City of Vancouver Transportation Vehicle & Fuels - Strategy & Policy
Analysis for 100% Renewable by 2050
• Prepared for Malcolm Shield, City of Vancouver
• Authored by:• Craig Louie, SysEne Consulting• Andreas Truckenbrodt, Truckenbrodt Clean Energy Consulting
July 28, 2015
26 July 2016 Commercial Confidential Sysene Consulting Inc. 1
Summary
• Achieving a goal of 100% renewable transportation in the City of Vancouver (CoV) by 2050 is the most challenging task (vs. buildings etc.).
• Efficiency, reducing vehicle km travelled, new mobility concepts are required.
• Transportation vehicles will need to be a combination of battery electric, fuel cell electric, and biofuel internal combustion. Electric vehicles are not likely practical or economic in the 2050 timeframe for larger vehicles or heavy duty transport.
• Fuel sources need to become fully renewable. • Relatively easy for electricity and hydrogen to be fully renewable and economic in
BC because of the large amount of hydroelectric• More difficult for biofuels because conventional biofuels have many issues and
advanced biofuels to address those issues have uncertain availability
• There is worldwide competition for renewable transportation vehicles, and Vancouver will need to become one of the leading regions to acquire sufficient vehicle supply
• Policy support must be strong, aggressive, complete, and leading. Both demand and supply (i.e. ZEV mandate) policies are required. While the CoVis not responsible for all policies, the CoV must lead and influence all policies to come together in an integrated and strong way.
2
Three principal strategies to reduce GHGsfrom Transportation
• Transform vehicles
• Transform fuels
• Transform land use
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Vehicles
Fuels
Land use
4
Hierarchy of fuels
Renewable Alternative Fuels for Road Transport
Fuel Road passenger Road freight
range short med long short med long
Renewable electricity
Renewable biofuel (liquid)
Renewable hydrogen
Renewable natural gas (RCNG/RLNG)
5
Renewable Alternative Fuels for British Columbia
6
• Each fuel has pros and cons• Energy policy depends on region
Renewable Electricity
Renewable Hydrogen
Renewable Biofuel(liquid)
Renewable natural gas (RCNG/RLNG)
Engine Type EV EV ICE ICE
Fuel Cost Very good Good Good Good
Supply Availability Very good Poor Poor Poor
Emissions None None Some Some
Cruising Range Poor Good Very good Good
Dedicated Infrastructure
Good Poor Poor Poor
Renewable Transport Fuels
Transportation Fuel Renewable source & inputs Non-renewable source & inputs
Electricity Hydro, Wind, Solar, RenewableBiomethane
Coal, Natural gas, Nuclear?, Some Biomethane. Fossil fuel production.
Hydrogen Hydro, Wind, Solar, Renewable Biomethane
Coal, Natural gas, Nuclear?, some Biogas. Fossil fuel production.
Biodiesel Waste fats or renewable oils + Renewable methanol
Fossil fuel inputs: e.g. most methanol is from natural gas
Bioethanol Renewable inputs: fertilizer, pesticides, production, processing
Fossil fuel inputs: e.g. fertilizer, pesticides, production, processing
Biomethane Waste to energy (anaerobic digesters, landfills)
Fossil fuel inputs: e.g. fertilizer, pesticides, production, processing
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• There are different definitions of what is a renewable fuel• A complete renewable definition considers the primary energy source and all
inputs in the production chain• Worldwide renewable fuel standard policies are evolving and becoming more
sustainable, i.e. in the EU:• http://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/renewable-energy/biofuels/sustainability-
criteria
Mobility as a Service Concept
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50 Big Ideas for Electric Mobility
http://cleanenergyministerial.org/Portals/2/pdfs/EVI_2014_EV-City-Casebook.pdf 9
Toyota Vision
10EV=electric vehicles, PHV = plug-in-hybrid vehicles, HV=hybrid vehicles, FCHV=fuel cell hybrid vehicles
German Vision Energiewende
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Toyota Vision
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Potential Policy Support
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Only some of these are within CoV jurisdiction
Choose pathways through analysis and buy-in to develop policies - Support goal, supportable by key stakeholders, economic, feasible
Appendix
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Vehicles
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EU McKinsey Light Duty Powertrain Study Scenarios, Biofuels ruled out because of sustainability concerns
16
17
EU McKinsey Light Duty Powertrain Study Scenarios, Biofuels ruled out because of sustainability concerns
System Cost: EV vs FCV
18
Hybrid Vehicle Launch Trend
19California AB8 Report 2014
EU Total Cost of Ownership Vehicle Costs
McKinsey EU Powertrain Study 20
EU Powertrain Scenario 2030
McKinsey EU Powertrain Study 21
EU BEV Economic Gap (Vehicle + Infrastructure)
22McKinsey EU Powertrain Study
EU FCEV Economic Gap (Vehicle + Infrastucture)
23McKinsey EU Powertrain Study
24Fuel and technology alternatives for commercial vehicles, VTT, 2014
Alternatives for long haul trucksTruck engines exist for RNG/liquid biofuels
25Fuel and technology alternatives for commercial vehicles, VTT, 2014
Alternatives for single unit trucksTruck engines exist for RNG/liquid biofuels
Fuel and technology alternatives for commercial vehicles, VTT, 2014 26
No fuss alternative for diesel fuels: paraffinic diesel
Still makes road CO2, NOx etc.Expensive fuel
Energy, Fuels, Infrastructure
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US Transport Energy Consumption
EIA.gov 28
US Transport Energy Consumption
29
• Consumer EV’s not included as they are on residential, commercial and industrial meters
• Ethanol is primarily in 10% blends• Biodiesel for buses and trucking
EIA.gov
US Renewable Share
30
Slowing growth?
EIA.gov
31http://www.biofuelstp.eu/road-biofuels.html
Transport fuels
• Transport is ~ 25% of total energy consumption• Road is ~ 75% of total transport• Trucks and buses are ~ 20% within road transport
Automotive Pathways
32
EU Projections, Current Trends and Policies
State of the Art on Alternative Fuels Transport Systems in the EU, DG Move, 201533
Alternative EU Scenarios
34State of the Art on Alternative Fuels Transport Systems in the EU, DG Move, 2015
California Marc Jacobson 2050 Scenario
Marc Jacobson et al, Stanford, UC Davis, etc. 35
No biofuels
Transportation by 100% EV, battery or fuel cell, cryo-H2 aircraft
SysEne: No biofuels is far too optimistic for heavy duty, marine, aircraft
Liquid Biofuel Pathways
Staffan Lundgren/Volvo 2014 36
An energy carrier that can bring high Diesel internal combustion engine energy efficiency, independent of the fossil or renewable origin (source to wheel)
Biofuels
• Pros• The Only practical non-fossil fuels for most aircraft, most heavy industry, and
most marine
• Cons• Acceptability issues
• Competition with food• Habitat erosion• Water usage• Soil erosion• Many biofuels have significant fossil fuel inputs to attain yield and economics (fertilizer,
pesticides, production, processing• Energy Return on Investment is low, and sometimes negative
• Some regions do not consider conventional biofuels to be renewable
• Advanced biofuels are in development targeting some of these challenges but it is uncertain when they can be available
37
38
Liquid fuels
All Pathways
Fuel and Technology Alternatives for Buses, VTT, 2012 39
Energy Density Comparison
40
advantage
California Light Duty 2050 Scenario
41California ACC Report 2014
SysEne: This scenario only makes sense if biofuels are ruled out because of sustainability concerns
EU Infrastructure Investment Required to 2050
EU McKinsey Report 42
BEV, PHEV FCEV
Not the same y axis scale
Smart Grid Required for EV Charging
43
Smart Grid
44
Hydrogen Station Implementation in Japan
45
EU H2 Costs
McKinsey EU Powertrain Study 2012 46
400 km range = 4-5 kg H2
Full tank by electrolysis is 20-25 Euros
$28 to $25 CADTaxes, profit not included
H2 Filling Station Costs California
ETVC Report 2014 47
Onsite Electrolysis is the most expensive but not overly so
World Wide Hydrogen 2015
48
Policies
49
50“California’s Transportation GHG Policy Model” Dan Sperling, UC Davis 2012
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Strong Demand Policy
Strong Supply andDemand Policy
California ZEV targets
Weak Demand Policy
Supply-focused policies may be essential for PEV sales
51
PEV newMarketshare (BC)
Wolinetz and Axsen (forthcoming)
EV Market Share and Incentives
IEA Global EV Outlook 2015 52
• Higher EV Market share supported by significant incentives• Canada has a low EV Market share at 0.3% in 2014
EU EV Demand Policies
EV Report AS & McKinsey 53
California GHG Emissions Standards
54California ACC Report 2014
California Criteria Emissions Benefits
55California ACC Report 2014
California Scenario
56California ACC Report 2014
Northeast States Policies
http://neesc.org/publications/2015_roadmaps/ 57
8-State ZEV Action Plan
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• Support ZEV commercialization through consistent statewide building codes and standards for
installing EVSE, streamlined metering options for homes equipped with EVSE, opportunities to
reduce vehicle operating costs, increased electric system efficiency through time-of-use electricity
rates and net metering for electric vehicles, and integrating ZEVs with renewable energy initiatives;
• Establish ZEV purchase targets for governmental agency fleets, explore opportunities for
coordinated vehicle and fueling station equipment procurement, work to provide public access to
government fleet fueling stations, and include commitments to use ZEVs in state contracts with
auto dealers and car rental companies where appropriate
• Evaluate the need for, and effectiveness of, monetary incentives to reduce the upfront purchase
price of ZEVs as well as non-monetary incentives, such as high occupancy vehicle lane access,
reduced tolls, and preferential parking, and pursue these incentives as appropriate;
• Work to develop uniform standards to promote ZEV consumer acceptance and awareness, industry
compliance, and economies of scale, including adopting universal signage, common methods of
payment and interoperability of EVSE networks, and reciprocity among states for non-monetary
ZEV incentives;
• Cooperate with vehicle manufacturers, electricity and hydrogen providers, the fueling infrastructure
industry, corporate fleet owners, financial institutions, and others to encourage ZEV market growth;
• Share research and develop a coordinated education and outreach campaign to highlight the
benefits of ZEVs, including collaboration with related national and regional initiatives; and
• Assess and develop potential deployment strategies and infrastructure requirements for the
commercialization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
ZEV = zero emission vehicle, EVSE = electric vehicle supply equipment (charging station)