is expected to be lower in Madhya Pradesh as farmers
may switch to wheat due to higher moisture content in the soil. High
moisture is not appropriate for chana crop as it makes it vulnerable to
pest attacks. However, lower chana acreage in Madhya Pradesh is
compensated by higher acreage in other producing states like
Rajasthan and Maharashtra.
In the recent days, chana prices are firming due to delayed crop and
expectation of yield loss due to non-conducive weather. However,
government decision to sell chana from buffer stock and higher
acreage report may limit the uptrend.
The Ministry of Consumer affairs that maintain buffer stock of pulses
under the Price Stabilisation Mechanism has offered to sell about 8.5
lakh tonnes of pulses to state governments at market price to boost
domestic availability. Chana amount offered is 1.2 lakh tonnes.
As on 17th Dec’19, Nafed Chana stock is reported at 16.4 Lakh MT in
which 10 Lakh is reserved for supply to state governments and 6.4 Lakh
for sale through tenders. Chana stock in Andhra Pradesh is 3.10
thousand MT.
As on 19th Dec’19, NAFED has offered 1.26 thousand MT of kabuli chana
in Madhya Pradesh and chana in Haryana.
According to the first advance estimate released by agriculture
ministry, chana production target for 2019-20 is reported at 11.60 million
MT which is 14.5 per cent higher than the last year production estimate
of 10.13 million MT.
According to the latest report of ABARES, Australian chickpea
production is forecasted to increase by 2.48 per cent in 2019-20 to 2.89
Lakh tonnes as compare to 2.82 lakh tonnes in 2018-19. Despite
decrease in acreage in 2019-20 to 2.68 lakh hectares from 3.03 lakh
hectares in 2018-19, production is estimated higher due to favourable
weather condition in major growing region of Queensland. Production
of chickpea is far below than average of 5 years production due to
lower prices and weaker demand from India.
Chickpea acreage is expected to decline in Canada from 176 to 74
thousand hectares in 2019-20 while production is expected to decline
from 3.11 to 1.30 lakh metric tonnes. Supply is forecast to increase due
to higher carry-in stocks but softened by lower imports and production.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
Location 23/12/2019 16/12/2019 %
Change
Vijayawada 4400 4250 3.53
Indore 4350 4350 0
Mumbai 4200 4300 -2.3
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Higher sowing acreage Bearish
Expectation of yield loss due to non-favourable weather condition
Bullish
Selling of chana from buffer stock Bearish
Higher domestic production estimate Bearish
Lower production estimate of Australian chana
Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Gram - Rajasthani desi
Fundamental Analysis-SUGAR
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
Location 23-12-2019 16-12-2019 % Change
Delhi 3300 3260 1.23
Muzaffarnagar 3320 3335 -0.45
Kolhapur 3200 3200 0
Contract of about 22 lakh Mt sugar export has been done till 20th Nov out of 60
lakh Mt export target.
Majority of export contracts have been done by Uttar Pradesh where out of 22
lakh mt allocated quantity about 16 lakh mt has been contracted.
Followed by Maharashtra from where contracts for 6 lakh Mt, the export
contracts are low in quantity due to lower sugar production estimate in current
year in Maharashtra and Karnataka.
Iran is still active and buying sugar from India although now it is buying at flat
price vs last week when it was buying at USD 10 premium per mt.
International sugar price have also strengthened by USD 7/Mt (+2%) over last week
and profitable over domestic selling price of sugar.
Indian sugar demand price has also strengthened over last week by USD 8 to USD
10 (USD 330 to USD 332 for icumsa 150 crop 2018/19 And USD 335 to 337 for icumsa
100 crop 2019/20) but export contracts are slow as participation from Maharashtra
and Karnataka is low due to lower sugar production estimate. While Uttar Pradesh
millers have exhausted 70% of their quota.
Domestic sugar prices remained stable, as December sugar release quota is 21.5
lakh Mt at par with monthly consumption.
Domestic sugar prices are trading at Rs 3250 - 3260/Mt for M grade sugar in
Muzaffarnagar (Uttar Pradesh) and at Rs 3100 - 3130/Mt for S grade sugar in
Kolhapur (Maharashtra)
Planting of sugarcane for 2020-21 is underway in Maharashtra and Karnataka
As of 15th December India produced 45.81 lakh mt down 35% from last year
production of 70.54 lakh mt, the production is lagging due to late start and lesser
number of mills operations in Maharashtra.
In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana 14 mills have started and produced 0.30 lakh mt
sugar vs 1.05 lakh mt last year as on 15 Dec from 18 mills working at that time.
India is expected to produce 260 lakh Mt in 2019-20 (as estimated by Indian Sugar
Millers Association) with record opening stock of 146 lakh Mt lead to record total
availability of 406 lakh Mt.
Government of India has given export subsidy of Rs 10.40/kg of sugar for a target
of 60 lakh Mt export.
It is estimated that out of target of 60 lakh Mt, India may export 40 to 45 lakh Mt
due to logistical constraints and reason like some millers may not participate due
to lower production in Maharashtra and Karnataka etc.
Overall India is still expected to close 2019-20 with a big closing stock of 100 lakh
Mt.
Sugar prices are controlled by Central Govt. by fixing MSP (minimum sale price) of
sugar at Rs 3100/Mt, monthly domestic sale quota and export subsidy, so sugar
price should remain range bound i.e. in between Rs 3100 to 3250/Mt and NCML
has Neutral rating for sugar price as price expected to remain range bound.
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Lower sugar production YOY Bullish
Sugar Production at par with Consumption
Neutral
Higher opening stocks Bearish
Higher planting intention for next year
Bearish
Monthly sale quota (December) Neutral
Export driven by subsidy and good demand at current price
Neutral
Minimum Sale Price (Sugar) Neutral
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Jul-
17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Jan
-19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-
19
Sep
-19
No
v-1
9
Sugar _ M Grade
Fundamental Analysis- Rice & Paddy
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Higher Rice acreage under current Rabi season
Bearish
Higher Rice procurement by FCI and its agencies
Bullish
Lower export demand from African countries
Bearish
Kharif Rice 2019-20 estimated lower at 100.35 million tonnes
Bullish
Higher MSP of Paddy at Rs. 1815 against Rs. 1750 per quintal in 2018-19
Bullish
Higher availability in global markets
Bearish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
Location 23-12-2019 16-12-2019 %
Change
Delhi(PB1121)
2925 2890 1.21
Karnal(PB1121)
3000 2900 3.45
Amritsar(PB1121)
3080 2975 3.53
Paddy acreage as on 20th December, 2019 as per reports received from government, stands at 12.35 lakh hectare as compared to 10.11 lakh hectares last year same period. It is reported that rice has been sown/transplanted in Andhra Pradesh is higher by 75 per cent and reached to 2.18 lakh hectares from last year area of 1.24 lakh hectares. Tamilnadu paddy area in Rabi is also up by 20 per cent from last year and reached to 9.27 lakh hectares.
All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 13th December 2019 increased at 201.06 lakh tonnes as compared to 190.99 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period last year. The procurement target set for 2019-20 (October-September) is 416.00 lakh tonnes.
Higher Rice procurement is done from Punjab (108.73 lakh tonnes), Haryana (43.02 lakh tonnes), Uttarakhand (6.10 lakh tonnes), Uttar Pradesh (18.23 lakh tonnes), Tamil Nadu (0.30 lakh tonnes) and Kerala (0.98 lakh tonnes).
The Government has fixed the MSP of Paddy (common grade) at Rs, 1815 per quintal for 2019-20 as against Rs 1750 per quintal in 2018-19. The grade A variety of Paddy increased to Rs 1835 per quintal from Rs 1770 per quintal in 2018-19.
India's rice exports in October declined 42 per cent year-on-year to 485,898 tonnes, due to weak demand from African countries for non-basmati rice.
Top exporter India’s 5 per cent broken parboiled variety was quoted around $360-$365 per ton this week, up from last week’s $358-$363/MT. Paddy rice prices have been rising as farmers are demanding the minimum support price.
Thailand’s 5 per cent broken rice was quoted at $395-$420 a tonne, on a free on board basis, compared with $397-$411 last week. Farmers are harvesting new season rice and exporters hope the new supply could help lower prices in the near future.
In Vietnam, rates for 5 per cent broken rice were quoted at $350-$352 a tonne on Thursday, compared with $350 a week earlier. Demand from the Philippines is increasing, but domestic supplies are running low.
US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its November report had estimated the global availability of rice to be 67.10 million tonnes in the 2019-20 marketing season, which has been increased from 6 lakh tonnes to 67.16 million tonnes in the December report.
2,000.00
2,500.00
3,000.00
3,500.00
4,000.00
4,500.00
Paddy _ Hanumangarh
UP paddy procurement up 40% to
2.75 mn tonnes so far this Kharif
season
Import of edible oil drops 50% in
two months on 5% safeguard duty
Cold weather in North India to
boost rabi crop yields
Centre To Offload 8.47 Lakh Tonne
Pulses From Buffer Stock To Boost
Supply, Control Prices
Centre asks states to lift pulses
from buffer stock to cool rising
prices
Onion shortage: Here's why
farmers gained little from record
price rise
Delay in harvest likely to brew
trouble for coffee crop output
To purchase the India Commodity Year
Book 2019, contact us at
The Week That Was!
MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)
Commodity 2018-19 2019-20
KHARIF **NEW**
Paddy Common 1750 1815
paddy grade A 1770 1835
Jowar Hybrid 2430 2550
Jowar Maldandi 2450 2570
Bajra 1950 2000
Ragi 2897 3150
Maize 1700 1760
Tur/Arhar 5675 5800
Moong 6975 7050
Urad 5600 5700
Groundnut 4890 5090
Sunflower seed 5388 5650
Soybean Yellow 3399 3710
Sesame 6249 6485
Niger seed 5877 5940
Cotton (Medium Staple) 5150 5255
Cotton (Long Staple) 5450 5550
RABI**NEW**
Commodity 2018-19 2019-20
Wheat 1840 1925
Barley 1440 1525
Gram 4620 4875
Masoor (Lentil) 4475 4800
Rapeseed/Mustard 4200 4425
Safflower 4945 5215
*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal
# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal
Commodity Latest Fortnight
ago Month
ago Year ago
23-Dec-19 9-Dec-19 25-Nov-19 24-Dec-18
Wheat 2225 2193 2200 2050
Chana 4460 4276 4376 4331
Rice/Paddy 2850 2800 2700 3400
Tur 5300 5200 5250 3900
Maize 2407 2269 2150 1881
Turmeric 6000 5859 5948 7040
Official Production Estimates
First Advance Estimates 2019-20 & previous years’ estimates: Fourth advance estimates 2018-19 Link for commodity-wise and market-
wise prices and arrivals:
http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArrival
s/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx
PRICE TRACKER
Progress area coverage under Rabi crops as on 20.12.2019
Area : In lakh hectare
Sl.no Crop Normal Rabi Area (DES)
Area sown Difference of 2019-20 Over
2019-20 2018-19 2018-19
1 Wheat 305.58 277.91 250.02 27.88
2 Rice 42.76 12.35 10.11 2.24
3 Pulses 146 131.46 131.38 0.08
a Gram 93.53 89.28 86.7 2.58
b Lentil 14.19 14.49 15.62 -1.13
c Field pea 9.45 8.73 8.5 0.24
d Kulthi 2.04 4.92 4.97 -0.05
e Urad bean 8.61 5.01 5.24 -0.24
f Moong bean 10.1 1.83 2.59 -0.76
g Lathyrus 4.13 2.66 2.88 -0.23
h Other pulses 3.94 4.55 4.88 -0.33
4 Coarse Cereals 60.78 43.7 40.1 3.6
a Jowar 35.75 25.03 21.57 3.46
b Bajra 0.31 0.18 0.09 0.08
c Ragi 0.46 0.34 0.47 -0.13
d Maize 17.49 11.06 11.41 -0.35
e Barley 6.77 7.1 6.55 0.55
5 Oilseed 78.85 71.79 73.08 -1.28
a Rapeseed & mustard 60.48 63.92 65.32 -1.4
b Groundnuts 7.76 3.35 2.9 0.45
c Safflower 1.41 0.41 0.32 0.09
d Sunflower 2.96 0.77 0.95 -0.18
e Sesamum 3.12 0.35 0.35 0
f Linseed 2.99 2.71 2.99 -0.28
g Other oilseed 0.14 0.27 0.25 0.03
Total crops 633.98 537.21 504.69 32.52
Advisory Team
Nalin Rawal Head [email protected]
Sreedhar Nandam Vice President [email protected]
S. Anisul Hassan Head - Business Development [email protected]
Research Team
Ankur Gupta Data Scientist [email protected]
Mukesh Upamanyu Agri Analyst [email protected]
Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager [email protected]
Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst [email protected]
Ratanpriya Assistant Manager [email protected]
Bhaskar M Quality Officer [email protected]
Shefali Jain Operation Executive [email protected]
Surbhi Taneja Operation Executive [email protected]
Rajiv Kumar Associate [email protected]
Disclaimer:
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addressee. Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of AGCON. Any
third party in possession of the report may not rely on its conclusions without the written consent of AGCON. AGCON has exercised
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from errors, omissions or misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are
based on circumstances and facts as they existed at the time of preparation of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on
which this report is based may adversely affect any recommendations, opinions or findings contained in this report.
© NCML AGRI BUSINESS CONSULTANTS PRIVATE LIMITED (AGCON) 2019