Claim That Sea Level IsRising Is a Total Fraud
Interview: Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner
Juneâ22,â2007â âEIRâ
Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner is the head of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics department at Stockholm University in Swe-den. He is past president (1999-2003) of the INQUA Com-mission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution, and leader of the Maldives Sea Level Project. Dr. Mörner has been studying the sea level and its effects on coastal areas for some 35 years. He was interviewed by Gregory Murphy on June 6 for EIR.
EIR:âIâwouldâlikeâtoâstartâwithâaâlittleâbitâaboutâyourâback-ground,âandâsomeâofâ theâcommissionsâandâresearchâgroupsâyouâveâworkedâon.Mörner:â Iâ amâaâ sea-levelâ specialist.âThereâareâmanyâgoodâsea-levelâpeopleâinâtheâworld,âbutâletâsâputâitâthisâway:âThereâsânoâoneâwhoâsâbeatenâme.âIâtookâmyâthesisâinâ1969,âdevotedâtoâaâlargeâextentâtoâtheâsea-levelâproblem.âFromâthenâon,âIâhaveâlaunchedâmostâofâtheânewâtheories,âinâtheââ70s,ââ80s,âandââ90s.âIâwasâtheâoneâwhoâunderstoodâtheâproblemâofâtheâgravitationalâpotentialâsurface,âtheâtheoryâthatâitâchangesâwithâtime.âIâmâtheâoneâwhoâstudiedâtheârotationâofâtheâEarth,âhowâitâaffectedâtheâredistributionâofâtheâoceansââmasses.âAndâsoâon.âAndâthenâIâwasâpresidentâofâINQUA,âanâinternationalâfraternalâassocia-tion,â theirâCommissionâonâSea-LevelâChangesâ andâCoastalâEvolution,âfromâ1999âtoâ2003.âAndâinâorderâtoâdoâsomethingâintelligentâthere,âweâlaunchedâaâspecialâinternationalâsea-levelâresearchâprojectâ inâ theâMaldives,â becauseâ thatâsâ theâhottestâspotâ onâ Earthâ forâthereâ areâ soâ manyâ variablesâ interactingâthere,âsoâitâwasâinteresting,âandâalsoâpeopleâhadâclaimedâthatâtheâMaldivesâaboutâ1,200âsmallâislandsâwereâdoomedâtoâdisappearâinâ50âyears,âorâatâmost,â100âyears.âSoâthatâwasâaâveryâimportantâtarget.
ThenâIâhaveâhadâmyâownâresearchâinstituteâatâStockholmâUniversity,âwhichâwasâdevotedâtoâsomethingâcalledâpaleogeo-physicsâandâgeodynamics.âItâsâprimarilyâaâresearchâinstitute,âbutâlotsâofâstudentsâcame,âandâIâhaveâseveralâPhDâthesesâatâmyâinstitute,âandâlotsâofâvisitingâprofessorsâandâresearchâscientistsâcameâtoâ learnâaboutâseaâlevel.âWorkingâinâ thisâfield,âIâdonâtâthinkâthereâsâaâspotâonâtheâEarthâIâhavenâtâbeenâin!âInâtheânorth-most,âGreenland;âandâinâAntarctica;âandâallâaroundâtheâEarth,âandâveryâmuchâatâtheâcoasts.âSoâIâhaveâprimaryâdataâfromâsoâ
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manyâplaces,âthatâwhenâIâmâspeaking,âIâdonâtâdoâitâoutâofâigno-rance,âbutâonâtheâcontrary,âIâknowâwhatâIâmâtalkingâabout.âAndâIâhaveâinteractionâwithâotherâscientificâbranches,âbecauseâitâsâveryâimportantâtoâseeâtheâproblemsânotâjustâfromâoneâeye,âbutâfromâmanyâdifferentâaspects.âSometimesâyouâdigâupâsomeâveryâimportantâthingâinâsomeâgeodesicâpaperâwhichânoâotherâgeolo-gistâwouldâread.âAndâyouâmustâhaveâtheâtimeâandâtheâcourageâtoâgoâintoâtheâbigâquestions,âandâIâthinkâIâhaveâdoneâthat.
Theâlastâtenâyearsâorâso,âofâcourse,âeverythingâhasâbeenâtheâdiscussionâonâseaâlevel,âwhichâtheyâsayâisâdrowningâus;âinâtheâearlyââ90s,âIâwasâinâWashingtonâgivingâaâpaperâonâhowâtheâseaâlevelâisânotârising,âasâtheyâsaid.âThatâhadâsomeâechoesâaroundâtheâworld.
EIR:âWhatâisâtheârealâstateâofâtheâsea-levelârising?Mörner:âYouâhaveâtoâlookâatâthatâinâaâlotâofâdifferentâways.âThatâisâwhatâIâhaveâdoneâinâaâlotâofâdifferentâpapers,âsoâweâcanâconfineâourselvesâtoâtheâshortâstoryâhere.âOneâwayâisâtoâlookâatâtheâglobalâpicture,âtoâtryâtoâfindâtheâessenceâofâwhatâisâgoingâon.âAndâthenâweâcanâseeâthatâtheâseaâlevelâwasâindeedârising,âfrom,âletâusâsay,â1850âtoâ1930-40.âAndâthatâriseâhadâaârateâinâtheâorderâofâ1âmillimeterâperâyear.âNotâmore.â1.1âisâtheâexactâfigure.âAndâweâcanâcheckâthat,âbecauseâHollandâisâaâsubsidingâarea;âitâhasâbeenâsubsidingâforâmanyâmillionsâofâyears;âandâSweden,âafterâtheâlastâIceâAge,âwasâuplifted.âSoâifâyouâbalanceâthose,âthereâisâonlyâoneâsolution,âandâitâwillâbeâthisâfigure.
Thatâ endedâ inâ 1940,â andâ thereâ hadâ beenâ noâ riseâ untilâ1970;âandâthenâweâcanâcomeâintoâtheâdebateâhereâonâwhatâisâgoingâon,âandâweâhaveâtoâgoâtoâsatelliteâaltimetry,âandâIâwillâreturnâtoâthat.âButâbeforeâdoingâthat:âThereâsâanotherâwayâofâcheckingâit,âbecauseâifâtheâradiusâofâtheâEarthâincreases,âbe-causeâseaâlevelâisârising,âthenâimmediatelyâtheâEarthâsârateâofârotationâwouldâslowâdown.âThatâisâaâphysicalâlaw,âright?âYouâhaveâitâinâfigure-skating:âwhenâtheyârotateâveryâfast,âtheâarmsâareâcloseâtoâtheâbody;âandâthenâwhenâtheyâincreaseâtheâradi-us,âbyâputtingâoutâtheirâarms,âtheyâstopâbyâthemselves.âSoâyouâcanâlookâatâtheârotationâandâtheâsameâcomesâup:âYes,âitâmightâbeâ1.1âmmâperâyear,âbutâabsolutelyânotâmore.âItâcouldâbeâ less,âbecauseâ thereâcouldâbeâotherâ factorsâaffectingâ theâ
örner.resident of the International Union for Quaternary Researchâs ssion on Sea-Level Changes and Coastal Evolution (1999-2003). Its hat the catastrophic predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on IPCC), based on computer models of the effects of global warming,
ea-Level Rise in the Maldives
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Earth,âbutâitâcertainlyâcouldânotâbeâmore.âAb-solutelyânot!âAgain,âitâsâaâmatterâofâphysics.
So,âweâhaveâthisâ1âmmâperâyearâupâtoâ1930,âbyâobservation,âandâweâhaveâitâbyârotationâre-cording.âSoâweâgoâwithâthoseâtwo.âTheyâgoâupâandâdown,âbutâthereâsânoâtrendâinâit;âitâwasâupâuntilâ1930,âandâthenâdownâagain.âThereâsânoâtrend,âabsolutely no trend.
Anotherâwayâofâlookingâatâwhatâisâgoingâonâ isâ theâ tideâ gauge.âTideâ gaugingâ isâ veryâcomplicated,âbecauseâ itâ givesâdifferentâ an-swersâforâwhereverâyouâareâinâtheâworld.âButâweâhaveâtoârelyâonâgeologyâwhenâweâinter-pretâit.âSo,âforâexample,âthoseâpeopleâinâtheâIPCCâ [Intergovernmentalâ Panelâ onâ ClimateâChange],âchooseâHongâKong,âwhichâhasâsixâtideâ gauges,â andâ theyâ chooseâ theâ recordâ ofâone,âwhichâgivesâ2.3âmmâperâyearâriseâofâseaâlevel.â Everyâ geologistâ knowsâ thatâ thatâ isâ aâsubsidingâ area.â Itâsâ theâ compactionâ ofâ sedi-ment;âitâisâtheâonlyârecordâwhichâyouâshouldnâtâuse.âAndâifâthatâfigureâisâcorrect,âthenâHollandâwouldânotâbeâsubsiding,âitâwouldâbeâuplifting.âAndâ thatâ isâ justâ ridiculous.â Notâ evenâ igno-ranceâcouldâbeâresponsibleâforâaâthingâlikeâthat.âSoâtideâgaug-es,âyouâhaveâtoâtreatâvery,âveryâcarefully.
Now,âbackâtoâsatelliteâaltimetry,âwhichâshowsâtheâwater,ânotâjustâtheâcoasts,âbutâinâtheâwholeâofâtheâocean.âAndâyouâmeasureâitâbyâsatellite.âFromâ1992âtoâ2002,â[theâgraphâofâtheâseaâlevel]âwasâaâstraightâline,âvariabilityâalongâaâstraightâline,âbutâabsolute-lyânoâtrendâwhatsoever.âWeâcouldâseeâthoseâspikes:âaâveryârapidârise,âbutâthenâinâhalfâaâyear,âtheyâfallâbackâagain.âButâabsolutelyânoâtrend,âandâtoâhaveâaâsea-levelârise,âyouâneedâaâtrend.
Then,âinâ2003,âtheâsameâdataâset,âwhichâinâtheirâ[IPCCâs]âpublications,âinâtheirâwebsite,âwasâaâstraightâlineâsuddenlyâitâchanged,âandâshowedâaâveryâstrongâlineâofâuplift,â2.3âmmâperâyear,âtheâsameâasâfromâtheâtideâgauge.âAndâthatâdidnâtâlookâsoânice.âItâ lookedâasâthoughâtheyâhadârecordedâsomething;âbutâtheyâhadnâtârecordedâanything.âItâwasâtheâoriginalâoneâwhichâtheyâhadâsuddenlyâtwistedâup,âbecauseâtheyâenteredâaââcorrec-tionâfactor,ââwhichâtheyâtookâfromâtheâtideâgauge.âSoâitâwasânotâaâmeasuredâthing,âbutâaâfigureâintroducedâfromâoutside.âIâaccusedâ themâ ofâ thisâ atâ theâAcademyâ ofâ Sciencesâ inâ Mos-cowâIâsaidâyouâhaveâintroducedâfactorsâfromâoutside;âitâsânotâaâmeasurement.âItâlooksâlikeâitâisâmeasuredâfromâtheâsatellite,âbutâyouâdonâtâsayâwhatâreallyâhappened.âAndâtheyâanswered,âthatâweâhadâtoâdoâit,âbecauseâotherwiseâweâwouldânotâhaveâgot-tenâanyâtrend!
Thatâisâterrible!âAsâaâmatterâofâfact,âitâisâaâfalsificationâofâtheâdataâset.âWhy?âBecauseâtheyâknowâtheâanswer.âAndâthereâyouâcomeâtoâtheâpoint:âTheyââknowââtheâanswer;âtheârestâofâus,âweâareâsearchingâforâtheâanswer.âBecauseâweâareâfieldâ geologists;â theyâ areâ computerâ scientists.â Soâ allâ thisâtalkâthatâseaâlevelâisârising,âthisâstemsâfromâtheâcomputerâ
Source: Nils-Axel MDr. Mörner was p(INQUA) Commiresearch proved tClimate Change (are ânonsense.â
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modeling,ânotâ fromâobservations.âTheâobservationsâdonâtâfindâit!
IâhaveâbeenâtheâexpertâreviewerâforâtheâIPCC,âbothâinâ2000âandâlastâyear.âTheâfirstâtimeâIâreadâit,âIâwasâexceptionallyâsur-prised.â Firstâ ofâ all,â itâ hadâ 22â authors,â butâ noneâ ofâ themânoneâwereâsea-levelâspecialists.âTheyâwereâgivenâthisâmis-sion,âbecauseâtheyâpromisedâtoâanswerâtheârightâthing.âAgain,âitâwasâaâcomputerâissue.âThisâisâtheâtypicalâthing:âTheâmetereo-logicalâcommunityâworksâwithâcomputers,âsimpleâcomputers.âGeologistsâdonâtâdoâthat!âWeâgoâoutâinâtheâfieldâandâobserve,âandâthenâweâcanâtryâtoâmakeâaâmodelâwithâcomputerization;âbutâitâsânotâtheâfirstâthing.
Soâthereâweâare.âThenâweâwentâtoâtheâMaldives.âIâtracedââaâdropâinâseaâlevelâinâtheâ1970s,âandâtheâfishermenâtoldâme,ââYes,âyouâareâcorrect,âbecauseâweârememberââthingsâinâtheirâsail-ingâroutesâhaveâchanged,âthingsâinâtheirâharborâhaveâchanged.âIâworkedâinâtheâlagoon,âIâdrilledâinâtheâsea,âIâdrilledâinâlakes,âIâlookedâatâtheâshoreâmorphologyâsoâmanyâdifferentâenviron-ments.âAlwaysâ theâ sameâ thing:â Inâ aboutâ 1970,â theâ seaâ fellâaboutâ20âcm,âforâreasonsâinvolvingâprobablyâevaporationâorâsomething.âNotâaâchangeâinâvolumeâorâsomethingâlikeâthatâitâwasâaârapidâthing.âTheânewâlevel,âwhichâhasâbeenâstable,âhasânotâchangedâinâtheâlastâ35âyears.âYouâcanâtraceâitâsoâvery,âveryâcarefully.âNoâriseâatâallâisâtheâanswerâthere.
Anotherâ famousâplaceâ isâ theâTuvaluâ Islands,âwhichâ areâsupposedâtoâsoonâdisappearâbecauseâtheyâveâputâoutâtooâmuchâcarbonâdioxide.âThereâweâhaveâaâtideâgaugeârecord,âaâvario-graphârecord,âfromâ1978,âsoâitâsâ30âyears.âAndâagain,âifâyouâlookâthere,âabsolutely no trend,ânoârise.
So,âfromâwhereâdoâtheyâgetâthisâriseâinâtheâTuvaluâIslands?
Courtesy of Nils-Axel Mörner
aldives shows no evidence of having been swept away by rising sea redicted by the global warming swindlers. A group of Australian ocates came along and pulled the tree down, destroying the evidence as false.
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ThenâweâknowâthatâthereâwasâaâJapa-neseâpineappleâindustryâwhichâsubtractedâtooâmuchâfreshâwaterâfromâtheâinland,âandâthoseâislandsâhaveâveryâlittleâfreshâwaterâavailibleâ fromâ precipitation,â rain.â So,â ifâyouâ takeâoutâ tooâmuch,âyouâdestroyâ theâwaterâmagazine,âandâyouâbringâseaâwaterâintoâtheâmagazine,âwhichâisânotânice.âSoâtheyâtookâoutâtooâmuchâfreshâwaterâandâinâcameâsaltâwater.âAndâofâcourseâtheâlocalâpeopleâwereâupset.âButâthenâitâwasâmuchâeasierâtoâsay,ââNo,âno!âItâsâtheâglobalâseaâlevelârising!âItâhasânothingâtoâdoâwithâourâsubtractionâofâfreshâwater.ââSoâthereâyouâhaveâ it.â Thisâ isâ aâ localâ industryâ whichâdoesnâtâpay.
Youâ haveâ Vanuatu,â andâ alsoâ inâ theâPacific,ânorthâofâNewâZealandâandâFijiâthereâisâtheâislandâTegua.âTheyâsaidâtheyâhadâtoâevacuateâit,âbecauseâtheâseaâlevelâwasâ rising.â Butâ again,â youâ lookâ atâ theâtide-gaugeâ record:â Thereâ isâ absolutelyânoâsignalâ thatâ theâseaâ levelâ isâ rising.â Ifâanything,âyouâcouldâsayâthatâmaybeâtheâtideâisâloweringâaâlittleâbit,âbutâabsolutelyânoârising.
Andâagain,âwhereâdoâtheyâgetâitâfrom?âTheyâgetâitâfromâtheirâinspiration,âtheirâhopes,âtheirâcomputerâmodels,âbutânotâfromâobservation.âWhichâisâterrible.
Weâ haveâVenice.âVeniceâ isâ wellâ known,â becauseâ thatâareaâisâ techtonically,âbecauseâofâtheâdelta,âslowlyâsubsid-ing.âTheârateâhasâbeenâconstantâoverâtime.âAârisingâseaâlevelâwouldâimmediatelyâaccelerateâtheâflooding.âAndâitâwouldâbeâsoâsimpleâtoârecordâit.âAndâifâyouâlookâatâthatâ300-yearârecord:â Inâ theâ 20thâ Centuryâ itâ wasâ goingâ upâ andâ down,âaroundâtheâsubsidenceârate.âInâ1970,âyouâshouldâhaveâanâac-celeration,âbutâinstead,âtheâriseâalmostâfinished.âSoâitâwasâtheâopposite.
Ifâyouâgoâaroundâtheâglobe,âyouâfindânoâriseâanywhere.âButâtheyâneedâtheârise,âbecauseâifâthereâisânoârise,âthereâisânoâdeathâthreat.âTheyâsayâthereâisânothingâgoodâtoâcomeâfromâaâsea-levelârise,âonlyâproblems,âcoastalâproblems.âIfâyouâhaveâaâtemperatureârise,âifâitâsâaâproblemâinâoneâarea,âitâsâbeneficialâinâanotherâarea.âButâseaâlevelâisâtheârealââbadâguy,ââandâthere-foreâtheyâhaveâtalkedâveryâmuchâaboutâit.âButâtheârealâthingâis,âthatâitâdoesnâtâexistâinâobservationalâdata,âonlyâinâcomputerâmodeling.
EIR:â Iâwatchedâtheâdocumentary,ââDoomsdayâCalledâOff,ââthatâyouâwereâpartâof.âAndâyouâwereâshowingâ theâphysicalâtidesâinâtheâMaldives,âtheâtreeâthatâwasâthere;âandâifâthereâhadâbeenâaâsea-levelâ rise,â thatâ treeâwouldâhaveâbeenâgone.âAndâhowâtheâcoralâwasâbuiltâupâonâtheâbeachâinâtwoâdifferentâlevels,âshowingâtwoâdifferentâlevelsâofârise.âTheâwayâyouâpresentedâitâ
A famous tree in the Mlevels, as would be pglobal-warming advthat their âtheoryâ w
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wasâhowâgeologistsâdoâaâsiteâsurveyâtoâputâtheirâfindingsâintoâcontext.Mörner:âIâllâtellâyouâanotherâthing:âWhenâIâcameâtoâtheâMal-dives,âtoâourâenormousâsurprise,âoneâmorningâweâwereâonâanâisland,âandâIâsaid,ââThisâisâsomethingâstrange,âtheâstormâlevelâhasâgoneâdown;âitâhasânotâgoneâup,âitâhasâgoneâdown.ââAndâthenâIâstartedâtoâcheckâtheâlevelâallâaround,âandâIâaskedâtheâoth-ersâinâtheâgroup,ââDoâyouâseeâanythingâhereâonâtheâbeach?ââAndâafterâawhileâtheyâfoundâitâtoo.âAndâweâhadâinvestigated,âandâweâwereâsure,âIâsaidâweâcannotâleaveâtheâMaldivesâandâgoâhomeâandâsayâtheâseaâlevelâisânotârising,âitâsânotârespectfulâtoâtheâpeople.âIâhaveâtoâsayâitâtoâMaldiveâtelevision.âSoâweâmadeâaâveryâniceâprogramâforâMaldiveâtelevision,âbutâitâwasâforbid-denâbyâtheâgovernment!âBecauseâtheyâthoughtâthatâtheyâwouldâloseâmoney.âTheyâaccuseâtheâWestâforâputtingâoutâcarbonâdiox-ide,â andâ thereforeâ weâ haveâ toâ payâ forâ ourâ damageâ andâ theâflooding.âSoâtheyâwantedâtheâfloodingâscenarioâtoâgoâon.
Thisâtree,âwhichâIâshowedâinâtheâdocumentary,âisâinterest-ing.âThisâisâaâprisonâisland,âandâwhenâpeopleâleftâtheâisland,âfromâtheââ50s,âitâwasâaâmarkerâforâthem,âwhenâtheyâsawâthisâtreeâaloneâoutâthere,âtheyâsaid,ââAh,âfreedom!ââTheyâwereâal-lowedâback.âAndâthereâhaveâbeenâwritingsâandâtalksâaboutâthis.âIâknewâthatâthisâtreeâwasâinâthatâterribleâpositionâalreadyâinâtheâ1950s.âSoâtheâslightestârise,âandâitâwouldâhaveâbeenâgone.
Iâusedâitâinâmyâwritingsâandâforâtelevision.âYouâknowâwhatâhappened?âThereâcameâanâAustralianâsea-levelâteam,âwhichâwasâforâtheâIPCCâandâagainstâme.âThenâtheâstudentsâpulledâ
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downâtheâtreeâbyâhand!âTheyâdestroyedâtheâevidence.âWhatâkindâofâpeopleâareâthose?âAndâweâcameâtoâlaunchâthisâfilm,ââDoomsdayâ Calledâ Off,ââ rightâ after,â andâ theâ treeâ wasâ stillâgreen.âAndâIâheardâfromâtheâlocalsâthatâtheyâhadâseenâtheâpeo-pleâwhoâhadâpulledâitâdown.âSoâIâputâitâupâagain,âbyâhand,âandâmadeâmyâTVâprogram.âIâhavenâtâtoldâanybodyâelse,âbutâthisâwasâtheâstory.
Theyâ callâ themselvesâ scientists,â andâ theyâreâ destroyingâevidence!âAâscientistâshouldâalwaysâbeâopenâforâreinterpreta-tion,âbutâyouâcanâneverâdestroyâevidence.âAndâtheyâwereâbeingâwatched,âthinkingâtheyâwereâclever.
EIR:âHowâdoesâtheâIPCCâgetâtheseâsmallâislandânationsâsoâworkedâupâaboutâworryingâthatâtheyâreâgoingâtoâbeâfloodedâto-morrow?Mörner:âBecauseâtheyâgetâsupport,âtheyâgetâmoney,âsoâtheirâideaâ isâ toâ attractâ moneyâ fromâ theâ industrialâ countries.âAndâtheyâbelieveâthatâifâtheâstoryâisânotâsustained,âtheyâwillâloseâit.âSo,âtheyâloveâthisâstory.âButâtheâlocalâpeopleâinâtheâMaldivesâitâwouldâbeâterribleâtoâraiseâchildrenâwhyâshouldâtheyâgoâtoâschool,âifâinâ50âyearsâeverythingâwillâbeâgone?âTheâonlyâthingâyouâshouldâdo,âisâlearnâhowâtoâswim.
EIR:âToâtakeâyourâexampleâofâTuvalu,âitâseemsâtoâbeâmoreâofâaâcaseâofâhowâtheâwaterâmanagementâisâgoingâon,âratherâthanâtheâseaâlevelârising.Mörner:âYes,âandâitâsâmuchâbetterâtoâblameâsomethingâelse.âThenâtheyâcanâwashâtheirâhandsâandâsay,ââItâsânotâourâfault.âItâsâtheâU.S.,âtheyâreâputtingâoutâtooâmuchâcarbonâdioxide.â
EIR:âWhichâisâlaughable,âthisâideaâthatâCO2âisâdrivingâglobalâ
warming.Mörner:âPrecisely,âthatâsâanotherâthing.
AndâlikeâthisâState of Fear,âbyâMichaelâCrichton,âwhenâheâtalksâaboutâice.âWhereâisâiceâmelting?âSomeâAlpineâgla-ciersâareâmelting,âothersâareâadvancing.âAntarcticâiceâisâcer-tainlyânotâmelting;âallâtheâAntarcticârecordsâshowâexpansionâofâice.âGreenlandâisâtheâdarkâhorseâhereâforâsure;âtheâArcticâmayâbeâmelting,âbutâitâdoesnâtâmatter,âbecauseâtheyâreâalreadyâfloating,â andâ itâ hasâ noâ effect.â Aâ glacierâ likeâ Kilimanjaro,âwhichâisâimportant,âonâtheâEquator,âisâonlyâmeltingâbecauseâofâdeforestation.âAtâtheâfootâofâtheâKilimanjaro,âthereâwasâaârainâ forest;â fromâ theâ rainâ forestâ cameâ moisture,â fromâ thatâcameâsnow,âandâsnowâbecameâice.âNow,âtheyâhaveâcutâdownâtheâ rainâ forest,â andâ insteadâofâmoisture,â thereâ comesâheat;âheatâmeltsâtheâice,âandâthereâsânoâmoreâsnowâtoâgenerateâtheâice.âSoâitâsâaâsimpleâthing,âbutâhasânothingâtoâdoâwithâtemper-ature.âItâsâtheâmisbehaviorâofâtheâpeopleâaroundâtheâmoun-tain.âSoâagain,âitâsâlikeâTuvalu:âWeâshouldâsayâthisâdeforesta-tion,âthatâsâtheâthing.âButâinsteadâtheyâsay,ââNo,âno,âitâsâtheâglobalâwarming!â
EIR:âHere,âoverâtheâlastâfewâdays,âthereâwasâaâgroupingâthatâsentâoutâaâpower-pointâpresentationâonâmeltingâglaciers,âandâ
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howâthisâ isâgoingâ toâraiseâseaâ levelâandâcreateâallâkindsâofâproblems.Mörner:âTheâonlyâplaceâthatâhasâthatâpotentialâisâGreenland,âandâGreenlandâeastâisânotâmelting;âGreenlandâwest,âtheâDiscoâBayâisâmelting,âbutâitâhasâbeenâmeltingâforâ200âyears,âatâleast,âandâtheârateâofâmeltingâdecreasedâinâtheâlastâ50-100âyears.âSo,âthatâsâanotherâfalsification.
Butâ moreâ important,â inâ 5,000â years,â theâ wholeâ ofâ theâNorthernâ Hemisphereâ experiencedâ warming,â theâ HoloceneâWarmâOptimum,âandâitâwasâ2.5âdegreesâwarmerâthanâtoday.âAndâ still,â noâ problemâ withâAntarctica,â orâ withâ Greenland;âstill,ânoâhigherâseaâlevel.
EIR:â Theseâ scareâ storiesâ areâ beingâ usedâ forâ politicalâ pur-poses.Mörner:âYes.âAgain,âthisâisâforâme,âtheâlineâofâdemarcationâbetweenâtheâmeteorologicalâcommunityâandâus:âTheyâworkâwithâcomputers;âweâgeologistsâworkâwithâobservations,âandâtheâ observationsâ doâ notâ fitâ withâ theseâ scenarios.â Soâ whatâshouldâyouâchange?âWeâcannotâchangeâobservations,âsoâweâhaveâtoâchangeâtheâscenarios!
Insteadâofâdoingâthis,âtheyâgiveâanâendlessâamountâofâmon-eyâ toâ theâ sideâ whichâ agreesâ withâ theâ IPCC.âTheâ EuropeanâCommunity,âwhichâhasâgoneâfarâinâthisâthing:âIfâyouâwantâaâgrantâforâaâresearchâprojectâinâclimatology,âitâisâwrittenâintoâtheâdocumentâthatâthereâmustâbeâaâfocusâonâglobalâwarming.âAllâtheârestâofâus,âweâcanâneverâgetâaâcoinâthere,âbecauseâweâareânotâfulfillingâtheâbasicâobligations.âThatâisâreallyâbad,âbecauseâthenâyouâstartâaskingâforâtheâanswerâyouâwantâtoâget.âThatâsâwhatâdictatorshipsâdid,âautocracies.âTheyâdemandedâthatâsci-entistsâproduceâwhatâtheyâwanted.
EIR:âIncreasinglyâscienceâisâgoingâinâthisâdirection,âincludingâinâtheânuclearâindustryâitâsâlikeâplayingâcomputerâgames.âItâsâlikeâtheâdesignâofâtheâAudi,âwhichâwasâdoneâbyâcomputer,âbutânotâtestedâinâreality,âandâitâflippedâover.âTheyâdidnâtâcareâaboutâphysicalâprinciples.Mörner:âYouâfrightenâaâlotâofâscientists.âIfâtheyâsayâthatâcli-mateâ isâ notâ changing,â theyâ loseâ theirâ researchâ grants.âAndâsomeâpeopleâcannotâaffordâthat;âtheyâbecomeâsilent,âorâaâfewâofâusâspeakâup,âbecauseâweâthinkâthatâitâsâforâtheâhonestyâofâscience,âthatâweâhaveâtoâdoâit.
EIR:âInâoneâofâyourâpapers,âyouâmentionedâhowâtheâexpan-sionâofâseaâlevelâchangedâtheâEarthâsârotationâintoâdifferentâmodesâthatâwasâquiteâanâeye-opener.Mörner:âYes,âbutâitâisâexceptionallyâhardâtoâgetâtheseâpapersâpublishedâalso.âTheâpublishersâcompareâitâtoâIPCCâsâmodel-ing,âandâsay,ââOh,âthisâisnâtâtheâIPCC.ââWell,âluckilyâitâsânot!âButâyouâcannotâsayâthat.
EIR:âWhatâwereâyouâtellingâmeâtheâotherâday,âaboutâ22âau-thorsâbeingâfromâAustria?Mörner:âThreeâofâthemâwereâfromâAustria,âwhereâthereâisânotâ
evenâaâcoast!âTheâothersâwereânotâspecialists.âSoâthatâsâwhy,âwhenâIâbecameâpresidentâofâtheâINQUAâCommissionâonâSea-Levelâ Changeâ andâ Coastalâ Evolution,â weâ madeâ aâ researchâproject,âandâweâhadâthisâupâforâdiscussionâatâfiveâinternationalâmeetings.âAndâallâtheâtrueâseaâlevelâspecialistsâagreedâonâthisâfigure,âthatâinâ100âyears,âweâmightâhaveâaâriseâofâ10âcm,âwithâanâuncertaintyâofâplusâorâminusâ10âcmâthatâsânotâveryâmuch.âAndâinârecentâyears,âIâevenâimprovedâit,âbyâconsideringâalsoâthatâweâreâgoingâintoâaâcoldâphaseâinâ40âyears.âThatâgivesâ5âcmârise,âplusâorâminusâaâfewâcentimeters.âThatâsâourâbestâestimate.âButâthatâsâvery,âveryâdifferentâfromâtheâIPCCâstatement.
Oursâisâjustâaâcontinuationâofâtheâpatternâofâseaâlevelâgo-ingâbackâinâtime.âThenâyouâhaveâabsolutelyâmaximumâfig-ures,âlikeâwhenâweâhadâallâtheâiceâinâtheâvanishingâiceâcapsâthatâhappenedâtoâbeâtooâfarâsouthâinâlatitudeâafterâtheâIceâAge.âYouâcouldnâtâhaveâmoreâmeltingâthanâafterâtheâIceâAge.âYouâreachâupâtoâ10âmmâperâyearâthatâwasâtheâsuper-maximum:â1âmeterâ inâ100âyears.âHudsonâBay,â inâaâveryâshortâperiod,âmeltedâaway:âitâcameâupâtoâ12âmmâperâyear.âButâtheseâareâsoâexceptionallyâlarge,âthatâweâcannotâbeâanywhereânearâit;âbutâstillâpeopleâhaveâbeenâsaying,â1âmeter,â3âmeters.âItâsânotâfea-sible!âTheseâareâfiguresâwhichâareâsoâlarge,âthatâonlyâwhenâtheâiceâcapsâwereâvanishing,âdidâweâhaveâ thoseâ typesâofârates.âTheyâareâabsolutelyâextreme.âThisâframeâisâsetâbyâtheâmaxi-mum-maximumârate,âandâweâhaveâtoâbeâfar,âfarâlower.âWeâareâ
Juneâ22,â2007â âEIRâ
If You Thought Adam Smith Was The Founding Father of
Americaâs Economic StrengthâThink Again.READ
Friedrich List: Outlines ofAmerican Political EconomyâI confine my exertions solely to therefutation of the theory of Adam Smithand Co. the fundamental errors ofwhich have not yet been understood soclearly as they ought to be. It is thistheory, sir, which furnishes to theopponents of the American System theintellectual means of their opposition.â
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basingâ ourselvesâ onâ theâ observationsâinâ theâ past,â inâ theâpresent,âandâthenâpredictingâitâintoâtheâfuture,âwithâtheâbestâofâtheââfeetâonâtheâgroundââdataâthatâweâcanâget,ânotâfromâtheâcomputer.
EIR:âIsnâtâsomeâofâwhatâpeopleâareâtalkingâaboutâjustâshore-lineâerosion,âasâopposedâtoâsea-levelârise?Mörner:âYes,âandâIâhaveâveryâniceâpicturesâofâit.âIfâyouâhaveâaâcoast,âwithâsomeâstabilityâofâtheâseaâlevel,âtheâwavesâmakeâaâkindâofâequilibriumâprofileâwhatâtheyâareâtransportingâintoâtheâseaâandâwhatâtheyâareâtransportingâonshore.âIfâtheâseaârisesâaâlittle,âyes,âitâattacks,âbutâtheâattackâisânotâsoâvigorous.âOnâtheâotherâhand,âifâtheâseaâgoesâdown,âitâisâeatingâawayâatâtheâoldâequilibriumâ level.â Thereâ isâ aâ muchâ largerâ redistributionâ ofâsand.
Weâhadâanâisland,âwhereâthereâwasâheavyâerosion,âevery-thingâ wasâ fallingâ intoâ theâ sea,â treesâ andâ soâ on.â Butâ ifâ youâlookedâatâwhatâhappened:âTheâsandâwhichâdisappearedâthere,âifâtheâseaâlevelâhadâgoneâup,âthatâsandâwouldâhaveâbeenâplacedâhigher,âonâtopâofâtheâpreviousâland.âButâitâisâbeingâplacedâbe-lowâtheâpreviousâbeach.âWeâcanâseeâtheâpreviousâbeach,âandâitâisâ20-30âcmâaboveâtheâcurrentâbeach.âSoâthisâisâerosionâbe-causeâtheâseaâlevelâfell,ânotâbecauseâtheâseaâlevelârose.âAndâitâisâmoreâcommonâthatâerosionâisâcausedâbyâfallingâseaâlevel,âthanâbyârisingâseaâlevel.
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