Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
Tennessee AgroForestry
Information for Strategic Planning for Tennessee Agriculture
Prepared by University of Tennessee Agricultural Modeling & Analysis Group, Drs. Kim Jensen ([email protected]) and Burton C. English ([email protected]), and Mr. Jamey Menard ([email protected]), Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
Tennessee AgroForestry
AIM‐AG was established in 1998 as part of the Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, Agricultural Experiment Station. The mission of AIM‐AG is to assess and project the impacts of agri‐industry development on the Tennessee economy and to analyze market opportunities for economically efficient agri‐industry development within the state. <http://aimag.ag.utk.edu/>
Objective‐To provide agroforestry industry information and market analysis that will assist the strategic planning process to guide future growth of the industry in the state of Tennessee.
Information provided in the Flyers includes: a) A comparison of basic agricultural information (market value of crops/livestock, land use, yields
per acre, input use, and market access indicators) between Tennessee and other neighbors within the region.
b) A comparison of basic food and fiber products manufacturing information (value of shipments, location quotients) between Tennessee and other neighbors within the region.
c) Economic impacts from both primary and secondary agriculture and forestry for Tennessee, including multiplier measures.
d) Trends in production and comparison with our neighbors for the major crop and livestock subsectors.
e) Comparison of Tennessee with our neighbors across rural demographics including population, income, and education, as well as farmer demographics.
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
The purpose of this information is to foster strategic planning discussion about how Tennessee’s ag& forestry base compares with its neighbors.
First, an overview of the state’s farm product sales and net farm income compared with our neighbors is presented.
Second, more detailed information comparing specific commodities is presented.
Page 3
Net Farm Income, by State, 2011 (1,000 $)
AL AR GA KY MO MS NC SC TN VA US
Ratio Highest to TN
$547,235 $1,422,739 $2,463,208 $1,508,656 $3,333,185 $1,254,768 $3,006,876 $445,712 $799,059 $752,509 $117,907,650 4.17
Market Value of Ag & Forestry Products Sold from Farms, by State, 2011 (1,000 $ )
AL AR GA KY MO MS NC SC TN VA US
Ratio Highest to TN
$5,674,552 $9,164,985 $9,824,350 $6,126,583 $11,064,111 $6,287,625 $11,940,940 $3,049,058 $4,467,283 $4,239,589 $418,050,919 2.67
Market Value of Agricultural & Forestry Products, by State, 2011 Net Farm Income, by State, 2011
Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Market Value & Farm Income
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Rankings Crops & Livestock
Page 4
Commodity
TN Rank (2006‐2011)
Food grains 6
Feed grains 4
Cotton 5
Oil crops 6
Meatanimals 5
Dairy 6
Poultry 6
Misc. livestock 6
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Land Use
- 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Alabama Arkansas
Georgia Kentucky
Mississippi Missouri
North Carolina South Carolina
Tennessee Virginia
Million Acres
Cropland used for crops Idle cropland Cropland pasturePasture Forest UrbanRural Transportation
• All except SC and VA have more total land area than TN.
• Only MO, AR, and KY have a greater amount of land used as cropland.
• Tennessee has over 24 million acres of land; Missouri has 41.7 million acres.
• In 2007, Tennessee had an estimated 6 million acres (25%) defined as cropland.
• 4,406 million acres in row crops, close grown grains, hay, vegetables, and orchards.
• 1.2 million acres were in pasture that used to be in crops.
• Nearly 1/2 million acres are cropland that is idled.
Land Use, by State, 2007
Pasture, 2,093
Forest, 13,913
Urban, 1,594 Rural
Trans., 458
Cropland used for crops, 4,406
Idle cropland,
410
Cropland pasture, 1,203
Other, 6,019
Page 5
Proportion of Crop, Pasture, and Forest Lands, by State, 2007 Tennessee Land Use, 2007
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
Soybeans Cotton Corn Hay
TobaccoBurley Type 31 Light Air Cured Burley Wheat
(bu per acre) (lbs per acre) (bu per acre) (tons per acre) (pounds per acre) (bu per acre)
AL 45 952 98 2.6 59AR 43 1,083 195 1.21 55GA 37 1,027 180 2.5 49KY 40 68 2.07 2,050 62MO 29.5 1,033 75 1.44 57MS 45 970 165 2.6 57NC 39 993 117 2.51 1,900 57SC 34 918 122 2.2 53TN 38 834 85 2.01 1,810 63VA 42 1,129 103 2.32 1,750 65US 39.6 849 123.4 2.13 2,021 47.2Rank 7th 9th 8th 8th 3rd of 5 2nd
505864677070
8080
100115
80
0 50 100 150
NCTNSCGAALVAARKYMSMOUS
Acres
Median Farm SizeRatio of Crop Sales to Fertilizer & Ag. Chemical Expenditures, 2007
State2007 Fert. & Ag. Chem.
Expenses ($1,000)2007 Value of Crop Sales
($1,000)Ratio of Crop Sales to Fert. &
Ag. Chem. ExpendituresAL $253,332 $676,987 2.7AR $764,752 $2,900,973 3.8GA $603,986 $2,142,270 3.5KY $409,518 $1,404,769 3.4MO $922,014 $3,494,938 3.8MS $483,756 $1,668,028 3.4NC $604,960 $2,606,279 4.3SC $217,338 $798,490 3.7TN $428,115 $1,147,786 2.7VA $265,385 $858,301 3.2US $28,182,109 $143,657,928 5.1
Crop Yields, 2012
Page 6
Tennessee: Crop Yields
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
• Tennessee has 6 marketing cooperatives, ranking 8th.
• 92 farmers markets, with an average of .019 farmers markets per 1,000 population.
• 728 farms producing and delivering commodity under production contracts, with these primarily being broiler operations.
• NC largest number, arising from broilers, hogs & pigs, turkeys, and eggs.
911
57
2220
86
13
4226
729
3440
560
40
5137
1236
5660
1366
53
0 25 50 75
AlabamaArkansasGeorgia
KentuckyMississippiMissouri
North CarolinaTennessee
VirginiaNumber of Cooperatives, by State, 2010
Total Supply & Service Marketing
Page 7
State Broilers Eggs Pullets Turkeys
Custom Fed Cattle
Hogs and Pigs
Other cattle,
livestock
Grains and
Oilseeds
Veg, Melons, Potatoes
Other crops Total
AL 2,370 443 184 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 34 10 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 3,023AR 2,416 531 247 257 ‐‐‐ 119 266 ‐‐‐ 3 ‐‐‐ 3,540GA 2,173 517 215 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 25 9 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 2,910KY 462 90 40 1 ‐‐‐ 28 67 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 682MS 1,404 205 69 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 38 46 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 1,759MO 366 12 67 329 7 256 121 ‐‐‐ 5 ‐‐‐ 1,189NC 1,838 448 226 522 ‐‐‐ 1,522 68 4 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 4,351SC 397 54 24 ‐‐‐ 4 147 5 3 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 643TN 547 90 40 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 30 22 ‐‐‐ 1 ‐‐‐ 728VA 523 76 29 218 9 37 84 1 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 962
Tennessee: Marketing
Farms Producing & Delivering Under Production Contracts
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
• 2011 TN value manufacturing shipments was nearly $17.9 billion.
• Tennessee ranks 4th behind GA, MO, and NC.
• 2011 TN value of beverage & tobacco products manufacturing shipments was nearly $5.6 billion.
• Other states with a higher value of shipments include NC and VA.
Page 8
Tennessee Value of Shipments ($1,000)
Year Food Manufacturing (NAICS 311)
Beverage & Tobacco Products (NAICS 312)
2004 $13,561,974 $3,485,251 2005 $14,539,810 $3,702,676 2006 $14,120,493 $4,063,730 2007 $16,239,145 $4,167,272 2008 $17,723,753 $4,608,430 2009 $16,234,517 $4,720,518 2010 $16,777,791 $4,942,316 2011 $17,852,162 $5,556,564
Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Food, Beverage, and Tobacco
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 9
Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Textiles, Apparel, and Leather
∙ Tennessee’s growth rate in textile mills manufacturing shipments between 2004 and 2011 declined an average of 3.8%, textile product mills manufacturing shipments declined an average of 4.1%, while apparel shipments decline an average of 9.1% and leather products an average of 14.7%.
Tennessee Value of Shipments ($1,000)
YearTextile Mills (NAICS 313) Textile Product Mills
(NAICS 314)
Apparel Manufacturing (NAICS 315)
Leather & Allied Products (NAICS 316)
2004 $1,542,159 $858,949 $818,231 $209,4042005 $1,513,601 $1,043,737 $810,161 $193,3672006 $1,557,102 $851,967 $672,959 $151,5092007 $1,424,116 $844,9712008 $1,412,137 $970,2942009 $1,003,024 $759,012 $482,9442010 $1,049,432 $716,7162011 $1,112,345 $583,628
‐13.1%
‐2.9% ‐3.0% ‐4.5% ‐3.8%
0.5%
‐4.5%
‐15.0%
‐10.0%
‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
AL GA NC SC TN VA Avg
Avg. Annual Growth in Textile Mills Shipments, 2004‐2011
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 10
Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Sawmilling
• 2011 TN shipments from sawmills and wood preservation facilities were valued at $331.7 million.
• Top three states having the largest value of shipments for sawmills & wood preservation are AL, GA, and VA.
• Tennessee ranks 9th for value of shipments
Sawmills & Wood Preservation (NAICS 3211) Value of Shipments ($1,000)Year Alabama Arkansas Georgia Kentucky Mississippi Missouri N. Carolina S. Carolina Tennessee Virginia
2004 $1,504,243 $1,421,054 $1,790,663 $546,245 $1,278,867 $324,612 $1,506,719 $1,052,167 $633,026 $1,116,153 2005 $1,820,376 $1,583,655 $1,924,677 $614,215 $1,329,218 $365,108 $1,645,252 $1,191,221 $599,847 $1,108,065 2006 $1,946,782 $1,486,313 $1,891,530 $676,415 $1,301,270 $351,470 $1,600,741 $1,061,203 $601,055 $1,589,485 2007 $1,449,106 $1,140,427 $1,909,158 $604,559 $1,234,739 $338,384 $1,372,775 $1,006,104 $537,090 $1,258,223 2008 $1,379,999 $988,295 $1,770,731 $517,076 $1,037,449 $287,777 $1,172,076 $757,728 $412,529 $1,168,088 2009 $1,016,762 $884,051 $1,446,925 $417,219 $945,793 $238,792 $976,154 $619,457 $210,411 $950,072 2010 $1,332,896 $924,390 $1,699,204 $493,712 $862,044 $273,144 $1,181,705 $748,389 $397,268 $1,011,322 2011 $1,374,363 $845,234 $1,607,530 $475,364 $888,823 $284,782 $1,204,331 $723,836 $331,657 $1,012,695
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 11
Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Pulp and Paper
• In 2011, the value of pulp, paper, & paperboard shipments from Tennessee was $2.5 billion.
• The top three states having the largest value of shipments for pulp, paper, & paperboard mills are AL, GA, and SC.
• Of the surrounding states for 2011, Tennessee ranks 4th for value of shipments, exceeding AR, KY, MS, NC, and VA.
Pulp, Paper, & Paperboard Mills (NAICS 3221) Value of Shipments ($1,000)Year Alabama Arkansas Georgia Kentucky Mississippi Missouri N. Carolina S. Carolina Tennessee Virginia
2004 $5,557,502 $2,287,020 $4,643,749 $1,524,165 $1,443,782 ND $1,901,610 $3,617,887 $1,761,834 $2,301,653
2005 $5,843,954 $2,385,229 $4,777,343 $1,519,723 $1,452,877 ND $2,090,241 $3,897,336 $1,931,760 $2,297,329
2006 $6,449,731 $2,634,474 $5,226,589 $1,612,950 $1,532,809 ND $1,895,874 $4,010,302 $2,087,673 $2,412,839
2007 $7,156,365 $2,226,601 $5,181,897 $1,493,281 $1,461,579 ND $2,044,860 $4,459,808 $2,273,168 $2,348,089
2008 $7,357,513 $2,415,355 $5,580,592 $1,707,524 $1,318,065 ND $2,077,130 $4,659,105 $2,571,086 $2,537,020
2009 $6,613,024 $2,267,968 $4,853,666 $1,802,688 $1,236,375 ND $1,678,864 $4,442,022 $2,132,834 $2,059,307
2010 $6,720,529 $2,436,833 $5,286,913 $1,791,534 $1,490,782 ND $1,595,776 $4,603,084 $2,396,822 $2,363,451
2011 $7,030,127 $2,457,655 $5,993,157 $1,786,652 $1,466,690 ND $1,692,199 $4,586,023 $2,547,682 $1,907,987
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 12
Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Furniture
• In 2011, the value of shipments of furniture & related products was $1.3 billion.
• For 2011, the top three states having the largest value of shipments for furniture & related products are NC, MS, and GA.
• Of the surrounding states for 2011, Tennessee ranks 6th for value of shipments, exceeding Missouri’s, Arkansas’, S. Carolina’s and Kentucky’s shipment values.
Furniture & Related Products (NAICS 337) Value of Shipments ($1,000)
Year Alabama Arkansas Georgia Kentucky Mississippi Missouri N. Carolina S. Carolina Tennessee Virginia
2004 $1,882,028 $997,823 $2,094,320 $675,723 $3,790,925 $1,522,425 $7,344,719 $469,592 $2,371,656 $2,339,149
2005 $2,188,964 $857,357 $2,124,407 $754,233 $3,922,734 $1,695,969 $7,555,390 $860,058 $2,467,588 $2,659,724
2006 $2,379,164 $833,970 $2,308,784 $815,873 $3,986,241 $1,686,681 $7,399,719 $951,717 $2,485,411 $2,930,741
2007 $1,289,013 $881,623 $2,378,549 $719,265 $4,161,174 $1,371,864 $7,684,473 $759,022 $2,278,579 $2,481,141
2008 $1,985,898 $876,977 $2,170,431 $673,698 $4,301,543 $1,092,109 $6,534,536 $606,086 $2,110,060 $2,090,629
2009 $1,443,418 $731,180 $1,736,247 $532,354 $3,504,314 $775,010 $5,084,560 $577,656 $1,540,337 $1,711,513
2010 $1,410,824 $772,510 $1,722,025 $0 $3,600,336 $744,451 $5,108,035 $588,925 $1,446,508 $1,639,141
2011 $1,529,765 $681,626 $1,723,166 $0 $3,489,351 $764,249 $5,464,121 $634,034 $1,336,446 $1,538,383
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
($1,000) Furniture and Related Products Value of Shipments, 2004‐2011
AL AR GA KY MO MS NC SC TN VA
1.7%
‐4.9%‐2.3%
‐3.9%
‐0.9%
‐8.4%
‐3.6%
8.3%
‐7.4%‐5.1%
‐2.6%
‐10.0%
‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%AL AR GA KY MS MO NC SC TN VA Avg
Avg. Annual Growth in Furniture & Related Prod. Shipments, 2004‐2011
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 13
Tennessee & Our Neighbors: Manufacturing Overview
*LQ = (Emp(j,k)/Emp(j))/(Emp(k)/Emp), where j = state and k = industry. Generally, LQ>1 suggests relative "comparative advantage" with respect to skilled labor pool for that industry. These industries are shaded in orange.
Location Quotients for Labor in Manufacturing*Industry AL AR GA KY MS MO NC SC TN VADog & Cat Food Manuf 1.04 0.83 0.37 0.51 0.30 3.43 0.25 1.12 1.50 0.74Other Animal Food Manuf 1.07 1.08 0.86 2.25 0.98 1.31 1.07 0.26 0.23 0.83Flour Milling & Malt Manuf 0.09 2.98 0.35 0.41 0.85 1.34 1.44 0.07 0.86 0.38Wet Corn Milling 0.72 0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.94 0.54 1.21 5.31 0.00Soybean & Other Oilseed Processing 0.52 0.58 1.22 1.00 1.73 1.29 0.26 1.54 2.44 0.00Fats & Oils Refining & Blending 2.13 1.46 0.68 1.33 0.00 0.88 0.36 0.47 1.52 1.25Breakfast Cereal Manuf 0.00 0.51 1.77 0.00 0.00 3.10 0.36 0.00 2.32 0.00Sugar Cane Mills & Refining 0.25 0.00 3.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 1.16 2.60Chocolate & Confectionery Manuf from Cacao beans 0.00 0.05 1.17 0.00 0.00 3.35 0.23 3.37 1.63 0.56Confectionery Manuf from Purchased Chocolate 0.21 0.08 0.50 0.46 0.06 1.06 0.41 0.31 4.29 3.19Nonchocolate Confectionery Manuf 0.13 0.11 2.31 0.81 0.00 0.07 1.03 0.09 3.27 0.58Frozen Food Manuf 0.19 2.62 0.24 2.43 0.67 0.81 0.14 1.84 1.80 0.27Fruit & Vegetable Canning, Pickling, & Drying 0.00 1.03 0.43 1.32 0.50 0.44 2.13 0.99 2.13 0.73Fluid Milk & Butter Manuf 0.71 0.50 0.24 3.04 0.92 0.89 0.44 1.47 1.49 2.35Cheese Manuf 0.17 0.15 0.27 1.10 0.00 6.57 0.04 0.42 0.63 0.00Dry, Condensed, & Evaporated Dairy Product Manuf 0.00 0.02 0.16 1.65 0.00 3.94 0.00 0.00 1.44 3.48Ice Cream & Frozen Dessert Manuf 2.08 0.61 0.40 0.74 0.00 3.22 1.07 0.39 0.60 0.21Animal (except poultry) Slaughtering, Rendering, & Processing 0.45 0.32 0.58 1.31 0.55 2.00 1.53 0.97 1.00 1.25Poultry Processing 1.63 1.47 1.11 0.44 1.78 0.41 0.92 1.18 0.46 0.76Bread & Bakery Product Manuf 0.75 0.60 1.11 1.12 0.40 0.94 1.23 1.24 1.38 1.06Cookie, Cracker, & Pasta Manuf 0.16 0.45 0.98 2.76 0.22 0.90 1.09 0.65 1.98 0.86Tortilla Manuf 0.00 0.04 4.03 0.24 0.00 0.01 0.74 0.00 1.71 0.13Snack Food Manuf 0.89 0.90 1.44 0.83 0.09 0.19 1.02 0.19 1.76 1.97Coffee & Tea Manuf 1.13 0.01 2.23 0.90 0.01 0.65 0.89 0.74 0.50 2.11Flavoring Syrup & Concentrate Manuf 0.00 0.06 4.94 1.13 0.05 0.40 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.00Seasoning & Dressing Manuf 0.67 0.48 1.16 1.78 1.27 1.86 0.24 1.49 1.15 0.58All Other Food Manuf 0.25 0.16 1.26 2.69 0.09 1.35 1.70 0.32 0.37 1.16Soft Drink & Ice Manuf 1.27 0.36 0.70 1.07 0.56 0.63 0.93 1.35 2.34 1.44Breweries 0.07 0.33 1.12 0.01 0.01 3.16 1.32 0.08 0.04 2.58Wineries 0.01 0.21 0.19 0.38 0.00 2.02 1.78 0.10 0.64 4.67
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 14
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
2000 2003 2006 2009 2011
($1,000)Direct TIO from Ag,Forestry, & Manufacturing,
2000‐2011, Tennessee
AgricultureForestryFood, Fiber, & Forest Prod Manuf
2000‐2011 TN economic growth 11.4% per year.
Agroforestry growth rate 7.7% per year.
2009 and 2011 average only 1.3% for economy and 0.1% for agro‐forestry.
For agroforestry between 2000 and 2011, agriculture had the largest average growth at 10.9% per year, followed by food, fiber, and forest products manufacturing at 7.9%, and forestry at 2.0%.
Tennessee Total Industrial Output (TIO) and Employment, 2011: AgroForestry & State
AgroForestry Agriculture Forestry
Food, Fiber, & Forest Products
ManufacturingTotal Tennessee
EconomyAgroForestry % of Total Economy
TIO ($1,000) Direct $43,609 $31,061 $12,548 $32,364 $499,904 8.70%Total $66,359 $46,712 $19,647 $48,797 13.30%
Employment (Jobs)
Direct 176,282 136,815 39,467 78,218 3,517,918 5.00%Total 337,880 246,885 90,995 188,113 9.60%
AgroForestry directly contributed $43.6 billion to the Tennessee economy in 2011, or about 8.7% of the overall economy. When including multiplier effects, the contribution was about $66.3 billion. This represents about 13.3% of the overall economy. AgroForestry contributed 176,282 jobs directly, and with multiplier effects this increased to 337,880 jobs. AgroForestry employs about 5% of the jobs directly and 9.6% of the jobs with multiplier effects.
Economic Impacts from AgroForestry
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 15
Agricultural inputs $1.7 billion in direct economic activity.
With multiplier effects, economic impacts are $2.6 billion.
Lawn and garden equipment and pesticide and other agricultural chemicals comprise over 68% of the direct economic activity from agricultural input supply industries.
Commercial logging and forestry provide $174.8 million directly and $293.1 million with multiplier effects.
Logging comprises about 92% of primary forestry economic activity.
Percent of Direct TIO from Agricultural Inputs, 2011
34%
34%
10%
9%7% 6%
Lawn & Garden Equipment Manuf
Pesticide & Other Ag Chemical Manuf
Farm Machinery & Equipment Manuf
Ag/Forestry Support Activities
Lime & Gypsum Product Manuf
Fertilizer Manuf
Percent of Direct TIO from Forestry Inputs, 2011
92%
8%
Commercial Logging
Forestry, Forest Products, & Timber Tract Production
Estimated Economic Impacts from Agricultural Inputs, 2011 (1,000 $)
TIO Employment (Jobs)Direct Multiplier Total Direct Multiplier Total
Lawn & Garden Equipment Manuf $591,469 1.47 $869,312 1,449 2.30 3,331Pesticide & Other Ag Chemical Manuf $580,254 1.42 $826,091 329 5.92 1,949Farm Machinery & Equipment Manuf $165,429 1.50 $248,890 302 2.90 877Ag/Forestry Support Activities $157,346 1.90 $299,379 7,009 1.16 8,132Lime & Gypsum Product Manuf $127,554 1.76 $224,776 276 3.37 930
Fertilizer Manuf $101,687 1.62 $165,013 84 5.50 462
Total $1,723,739 $2,633,522 9,450 15,680
Estimated Economic Impacts from Forestry Inputs, 2011 Commercial Logging $161,629 1.66 $268,329 2,745 1.39 3,809Forestry, Forest Products, & Timber Tract Production $13,198 1.88 $24,783 57 5.05 286
Total $174,827 $293,112 2,801 4,095
Economic Impacts from Input Supply
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 16
Largest direct economic activity cattle ranching and farming ($586.3 million), grain farming ($537.4 million), poultry and egg production ($523.8 million), oilseed farming ($461.3 million), cotton farming ($401.1 million), other crop farming ($337.1 million), greenhouse/ nursery ($316.7 million), and dairy cattle and milk production ($179.1 million).
Largest number of employees grain farming (23,391), oilseed farming (13,182), cattle ranching and farming (10,035), animal production (except cattle/poultry/eggs) (6,823), greenhouse/nursery (5,270), cotton farming (4,446), tobacco farming (3,150), and dairy cattle and milk production (2,854).
For each job created in the industry,
‐Poultry and egg production: .84 additional jobs
‐Cattle ranching & farming: .57 additional jobs
‐Other crop farming: .60 additional jobs
‐Cotton farming: .57 additional jobs
are created in other industries through multiplier effects.
Estimated Economic Impacts from Agriculture, 2011 (1,000 $)
TIO Employment (Jobs)
Direct Multiplier Total% of Total Direct Multiplier Total
Cattle Ranching & Farming $586,323 1.83 $1,070,727 15.8% 10,035 1.57 15,797
Grain Farming $537,449 1.50 $805,673 14.5% 23,391 1.13 26,347
Poultry & Egg Production $523,825 1.47 $768,362 14.1% 2,197 1.84 4,043
Oilseed Farming $461,334 1.38 $635,812 12.4% 13,182 1.15 15,124
Cotton Farming $401,123 1.57 $629,159 10.8% 4,446 1.57 6,968
All Other Crop Farming $337,100 1.58 $533,671 9.1% 3,726 1.60 5,943Greenhouse, Nursery, & Floriculture Production $316,700 1.31 $416,203 8.5% 5,270 1.20 6,330
Dairy Cattle & Milk Production $179,133 1.49 $267,022 4.8% 2,854 1.28 3,662Animal Production, except Cattle/Poultry/Eggs $120,161 1.43 $171,444 3.2% 6,823 1.09 7,464
Tobacco Farming $96,875 1.61 $155,536 2.6% 3,150 1.21 3,817
Vegetable & Melon Farming $89,259 1.44 $128,583 2.4% 1,010 1.50 1,510
Commercial Hunting & Trapping $52,743 1.68 $88,441 1.4% 671 1.45 970
Fruit Farming $9,554 1.44 $13,748 0.3% 126 1.50 188
Tree Nut Farming $761 1.47 $1,116 0.0% 20 1.25 24
Sugarcane & Sugar Beet Farming $0 0.0 $0 0.0% 0 0.0 0
Commercial Fishing $0 0.0 $0 0.0% 0 0.0 0
Total $3,712,339 $5,685,498 76,900 98,187
Economic Impacts from Agriculture
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 17
Primary forestry based industries $5.6 billion in economic activity directly and $9.0 billion with multiplier effects.
Primary forest based industries provided 8,914 jobs directly and 31,806 with multiplier effects.
Paper mills provided about 68.8% of the economic activity from primary forestry.
The largest employment multipliers were for paperboard mills (4.65), pulp mills (4.62), and paper mills (4.39).
For each job created,
‐Paperboard mills create an additional 3.65 jobs
‐Paper mills create an additional 3.39 jobs
‐Pulp mills create an additional 3.62 jobs Sawmills create an additional .96 jobs
in other industries through multiplier effects.
Estimated Economic Impacts from Forestry, 2011 (1,000 $)
TIO Employment (Jobs)Direct Multiplier Total Direct Multiplier Total
Paper Mills $3,876,279 1.57 $6,097,224 4,487 4.39 19,708
Paperboard Mills $788,213 1.65 $1,299,729 968 4.65 4,497Sawmills & Wood Preservation $740,628 1.57 $1,162,837 3,148 1.96 6,167
Pulp Mills $228,614 1.71 $390,639 311 4.62 1,434
Total $5,633,735 $8,950,429 8,914 31,806
68.8%
14.0%
13.1%4.1%
Percent of TIO from Forestry, 2011
Paper Mills
Paperboard Mills
Sawmills & Wood Preservation
Pulp Mills
Economic Impacts from Forestry
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 18
Estimated Economic Impacts Food and Fiber Products Manufacturing, 2011 (1,000 $)
TIO Employment (Jobs)
Direct Multiplier Total% of Total Direct Multiplier Total
Poultry Processing $2,587,801 1.63 $4,211,383 10.1% 7,031 2.52 17,717Soft Drinks & Ice Manuf $2,467,392 1.51 $2,624,350 9.6% 3,477 3.18 11,072Tobacco Product Manuf $2,099,683 1.25 $2,624,350 8.2% 877 4.13 3,618Wet Corn Milling $1,381,955 1.55 $2,140,613 5.4% 573 10.20 5,842Dog & Cat Food Manuf $1,337,351 1.45 $1,942,066 5.2% 923 5.16 4,763Animal (except Poultry) Slaughtering, Rendering, & Processing $1,323,337 1.37 $1,813,900 5.2% 4,408 1.80 7,957Snack Food Manuf $1,298,816 1.46 $1,901,696 5.1% 1,765 3.26 5,745Cookie, Cracker, & Pasta Manuf $1,196,167 1.62 $1,943,104 4.7% 2,686 2.75 7,386Fluid Milk & Butter Manuf $1,024,863 1.51 $1,547,884 4.0% 989 4.12 4,072Fruit & Vegetable Caning, Pickling, & Drying $1,011,188 1.54 $1,552,200 3.9% 1,864 2.89 5,391Fats & Oils Refining & Blending $870,277 1.37 $1,191,813 3.4% 213 8.61 1,837Frozen Food Manuf $849,256 1.66 $1,410,487 3.3% 2,477 2.49 6,170Distilleries $833,352 1.32 $1,097,477 3.3% 560 3.96 2,219Soybean & Other Oilseed Processing $760,462 1.19 $904,465 3.0% 442 3.19 1,411Bread & Bakery Product Manuf $699,608 1.79 $1,200,014 2.7% 3,866 2.02 7,793Flour Milling & Malt Manuf $523,556 1.65 $862,237 2.0% 458 5.77 2,643Nonchocolate Confectionery Manuf $496,388 1.60 $794,768 1.9% 1,282 2.47 3,165Confectionery Manuf from Purchased Chocolate $488,622 1.55 $755,984 1.9% 1,316 2.27 2,984Fiber, Yarn, & Thread Mills $461,201 1.45 $666,663 1.8% 1,514 1.77 2,675Dry, Condensed, & Evaporated Dairy Product Manuf $447,481 1.57 $701,115 1.7% 559 3.63 2,028Nonwoven Fabric Mills $409,451 1.41 $578,068 1.6% 809 2.31 1,870Men's’ & Boys’ Cut & Sew Apparel Manuf $377,053 1.69 $638,931 1.5% 2,533 1.87 4,736Breakfast Cereal Manuf $369,594 1.50 $553,581 1.4% 421 3.79 1,593
Total $25,624,547 $38,393,393 50,466 133,018
Economic Impacts from Food & Fiber Products Manufacturing
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 19
Food and fiber products manufacturing $25.6 billion in direct economic activity and $38.4 in total economic activity.
Employs 50,000 directly and over 133,000 when including multiplier effects.
Within the state, food and fiber manufacturing is very diverse, with only poultry processing holding over a 10% share of direct economic activity.
Poultry processing is followed by soft drinks, tobacco, wet corn milling, and dog and cat food manufacturing in terms of direct economic activity.
Largest employment are poultry (7,031), animal slaughter and processing (4,408), bread and bakery products (3,866), and soft drinks (3,477).
Largest employment multipliers include wet corn milling (10.2), fats and oils refining (8.6), flour milling (5.8), and dog & cat food manufacturing (5.2).
Economic Impacts from Food & Fiber Products Manuf, Contd.
10.1%
9.6%
8.2%
5.4%
5.2%5.2%
5.1%4.7%4.0%3.9%
3.4%3.3%
3.3%3.0%2.7%2.0%
20.9%
Share of Direct Economic Activity from Food & Fiber Prod. Manuf.
Poultry Processing
Soft Drinks & Ice Manuf
Tobacco Product Manuf
Wet Corn Milling
Dog & Cat Food Manuf
Animal (except Poultry) Slaughtering, Rendering, & Processing
Snack Food Manuf
Cookie, Cracker, & Pasta Manuf
Fluid Milk & Butter Manuf
Fruit & Vegetable Caning, Pickling, & Drying
Fats & Oils Refining & Blending
Frozen Food Manuf
Distilleries
Soybean & Other Oilseed Processing
Bread & Bakery Product Manuf
Flour Milling & Malt Manuf
Other
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May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 20
29%
11%
9%7%6%6%
4%4%4%4%3%2%2% 9%
Percent ot TIO from Forestry Products Manufacturing
Paperboard Container Manuf
Upholstered Household Furniture Manuf
Coated & Laminated Paper, Pkging Paper &Plastics Film ManufWood Windows & Doors & Millwork Manuf
Sanitary Paper Product Manuf
Stationery Product Manuf
Manufactured Homes (Mobile Home) Manuf
Showcase, Partition, Shelving, & Locker Manuf
Wood Container & Pallet Manuf
Mattress Manuf
Wood Kitchen Cabinet and Countertop Manuf
All Other Converted Paper Product Manuf
Institutional Furniture Manuf
Estimated Economic Impacts from Forest Products Manufacturing, 2011 (1,000 $) TIO Employment (Jobs)
Direct Multiplier Total Direct Multiplier Total
Paperboard Container Manuf $1,930,704 1.48 $2,856,741 5,054 2.38 12,023
Upholstered Household Furniture Manuf $719,448 1.52 $1,090,046 3,954 1.72 6,784Coated & Laminated Paper, Packaging Paper & Plastics Film Manuf $598,955 1.46 $875,655 1,586 2.24 3,550
Wood Windows & Doors & Millwork Manuf $460,520 1.62 $744,345 2,950 1.72 5,072
Sanitary Paper Product Manuf $399,870 1.37 $547,670 540 2.87 1,548
Stationery Product Manuf $395,067 1.55 $611,444 1,320 2.21 2,913
Manufactured Homes (Mobile Home) Manuf $302,727 1.89 $571,249 1,963 2.02 3,972
Showcase, Partition, Shelving, & Locker Manuf $295,888 1.62 $480,026 1,329 2.00 2,662
Wood Container & Pallet Manuf $254,293 1.60 $407,527 2,181 1.53 3,346
Mattress Manuf $248,122 1.52 $377,745 814 2.17 1,764
Wood Kitchen Cabinet and Countertop Manuf $181,404 1.86 $336,811 1,450 1.85 2,679
All Other Converted Paper Product Manuf $168,062 1.56 $262,926 583 2.19 1,276
Institutional Furniture Manuf $153,013 1.54 $235,726 494 2.24 1,107All Other Paper Bag & Coated & Treated Paper Manuf $134,832 1.47 $197,767 446 2.04 910
Engineered Wood Member & Truss Manuf $102,217 1.54 $157,046 537 1.78 959
All Other Miscellaneous Wood Product Manuf $93,799 1.71 $160,173 595 1.87 1,114
NonupholsteredWood Household Furniture Manuf $69,723 1.64 $114,595 528 1.66 878
Reconstituted Wood Product Manuf $62,454 1.56 $97,213 331 1.75 579Wood Television, Radio, & Sewing Machine Cabinet Manuf $47,719 1.58 $75,163 235 1.95 458
Prefabricated Wood Building Manuf $47,433 1.66 $78,911 348 1.71 596Office Furniture & Custom Architectural Woodwork & Millwork Manuf $42,959 1.74 $74,732 314 1.79 563
Blind & Shade Manuf $22,928 1.70 $39,044 165 1.70 281
Veneer & Plywood Manuf $7,525 1.43 $10,782 35 1.70 60
Total $6,739,661 $10,403,339 27,752 55,094
• 48% of direct TIO from forest products manufacturing are derived from 4 industries: a) paperboard container manufacturing, b) upholstered furniture manufacturing, c) coated and laminated paper manufacturing, and d) wood windows, doors, & millwork.
• The largest employment is in paperboard container manufacturing (5,054), followed by upholstered furniture manufacturing (3,954), wood windows & doors & millwork manuf (2,950), and coated & laminated paper, packaging paper & plastics film manuf (1,586).
Economic Impacts from Forest Prod. Manufacturing
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
StateProportion of Cropland in
hayAlabama 42%Arkansas 18%Georgia 18%Kentucky 45%Mississippi 15%Missouri 29%North Carolina 16%South Carolina 22%Tennessee 40%Virginia 49%
• 990,000 head of beef cows plus 50,000 head of dairy consumed hay produced on 1.8 million acres.
• Hay production 3.5 million tons.
• Average yield of slightly above 2 tons/acre.
• Avg, annual hay prices less than $60/ton between 1990 and 2005. However, since 2005, hay price greater than $70/ton.
• At 2.5 tons/acre, the breakeven cost of hay production according to TN Extension budgets is $120/ton for cool season grasses. If a clover stand is used in place of nitrogen, the breakeven price is $102/ton assuming the same 2.5 ton/acre yield.
Tennessee Crop Production: Hay
Page 21
Hay is Produced Across the State
TNNC
MOVA
AR
0
1
1
2
2
3
1909
1912
1915
1918
1921
1924
1927
1930
1933
1936
1939
1942
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
Million Acres
Tennessee
Tennessee
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Tons/Acre
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
$/to
n
Hay Yields (Excludes Alfalfa) (2011)(tons/acre)
None or Data Not Disclosed
1.0 ‐ 1.7
1.8 ‐ 2.2
2.3 ‐ 2.6
2.7 ‐ 3.2
3.3 ‐ 4.5
Hay Yield, 1990‐2012, Tennessee Hay Price, 1990‐2012, Tennessee
Hay Acres, 1990‐2012, Tennessee
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 22
• About 90% of the soybeans required for production processes in the state were imported.
• On the 1.23 million acres, 46.7 million bushels were produced with sales of nearly $682.4 million in 2012.
• Late 1970’s and early 80’s, soybean production was around 70 million bushels with over 2.6 million acres planted. In 2012, AR, KY, MS, MO, and NC planted more soybean acreage than TN.
• 2012 yield per acre 38 bushels. Average yield in 2011 was 32 bushels/acre. Highest recorded occurred in 2009 at 45 bushels per acre.
Tennessee Crop Production: Oilseeds
TNNCAR
Soybean Yields (2011)(bushels/acre)
None or Data Not Disclosed
19.0 ‐ 20.0
20.1 ‐ 30.0
30.1 ‐ 40.0
40.1 ‐ 55.4
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1924
1927
1930
1933
1936
1939
1942
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
Thousand Harvested
Acres
Tennessee
Tennessee
Harvested Acreage in soy‐beans, 1924‐2012, Tennessee
Location of Soybean Production, 2011
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 23
Location of Corn Production, 2011
Source: NASS Crop Layer
• Of the 2012 TN 960,000 acres planted, 81.6 million bushels were produced with sales near $600 million.
• Over 90% of the grains required for production processes in the state are imported.
• Grains grown in TN in order of acreage include corn, wheat, sorghum, oats, and barley.
• Corn production peaked with nearly 4 million acres planted to corn in early part of last century.
• Average corn yield per planted acre was 85 bushels, the lowest level since 1993 due to drought conditions. Average yield in 2011 was 131 bushels per acre. Highest recorded state average yield occurred in 2009 at 143 bushels per acre.
• Of the states that border TN only MO and KY plant more corn than TN.
Tennessee Crop Production: Corn
TNNCAR
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
1866
1870
1874
1878
1882
1886
1890
1894
1898
1902
1906
1910
1914
1918
1922
1926
1930
1934
1938
1942
1946
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
Thou
sand
Harvested
Acres
Tennessee
Harvested Acreage in Corn, 1866‐2012, Tennessee
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Tennessee Corn Yield, 1990‐2012
Corn Yields (2011)(bushels/acre)
None or Data Not Disclosed
78.3 ‐ 80.0
80.1 ‐ 120.0
120.1 ‐ 160.0
160.1 ‐ 234.2
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 24
Tennessee Crop Production: Cotton
Location of Cotton Production, 2011
Source: NASS
TNNCAR
Cotton Yields (2011)(bales/acre)
None or Data Not Disclosed
690 ‐ 700
701 ‐ 1,000
1,001 ‐ 1,300
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1866
1870
1874
1878
1882
1886
1890
1894
1898
1902
1906
1910
1914
1918
1922
1926
1930
1934
1938
1942
1946
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
Thou
sand
Harvested
Acres
Tennessee
Tennessee
Harvested Acreage in Co on, 1866‐2012, Tennessee
0100200300400500600700800900
1000
poun
ds/a
cre
Tennessee Co on Yield, 1990‐2012
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
ALABAMA
ARKANSAS
GEORGIA
MISSISSIPPI
MISSOURI
NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTH CAROLINA
TENNESSEE
VIRGINIA
Thousands bales
Co on Produc on, 2012, Ten‐nessee
• TN 2011 cotton receipts $401.1 million.
• Over 46% of the cotton required for production processes in the state is imported.
• Cotton acreage‐peaked in the 1930’s with close to 1.2 million acres harvested; 2006 cotton acreage climbed from 300,000 in the 90’s to 695,000; 2010‐2012 time period cotton acreage averaged 417,000 acres; 2012 harvested acres 375,000.
• Of the states that border TN, GA, AR, MS, NC, and AL plant more cotton than TN.
• Average cotton yield in TN per planted acre was 934 pounds/acre in 2012. During the 2000‐2012 time period, cotton production ranged from a low of 565 pounds/acre in 2007 to a high of 945 in 2006.
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 25
Tennessee Crop Production: Nursery & Greenhouse
• Several counties where the share of specialty crops such as nursery, greenhouse, vegetables, and tree nuts exceed 20%.
• 2007 TN greenhouse area was estimated at 4.6 million sq. feet , an increase of 35% over a ten year period. During that same time frame, AL, AR, GA, NC, and SC showed decreases.
• In 2007, Tennessee had the most open nursery acreage of all the states (33,485 acres); 5% increase above the 1997 level but the lowest increase in acreage among the comparison states.
• ERS forecasts specialty crop farm businesses (fruits, vegetables, and nursery/greenhouse) to experience a decline in average net farm income of more than 15 percent in 2013.
• While crop receipts are forecasted to remain the same, expenses are projected to increase. Labor expenses, 1/3 of all cash expenses, are forecast to increase 11% due to increasing wages and output.
Open Area (Acres) Under Protec on (Sq Feet) State 1997 2002 2007 1997 2002 2007Alabama 5,748 7,360 6,758 6,460,217 8,931,841 6,151,997Arkansas 385 886 1,152 681,479 428,922 316,424Georgia 4,972 8,438 7,991 4,210,217 4,928,904 3,633,707Kentucky 4,564 5,422 3,951 443,326 759,618 1,096,239Mississippi 657 1,067 1,525 431,599 406,933 760,614Missouri 3,419 4,625 4,237 253,326 466,791 361,882North Carolina 16,459 18,423 23,333 5,691,004 5,220,882 4,824,577South Carolina 6,612 (D) 7,341 3,688,569 3,546,914 1,490,449Tennessee 31,900 38,953 33,485 3,390,961 4,390,778 4,599,100Virginia 10,445 11,062 11,955 2,093,861 2,986,186 5,711,566
Area in Nurseries, Open and Protected, 1997, 2002, and 2007, by State
Nursery Sales, 2007
State Value Alabama 99,704,294Arkansas (D) Georgia 125,233,223Kentucky 23,635,510Mississippi 16,972,224Missouri 25,335,095North Carolina 251,810,276South Carolina 91,395,683Tennessee 177,221,588Virginia 96,564,870
Value of Nursery, Greenhouse, Floriculture, and Sod Sold as a Percent of Total Market Value of
Agricultural Products Sold: 2007
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 26
Beef Sales 1990-2012, Selected StatesCattle prices by State for Various Years
State 2011Average(22 years)
Average(5 Years)
$/lbAlabama 0.91 0.71 0.79 Arkansas 0.91 0.71 0.84Georgia 0.98 0.66 0.79 Kentucky 1.09 0.77 0.93 Mississippi 0.98 0.69 0.79 Missouri 1.24 0.85 1.00 North Carolina 0.95 0.69 0.76 South Carolina 0.90 0.68 0.80 Tennessee 0.97 0.71 0.83 Virginia 0.96 0.71 0.84
Tennessee Livestock Production: Beef
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Head
ALABAMA ARKANSAS GEORGIA KENTUCKY
MISSISSIPPI MISSOURI NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA
TENNESSEE VIRGINIA
Beef Cattle (2011)(head)
None or Data Not Disclosed
400 ‐ 5,000
5,001 ‐ 15,000
15,001 ‐ 30,000
30,001 ‐ 58,000
Tennessee Beef, by County, 2007
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!Memphis
Jackson
Nashville
Knoxville
Manchester
Union City
Chattanooga
Johnson City
Giles
Shelby
Dyer
Scott
Knox
WaynePolk
Sevier
HenryObion
Fayette
Maury
CarrollGibson
Greene
Blount
Hardin
Wilson
Monroe
Lincoln
Cocke
Perry
Sumner
Hickman
MarionFranklin
Tipton
Weakley
Rhea
Coffee
Morgan
Lawrence
Stewart
McNairy
Madison
Dickson
White
HamiltonHardeman
Roane
Clay
Fentress
Bedford
Warren
Carter
Hawkins
Davidson
Haywood
Cumberland
Rutherford
Sullivan
Smith
OvertonCampbell
Bledsoe
Williamson
Putnam
McMinnLewis
Grundy
Robertson
Humphreys
Claiborne
Henderson
DeKalb
Macon
Lauderdale
Bradley
Montgomery
JacksonUnion
Chester
JeffersonBenton
Decatur
Lake
Marshall
Johnson
Anderson
Meigs
Grainger
LoudonCannon
Unicoi
Crockett
CheathamWashington
Pickett Hancock
Houston
Van Buren
Sequatchie
Hamblen
Moore
Trousdale
12
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10
11
1213
14
15
16
17
1819
Federally Inspected Slaughter Facili es
• 2011 direct output from cattle ranching and farming $586 million.
• 2011 TN farmers sold 325,000 head.
• 2011 price received by producers (receipts/production) was $0.97/pound.
• Over past 5 years, the average price received $0.83/pound; over last 22 years the average price $0.71/pound (nominal dollars). Other states received higher prices in part because they finished a larger percentage of their cattle.
• For a steer purchased at $516 (450 pounds) and feed on fescue, the breakeven price is $1.10/pound assuming no return for land or management (2007$).
• 19 federally inspected slaughter facilities scattered across the state.
• About 48.3% of the dollar value of input needs for animal slaughtering, rendering, & processing are met from out of state.
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May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 27
Tennessee Livestock Production: Dairy
Value of production less total costs, 2011 = $20.92/cwt—$34.78/cwt= ‐$13.96/cwt
StateMilk Cows (1,000 hd.)
Milk/Cow (lbs)
Milk Production (mil. Lbs.)
Fluid Grade AvgReturns per Cwt
Cash Receipts ($1,000)
$331,934GA 79 17,671 1,396 $18.40 $254,840VA 95 18,095 1,719 $19.40 $236,052KY 78 14,769 1,152 $17.90 $204,239NC 44 19,636 864 $19.30 $165,401TN 52 16,346 850 $17.90 $151,434SC 16 17,875 286 $19.90 $56,317MS 17 13,118 223 $18.40 $40,664AL 11 14,455 159 $19.80 $30,810AR 12 12,750 153 $17.10 $25,821
Year Licensed Dairy Herds2006 6502007 5902008 5502009 5302010 490
2011 450
0
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
PoundsTN Total Milk Production 1990‐2012
02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
PoundsTN Milk Production Per Cow 1990‐2012
26%
20%18%
14%
6%
4%3%
2%2%
2%1% 1%
1%0%
0% 0% 0%
Purchased feedCapital recovery of machinery and equipmentOpportunity cost of unpaid laborHomegrown harvested feedHired laborFuel, lube, and electricityRepairsVeterinary and medicineCustom servicesGeneral farm overheadTaxes and insuranceGrazed feedMarketingBedding and litterOpportunity cost of land (rental rate)Interest on operating capitalOther operating costs
Tennessee Dairy Operating Cost Shares, 2011
TN milk production has fallen over time.
Milk production per cow has risen over time, topping 16,000 pounds per year per cow by 2012.
The current number of licensed dairy farms is between 400 and 450 and has declined steadily over time.
Dairy cattle inventory is highest in northeast Tennessee and the Tennessee Valley, with some inventory also in middle Tennessee.
TN is ranked 6th regionally in terms of value of production.
Purchased feed, capital recovery, opportunity cost of unpaid labor, homegrown feed, and hired labor constitute the largest cost shares.
In 2011, the total costs were estimated to be greater than value of production at ‐$13/96/cwt.
For fluid milk and butter manuf., the state imports from out of state about 56.7% of the value of its input needs, 66.1% for cheese, 57.1% for dried and condensed milk, and 51.5% for ice cream and frozen desserts.
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 28
Tennessee Livestock Production: Pork
Hog, Barrow, and Gilt Prices $/cwt, 2010, Average 2006‐2010, by State
State 2010 5 year averageAlabama $53.10 $45.08
Arkansas $50.30 $44.66 Georgia $55.60 $49.52
Kentucky $54.80 $46.12 Mississippi $51.00 $44.26 Missouri $49.10 $42.18 North Carolina $54.80 $48.06 South Carolina $55.20 $48.34
Tennessee $54.00 $45.80
Virginia $53.00 $46.60
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Thousands
ALABAMA ARKANSAS GEORGIA KENTUCKY MISSISSIPPI
MISSOURI NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA TENNESSEE VIRGINIA
Hogs Sold, by Head and Selected State, 1988‐2011
Hogs (2007)(head)
Data Not Disclosed
None
6 ‐ 30,000
30,001 ‐ 60,000
60,001 ‐ 200,000
Tennessee Hog Production, 2007
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
($/cwt
)/($/bu
)
Year
Hog to Corn Price Ratio, Tennessee, 1970‐2011
December Hog Inventory, Tennessee, 1990‐2011
1990 TN producers sold nearly 1.5 million head of hogs, barrows, and gilts. By 2011 this decreased to 390,000 head.
December inventory declined from a high of 670,000 head in 1991 to the current level of 150,000 head.
2011 price received by producers (receipts/ production) $54.00/cwt. Over the past 5 years, average price received $45.80/cwt (nominal dollars). Other states had similar price levels. Georgia leads the region with a 5 year average of nearly $50/cwt and MO has the lowest price in the study region.
2011 TN cash receipts for hog and pig production $510 million.
Iowa Extension is forecasting a $20 loss per hog this year as a result of feed costs.
2011 TN hog to corn price ratio for 2011 $54/cwt÷ $6.56/bushel = 8.23.
2007 140,000 head; 36,000 in Weakly County and over 30,000 in Henry County. Lawrence, Franklin, Macon, and Gibson Counties had between 3 and 8 thousand head.
TN farms with hogs has declined. In 1980, 33,000 farms that sold hogs. In 2007 there were 1,500. Over the past decade the number of farms fluctuated between 1,700 and 1,100.
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 29
Tennessee Livestock Production: Poultry
Selected Poultry Products by State, 2002 & 2007Layers Pullets Broilers
State 2002 2007 2002 2007 2002 2007Number (1,000)
Alabama 9,656 9,624 4,950 5,436 158,297 178,339Arkansas 13,190 13,978 6,045 8,075 181,555 202,398Georgia 20,022 19,273 7,385 7,675 204,678 235,400Kentucky 4,343 4,585 1,583 1,797 44,714 49,777Mississippi 5,386 6,237 2,479 3,591 134,738 150,597Missouri 6,978 7,249 2,350 2,695 33,511 46,654North Carolina 10,150 12,748 5,705 7,130 149,440 149,922South Carolina 5,584 4,714 1,333 1,710 32,372 45,792Tennessee 1,161 1,713 778 974 25,608 40,040Virginia 3,222 3,208 1,277 1,188 45,430 43,745
Turkey Production, Measured in Pounds, 2011, Average 2007‐2011, by State
State 2011 5 year average
1,000 lbsArkansas 603,900 581,380Missouri 568,750 611,840North Carolina 1,132,800 1,109,390South Carolina 448,500 433,848Virginia 460,250 464,980
In 2007, GA leading state in numbers of layers and broilers and was second to AR for pullets. TN last for the numbers of layers, pullets, and broilers.
For 2011, the states having the largest turkey production NC, AR, MO, VA, and SC. For the five year period 2007 to 2011, the states with the largest average turkey production NC, MO, AR, VA and SC.
The average federally inspected slaughtering of young chickens for Tennessee between 2001 and 2012 was 262.7 million head. Georgia was the largest (1,250.6) head followed by AR (1,085.9) and AL (1,047.5). Tennessee was ranked last for the surrounding states evaluated.
2011 TN cash receipts for broilers, eggs, and farm chickens $461.1 million, $59.7 million, and $2.1 million, respectively.
For poultry processing, nearly 60% of the value of inputs purchased were from out of state sources.
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Million He
ad
ALABAMA ARKANSAS GEORGIA KENTUCKY MISSISSIPPI
MISSOURI NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA TENNESSEE VIRGINIA
Federally Inspected Young Chickens Slaughtered, Selected States,
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 30
Tennessee Livestock Production: Sheep
Sheep (Excl Lambs) Prices Received ($/cwt), 2010, Average 2006‐2010, by State State 2010 5 year average Kentucky $55.30 $41.44 Missouri $52.40 $37.66 North Carolina $50.00 $40.60 Tennessee $50.00 $38.60 Virginia $51.30 $39.56
Wool Produc on (Pounds), 2012, Average 2008‐2012, by State
State 2012 5 year average Kentucky 95,000 83,000 Missouri 270,000 335,000 North Carolina 35,000 37,400 Tennessee 100,000 102,000 Virginia 200,000 188,000
Sheep & Lambs (2007)(head)
Data Not Disclosed
None
16 ‐ 750
751 ‐ 1,500
1,501 ‐ 3,000
3,001 ‐ 5,000
Tennessee Sheep/Lambs Production, 2007
GilesShelby
DyerKnox
Scott
Wayne
Polk
Sevier
Henry
Fayette
Maury
Obion
Carroll
Hardin
Gibson
Blount
GreeneWilson
Monroe
Lincoln
Cocke
Perry
Sumner
Marion
Hickman
Franklin
TiptonRhea
Weakley
Morgan
Coffee
LawrenceMcNairy
Stewart
Madison
HamiltonHardeman
Dickson
White
Clay
Roane
Warren
Fentress
Bedford
Carter
Hawkins
Davidson
Haywood
CumberlandRutherford
Sullivan
SmithOverton
Campbell
Williamson
Putnam
McMinnLewis
Grundy
Humphreys
Robertson Claiborne
Henderson
DeKalb
Macon
Lauderdale
Bradley
Montgomery
JacksonUnion
JeffersonBenton
BledsoeDecatur
Lake
MarshallChester
Johnson
Meigs
Anderson
Grainger
LoudonCannon
Unicoi
Crockett
Cheatham Washington
Pickett Hancock
Houston
Van Buren
Sequatchie
Hamblen
Moore
Trousdale
Wool Production (2007)(Pounds)
Data Not DisclosedNone1 ‐ 500501 ‐ 1,000
1,001 ‐ 1,5001,501 ‐ 2,000> 2,000
Pounds of Wool Produced on Sheep/Lamb Farms in Tennessee by County, 2007
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000
1920
1923
1926
1929
1932
1935
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1950
1953
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1962
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1968
1971
1974
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2004
2007
2010
2013
Thou
sand
s
ALABAMA ARKANSAS GEORGIA KENTUCKY MISSISSIPPI
MISSOURI NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA TENNESSEE VIRGINIA
Sheep & Lamb Inventory, Head and Selected States, 1920‐2011 From 1980 to 2007, number of farms with sheep in the state increased 188.9 percent.
2010 TN sheep and lamb production ranked 30th in the U.S. and ranked second in the nation in percentage growth.
Since 1984 TN sheep prices (excludes lambs) increased an average of 5.4 percent per year.
2007 sheep and lamb numbers estimated at 29,751 in TN with Sullivan County having the largest number (1,904) followed by Greene (1,523), Washington (1,431), Wilson (1,137), and Giles (983) Counties.
2007 TN pound s wool produced 100,029. Largest wool producing counties Sullivan (10,454 pounds), followed by Greene (7,194 pounds), Jefferson (4,604 pounds), Lincoln (3,951 pounds), and Wilson (3,734 pounds)
2011 TN cash receipts for sheep and lamb production for 2010 totaled close to $2.5 million.
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
State Populations for 2011, 30‐Year Change in Population, and Proportion in Rural Counties
State Population 30 Year ChangeProportion in Rural Counties
Alabama 4,802,740 123.3% 28.4%Arkansas 2,937,979 128.5% 39.4%Georgia 9,815,210 179.7% 18.8%Kentucky 4,369,356 119.4% 41.7%Missouri 6,010,688 122.2% 26.9%Mississippi 2,978,512 118.2% 54.8%North Carolina 9,656,401 164.2% 29.4%
South Carolina 4,679,230 149.9% 23.3%Tennessee 6,403,353 139.5% 26.4%Virginia 8,096,604 151.4% 13.7%
Page 31
Demographics: Population
• Tennessee 4th most populous state with 6.4 million residents in 2011.
• Between 1980 and 2011, TN population grew by 139.5%, 5th fastest growing state. GA fastest (179.7%) while MS slowest (118.2%) increase in population.
• Tennessee 4th lowest percentage of its population living in rural counties with a rural population of 26.4%. MS greatest (54.8%), VA smallest (13.7%).
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
Per Capita Income , 2011 (State Sorted)State Rural Urban State U‐RVA $31,883 $48,371 $46,107 $16,488MO $30,873 $40,574 $37,968 $9,701TN $29,376 $39,145 $36,567 $9,769NC $30,877 $38,173 $36,028 $7,296GA $27,915 $37,844 $35,979 $9,929AL $30,473 $36,627 $34,879 $6,154KY $28,767 $37,718 $33,988 $8,951AR $30,002 $36,167 $33,739 $6,165SC $30,304 $34,323 $33,388 $4,019MS $29,550 $34,965 $32,000 $5,415
Page 32
Demographics: Per Capita Income
• 2011 TN 3rd highest state‐level per capita income of region ($36,568).
• Because of a number of northern counties in VA lie within the Washington, DC metropolitan area, Virginia’s state‐level per capita income is $9,540 above MO, the state with the next highest income among the ten.
• VA is the least rural state in the study.
• Excluding VA, the 2011 state‐level per capita income of the remaining nine states fall within a $5,968 range.
• At $29,376, TN 2011 per capita income for rural counties is 3rd from the smallest.
• Gap between 2011 per capita income in rural and urban counties in TN $9,769.
• 2011 TN rural per capita income is 75 percent of the urban per capita income.
• While the range of the 2011 state‐level urban per capita income among the ten states is $14,048, the range for rural counties is much smaller at $3,968.
Per Capita Income , 2011 (Rural Sorted)State Rural Urban State U‐RVA $31,883 $48,371 $46,107 $16,488NC $30,877 $38,173 $36,028 $7,296MO $30,873 $40,574 $37,968 $9,701AL $30,473 $36,627 $34,879 $6,154SC $30,304 $34,323 $33,388 $4,019AR $30,002 $36,167 $33,739 $6,165MS $29,550 $34,965 $32,000 $5,415TN $29,376 $39,145 $36,567 $9,769KY $28,767 $37,718 $33,988 $8,951GA $27,915 $37,844 $35,979 $9,929
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
• Tennessee 4th lowest level of poverty in region (21.3%).
• Though Tennessee’s per capita income for rural counties was 3rd from lowest among the ten states, that low level of income was not fully reflected in the state’s rural poverty rate.
• Range of poverty rates among the states was 17.5%‐25.9%.
• Tennessee’s rate was close in range with AR and AL.
• Tennessee 3rd lowest level of food insecure households for the 2009‐2011 period and appears to be reflective of the relatively low rural poverty rate.
Poverty Rate, 2011State Rural Urban StateAL 21.8% 18.1% 19.1%AR 21.9% 17.5% 19.3%GA 24.9% 18.0% 19.2%KY 23.4% 16.0% 19.1%MO 19.4% 14.5% 15.8%MS 25.9% 19.1% 22.8%NC 20.3% 16.7% 17.8%SC 22.5% 17.7% 18.8%TN 23.3% 17.3% 18.4%VA 17.5% 10.7% 11.6%
Page 33
Demographics: Poverty and Food Insecurity
Food Insecure Households, 2009‐2011 AverageState Insecure Ins+VLAL 18.2% 25.3%AR 19.2% 26.8%GA 17.4% 23.8%KY 16.4% 23.0%MO 16.0% 22.7%MS 19.2% 26.3%NC 17.1% 22.9%SC 14.8% 19.2%TN 15.2% 21.6%VA 9.1% 12.3%
Information Flyer Strategic Planning for AgricultureAgri‐Industy Modeling & Analysis Group|AIM‐AG
May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
Not Graduated from HS, 2007‐2011 AverageState Rural Urban
AL 22.9% 16.1%AR 20.3% 15.3%GA 23.0% 14.3%KY 24.7% 13.6%MO 17.9% 11.4%MS 23.1% 15.4%NC 20.2% 14.0%SC 20.5% 15.1%TN 22.3% 14.7%VA 22.5% 11.8%
• In every state except MO, over 1/5 of adults 25 and over lacked a high school education. Tennessee was in the middle of the pack at 5th from the lowest percentage of adults who are without a high school education.
• Because the poll of high school graduates in any year is small relative to the pool of adults 25 and over it will take a sustained effort in rural education to bring Tennessee’s percentage of adults not graduating from high school down to the level of Missouri.
• Tennessee ranked lowest among the ten states in the percentage of residents of rural counties who had graduated from college.
• In contrast, Tennessee ranks 5thhighest in the percentage of urban residents with a college degree. That would suggest that job opportunities for Tennessee’s college graduates are limited, relative to the other nine states.
Page 34
Demographics: Education Level
College Graduates, 2007‐2011 AverageState Rural Urban
AL 15.4% 24.7%AR 13.8% 23.6%GA 14.6% 30.6%
KY 13.7% 25.8%MO 15.4% 29.1%MS 16.2% 24.0%NC 17.4% 30.6%SC 18.7% 25.9%TN 13.4% 26.7%VA 16.2% 37.5%
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May 2013Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TNPage 35
Average Age of Farmers, 2007 CensusState Age in YearsARKANSAS 54.3
KENTUCKY 54.3MISSOURI 55.0
N. CAROLINA 55.1
ALABAMA 55.4
TENNESSEE 55.4
GEORGIA 55.6
VIRGINIA 55.7
MISSISSIPPI 56.2
S. CAROLINA 56.2
Percent of Farmers with Farming As Principal Occupation, 2007 CensusState PercentN. CAROLINA 43.5%
ARKANSAS 42.0%
GEORGIA 40.3%
VIRGINIA 40.0%
MISSOURI 38.7%
ALABAMA 38.0%
KENTUCKY 37.6%
MISSISSIPPI 36.5%
TENNESSEE 36.4%
S. CAROLINA 36.2%
Demographics: Farmer Demographics
43.5% 42.0% 40.3% 40.0% 38.7% 38.0% 37.6% 36.5% 36.4%36.2%
0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%
% Principal Occup. Farming
Principal Occupation Farming
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%
Sales Per Farm Category
Tennessee Farm Sales Categories
Share of Farms
Share of Sales
54.3 54.3
55 55.155.4 55.4 55.6 55.7
56.2 56.2
5353.554
54.555
55.556
56.5
Years Average Age of Farmers
• The average age of TN farmers according to the 2007 Census was 55.4 years, in the mid‐range for the region. SC oldest (56.2 years), and AR and KY youngest (54.3 years).
• Tennessee had the next to lowest percent of farmers indicating farming as their principal occupation at 36.4%. Only SC was lower and NC was highest.
• The low percentage of TN farmers indicating farming as their principal occupation is likely related to TN farm size‐‐most farms < $20,000 in sales. As seen green bar in the graph, 30% of farm sales were held by farms with $500,000 or more.