China’s Renewable EnergyChina’s Renewable EnergyChina’s Renewable Energy China’s Renewable Energy ––Current Situation and FutureCurrent Situation and FutureCurrent Situation and Future Current Situation and Future PerspectivePerspective
GAO Hu
Energy Research Institute (ERI) of National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)
China National Renewable Energy Centre (CNREC)
2015 J l B iji2015 July Beijing
1China National Renewable Energy Centre2015/07/02
内容 Content
Policy FrameworkPolicy Framework
Current profileCurrent profile
Plan targetPlan target
Future perspectiveFuture perspective
2015/07/02 2China National Renewable Energy Centre
Supporting Policy for R bl E P iRenewable Energy Power in ChinaChina
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 3
Feed-in tariff for RE Power
Wind Wind– Onshore :0.49-0.61 CNY/kWh– offshore: 0.75, 0.85CNY/kWh
Bi Bio-power– 0.75 CNY/kWh for agricultural
and forestry residual0 65CNY/kWh for MSW
0.020.02元元CNYkWhCNYkWh0.020.02 CNY/kWhCNY/kWh
0.020.02 CNY//kWhCNY//kWh
– 0.65CNY/kWh for MSW power
– 0.25 CNY/kWh subsidy for biogas power
0.020.02 CNY/kWhCNY/kWh
0.75CNY/kWh
biogas power0.85CNY/kWh
风电的区域固定电价Wind power Feed-in Tariff (declined since year 2015)p ( y )
4
Currency rate: 1 US$=6.2Chinese RMB
China National Renewable Energy Centre2015/07/02
Feed-in tariff for utility-scale PVy
Large –scale Solar PV– Regional FIT 0.9, 0.95,1.0 CNY/kWh
Distributed Solar PV– 0.42 CNR/kWh subsidy
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 5
Currency rate: 1 US$=6.2Chinese RMB
Feed-in tariff for coal-fired power (Yuan/kWh) by province
0.5元/k h
0.350.40.45
元/kWh(RMB/kWh)
0.20.250.30.35
0.050.10.150.2
00.05
北京
天津
北北网
北南网
山西
山东
古西部
辽宁
吉林
黑龙江
古东部
上海
江苏
浙江
安徽
福建
河南
湖北
湖南
江西
四川
重庆
陕西
甘肃
宁夏
青海
广东
云南
贵州
广西
海南
Currency rate: 1 US$=6 2Chinese RMB
河北
河北
内蒙古 黑
内蒙古
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 6
Currency rate: 1 US$=6.2Chinese RMB
Feed-in tariff for Renewable Energy PowergyWind: 2 cents decreased from 2009PV: 10 cents decreased from 2011(selected regions)
1.2
1.4(RMB/kWh)
1.2
1.4(RMB/kWh)
0 4735
0.8
1
0 4735
0.8
1
0.4735
0 2
0.4
0.6 0.4735
0 2
0.4
0.6
0.27110
0.20.2711
0
0.2
2015/07/02 7China National Renewable Energy Centre
Renewable Energy Surchargegy g
0.015
0 012
0.014
0.016 (元/kWh) 0.015
0 012
0.014
0.016 (元/kWh)(RMB/kWh)
0.0080 008
0.01
0.012
0.0080 008
0.01
0.012
0.0040.004
0.006
0.008
0.0040.004
0.006
0.008
0.0010.002
0
0.002 0.0010.002
0
0.002
2006 2007 2009 2011 2013(年)2006 2007 2009 2011 2013(年)
8China National Renewable Energy Centre2015/07/02
Mechanism to Fund RE Power in China
RE power surcharge
R bl0 015元/kWh Renewable Energy Fund
0.015元/kWh(2%~4% of residential level)
Earmarked fund
9China National Renewable Energy Centre2015/07/02
Profile of Renewable Energy P i ChiPower in China
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 10
Resource potentialp
Hydro: technical potential 660GW, economically viable 400GW
Wind: onshore technically viable 2580GW, offshore 510GW Solar: 2/3 of the land with sunshine hour over 2200. Best in
th ld f th t Chithe world for the western China. Biomass: Agro- and forestry residue resource over 400-500
million tce
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 11
million tce
Newly Added Power Capacity
12000
y p yTotal power capacity 1358GW, hydro 301GW, thermal power 916GW, wind 96GW, solar Total power capacity 1358GW, hydro 301GW, thermal power 916GW, wind 96GW, solar 28GW (By end of year 2014)28GW (By end of year 2014)
10000
12000 单位:万千瓦10MW
897 1457 1600 1285 1406
2072 8000
光伏发电
风 电WindSolar PV
4000
6000 风 电
核 电
火 电
水 电
Wind
NuclearCoal
Hydro
2000
水 电Hydro
0
2009年 2010年 2011年 2012年 2013年 2014年
12China National Renewable Energy Centre2015/07/02
Hydropowery pAchieve the target by year 2015Achieve the target by year 2015
120004 00 (亿千瓦时)(万千瓦) 120004 00 (亿千瓦时)(万千瓦)10MW
2 80
3.50
86418963
11000
10000
12000
3 00
3.50
4.00
发电装机(亿kW)发电量(亿kWh)
(亿千瓦时)(万千瓦)
2 80
3.50
86418963
11000
10000
12000
3 00
3.50
4.00
发电装机(亿kW)发电量(亿kWh)
(亿千瓦时)(万千瓦)10MWCapacity (100GW)Electricity (0.1TWh)
1.97 1.99 2.12
2.49 2.58 2.80
2.60
56555717
67596520
6000
8000
2 00
2.50
3.00
1.97 1.99 2.12
2.49 2.58 2.80
2.60
56555717
67596520
6000
8000
2 00
2.50
3.00
1.17 1.29 1.45
1.72 1.97
396441674867
5655
4000
6000
1.50
2.00
1.17 1.29 1.45
1.72 1.97
396441674867
5655
4000
6000
1.50
2.00
20000.50
1.00 2000
0.50
1.00
00.00
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2020
00.00
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2020
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 13
Wind PowerAdded by 15~20GW annually, achieve the target by year 2015Added by 15~20GW annually, achieve the target by year 2015
200001401
15631400
1600
1800
20000
25000
总装机容量(万千瓦)
(万千瓦) (亿千瓦时)10MW
C i (10MW)
0.1TWh
1004
1401
1000
1200
1400
15000
20000总装机容量(万千瓦)
发电量(亿千瓦时)
Capacity (10MW)
Electricity (0.1TWh)
60837548
958110000
494
732600
80010000
126 207 420 839 17603100
46236083
131276
494
0
200
400
0
5000
00
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2020
142015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre
Challenges – accommodation of wind
黑龙江
g
东 北
吉林
黑龙江
Wind bases
西 北
新疆
甘肃 河北
蒙西蒙东
宁夏
辽宁
Wind bases
西 北
西 藏
甘肃
江苏
河北
“三华”受端电网
山西 山东
Load centre
南 方
电网
南 方
China National Renewable Energy Centre 152015/07/02
Wind curtailment in Q1 2015
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 16
PV’s pricep60 RMB/kW
50
40
50
30
35
2530
40
元/瓦
19
139
17.5
10 9 8.510
20
4.5 4.2 4
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PV module price decreased by 87% from 2008 to 2014PV module price decreased by 87% from 2008 to 2014
组件价格 系统价格System priceModule price
2015/07/02 17China National Renewable Energy Centre
Solar PVIncreased 10.6GW in year 2014, 2.05GW of which coming from distributed Increased 10.6GW in year 2014, 2.05GW of which coming from distributed solar PVsolar PV
10MW
Resource: National Energy Administration, China
Utility scale PV Distributed PV system
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 18
Solar PV – utility-scale PV stationsy
PV stations basically located in western and northern ChinaPV stations basically located in western and northern China
10MW
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 19
Solar PV – distributed systemy
Distributed PV basically located in the eastern partDistributed PV basically located in the eastern part
8
10
3
46
9
8
10
3
46
9万千瓦江苏 85浙江 70
12
10MW
12
4
8
1
4
5
8 10
212
4
8
1
4
5
8 10
2
浙江 0广东 50山东 38湖南 29河北 27
23456
3
4
5
67
9
5 7
33
4
5
67
9
5 7
3
河北 27江西 26安徽 25内蒙古 18上海 16
678910 上海 1610
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 20
Biomass energygy
Total 25 million tceTotal 25 million tce Power capacity – 8.5GW
Agro-residue 3.4GW Municipal solid waste
2.1GW Bagasse 1.7GW Biogas 0.3GW
Gas – 1.5 billion cubic metersB i tt / ll t 6 illi Briquette / pellet – 6 million tons
Bio-ethanol: 2.1 million tons Bio-diesel: 500,000 tons
2015/07/02 21China National Renewable Energy Centre
Ratio of the non-fossil fuel power in the ppower system ( Year 2014)
19 2%
25.0%
19 2%
25.0%
19.2%
15.0%
20.0% 19.2%
15.0%
20.0%
2 8%5 0%
10.0%
2 8%5 0%
10.0%
2.3% 2.8%0.4% 0.7%
0.0%
5.0% 2.3% 2.8%0.4% 0.7%
0.0%
5.0%
Biomass核电 水电 风电 光伏发电 生物质能核电 水电 风电 光伏发电 生物质能Nuclear Hydropower Wind PV
Biomass power
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 22
Ratio of the non-fossil fuel in the energy gysystem (Year 2014)
8.1%
7 0%8.0%9.0% 8.1%
7 0%8.0%9.0%
4 0%5.0%6.0%7.0%
4 0%5.0%6.0%7.0%
0.9% 1.2%0.18% 0.33%1.0%
2.0%3.0%4.0%
0.9% 1.2%0.18% 0.33%1.0%
2.0%3.0%4.0%
0.18%0.0%
核电 水电 风电 光伏发电 生物质能
0.18%0.0%
核电 水电 风电 光伏发电 生物质能Nuclear Hydropower Wind PVBiomass power
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 23
Future Perspective
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 24
Non-fossil fuel target by year 2030g y y
Announced after the APEC meeting in Nov, 2014:
By year 2030, peak carbon emission for China, and non-fossil fuel mix in the
final energy consumption will be increased to 20%.final energy consumption will be increased to 20%.
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 25
Hydropower targetsy p g
420GW420GW (inc. 70GW pumped hydro)
290GW (i 30GW d h d )
213GW
(inc. 30GW pumped hydro)
2010 2015 2020
26China National Renewable Energy Centre2015/07/02
Wind targets
200GW
g
>200GW
100GW
31GW31GW
2010 2015 2020
27China National Renewable Energy Centre2015/07/02
Solar power targets
(100GW)(100GW)
p g
50GW50GW
20GW
(Increased to 35GW)(Increased to 35GW)
3GW3GW
2010 2015 2020
28China National Renewable Energy Centre2015/07/02
Biomass Targets for year 2015g yTotal 50 million Tce for biomass energy supplygy pp y
Breakdown
PowerPower GasGas Liquid Liquid fuelfuel PelletPellet
–– 13GW 13GW for powerfor power –– Ethanol Ethanol 4 mil tons4 mil tons–– Household Household 50 mil 50 mil bi 6000 lbi 6000 l –– 1010 mil tonsmil tonspp
–– Rich grain Rich grain productionproduction
–– Biodiesel 1 mil Biodiesel 1 mil tonstons
biogas; 6000 large biogas; 6000 large biogas projectbiogas project
–– Total 22 billion mTotal 22 billion m33
10 10 mil tonsmil tons
29China National Renewable Energy Centre2015/07/02
Future energy contribution – baseline?gy
120000
140000 (万吨标煤)
120000
140000 (万吨标煤)(10,000 tce)
80000
100000 生物柴油
生物乙醇
生物质能发电80000
100000 生物柴油
生物乙醇
生物质能发电 Bio-power
Bio-ethanol
Bio-diesel
60000
80000
光热发电
光伏发电
风电
60000
80000
光热发电
光伏发电
风电 wind
PV
CSP
20000
40000 风电
水电
核电20000
40000 风电
水电
核电 Nuclear
hydro
wind
0
2010 2015 2020 2030
0
2010 2015 2020 2030
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 30
Future energy contribution – high penetration?
非化石能源发电非化石能源发电占比91%
80%
90%
100%
14000
16000 Twh
3X62%
60%
70%
10000
12000
27亿
34亿
22% 40%
50%
6000
800027亿
10%
20%
30%
2000
4000
2010 2050 0%0
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2010 2050
2015/07/02 31China National Renewable Energy Centre
Summaryy
China establish policy framework to support RE development
Not competitive with fossil-fuel now Ambitious future targets for wind and PV Ambitious future targets for wind and PV Depend on more institutional reform and
technological breakthrough
2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 32
Thanks for attention!
33China National Renewable Energy Centre2015/07/02