Climate Change and Sustainability
Facing Physical Reality 101
Jim WhiteUniversity of Colorado
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research
Times have changed
• We live in truly historic times• We have sought dominion over the
earth for as long as we have been a species
• In the last 30 years, we have demonstrably achieved that goal
Times have changed
• While all previous generations saw the earth as limitless in some way, all future generations will need to consider planetary limits
• Sustainability is our goal• To achieve that goal, we must
understand how our planet functions
If the goal is sustainability…
Is it surprising that humans are changing the planet?
• Simply put…we’re impressive, the biggest cause of change on the planet.
• We have altered the Earth’s energy balance and changed climate
• We cause 10 times more erosion than all natural processes• We make more fertilizer than all bacteria in the world• We make more sulfate than all ocean phytoplankton• Our current energy needs equal all harvestable wind
energy in the atmosphere
How is this possible?… the power of the exponential!
Population
You are here
Use per capita: the big multiplier
China: 5 times below EuropeIndia: 8 times below EuropeUS: 2 times more than Europe
The Nasty Dilemma: we want others to live well, but if they do, the energy and resource needs will be staggering
Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Top Emitters
Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden-CDIAC 2010
1990 95 2001 05 200997 99 03930
400
800
1200
1600
2000Ca
rbon
Em
issio
ns p
er y
ear
(C to
ns x
1,0
00,0
00)
China
USA
JapanRussian Fed. India
07
2009
Time (y)
The challenge of global domination
• Unintended consequences– Fertilize crops in Iowa: Mississippi Delta Dead
Zone– Global commerce: species spread and ecosystem
destruction– Fossil fuel energy: climate change– Climate change: birds and caterpillars
• Costs of management: replace ecosystem services
• Costs of change: mismatch of resource availability and need/use
The challenge of global domination
• Resource scarcity– Food– Fresh water– Minerals: e.g. Lithium– Energy
• Shrinking adaptation time: coal example
Timing and tipping points• Not classical… not
always recognized and not always abrupt, but a threshold, a point of no return is crossed resulting in large, inevitable change.
• The“canoe on the Niagara River” type events: strong positive feedbacks
Is it economics, or is it ethics, morals and religion
?Economic arguments will win if grow is what we do.
The exponential: a hypothetical example
Coal Lifetime: 500 yrs, no growth in use
Coal Lifetime: 500 yrs, growth in use
Note the scale change!
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
reservoir with 1% growth in use
reservoir with 3% growth in use
Kyoto was passed in 1997…Since then, CO2 levels are >20% higher… in other words, about 20% of all FF’s ever burned were burned since 1997…
One generation, the post WWII generation, will burn nearly all of the oil and natural gas economically available
Sobering thoughts…
The loose railroad ties
• The targets are still fuzzy, so the solutions must be adaptable: 350.org
• Time scale mismatch: planetary versus political timescales
• The Earth also contributes (feedbacks): polar carbon, melting ice sheets, shrinking sea ice…
• Hysteresis (aka: can you really go home again?): geoengineering
• A dynamic and changing planet: sea level, rainfall, etc.
Beyond climate change
• Climate change is training wheels for sustainability
• We have larger problems to face and solve– Food– Water– Mineral resources– Population– International cooperation
• Every problem faced is a step towards sustainability
Living with our (inevitable) footprint
• CH4 is in part a food greenhouse gas. It is produced by rice cultivation and domestic animals
• N2O is a food gas• Birds and the bees: Rachel Carson (we
still check very few new chemicals for impacts) and pollinators (what’s killing the bees?)
Final comments:
Responsibility
Ethics and economics
My 3 simple rules of sustainability:
1. Everything must cycle2. Population must be
controlled (equality of the sexes), and vary inversely with resource use per capita
3. Equity must be considered and acted upon