Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Automation in Commercial Aviation
2030+Automation & Robotics in Passenger Travel & Airline
Processes
HANDOUT TO PRESENTATION SLIDES
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“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Intro | Copyright Statement
Copyright Technische Universität München, Airbus, Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V, München, 2017.
Study performed by Technische Universität München, Airbus, Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V, ifmo and Flughafen München without any commercial interest.
Please note that all results, diagrams and pictures documented in this handout are only for internal use. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the expressed written consent of the Institute of Aircraft Design, Technische Universität München, Airbus and Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V.
Munich & Hamburg, January 2017
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“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Intro | Project Responsibilities
Technische Universität München
Gilbert Tay
Airbus Operations GmbH
Axel Becker
Process Design & Moderation
Axel Becker / Gilbert Tay
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“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Intro | Contact
Technische Universität MünchenLehrstuhl für LuftfahrtsystemeBoltzmannstraße 1585747 GarchingGilbert Tay, M.Sc.Tel: +49 (0) 89 289 [email protected]
Airbus Operations GmbHCabin MarketingKreetslag 1021129 HamburgDipl.-Ing. Axel BeckerTel: +49 (0) 40 743 [email protected]
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“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Intro | Project Participants
STUDENTS
Martin AzzouniIason BauseweinAlexander DepserMarc HirschkaRobin KarpsteinFlorian MeindlDaniel MetzlerPatrick MuschakJacob NowakFlavio RehnChristina RosenmöllerJulian SchmidThomas Schönberger
EXPERTS
Gilbert Tay - Lehrstuhl für LuftfahrsystemeAxel Becker - Airbus Annika Paul - Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V.Kai Plöttner - Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.VPeter Phleps - Institut für Mobilitätsforschung (ifmo)Christoph Schneider - Flughafen München GmbHJördis Därr - Airbus Kevin Keniston - Airbus
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Intro | Table of Contents
1. Welcome – Prof. Mirko Hornung (BHL/LLS), Axel Becker (Airbus) 7
2. Topic Motivation - Gilbert Tay (TUM) 12
3. Project and Scenario Approach – Gilbert Tay (TUM) 15
3. Description of Scenario Results – Students 20
– Scenario A 25
– Scenario B 42
– Scenario C 57
4. Synthesis of Scenario Results – Students 73
5. Conclusions & Outlook – Students 89
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Slide 7
WelcomeProf. Mirko Hornung (TUM/BHL), Axel Becker (Airbus)
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“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Welcome | Overview Institute of Aircraft Design
As part of the Institute for Aerospace at the Technische Universität München the Institute of Aircraft Design focuses on the three topics:
Scenario Analysis, Future Trends &
Technologies
Aircraft Design (civil & military)
Analysis & Evaluation ofAir Transport Systems
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“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Welcome | Main Objectives
What are the main objectives of the practical course„Air Transport Scenarios“ at TUM?
• To deepen the insight into the cross impacts within the air transport system on basis of a specific issue
• Presentation of scenario techniques as a methodology for strategic planning
• Strengthening of soft skills:structured communication, organization and discussion within groups and plenum, presentation of complex results
cross-system thinking within
aviation
presentation of scenario
methodology
strengthening of soft skills
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“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Welcome | History
10th Scenario project of Airbus with TU München & Bauhaus Luftfahrt
• Airbus is supporting the lecture since 2006.
• Since 2015 as integrated part of Airbus Cabin Marketing (before Cabin Innovation).
• Working with scenarios to better understand future market developments.
• Close co-operations with internal and external stakeholders.
• “Green Airlines” scenario in 2015 part of Airbus´sustainability approach
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Welcome | Focus Airbus
Automation & Robotics in Aviation
• Airlines & airports embrace smartphones as digital companions to further guide passengers towards a self-service environment along travel chain.
• Increasing applications and trials of automation & roboticsalong passenger travel chain and airline operations.
• Drones and robots further drive airline and airport processefficiency with smart humanoid service robots allowing an"emotionalization" of the human machine interface.
• Identification of cabin-related needs and opportunities inAirbus cabin strategy, R&T and innovation portfolio.
• Offer opportunities for internships and thesis projects in Airbus Cabin Marketing.
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Slide 12
Topic MotivationGilbert Tay (TUM)
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“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Topic Motivation | „Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+“
• Maintaining a competitive cost structure is crucial for airlines, amidst a persisting challenging operating environment. I.e. cost pressures to maximize overall productivity on one hand, ensuring more consistent operations at high standards as well as removing other constraints to growth.
• Automation along the passenger journey and in airline operations has been taking place in the last couple of years. E.g. self-service check-ins, bag-drop counters, automated boarding gates.
• Technology is advancing fast in automation, robotics and artificial intelligence:
More automation in other fields of transportation and tourism
Exploring opportunities of more automation in passenger & airline processes
Major investments made in these new fields of technology
• Challenges:
Passenger & user acceptance
Regulation & certification issues incl. safety & health issues
Relationships with crews, ground support staff and labour unions
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“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Topic Motivation
Topic Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+
Region Global
Time Frame 2016 - 2030
Key questions:
1. How will future business models and strategies change in the air transport sector within an increasing „automation“ along passenger, airline and airport processes?
2. How will passenger and staff acceptance be influenced by more automation?
3. What are the „touch points“ (hardware & software) and core technologies along the entire travel chain („Door-2-Door“) and in airline processes?
4. What could be definitions for different grades of automation and the use of robots?
Main Questions Addressed in the Scenario Project
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Slide 15
Project & Scenario Approach
Gilbert Tay (TUM)
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Project & Scenario Approach | Scenario Techniques
Scenario techniques help to cope with uncertainty in future developments
A scenario is a consistent picture of a comprehensive, future situation
and
a description of how this situation has emerged
The question is not what will happen but what might happen?
Source: Daimler STRG
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“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Project & Scenario Approach | Scenario Approach at LLS
Scenario transfer
Implicationanalysis
Scenario storyboards
Scenarioframeworks
Consistencyanalysis
Environment analysis
Problemdefinition
Methodical approach of scenario projects at TUM-LLS
2030
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“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Project & Scenario Approach | Overview
Derivation of various Grades of Automation
Various Scenario-Specific Stakeholder
Implications
Kick-Off
Workshop 1
Workshop 2
Workshop 3
Security First
Inclusive Development
Golden Age of Automation Scenario presentations:
• Scenario description
• Travel-Chain Analysis
• SWOT-Analysis
Introduction to current developments and applications
Automation Environmental Analysis – Status Quo 2016
Operational Implementation SWOT-Analysis
Travel Chain Analysis – In 3 Scenarios 2030
• Airlines•P
ass
eng
er
2030
• Visibility•A
ware
ness
2030
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“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Project & Scenario Approach | Intro to Student’s Presentation
Security First
Inclusive
Development
To be presented now
Golden Age of
Automation
Environment
analysis
today 2030
Structure of the
three Scenario
presentations:
• Scenario
description
• Travel-Chain
Analysis
• Stakeholder
SWOT-Analysis
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Slide 20
Description of Scenario Results
Students
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“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario Results | Overview of Scenario Factors
• Political stability & security situation
• Legal framework for automation technologies
• Economic efficiency of automated systems
• Investment propensity on automation technologies
• Development of ICT
• Cyber-attack threats for automated systems
• Reliability of automated integrated systems
• Market penetration of advanced physical automated systems
• Development of collaborative data management
• Potential for travel time reduction from D2D
• Passenger acceptance of automatization along travel process
• Traffic load along passenger processes
• Development of air travel demand
• Demographic development
• Market structure of mobility service providers
• Use of automation to improve workplace safety
• Position of unions on introduction of automation
• Quality of access to airport
• Airport security practices
• Level of automation during aircraft ground handling
ECONOMICS, POLITICS & REGULATIONS
TECHNOLOGY SOCIAL & PASSENGER AIRLINE & AIRPORTS
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“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario Results | Uncertainty-Impact (UI) Analysis
Economics of automation
Security situation (Political stability)
Legal framework
Investment propensity
Workplace safety
Influence of unions
Technology development in ICT and A.I.
Technological advancement of physical automation and
robotics (incl. A.I.)
Automation system reliaility
Data managementand sharing
Ecology of automated systems
Data and cybersecurity
Travel (time) efficiency
User experience and expectations
Individualisation of pax needs
User acceptance
Consumer know-how and perception
Demographic development (aging / restricted accessibility)
Air traffic demand
Airport security regulations
Accessibility of airports (Door-2-Door)
Ground-handling automation (GSE)
Mobility service providers (Airlines and 3rd-parties)
Infrastructure capacity (D2D and Airport)
0
4
8
12
16
20
0 4 8 12 16 20
UN
CE
RT
AIN
TY
IMPACT very importantless important
rathercertain
ratheruncertain
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“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario Results | Criteria of Research
RELEVANCE
To have impact, the scenarios should connect directly with the mental maps and concerns of the user.
INTERNAL CONSISTENCY
The scenarios should be internally consistent to be effective.
DISSIMILITUDE
The scenarios should be archetypal and describe generically different futures rather than variations of one theme.
LASTING EQUILIBRIUM
Each scenario ideally should describe an equilibrium or a state in which the system might exist for some length of time, as opposed to being highly transient.
1
2
3
4
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“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Scenario Results | 3 Scenarios at a Glance
Revolutionary technological developments
+ high investments in the industry
+ Passengers expect highly personalized services
A
Golden Ages of Automation
Coevolution instead of revolution
Incremental introduction of user focused and faultless automatization systems
+ high cooperation between MSPs
integrated D2D travel
B
Inclusive Development
Automation in aviation in a hesitant world & turbulent times
Ongoing cyber attacks
strict national standards and regulations
investor distrust and lack of passenger acceptance for automated systems
C
Security First
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
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Scenario A
Golden Ages of Automation
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
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Scenario A | Storyboard
The worldwide political situation is still tense but there aren’t anyescalations. International trade agreements have been establishedbetween Europe, USA and South Korea which encourages the globaltrade market, securing an annual average GDP growth of 1.5% inEurope and Northern America. Due to the continued acceleratedglobalization the strong economic growth of BRICS states willcontinue, averaging at about 3.5%.
Thanks to the stable economy and political situation, air traveldemand increases by an average of 5.5% annually. Even thoughprocesses are streamlined, more planes are indispensable over time.
Manual and semi-autonomous systems are being replaced by fullyautonomous systems in high risk areas to increase workplace safety.Thanks to AI, ground support vehicles now drive autonomously,reducing costs and time between overhaul for airlines and airports.Tasks like refuelling the plane with water and kerosene are fulfilledautomatically. This leads to reduced costs for airports and airlines.
für Automatisierung
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Slide 27
Scenario A | StoryboardIn 2022, the Federal Ministry of Automation is founded in Germany,based on a Japanese proof of concept in 2021. It is designed aroundthe principles of lean management and is in itself highly automatedand flexible. Its competences are: Setting standards for automatedsystems and providing certification marks, as well as workinginternationally to reduce the threat of cyber attacks and activelypushing the development of automated systems by providingsubsidies.
The federal ministries of automation of the western hemispherecollaborate in the Global Automation Treaty (GAT, 2024) toencourage investments in start-ups around automated technologiesthrough tax incentives. The demand for well educated people is veryhigh.
In disputes between stakeholders and unions in the EU, the unionsachieved a guideline, obligating the industry to offer re-education forat least 80% of the affected workforce. However, in developingcountries like India and Bangladesh, the integration of young, lowqualified workers represents a big problem, as the fight continuesbetween unemployed people and the application of automatedsystems. Bangladesh’s Attempt to ban automated systems if theytake away jobs from humans backfired, resulting in an economiccrisis in Bangladesh which is still affecting peoples lives today.
world education index
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
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Scenario A | Storyboard
In 2030 the average passenger expects to see a cheap, yetpersonalized travel experience. To meet this expectation high qualitydata around each passenger is generated and shared between thesingle service providers to achieve a comfortable, fast and easy D2Dchain.
The traffic load on the way to the airports decreases, even though airtravel demand rises. Based on worldwide standards for autonomousdriving established at GAT in 2024, automated vehicles such asdrones, cars, busses and trains prevent traffic jams, especially in thededicated autonomous lanes, where they are able to drive faster andreduce the safe distance. This significantly improves the quality ofaccess to the airport for the passenger. Autonomous cars are oftenoffered in car sharing services, creating the advantage that thepassenger doesn’t have to drive, as well as worrying about a parkingspot. The big parking lots are now used for autonomous vehiclesfrom car sharing services offered by the airport as well as for rentalparking space to preserve airport earnings.
In 2027, the first drone taxi pilot project is tested which evolved fromthe Airbus Vahana project. With this approach, even more time canbe saved during the D2D travel time.
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Slide 29
Scenario A | Storyboard
Upon arriving at the airport, the passenger checks in at the safetygate by showing his ticket and ID. The baggage is being dropped offat the automated station. The system matches the ID with the face-scanner data, screens the person and guides the passenger to hisgate on moving walkways. If the algorithms trigger a warning, thepassenger is further screened by security staff.
For airports, the integration of automation initially caused a problem.A lot less space is needed, as baggage drop, security check andemigration merge, as well as immigration, baggage claim andcustoms. The attempt to fill out these areas with more customerattractions failed in part as passenger servicing time was reduced.Later on this problem was resolved by the rising air demand,implicating an higher amount of passengers.
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
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Scenario A | Storyboard
A lot is at stake with the strong market penetration of ICT. Cybercriminals are continuously launching attacks to gain access to highquality data, but as the systems revolutionized in the recent years,major IT systems are robust, so that they detect and defend againstmost attacks independently.
In 2026 the Geneva Cyber Convention (GCC) is adopted, entailingpolitical rules for cyber warfare, prohibiting attacks on civilians (dataleaks) and attacks on critical infrastructure (trains, nuclear reactors,autonomous cars, electricity grid, …). Also the threat coming fromnon-government cyber criminals was recognized. First steps to buildan international team to defend critical infrastructure and thepopulation from those attacks worldwide were taken and sincefurther expanded.
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Slide 31
Scenario A | Storyboard
privacy ranking 2007
In addition to the high market penetration of ICT, the revolutionaryphysical automated systems effectively lower processing times forthe passenger. The intuitive interfaces for the passenger are wellaccepted by tech-savvy travelers, however older generations have ahard time trusting the new systems. As AI still has not reached ahumanoid level of intelligence, service points, customer care andother jobs that require human cognitive functions as emotions andcreativity are still occupied by humans. Media agencies mostlyreport positively about the application of new systems on behalf ofthe ministries to support user acceptance.
In the background, some ground handling tasks are still being donemanually since the architecture of planes hardly changed. However,the workforce is supported by exoskeletons and other highlyadaptable automated systems.
The high reliability level needed for the complex tasks in thebackground as well as on the interface to humans is guaranteedthrough machine certifications by the federal ministries ofautomation which confirm an average operating time of at least99.65%
After the big hacking disaster in 2023, where the database of theJohn-F.-Kennedy Airport was hacked and released to public, cyber-attacks became increasingly unsuccessful, due to robust defensesystems since then.
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Slide 32
Scenario A | Storyboard
The attitude towards data privacy is relatively unchanged comparedto 2016. Society is divided – many fear the effects of big data, butironically they still share every little bit of it if it brings them anybenefit. On the other side data privacy activists warn of thisdevelopment and demand a more transparent handling of data bybig companies. They achieve the Worldwide Data-usage Act in 2024,giving the customer the ability to object commercial data usage.
Slide 33
Scenario A | Core Messages
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Political Stability & Security situationContinuous economic growth
Political stability comparable to status quo
Development of ICTRevolutionary soft- & hardware development → high market penetration of automated systems
Investment Propensity on Automation
Tax incentives, need to keep up with market, cost cutting, …
Expectation towards personalized experience
Passengers expect highly personalized services due to high data availability
Traffic load along passenger processes
Non-invasive and highly automated security checks enable lower travel time
Slide 34
Scenario A | Timeline
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
2018
Political tensions in middle east continue
2019 2022 2023 2025 2026 2030
Critical data leak at New York JFK airport
Geneva cyberconvention regulatescyber warfare
Federal ministry of automation encourages development through legal frameworks. Industry must offer reeducation and improved workplace safety
Extensive use ofautomated travel
Fully integrated and automated security, check-in and baggage drop processes
Maiden flight Airbus Vahana
Bundesministeriumfür Automatisierung
Slide 35
Scenario A | Travel Chain
Booking & PlanningBaggage Drop, Security & Emigration/Immigration
Retail, Shopping, Lounge & Waiting
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
• Artificial Intelligence as Personal Assistant
• Passenger Screening & Profiling
• Aviation AI
• Personalized Information with regards to flight/shopping/F&B
• Personalized Routing to Gate/Shopping
Slide 36
Scenario A | Travel Chain
Gate / BoardingBus Transfer & Ground
HandlingIn-Flight / Cabin
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
• Artificial Intelligence monitors passenger throughout Terminal -> No ID Check required anymore
• Boarding optimized with respect to passenger Comfort enabled through AI
• Autonomous vehicles operate on the tarmac (Up until interface with the A/C)
• Aircraft Surveillance
• Drones support Pre-Flight Check
• No Money on board. Cash less payment through facial recognition by AI linked to boarding Ticket (Billing information)
• Automated Service Robots
• More differentiation between booking classes
Slide 37
Scenario A | Travel Chain
Baggage Claim & Customs
Customer FeedbackAircraft MRO Between
Flights
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
• AI reunites baggage & passenger on automated even escalator (Human is moved on conveyer belt)
• Screened baggage is either cleared together with passenger or rerouted to Customs
• Personal Assistant on smartphone gathers Feedback
• Facial recognition enables AI to identify current state of well-being
• Automated Anti-Germs Warfare
• No unauthorized access through Aircraft Surveillance
• Maintenance inspections by drones
Slide 38
Scenario A | Stakeholder Analysis | Full Service Carrier
OPPORTUNITIES
S WO T
STRENGTHS
FSC
• Market share
• Number of offered destinations
• Data / experience / know customer groups very well (frequent traveler programs)
• Existing alliances / co-operations
• Internal technology & system operation capabilities / know-how
• Good co-operation with their main hub(s)
WEAKNESSES
• Dependent on hub airport development
• Missing flexibility / old structures / strong unions / etc.
• Limited door-to-door capabilities / know-how
• High fix costs (e.g. pilots)
• Rather slow in innovation topics
THREATS
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
• High-end / tailored experience for customer groups
• Extending travel chain beyond classical departure and arrival / possibility to cooperate with MSP / other airlines / etc.
• Enhance efficiency of hub operations
• Too slow to cope with revolutionary development
• Difficulty in replacing humans with automations (unions: 80% of staff)
• Problems in competing with prices of LCCs
Slide 39
Scenario A | Stakeholder Analysis | Low Cost Carrier
OPPORTUNITIES
S WO T
STRENGTHS
LCC
• Consistently profitable
• Cost efficiency (outsource many services, low capital investments flexibility)
• Rather fast in innovation topics
• More flexible due to the route network choice of destinations
• Offer to the passenger
WEAKNESSES
• Offer to the passenger
• Not present at major airports
• Not compelling to high value customers
• Image issues
• Limited growth potential
• Limited internal technology & system operation capabilities / know-how
• Lower yields in general
THREATS
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
• Greater efficiency of aircraft and passenger services due to greater automation
• Change service providers who offer better services for lower costs
• Better understand customer base
• Airport and passenger handling costs are higher
• Passengers expect highly personalized services due to high data availability
• FSCs can achieve similar cost efficiency due to automated services
Slide 40
Scenario A | Stakeholder Analysis | HUB Airport
OPPORTUNITIES
S WO T
STRENGTHS
HUB
• Network of destinations
• Economies of scale (Passenger, A/C movements) and scope (synergies)
• Diversity of business segments
• High yield passengers
• Passenger differentiation
• Accessibility of intermodal transportation
• Co-operation / -branding with “home” network carrier
WEAKNESSES
• Capacity constraints due to high traffic(esp. during peak hours)
• Strong dependency on network carrier
• Long distances within terminals
• Dependence on transfer market
• Physical infrastructure development
• Often location in urban areas limits options to expand
THREATS
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
• Process optimization
• Creating new capacity
• Easing the traveler's journey
• Tailored passenger information
• Personalized advertising
• Support from the government
• Autonomous driving outcomes of automation: non-used infrastructure
• Difficulty to tackle needs of inhomogeneous passenger group through standardized full-scale automation
• Greater potential for cyber-attacks
Slide 41
Scenario A | Stakeholder Analysis | “Secondary” Airport
OPPORTUNITIES
S WO T
STRENGTHS
2ND
• More growth potential
• More regional and local stakeholder focused –ability to work together to support new routes and build airline confidence
• Proximity to destinations with high awareness and appeal
WEAKNESSES
• Few transit passengers
• Cannot stimulate growth beyond a ceiling
• Higher cost of other on-airport service providers
• Peak hour infrastructure pressure
• Consumer expectations of international passenger experience (retail etc.)
• More limited ground transport options
• Limited cargo potential
• Highly seasonal
THREATS
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
• Development of autonomous vehicles
• Easy shopping, cashless payment
• More detailed personalized passenger database existing customer base
• Regional competition dedicated to easier way of access to airport
• High investments to remain market leader (continuous development of technology)
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Slide 42
Scenario B
Inclusive DevelopmentCoevolution Instead of Revolution
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Slide 43
Scenario B | Storyboard
Until 2030 the global GDP has increased by 2,5% annually, as wellas the air travel demand, which increased 4,5% a year.
The increase of political instability and the continuing high threat ofcyber-attacks, have lead to an overall higher demand in security andreliability for automated systems. Only the best systems, in terms ofsafety and reliability, are introduced.
As politics are focused on other topics (due to political instability),automation technologies are marginally regulated by legalframeworks, what leads to few standards in this sector. Only securityrelevant processes have high requirements.
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Slide 44
Scenario B | Storyboard
Therewith, due to the high market demand physical and ICTautomation technologies have been improved continuously andintroduced stepwise as mature technologies. They are broadly usedin all phases of the journey and can be found in almost all majorairports around the world in the form of (semi-) automated systems,working with a high reliability comparative to the level of non-automated systems in 2016 and a increased economic efficiency.Examples for automated systems: fully automated security check,baggage drop off, immigration/emigration.
To address customer demands, existing MSPs have startedcollaborating on a large scale by offering integrated D2Dtransportation services. Enabled by bilateral sharing of high qualitydata between collaborating MSPs, a customer can book his journeyfrom D2D through a single portal and then experience thetransportation services of the different MSPs as one product.
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Slide 45
Scenario B | Storyboard
Therewith, due to the high market demand physical and ICTautomation technologies have been improved continuously andintroduced stepwise as mature technologies. They are broadly usedin all phases of the journey and can be found in almost all majorairports around the world in the form of (semi-) automated systems,working with a high reliability comparative to the level of non-automated systems in 2016 and a increased economic efficiency.Examples for automated systems: fully automated security check,baggage drop off, immigration/emigration.
To address customer demands, existing MSPs have startedcollaborating on a large scale by offering integrated D2Dtransportation services. Enabled by bilateral sharing of high qualitydata between collaborating MSPs, a customer can book his journeyfrom D2D through a single portal and then experience thetransportation services of the different MSPs as one product.
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Slide 46
Scenario B | Storyboard
Quality of access to airports has been enhanced in terms of travelduration, comfort and individualization: Automated technologies areperforming most of the tasks previously done by passengers duringtheir travel. Therefore, passengers have more time and can enjoycustomer tailored services along the journey for example.
The traffic load along the passenger processes has not greatlychanged: Automation has improved efficiency and process timesleading to higher airport capacities, however passenger numbershave risen simultaneously, so that the overall reduction in D2D traveltime has been moderate. A case example for this can be thefollowing: A passenger can check in his baggage in the autonomousvehicle driving him to his terminal and leave it there, and then pick itup again once he has reached his final journey destination. Thuswaiting times for baggage drop off and pick up are avoided,increasing the overall throughput capacity of the airport.
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Slide 47
Scenario B | StoryboardIn many fields, automation is found in the form of semi-automatedsystems, requiring a human operator in a supervising function. E.g.non-intrusive automated security systems have been introduced,with special checks performed by humans if necessary; Groundhandling is partly automated, with human operators still required forspecial or safety critical tasks.
Since human operators are still a required part of the (semi-)automated system and work safety has improved due to automation(physically demanding tasks are executed by machines), unions havenot opposed the introduction of automation.
New technologies in commercial aviation are introducedincrementally and therefore do not overwhelm the customer. Insteadof introducing revolutionary, immature technologies, the introducedautomatization developments are working faultless and reliable,leading to a high acceptance among passengers.
In this world automation doesn’t revolutionize the way of travellingimmediately but rather slowly and steadily, therefore it doesn’toverwhelm all involved parties (passengers, the market, allstakeholders). Revolution always leads to conflict in certain areas(regulation, passenger acceptance, unions) but a inclusivecoevolution, where human and machine work alongside each othermight result in a plausible and bright scenario for the future ofautomation in commercial aviation.
Slide 48
Scenario B | Core Messages
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Development of Air Travel DemandAirport throughput capacity and RPK increase load factor remains unchanged
Expectation Towards Personalized Experience
The passenger of 2030 demands a personalized travel experience
Evolutionary DevelopmentIncremental introduction of customer focused and faultless automatization systems
Development of Collaborative Data Management
High cooperation between MSPs integrated D2D travel
Passenger Acceptance of Automation
High acceptance for semi-automated systems among all passengers
Slide 49
Scenario B | Timeline
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
2018
Lufthansa offers integrated D2D travel service
2019 2022 2025 2029 2033 2035
BMW start series production of autonomous cars
(Semi-)automated airports show great rise in capacity, increasing profitability while simultaneously lowering landing fees
Japanese government promotes the development of an (semi-)automated airport with research funds
World’s first (semi-) automated airport emerges in Japan
Almost all major airports are (semi-)automated, with automatization being demanded and considered as normal by passengers
Car sharing available in every major city
Slide 50
Scenario B | Travel Chain
Booking & PlanningBaggage Drop, Security & Emigration/Immigration
Retail, Shopping, Lounge & Waiting
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
• Integrated planning, booking & ticketing
• Due to cooperating MSPs D2D travel products can be booked under one ticket
• Integrated D2D-travel
• Bag pick up robots trolley robots are available in all important airport areas
• Baggage can be “checked-in” inside of autonomous cars
• Fully automated security check with human operator on (only) supervising function
• Personalized travel information through personal electronics
• Info on best paths / routes through the airport, shopping suggestions, time / duration / delay information, info on destination
• Waiting areas are becoming more and more obsolete due to better (i.e. more time-efficient) connections
Slide 51
Scenario B | Travel Chain
Gate / BoardingBus Transfer & Ground
HandlingIn-Flight / Cabin
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
• Fully automated
• Exact prediction
• Display of boarding times
• Automated busses (controlled by ground / apron controller)
• Human operators still present (on / off loading of aircraft bulk cargo), but assisted by automated technologies (exoskeletons)
• Push back vehicles fully automated (but: push back command issued by human ground/apron controller)
• Highly personalized in-flight entertainment
• Recommendations based on previous travels and on travel destination
Slide 52
Scenario B | Travel Chain
Baggage Claim & Customs
Customer FeedbackAircraft MRO Between
Flights
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
• Baggage delivery in autonomous car to final destination ( integrated D2D)
• Baggage delivery directly to final destination (independent of passenger travel from airport to final destination)
• Customs procedures only automated in countries where shopping data are shared with government agencies (customs)
• Data is gathered actively (questionnaires) and passively(other data / behavior) throughout the travel
• Refueling and replenish of goods only supervised
• Inspection and deicing by drones operated by humans
• Rubbish collecting robot
Slide 53
Scenario B | Stakeholder Analysis | Full Service Carrier
OPPORTUNITIES
S WO T
STRENGTHS
FSC
• Market share
• Number of offered destinations
• Data / experience / know customer groups very well (frequent traveler programs)
• Existing alliances / co-operations
• Internal technology & system operation capabilities / know-how
• Good co-operation with their main hub(s)
WEAKNESSES
• Dependent on hub airport development
• Missing flexibility / old structures / strong unions / etc.
• Limited door-to-door capabilities / know-how
• High fix costs (e.g. pilots)
• Rather slow in innovation topics
THREATS
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
• Evolutionary tech development fits inflexible company structures
• Automation is not perceived as cost reduction measurement
• Possibility to cooperate with MSP Extending travel chain
• Choose higher revenues instead of innovations
• Problems to compete with lower prices of LCCs
• Decrease in non-aviation revenues
Slide 54
Scenario B | Stakeholder Analysis | Low Cost Carrier
OPPORTUNITIES
S WO T
STRENGTHS
LCC
• Consistently profitable
• Cost efficiency (outsource many services, low capital investments flexibility)
• Rather fast in innovation topics
• More flexible due to the route network choice of destinations
• Offer to the passenger
WEAKNESSES
• Offer to the passenger
• Not present at major airports
• Not compelling to high value customers
• Image issues
• Limited growth potential
• Limited internal technology & system operation capabilities / know-how
• Lower yields in general
THREATS
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
• Blurred lines between FSC and LCC encourages LCC to acquire FSCs
• Long-haul flights become attractive to LCCs
• Higher process & cost efficiency
• FSC can achieve similar cost efficiency
• High cooperation between MSP and FSC is not offered to LCC
• Passengers expect highly personalized services
Slide 55
Scenario B | Stakeholder Analysis | HUB Airport
OPPORTUNITIES
S WO T
STRENGTHS
HUB
• Network of destinations
• Economies of scale (Passenger, A/C movements) and scope (synergies)
• Diversity of business segments
• High yield passengers
• Passenger differentiation
• Accessibility of intermodal transportation
• Co-operation / -branding with “home” network carrier
WEAKNESSES
• Capacity constraints due to high traffic(esp. during peak hours)
• Strong dependency on network carrier
• Long distances within terminals
• Dependence on transfer market
• Physical infrastructure development
• Often location in urban areas limits options to expand
THREATS
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
• New business models for Airport
• Gradual implementation of technologies is possible
• Through the use of semi-automatization expectations of inhomogeneous passenger group can be met
• Introduction of new technologies can be more expensive due to lack of standardization
• Risk of unused / empty infrastructures
Slide 56
Scenario B | Stakeholder Analysis | “Secondary” Airport
OPPORTUNITIES
S WO T
STRENGTHS
2ND
• More growth potential
• More regional and local stakeholder focused –ability to work together to support new routes and build airline confidence
• Proximity to destinations with high awareness and appeal
WEAKNESSES
• Few transit passengers
• Cannot stimulate growth beyond a ceiling
• Higher cost of other on-airport service providers
• Peak hour infrastructure pressure
• Consumer expectations of international passenger experience (retail etc.)
• More limited ground transport options
• Limited cargo potential
• Highly seasonal
THREATS
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
• High acceptance between passengers
• Predictable passenger load and distribution
• Evolutionary progress in technology constant development
• Higher investments in technology to stay competitive
• High sophisticated customer expectations
• Risk of unused / empty infrastructures
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Slide 57
Scenario C
Security FirstAutomation in Aviation in a Hesitant World & Turbulent
Times
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Slide 58
Scenario C | Storyboard
Multilateral co-operations between Western nations become weaker.At the same time, an increasing number of threats and thereforeinsecurities hinder the establishment of strong multinationalpartnerships, while existing contracts are being broken up. Thisresults in a “reduced European Union” existing with its coremembers only. This leads to heavily fluctuating exchange rates andhigh risks and volatility on the financial markets. Moreover, after theUSA leaves the NATO due to an increasing distrust in militarycollaboration, multiple other nations follow this incident. As a result,Russia is able to establish stronger bonds under pressure with itsneighboring countries and new partners, including the USA in thesecond row as well.
In the Middle East a new alliance, called "Middle EasternLeague"(M.E.L) is founded by the UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar,Bahrain and several other Arabian countries. One part of the contractregulates freedom of trade and travel between its contract partners,preferring M.E.L. states while reducing foreign trade and transport.Meanwhile the World Bank estimates the worldwide economicalgrowth to less than 2% for the upcoming 20 years. The passenger airtraffic may increase by 4,5% due to high global population growth.
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Slide 59
Scenario C | Storyboard
While the trust between nations decreases, a rising number of cyberterrorist hacker attacks and threats affects the national security ofmany countries. Moreover, a successful threat by, so calledhacktivists against AT&T diminishes public faith in American IT,automated and intelligent systems. The occurrence is presented bymedia coverage in an exaggerating negative way. Those incidentsmake security to the key of all interest for all new strategic programsat ICAO and for all other regulations in commercial aviation. Newspecial security guidelines for automation are established in everypossible working field. Most of the existing technologies are not ableto comply with those new standards. Therefore only high-standardand expensive technologies can succeed in the market and will bedeveloped by nearly every single country or union on their own.
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Slide 60
Scenario C | Storyboard
Most of those new revolutionary technologies in automation can notbe implemented due to a lack of public faith. Passengers tend torefuse physical automated systems in comfort areas and sometimessecurity areas as well because of negative media coverage aboutformer accidents. As an future projection example: After theintroduction of fully automated “robo-taxis” at the Frankfurt airport,there has just been a slack demand and therefore those systemscould not be integrated in most of the other travel chains which areconnected to commercial aviation ground infrastructures. At thesame time, there are upcoming problems with the quality of accessat big airports. Strong growth of metropolitan areas result in hightraffic jams especially during peak hours. Automated systems couldsolve those problems but besides the strict regulations theinvestment costs are too high.
Although people try to avoid physical automated systems, most stillbuy and use latest mobile devices, such as smartphones and tabletswith AI and other revolutionary technologies. ICT stays an integralpart of a passenger’s life and social media is further established asthe most popular communication tool. In general ICT users don´tclaim about commercial data sharing if search algorithms andsoftware tools are running automated in the background.
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Slide 61
Scenario C | Storyboard
At Munich Airport an implementation of a new automated servicegoes completely wrong: A university research project introduced anapplication for smartphones to replace physical signs and airportservice staff for guidance through airport terminals. The app hasbecome a commercially successful business model which is sold toother international airports as well after a short period of timebecause unions couldn’t block the app introduction due to differentlegal frameworks in different countries. One day, there has been acomplete system hack. The flight booking system broke down aswell because of billions of faked terminal-gate search app-requests.As a result Munich Airport and all the other participating airportsremove the app and its support and return back to former terminalservice concepts which cost a multiple.
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Slide 62
Scenario C | Storyboard
The low time efficiency of most commercial aviation services andtherefore additional waiting times in queues and traffic jams lead tounpredictable travelling comfort for passengers. Moreover there is alack of incentives for collaboration between different mobility serviceproviders due to a strict legal framework. Contracts are barelynegotiable, due to new and harder job safety rules. Furthermorehigh security standards make it hard for new business partnersentering the market or establishing international businesscollaborations.
To improve the work conditions inside airports, American andGerman unions fight for the implementation of semi-automatedsystems for the airport security without reducing staff and workplacesafety and support as well e.g. with exoskeletons. In most of themodern countries it is difficult to hire young staff for simple processand production work. Moreover it is not allowed to hire immigrantsfrom foreign countries for those kinds of job. Most American airportsare under pressure to introduce a cost intensive mixture of direct andindirect airport security methods. Because of new national U.S.-security standards which have to be fulfilled by the connectedinternational airports as well the amount of incoming and outgoingU.S.-flights has to be reduced.
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Slide 63
Scenario C | Storyboard
In Europe, some airports introduce new ICT technologies in theirairport information systems to enable real-time information betweenemployees achieving a more responsible and agile ICT-system. Thisresults in a higher workplace safety and improves the economicefficiency of nearly all of the concerning systems. The genericstructure of those systems allows the implementation at most of themajor airports which have to sponsor the costs unwillingly. Unions inGermany encourage the introduction of airport information systemsin order to achieve a higher level of workplace security and safety. Inmodern international airports exoskeletons and comparabletechnologies are being used as a standard, such as in new openedairports in Istanbul, the Middle East and East Asia.
Slide 64
Scenario C | Core Messages
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Political Stability & Security SituationNATO dissolves, EU & the € struggle, Arabian countries strengthen multilateral cooperation, Russia strengthens & increases USA cooperation
Cyber Attack Threats on Automated Systems
Ongoing attacks force economy and politics to national regulation without international compatibility
Passenger Acceptance & Economic Efficiency
Low passenger acceptance & strict legal frameworks slower market penetration & too high in investment costs for automatization
Workplace Safety, Airport Security & Position of Unions
Automated Systems are implemented in background processes and in non-public areas
Security Key InterestICAO & other regulations put security as key interest for all new strategic progams
Slide 65
Scenario C | Timeline
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
2016
EU and the Euro currency struggle. Moreover, the UAE form a stronger multilateral cooperation with Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Arabian countries
2017 2020 2022 2025 2030 2035
Unions fight for automation technologies that support employees; there are hardly chances to hire young or immigrant persons
Most of the automation technologies are too high in investment costs; problems with traffic jams, access to airports and passenger processes are increasing
Opening of the world‘s largest airport in Dubai; moderate increase of air travel (4,5%) and sizes of airline alliances.
Unions fight for automation technologies that support employees. There are hardly chances to hire young or immigrant persons.
Lower air traffic but also no economical growth (<2% in 20 years & this year nearly 0%).; several governments are forced to pass new legal frameworks due to higher and securer automation but also cost pressure
Political changes in the USA and Europe; we have the big first data hack (German Telekom).
Slide 66
Scenario C | Travel Chain
Booking & PlanningBaggage Drop, Security & Emigration/Immigration
Retail, Shopping, Lounge & Waiting
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
• Personalized marketing through cookies
• Protection service for personal data
• Hidden automation without contact with customers
• Automated systems are only in contact with staff
• Information system for passengers (data collection)
• Warning systems for dangerous loads
• Data trading formats for customer data exchange / sales
• Customer profiling for understanding processes within airport
• Autonomous customer transport vehicle for people with limited mobility, but often unused because of trust issues
Slide 67
Scenario C | Travel Chain
Gate / BoardingBus Transfer & Ground
HandlingIn-Flight / Cabin
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
• Autonomous customer transport vehicle for people with limited mobility
• Less automation less trust issues by passengers
• Information systems for employees are a common auxiliary, sometimes with unreliable hardware
• Autonomous vehicle for people with limited mobility
• Exoskeletons help staff and aim for better workplace efficiency
• Information systems are generated for each airport individually
• No obvious automation
• Single information systems and real-time handling of data possible
• No worldwide standards
Slide 68
Scenario C | Travel Chain
Baggage Claim & Customs
Customer FeedbackAircraft MRO Between
Flights
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
• Baggage scanning systems and early-warning systems for dangerous loads
• Information system for incoming passengers
• Support of custom officers handling in unsecure situations
• No obvious automation
• Automation systems are not reliable enough
• Certain happenings lead to wrong investments
• Staff is supported by exoskeletons, but technology can’t replace special machinery or staff
• Information systems (if they are used) get bigger, better, and more reliable
• Every automation system means disproportinally high investment costs
Slide 69
Scenario C | Stakeholder Analysis | Full Service Carrier
OPPORTUNITIES
S WO T
STRENGTHS
FSC
• Market share
• Number of offered destinations
• Data / experience / know customer groups very well (frequent traveler programs)
• Existing alliances / co-operations
• Internal technology & system operation capabilities / know-how
• Good co-operation with their main hub(s)
WEAKNESSES
• Dependent on hub airport development
• Missing flexibility / old structures / strong unions / etc.
• Limited door-to-door capabilities / know-how
• High fix costs (e.g. pilots)
• Rather slow in innovation topics
THREATS
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
• Able to meet security regulations of hub processes
• Able to introduce automated background systems with new, standard-conform, reliable & secure ICT technology
• Able to use personalized advertisement for additional revenue
• Current flight plans might have to change due to more border controls
• Heavy increase in D2D travel times in comparison to alternatives
• Image loss after successful cyber attacks is higher for FSCs in comparison to LCCs
Slide 70
Scenario C | Stakeholder Analysis | Low Cost Carrier
OPPORTUNITIES
S WO T
STRENGTHS
LCC
• Consistently profitable
• Cost efficiency (outsource many services, low capital investments flexibility)
• Rather fast in innovation topics
• More flexible due to the route network choice of destinations
• Offer to the passenger
WEAKNESSES
• Offer to the passenger
• Not present at major airports
• Not compelling to high value customers
• Image issues
• Limited growth potential
• Limited internal technology & system operation capabilities / know-how
• Lower yields in general
THREATS
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
• New business model around a more seamless travel chain
• Customer shift from FSC to LCC due to lower automation
• New routes due to new local networks
• Route network diminished and / or difficult to negotiate new routes
• Service providers are failing due to cyber attacks
• Greater possibility of employee union membership
• Cost risk due to high security standards
Slide 71
Scenario C | Stakeholder Analysis | HUB Airport
OPPORTUNITIES
S WO T
STRENGTHS
HUB
• Network of destinations
• Economies of scale (Passenger, A/C movements) and scope (synergies)
• Diversity of business segments
• High yield passengers
• Passenger differentiation
• Accessibility of intermodal transportation
• Co-operation / -branding with “home” network carrier
WEAKNESSES
• Capacity constraints due to high traffic(esp. during peak hours)
• Strong dependency on network carrier
• Long distances within terminals
• Dependence on transfer market
• Physical infrastructure development
• Often location in urban areas limits options to expand
THREATS
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
• Implementing of automated security technologies in a higher degree
• Financial support of automated assisted systems by the (regional) state e.g. for disabled or elderly workers
• Investment abilities higher compared to other airports
• Lower ability to manage higher passenger throughput (without automation)
• Cost intensive implementation of legal framework in automation
• Customer acceptance
and satisfaction
• Increasing bureaucracy
• Loss of turnover due to stricter passenger processes
Slide 72
Scenario C | Stakeholder Analysis | “Secondary” Airport
OPPORTUNITIES
S WO T
STRENGTHS
2ND
• More growth potential
• More regional and local stakeholder focused –ability to work together to support new routes and build airline confidence
• Proximity to destinations with high awareness and appeal
WEAKNESSES
• Few transit passengers
• Cannot stimulate growth beyond a ceiling
• Higher cost of other on-airport service providers
• Peak hour infrastructure pressure
• Consumer expectations of international passenger experience (retail etc.)
• More limited ground transport options
• Limited cargo potential
• Highly seasonal
THREATS
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
• Consistent security standards at every airport
• Synergy effects
• More national flights
• Critical infrastructure to the airport
• High investments due to security risks
• Strong unions
• Customer acceptance and satisfaction
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Slide 73
SynthesisSynthesis of Scenario Results
Slide 74
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Synthesis | Scenario Overview
To give a brief overview, the factors that decisively influenceautomation to drive it into a direction within the three scenarios.Therefore these factors can be seen as the points in which the threescenarios differ the most. For Example, the Revolutionarytechnologies with a high market penetration of scenario ‘Golden Agesof Automation’ can only be achieved with extremely strong growth ofAir traffic demand coupled with a ministry supporting automation,which is not present in the scenarios ‘Inclusive Development’ or‘Security First’. In contrary, Politics, Regulations and a comparativelyslow growth in Air traffic demand is what hinders automation tospread in the Security first scenario.
Another key factor that sets the rails for either one of the threescenarios is passenger acceptance, which is strongly tied with thereliability of the automated system. The low passenger Acceptance isanother reason why technologies, though highly advanced (more thanin scenario Inclusive Dev.), ultimately fail to penetrate the market. Inscenario ‘Inclusive Development’ the evolutionary and inclusivedevelopment of automation leads to a passenger acceptance, that iseven higher than in scenario ‘Golden Ages of Automation’ becausethe technology doesn’t overwhelm the passenger. These six factorsresult in, or are at least closely tied with, previously mentioned factors.
BC
A
Slide 75
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Golden Ages of Automation
Inclusive Development Security First
Synthesis | Scenario Overview
INCRE-ASING
DECRE-ASING
MIXED / SQ.
Stable in most regions & ministries for automation
Politics & regulations do not hinder automation
High standards for new technology slow down market penetration
Strong growth
5.5% p.a.
Moderate growth
4.5% p.a.
Slow growth
<4.5% p.a.
Revolutionary technology with high market penetration
Evolutionary technology with high market penetration
Revolutionary technology with low market penetration
Politics & Regulations
Air Traffic
Demand
Degree of Automation
Slide 76
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Golden Ages of Automation
Inclusive Development Security First
Synthesis | Scenario Overview
INCRE-ASING
DECRE-ASING
MIXED / SQ.
Machine certification confirms operating reliability of 99.65%
Machine certification confirms operating reliability of 99.65%
Reliability is low because of cyber attacks
Strong among younger generations; low among older generations
Passengers are included in stepwise development
Low acceptance due to low reliability
High efficiency through economies of scale
High passenger demand but only stepwise market introduction
Low reliability, low passenger acceptance and high regulations
Reliability
Passenger
Acceptance
Economic Efficiency
Slide 77
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Synthesis | It’s a Matter of Perspective
If technological innovations are beneficial always depends on astakeholder’s perspective, which varies in each scenario.
Example: Fast pace development of technology in scenario A wouldmake it vary hard for regional airports to compete. Full marketpenetration of baggage carrying robots at international airports wouldbe rather negative. As it would entail high investment costs withoutadditional revenue.
The following three slides show in detail how stakeholder perspectiveson technological innovations might vary. As an example passengerexperience is compared to advantages for airlines. Both perspectivesare driven by different factors: advantages for airlines are ratherrationally driven while passenger experiences are more emotional.
If an innovation is perceived as positive by most stakeholders, strongmarket penetration is likely to happen, as these interest groups will bepushing automation (upper right square). If a technology is perceivedby major stakeholders as rather negative it can be assumed thatmarket penetration will be difficult or even impossible to achieveunder given circumstances (lower right square, especially alltechnologies below black curve).
ADVANTAGES TO AIRLINE
&PASSENGER EXPERIENCE
Slide 78
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Synthesis | It’s a Matter of Perspective
Passenger Experience driven by:
• Emotions
• Acceptance
• Time efficiency
• Joy of use
• First use barriers
• Cost advantages
Advantages for Airlines driven by:
• Rationality
• Cost advantages
• Optimized processes
• Marketing
C
AutonomousTransport for people with limited mobility
B
ABig Data for
personalization
B A
CC
Autonomous Cars
A
B
PASSENGER EXPERIENCE
AD
VA
NTA
GE
S
TO
AIR
LIN
E
Slide 79
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Synthesis | Automation Will Come- but When, Where and how Much?
Human
manually
executes task
Human
executes task
Human is operator
Human actively monitors the system
Human is available in critical situations
Human is not in the loop
No system present
Supportive system information
System executes task
System operates and executes
System executes standard operations independently
System operates independently and handles all situations
Fully manualManual completion
Semi-automated process
Active supervisory
Passive supervisory
Fully automated
DEGREE OF AUTOMATION
SY
ST
EM
TA
SK
SM
AN
UA
L T
AS
KS
ABC CA
Slide 80
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Synthesis | Will Automation be Hidden from the Passenger?
nonvisible
VISIBLENON-VISIBLE
KNOWN
UNKNOWN
baggage-claim
video surveillance
continuous biometric scanning
ground support vehicles non-humanoid service robots
video tracking
data acquisition
baggage carrying robotsexoskeletons
boarding gates
Q
Q
Q
Q
A
B
C
Status Quo
Golden Ages of Automation
Inclusive Development
Security First
A BC
B
A
A
A B
CC A
B
A
A B
Slide 81
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Synthesis | Tendencies in Different Scenarios
VISIBLENON-VISIBLE
KNOWN
UNKNOWN
SCENARIO BHigh user acceptance leads to visible and known applications of evolutionary automation
SCENARIO CDistrust paired with low user acceptance results in hidden automation: surveillance and security dominate the applications
SCENARIO AAutomation finds application in every aspect of commercial air travel. Politics pave the way for revolutionary technologies
Slide 82
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Synthesis | Business Applications
Seamless Travel Chain
Blurring of FSC
and LCC Business Models
Many mobility service providersemerge to cooperate with airlinesand airports to offer morepersonalized services and betterpassenger travel experiences.
Full-Service Carriers and Low-Cost Carriers converge: FSC canincrease cost efficiency andtherefore reduce their priceswhereas LCC can offer morepersonalized services and expandto new customer segments.
Highly Valuable
Data
Automation needs and generatesdata. Analytics of passenger datacan be of high value to specificstakeholders, e.g. analyzingpassenger flows throughoutairports for future airportplanning.
Slide 83
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Synthesis | Take Home Messages
Less a business model but more a marketing strategy could beabusing the uncertainty around the ecologic efficiency of automation.Whether automation will be ecologically efficient or not is uncertain.This can be used for marketing purposes, depicting highly automatedAirports as ecologically efficient and therefore ‘green’ can result in alot of positive publicity. Only an elaborate and expensive study mightreveal if automation is “truly green”.
Data generation will be important in many different areas(personalized user experience, personalized commercials etc.) andtherefore Airlines and Airports will be eager to extract as muchinformation as possible from the customer. In some cases thepassenger will happily provide that information, but in some cases hewon’t know that information is being extracted, e.g. while using apersonal flight assistance app. Passengers will give away morepersonal data than ever before, whether they like it or not.!
The emotional aspect, that the passenger as a stakeholder brings tothe table can’t be overlooked. In none of the three scenarios there'seven a chance that cognitive, humanoid robots will replace a humanin a supervising function. Further, no Humanoid AI will replace ahuman cabin crew member during flight because of their utmostimportance as a mediator in conflicts.
The vast amount of opportunities like increase in efficiency,workplace safety etc. that automation can offer for commercialaviation makes it an inevitability. Definitely not every part of the D2Dtravel chain will be automated, but some parts of it like the baggagedrop will be automated for sure.
Since automation will be coming stakeholders will have to innovateto dominate other competitors. Especially in a fast developingindustry that is coupled to informatics, mechanics and electronics,like automation it is detrimental to stay ahead of the yourcompetitors. Even small improvements like in scenario inclusivedevelopment can generate a lot of success since the demand will behigh.
Slide 84
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Synthesis | Ecology
Uncertain of role of ecology
Slide 85
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Synthesis | Big Data
Passengers will give away more personal data than ever before!
High value of data generation
Slide 86
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Synthesis | Human Role
Premium services and emotional tasks (Passenger sickness, clarifying arguments) will remain personal services conducted by the cabin crew.
Slide 87
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Synthesis | Turning Back?
In certain areas of commercial aviation automation is inevitable.
There’s no turning back!
Slide 88
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Synthesis | Innovators
Innovators will be winning
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Slide 89
Conclusions & Outlook
Slide 90
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Conclusions & Outlook | Uncertain Future
The future for automation in commercial aviation is uncertain…
…but our scenarios can help to improve the understanding of developments and impacts
…but we can generate strategies for each of the scenarios to make reasonable decisions
Slide 91
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Conclusions & Outlook | Automation Impact
Will automation be successful and have a positive impact on the aviation market?
Yes! However, …
... different stakeholders might have different reasons to implement automated systems and will see different implications on their business models.
... the reliability (incl. cyber security) and economic efficiency of the systems will be key.
... the reachable degree of automation will be dependent of many different factors (while ICT is an enabler in most scenarios, physical automation is lagging behind).
... customers will become sensible, if they have to pay with their personal data.
Slide 92
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Conclusions & Outlook | Outlook
Scenario planning helps to expand the range of possibilities we can see, while keeping us from drifting into unbridled science fiction.
Political Stability & Security situation
Development of ICT
Development of Air Travel Demand
Personalized Experience
Passenger Acceptance
Cyber Attack Threats
Economic Efficiency
Legal Framework
Demographic Development
Market Structure
Slide 92
Slide 93
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
Thank you for your Attention!
Slide 94
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017
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