www.mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu
Scientific support to
Agriculture, Athens
23.04.2014
1
Climate Change and Agriculture: adaptation and mitigation
Frank Dentener, Ph.D.
2
IPCC AR5 WG1/WG2 reports
IPCC 5th Assessment Report, WG2: “Based on many studies covering a wide range of regions and crops, negative impacts of climate change on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts (high confidence)” Climate Change: risk of food insecurity ….particularly poorer populations For Europe climate change impacts: •Flooding, coastal zones •Extreme heat events •Increased water restriction:
Less water from rivers and groundwater, increased water demand, more evaporation especially in Southern Europe=>impact on agriculture
RCP2.6 RCP8.5
Integrated Multi-sectoral Impact Analysis: JRC PESETA II Project
• Assessing climate impacts in Europe (JRC cluster)
• Ten impact areas
• Integrated modelling at JRC: 40 staff, 4 units, 2 institutes
• Large set of biophysical impact and economic damage evaluations
• Contribution to EU’s Adaptation Package
• Agricultural benefits in N. Europe and dis-benefits in S. Europe – when not considering adaptation options
Welfare impacts for EU regions in Reference and 2°C simulations (%GDP): 2090s versus 2000s
North Central South
4
Main agricultural areas across Europe Source: JRC MARS DB, grid cells with at least 30 % of arable land
Source: Report on agriculture - 2011, DG AGRI
Current EU Agriculture - some key figures
EU production – global market
5
Crop monitoring/forecasting in Europe
MCYFS - MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System
6
Linking Climate – Water availability – Crop Growth – Agricultural Production
Climate Change Agriculture
Climate Forcing: IPCC scenarios, downscaling, bias correction
Water cycle: hydrological modelling, water availability for
agriculture
Agro-economy: price of water, commodities, farm income
Crop growth simulations: impacts on yield, production, adaptation
measures
Climate change scenarios: impact on agriculture
• IPCC emission scenario A1B, two “extreme realizations”:
HadleyCM3 (warm) ECHAM5 (cold)
• 2000 (baseline), 2020-2030 time horizons. By 2030: ΔT=0.6
• Downscaled using selected RCM, bias-corrected
• Data used in set of crop growth models at JRC Data covering EU27
Member States using a 25 x 25 km grid
• Selected crops: grain, maize, wheat, sunflower, rapeseed, rice
• Production levels: potential, water-limited (… others)
• No adaptation versus autonomous adaptation by farmers: choice of
genotypes, agro-management such as planting date in response to
changing conditions
7
Weather scenarios – Precipitation
8
• Especially in S. Europe, the final impact patterns are largely driven by precipitation change
• Need to evaluate a range of changes and options
Precipitation Change
9
• Development mostly determined by temperature and day length • Choice of genetic variety and sowing date are adaptation options
Foundation- 6 months Needs cool period for “hardening”
Construction- 2 months Determines grain number
Production – 2 months
Sow
ing
Ear
For
mat
ion
Flow
erin
g
Grain filling
Rip
enin
g
Frost Risk Drought/heat Risk FR
Growth cycle: winter wheat
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• Development mostly determined by temperature and day length • Choice of genetic variety and sowing date are adaptation options
Sow
ing
Ear
For
mat
ion
Flow
erin
g
Grain filling
Rip
enin
g
Frost Risk Drought/heat Risk FR
Sowing date: unchanged Variety: normal ΔT=1°C
Sowing date: + 10 days Variety: normal ΔT=1°C
Sowing date: + 10 days Variety: slow ΔT=1°C
Growth cycle
Wheat – water limited, no adaptation
Wheat – best adaptation (%)
• Delaying sowing date, slower growing variety can in most regions compensate for moderate climate change
Analysis of different irrigation strategies for growing maize in Europe
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Three different irrigation strategies to assess the impact on grain maize yield:
Full irrigation – applied water amount completely meets climatic water deficit
Deficit irrigation – apply water during the most sensitive crop development stages (flowering, grainfilling)
Supplemental (conventional) irrigation – reproduces farmers irrigation behaviour; apply irrigation after longer period without rainfall, constant irrigation water amount applied after long period without rainfall (typically 60 mm)
Climate Change: impact of different irrigation strategies
Full Deficit Conventional
Number of irrigation events
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Irrigation water requirement Relative difference in maize productivity
Analysis of different irrigation strategies for growing maize in Europe
Impact of different irrigation strategies
FULL IRRIGATION
DEFICIT IRRIGATION
Less water Equal yield
Impact of Agriculture on Climate Change
• Direct GHG emissions from agriculture (including livestock) represent ca. 10% of total EU27 emissions
• Life Cycle Assessment shows that indirect emissions from energy, land use change, and industry roughly double this number.
• LCA allows attribution of climate impact to consumer products, and production costs
• Challenge of emission mitigation and increasing resource efficiency along with adaptation.
• The economic model CAPRI allows to estimate the (residual) impact of CC on agriculture on farm income, trade etc.
19129%
19329%
16525%
548%21
3%122%
244%
BeefCow MilkPorkSheep and Goat MeatSheep and Goat MilkPoultry MeatEggs
Total GHG fluxes EU27: 661 Mt CO2-eq
Livestock GHG emissions (CAPRI Model) Source: Weiss and Leip (2012)
Key GHG data (1) 1990 2008 2009 2010 2011 (
2) 2012
1990–
2011
2010–
2011 (2)
Total GHG emissions (Mt CO2-eq.) 5 583.1 4 974.4 4 609.9 4 720.9 4 601.6 n.a. -17.6% -2.5%
GHG from international bunkers (3) (Mt CO2-eq.) 183.1 320.6 293.2 284.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
GHG per capita (t CO2-eq. / capita) 11.8 10.0 9.2 9.4 9.2 n.a. -22.6% -2.8%
GHG per GDP (constant prices) (4) (g CO2-eq. / euro) 626 420 407 409 392 n.a. -37.3% -4.0%
EU ETS allocated allowances (free + auctioning) 2 008.7 2 036.9 2 073.0 2 078.6 n.a. 0.3%
EU ETS verified emissions - all installations (5) (Mt CO2-eq.) 2 100.2 1 860.9 1 919.9 1 884.6 n.a. -1.8%
EU ETS verified emissions - constant scope (6) (Mt CO2-eq.) 1 984.4 1 772.4 1 818.7 1 759.5 n.a. -3.3%
Share of EU ETS verified emissions (all install.) in total GHG (%) 42.2 % 40.4 % 40.7 % 41.0 % n.a. 0.7%
ETS verified emissions compared to annual allowances (7) (%) 104.6% 91.4% 92.6% 90.7% n.a. -2.1%
Share of GHG emissions (excluding international bunkers) by main source and by gas in 2010 (1) (
8)
Assessment of short-term GHG trend (2009–2010)
Key data and trends on renewable energy 2008 2009 20102020
target
Share of renewable energy in final consumption 10.5% 11.7% 12.5% 20.0%
Share of renewable energy in transport 3.5% 4.2% 4.7% 10.0%
Share of renewable energy in electricity 18.8% 19.6% 0.0% n.a.
Share of renewable energy in heating & cooling 12.3% 13.6% 14.3% n.a.
Source: Eurostat
Source and additional information
Greenhouse gas emission data and EU ETS data
In 2010, EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.4% compared to 2009. This was due to the return to economic growth in many countries. In 2010 the
winter was also colder than in the previous year, in particular in northern, central and eastern European countries, leading to increased demand for heating and
higher emissions from the residential and commercial sectors. The 2010 winter in Europe was, on average, colder than in 2009. However, the increase in
emissions was contained by a move from coal to natural gas and the sustained strong growth in renewable energy generation. Emissions from manufacturing
industries and construction increased, mainly driven by the significant increase of the iron and steel production.
www.eea.europa.eu/themes/climate/data-viewers
(5) All installations included. This includes new entrants and closures. Data from the community independent transaction log (CITL) as of 31 July 2012. The CITL
regularly receives new information (including delayed verified emissions data, new entrants and closures) so the figures shown may change over time.
(7) "+" and "-" mean that verified emissions exceeded allowances or were below allowances, respectively. Annual allowances include allocated allowances and
allowances auctioned during the same year.
(8) LULUCF sector and emissions from international bunkers excluded. Due to independent rounding the sums may not necessarily add up.
(6) Constant scope: includes only those installations with verified emissions available for 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011.
(1) Total greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), GHG per capita, GHG per GDP and shares of GHG do not include emissions and removals from LULUCF (carbon
sinks) and emissions from international bunkers.
(3) International bunkers: international aviation and international maritime transport.
(4) Gross domestic product (GDP) in 2005 market prices - not suitable for a ranking or quantitative comparison between countries for the same year. GDP
information for the year 1990 is not available for some countries. For this reason, the 'GHG per GDP' values presented in the '1990' column correspond to the
following years: 1991 (EU-15, Bulgaria, Germany, Hungary and Malta), 1992 (Slovakia), 1993 (EU-27 and Estonia) and 1995 (Croatia). Source GDP: Annual
macro-economic database (AMECO), European Commission, 2012.
(2) Based on EEA estimate of 2011 emissions.
GHG trends and projections in the EU-27
31.8 %
28.2 %
19.7 %
7.3 %
9.8 % 3.0 %
0.2 %
Energy supply
Energy use (excluding transport)
Transport
Industrial processes
Agriculture
Waste
Other
82.4 %
8.5 %
7.1 % 2.0 %
CO2
CH4
N2O
F-gases
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Share of renewable energy in gross final consumption
Share of renewable energy in final consumption of energy in transport
Share of renewable energy in final electricity consumption
Share of renewable energy in final consumption of energy for heating and cooling
Renewable energy target (gross final energy consumption)
Renewable energy target (transport)
EU27 GHG emissions per sector in 2010 Source: EEA (2012)
Key GHG data (1) 1990 2008 2009 2010 2011 (
2) 2012
1990–
2011
2010–
2011 (2)
Total GHG emissions (Mt CO2-eq.) 5 583.1 4 974.4 4 609.9 4 720.9 4 601.6 n.a. -17.6% -2.5%
GHG from international bunkers (3) (Mt CO2-eq.) 183.1 320.6 293.2 284.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
GHG per capita (t CO2-eq. / capita) 11.8 10.0 9.2 9.4 9.2 n.a. -22.6% -2.8%
GHG per GDP (constant prices) (4) (g CO2-eq. / euro) 626 420 407 409 392 n.a. -37.3% -4.0%
EU ETS allocated allowances (free + auctioning) 2 008.7 2 036.9 2 073.0 2 078.6 n.a. 0.3%
EU ETS verified emissions - all installations (5) (Mt CO2-eq.) 2 100.2 1 860.9 1 919.9 1 884.6 n.a. -1.8%
EU ETS verified emissions - constant scope (6) (Mt CO2-eq.) 1 984.4 1 772.4 1 818.7 1 759.5 n.a. -3.3%
Share of EU ETS verified emissions (all install.) in total GHG (%) 42.2 % 40.4 % 40.7 % 41.0 % n.a. 0.7%
ETS verified emissions compared to annual allowances (7) (%) 104.6% 91.4% 92.6% 90.7% n.a. -2.1%
Share of GHG emissions (excluding international bunkers) by main source and by gas in 2010 (1) (
8)
Assessment of short-term GHG trend (2009–2010)
Key data and trends on renewable energy 2008 2009 20102020
target
Share of renewable energy in final consumption 10.5% 11.7% 12.5% 20.0%
Share of renewable energy in transport 3.5% 4.2% 4.7% 10.0%
Share of renewable energy in electricity 18.8% 19.6% 0.0% n.a.
Share of renewable energy in heating & cooling 12.3% 13.6% 14.3% n.a.
Source: Eurostat
Source and additional information
Greenhouse gas emission data and EU ETS data
In 2010, EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.4% compared to 2009. This was due to the return to economic growth in many countries. In 2010 the
winter was also colder than in the previous year, in particular in northern, central and eastern European countries, leading to increased demand for heating and
higher emissions from the residential and commercial sectors. The 2010 winter in Europe was, on average, colder than in 2009. However, the increase in
emissions was contained by a move from coal to natural gas and the sustained strong growth in renewable energy generation. Emissions from manufacturing
industries and construction increased, mainly driven by the significant increase of the iron and steel production.
www.eea.europa.eu/themes/climate/data-viewers
(5) All installations included. This includes new entrants and closures. Data from the community independent transaction log (CITL) as of 31 July 2012. The CITL
regularly receives new information (including delayed verified emissions data, new entrants and closures) so the figures shown may change over time.
(7) "+" and "-" mean that verified emissions exceeded allowances or were below allowances, respectively. Annual allowances include allocated allowances and
allowances auctioned during the same year.
(8) LULUCF sector and emissions from international bunkers excluded. Due to independent rounding the sums may not necessarily add up.
(6) Constant scope: includes only those installations with verified emissions available for 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011.
(1) Total greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), GHG per capita, GHG per GDP and shares of GHG do not include emissions and removals from LULUCF (carbon
sinks) and emissions from international bunkers.
(3) International bunkers: international aviation and international maritime transport.
(4) Gross domestic product (GDP) in 2005 market prices - not suitable for a ranking or quantitative comparison between countries for the same year. GDP
information for the year 1990 is not available for some countries. For this reason, the 'GHG per GDP' values presented in the '1990' column correspond to the
following years: 1991 (EU-15, Bulgaria, Germany, Hungary and Malta), 1992 (Slovakia), 1993 (EU-27 and Estonia) and 1995 (Croatia). Source GDP: Annual
macro-economic database (AMECO), European Commission, 2012.
(2) Based on EEA estimate of 2011 emissions.
GHG trends and projections in the EU-27
31.8 %
28.2 %
19.7 %
7.3 %
9.8 % 3.0 %
0.2 %
Energy supply
Energy use (excluding transport)
Transport
Industrial processes
Agriculture
Waste
Other
82.4 %
8.5 %
7.1 % 2.0 %
CO2
CH4
N2O
F-gases
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Share of renewable energy in gross final consumption
Share of renewable energy in final consumption of energy in transport
Share of renewable energy in final electricity consumption
Share of renewable energy in final consumption of energy for heating and cooling
Renewable energy target (gross final energy consumption)
Renewable energy target (transport)
Conclusions
• Climate Change has impact on crop yield/agricultural production. Adaption of current production system is possible for relatively mild rates of climate change. No policy intervention needed.
• Stronger climate change, climate extremes? Diseases? Potential for growing different crops?
• Large adaption potential from targetted (deficit) irrigation with limited water demand.
• Uncertainty on future water availability, competition on allocation of limited water resources. Technological/societal limitations.
• Opportunities and need for increased mitigation along with adaptation- agriculture is in Europe and the world an important sector for GHG emissions
• Evaluation of adaptation measures (farm level, policy). Improved resource efficiency.
• Impact on commodity prices, farm income, agricultural sector.
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17
SECOND-ORDER DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 7
Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute 72 28 March 2013
Figure 7-4: Since the AR4 report, food prices have reversed historical downward trend. Plot shows history of FAO
food and cereal price index, along with events when a top 5 producer of a crop had yields 25% below trend line
(indicative of a big weather effect). Australia is included despite not being a top five producer, because it is an
important exporter and the drops were 40% or more below trend line. Prices may have become more sensitive to
weather-related supply shortfalls in recent years, perhaps reflecting the importance of interactions with global
storage levels and rapid growth in crop demand. At the same time, because of increased biofuel demand, food prices
are also increasingly linked to the price of crude oil, shown in the blue line (data available at http://www.eia.gov).
Therefore, there is clear evidence since AR4 that prices can rise rapidly, but the role of weather in these increases
remains unclear. All indices are expressed as percentage of 2002-2004 averages.
Several periods of rapid food and cereal price increases following climate extremes in key producing regions indicate a sensitivity of current markets to climate extremes among
other factors (medium confidence); IPCC WG2 Chapter 7
Food price variability (IPCC AR5) climate extremes
• Climate change will have strong impact on global agricultural production and markets. Understanding the interaction of climate change with global agricultural production needs to be improved
18
20 years of in support to the implementation and
monitoring of Common Agricultural Policy
Contacts: [email protected] [email protected]
Thank you for your attention!