Cap and Trade, Climate, and Your House

Patrick J. MichaelsDistinguished Senior Fellow

School of Public PolicyGeorge Mason University

Senior FellowCato Institute

Waxman-Markey

•3% below 2005 emissions in 2012•16% below 2005 by 2020•42% below 2005 by 2030•83% below 2005 by 2050

WAXMAN-MARKEY HOUSING STANDARDS

• 30% more efficient than 2005 in 2012

• 50% in 2016

• Additional 5% every three years

DO THE MATH

• By 2049 (38.4 years from today) --

EVERY HOME IS A GENERATOR.

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1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Year

Pe

r C

ap

ita

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

(m

etr

ic t

on

s)

2005

US per capita CO2 emissions

POST-2005 VALUES BASED UPON WAXMAN-MARKEYand U.S. Census Bureau projections

U.S. Annual CO2 Emissions

5200

5300

5400

5500

5600

5700

5800

5900

6000

6100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year

U.S

. An

nu

al C

O2

Em

iss

ion

s (

mm

tCO

2)

Waxman-Markey (U.S.-only)

Waxman-Markey (Kyoto Countries)"Business-as-Usual"

0.000

0.500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

2050

Glo

bal

Tem

per

atu

re C

han

ge

(C)

Impacts of Waxman-Markey on Projected Global TemperaturesYear 2050

1.584°C 1.540°C 1.500°C

Waxman-Markey (U.S.-only)

Waxman-Markey (Kyoto Countries)

"Business-as-Usual"

0.000

0.500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

2100

Glo

bal

Tem

per

atu

re C

han

ge

(C)

Impacts of Waxman-Markey on Projected Global TemperaturesYear 2100

2.959°C 2.847°C 2.738°C

COST ESTIMATES

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FROM CONGRESS TO EPA

EPA Endangerment Finding (December 7, 2009):

“Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely* due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG [greenhouse gas] concentrations.”

* EPA defines “very likely” as a 90 to 95% probability

“Observed” Global Temperature History, 1950-2009

Total RiseObs. = 0.702°C

(sources: HadCRUT3)

“Observed” Global Temperature History, 1950-2009“Adjusted” for SST Errors

Total RiseObs. = 0.702°CAdj. = 0.552°C

Adjusted Temperature Rise is 79% of “Observed”(sources: HadCRUT3; Thompson et al., 2008)

“Observed” Global Temperature History, 1950-2009“Adjusted” for SST + Non-climatic Influences

Total RiseObs. = 0.702°CAdj. = 0.468°C

Adjusted Temperature Rise is 67% of “Observed”(sources: HadCRUT3; Thompson et al., 2008; McKitrick and Michaels, 2007)

“Observed” Global Temperature History, 1950-2009“Adjusted” for SST + NonClim + Stratos H2O

Total RiseObs. = 0.702°CAdj. = 0.408°C

Adjusted Temperature Rise is 58% of “Observed”

(sources: HadCRUT3; Thompson et al., 2008; McKitrick and Michaels, 2007; Solomon et al., 2010)

“Observed” Global Temperature History, 1950-2009“Adjusted” for SST + NonClim + Stratos H2O + Black Carbon

Total RiseObs. = 0.702°CAdj. = 0.306°C

Adjusted Temperature Rise is 44% of “Observed”(sources: HadCRUT3; Thompson et al., 2008; McKitrick and Michaels, 2007; Solomon et al., 2010; Ramanathan and Carmichael, 2009)

“Observed” Global Temperature History, 1950-2009“Adjusted” for SST + NonClim + Stratos H2O + BC + Sun

Total RiseObs. = 0.702°CAdj. = 0.204°C

Adjusted Temperature Rise is 29% of “Observed”(sources: HadCRUT3; Thompson et al., 2008; McKitrick and Michaels, 2007; Solomon et al., 2010; Ramanathan and Carmichael, 2009; Scafetta, 2009)

“Many residents of low-lying Pacific Island nations have already had to evacuate their homes because of rising seas.”

HIGH TIDE IN FUNAFUTI, TUVALUPOLYNESIA

Steric Sea Level Trends, 1955-1996

Region where Tuvalu and many other Pacific Island nations are located. Sea levels have declined there.

Source: Cabanes et al., Science, 2001

IPCC AR4 Global Average Sea Level Rise Projections

(2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999)

URGENCY?

IPCC’s 21 Models for Climate Change—Realistic CO2 Changes

Projected (A1B) and Observed Temperatures

Observed Trend

Model Projections

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration(Observed and Projected)

ATMOSPHERIC METHANE

SOURCES

Bovine Flatulence

Rice Paddy Agriculture

Coal Mining

Leaky Pipes?

Atmospheric Methane (Duglokenky 09)IPCC 2001 (same as 2007) Overlay

Methane, 1983-2008 (Dlugokenky 09)

Projected (A1B) and Observed Temperatures

Observed Trend

Model Projections

Global and NH Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)(January 1979 - March 2010)

Global ACE

Northern Hemisphere ACE