Eric Rahn1, Peter Läderach2, Armando Martinez2, Narioski Castro2 September 18th
1International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia2International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Managua, Nicaragua
Cashew: the winner cash crop in W-Africa under a changing climate
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• Presentation of CIAT• Objectives• Methodology
– Data– Crop suitability modeling
• Results• Opportunities/constraints• Questions
Agenda
International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
• CIAT: Part of Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research
• Mission: To reduce hunger and poverty, and improve human health in the tropics through research aimed at increasing the eco-efficiency of agriculture.
What we do: Spatial Analysis, climate change, Impact analysis models, ecosystem services, supply chain analysis, …
DAPA - Decision and Policy analysis
CIAT/DAPA - Lead Center of CCAFS
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1. Present future climate scenarios for the main cashew growing regions of Ghana and Ivory Coast and their impact on the relative suitability for these regions to grow cashew
2. Outline key opportunities to turn the comparative advantage into a sustainable business opportunity for the entire supply chain
Objectives
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Methodology
Pic by Neil Palmer (CIAT)
Data
Future climate prediction:• 19 Global Circulation Models recommended by the IPCC• Scenario: SRES-A2a (“business as usual”)• Downscaling
Current climate:• www.WorldClim.org database• 19 bioclimatic variables derived from monthly temp. and rainfall values
Downscaling
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Suitability prediction
Currentclimate
Futureclimate
Relation
Projection
Evidence data oftodays cashew areas
Prediction of future cashew
presence
19 bioclimatic variables
MAXENT is a general-purpose machine learning method for making predictions from incomplete information. It is generally considered to be the most accurate model (Elith et al. 2006).
Temperature
Pre
cip
itat
ion
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Crop suitability modelingSuitability to future climate (2050) – Current suitability = Change in suitability
Find probability distribution of
maximum entropy, subject to a set of
constrains
Presence points
• Samples (GPS points)• Land cover and soil maps• Current Production Areas
MaxEnt (crop niche model)Ranges: Temperature and precipitation
WorldClim Climate Data http://worldclim.orgMore than 47,000 stations worldwide
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1010
Results
Pic by Neil Palmer (CIAT)
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current20302050
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Drivers of suitability change
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Opportunities
Pic by Neil Palmer (CIAT)
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• In the near future current cashew growing areas will become more suitable
• Cashew could be important to maintain/improve thousands of livelihoods– Cultivation on areas unsuitable for other crops– Can substantially contribute to food security, when
intercropped with other food crops (maize, millet, yam, etc.)– Increase of yield and quality by implementing new technologies
(e.g. germplasm)– Several uses of the fruit (juice, fuel, etc.)– Environmental services (soil protection, reforestation, +
feedback on climate, cc mitigation)
• Increasing demand of cashew can be covered
Key opportunities
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• Productivity in West-Africa is still very low– Little access to information, money, improved
varieties, old trees, crop & pest management, lack of labor availability in smallholders, lack of farmer organization, etc.
• Increased risk of bushfires• Soils and other land features affect
suitability as well• Impact of climate change on pests and
diseases?
Constraints
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• What are key constrains/opportunities of extending cashew plantations in WA?
• What do you consider key elements of a sustainable cashew supply chain?
• What are the major trends in the cashew sector with respect to where and how the crop will be cultivated?
Questions
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• According to CIAT’s results the suitable area for production will increase, how does that information affect decision making of relevant stakeholders? – Research investment– Farmers outreach, technical assistance– Investment in processing facilities
• What are important criteria that need to be taken into account when new areas for cashew plantations are searched for?– Climate– Land-use cover (e.g. forest) – competing crops?
More questions