CAERPHILLY STANDING CONFERENCE
EXPLORING FUTURE GENERATIONS &
FUTURE TRENDS
Dr. Alan Netherwood
22ND MARCH 2016
Honorary Research Fellow School of Planning & Geography
Cardiff University
What we mean by future
generations.
The difficulty of focusing on
their needs.
What the Act is asking us
to do differently.
How we might account for
future generations’ needs
Exercise:
How might future trends
impact on Caerphilly
County Borough?
How the approach of the
Council and the PSB might
to change?
How might the Council and
partners develop a culture
which encourages long
term approaches?
What did we learn through Future Generations
work in the WLGA – 2008-15?
Tools and exercises
• Generation 2050 Report: Decision Making
• Future CBC Scenarios (Economy, Energy,
Climate, Food )
• Building 2050 scenarios webinar
• Swansea 2040 Ward scenarios
• Newport 2050 Ward scenarios
Learning:
• Communities can engage on the long term
• Scenarios are a good way to shift timeframes
• Scenarios work for both ‘big issues’ and
households
• Municipalities see value in working to mid
century
• Data can help but is not the most important thing
http://www.wlga.gov.uk/well-being-of-future-generations-act-
early-adopter-resources-and-materials/
Asking questions
on behalf of future
generations is
really important
Representing the needs of future generations is difficult
Presentism - citizens discount the
future so democratic process
follows suit –its characteristics:
• neglects long term risks, citizens
not yet born
• maximises the interests of
immediate descendants
• temporal limits on politics, policy
and finance
• discounts, rather than accounts
for needs of future generations
Professor Dennis
F. Thompson
Harvard Kennedy
School
Governance for future generations:
On behalf of future generations can current
decision makers:
o express perspectives for future citizens?
o act as a surrogate for future citizens?
o identify neglected issues and priorities?
o protect capacity for decision making?
o determine whether policies/actions provide
greater utility or less utility?
“Institutions built for
yesterday”
Do unto future
generations as you
would have past
generations do unto
you” (John Rawls)
What do we mean by ‘future generations’?
Future Generation Education (16)
Employment (54 years)
Retirement (70)
Passes Away (80)
8 year old (2008) 2024 2026 -2078 2078 2088
4 year old (2012) 2028 2028 - 2082 2082 2092
2 year old (2014) 2030 2030 - 2084 2084 2094
Born in 2016 2032 2032 - 2086 2086 2096
Born in 2026 2042 2042 - 2096 2096 2106
Born in 2036 2052 2052 - 2106 2106 2116
Born in 2046 2062 2062 - 2116 2116 2126
Jim Poole’s model – span of emotional attachment
Generational Foresight : A Carmarthenshire ‘citizen’
Born 2006
Leaves School 2024
Graduates 2027
First Job 2028
Next generation born 2033 - 2040
Career 2028 -2068
Puts me in retirement
home
2046
Mortgage paid off 2068
Retires 2068
Daughter ‘Ebony’ puts
her in retirement home
2090
Born 2033
Leaves School 2051
Graduates 2051
First Job 2052
Next generation born 2060 - 2067
Career 2052 - 2092
Puts Evie in retirement
home
2090
Mortgage paid off 2092
Retires 2092
Daughter ‘Emma’ puts
her in retirement home
2113
Evie Netherwood (currently aged 9)
Ebony Netherwood (tba 2033)
What do we mean by ‘current’
generations’?
Current Generation Employment up to 70
Retirement (70)
Supported care (up to 80)
16 year old (2000) 54 years to go 2070 up to 2080
26 year old (1990) 44 years to go 2060 up to 2070
36 year old (1980) 34 years to go 2050 up to 2060
46 year old (1970) 24 years to go 2040 up to 2050
56 year old (1960) 14 years to go 2030 up to 2040
66 year old (1950) 4 years to go 2020 up to 2030
76 year old (1940) retired 2010 Up to 2020
Why wouldn’t we plan across generations (Generation is 25 years)
and consider their needs in well-being assessments?
Where do we ‘do’ long term well – and
where do we need to improve?
Good long term stuff for future
generations?
Where might we need to improve our
legacy for future generations?
o Early years intervention
o Health
o Land use planning
o Waste
o Housing
o Economy
o Poverty
o Education
o Unsustainable resource use
• water
• energy
• minerals
o Infrastructure we rely on
• roads
• energy
• flooding
o Natural systems we rely on
• water
• land and soils
• biodiversity
This might be a good
first question to ask
during the assessment
and well-being plan
development.
What if the Act
works and we
successfully look
after the needs of
future generations
as we navigate our
way through the next
34 years to 2040
What might this
mean for Caerphilly
County Borough?
Major trends from Foresighting work with WLGA: Climate Adaptation Resource Scarcity Energy Security Food Security Water Security Ageing Population Poorer Health Austerity – less public money Employment
We would have adapted well to climate change predicted by 2040 and be planning for a changing future….
Renewables technology would have limited fuel poverty and increased sufficiency
Our energy supplies would be secure despite resource conflict abroad Our electricity grid would be well adapted for microgeneration
Our transport infrastructure is still usable even though we had to let some roads ‘go’ Rural communities receive grants to maintain vital ‘B’ roads
Early intervention in the 2020s has meant high literacy and numeracy High levels of skills are translated into small scale businesses across Caerphilly CBC Which all have good broadband!
Public sector still serves the community and provides many jobs………
……and Caerphilly’s ‘green economy’ is booming using its rich natural assets ……. sustainable approaches to agriculture, horticulture, energy production and tourism
Farmers now store water and supply a water grid for business use and irrigation
The County Borough’s landscape is being managed
to capture flood water, grow food and fuel and
maintain pollinators
Council investment portfolios have been used in public/private partnerships and to make our infrastructure last
to build affordable homes
Our systems of government, public funding, taxation and investment all work with the future in mind Looking after the needs of the next generation….. They are held accountable.
Incrementalism?
…….or shift of culture in
public services?
Response to the
Future Generations
Act…..
What is the Act asking us to do differently
than normal with regard to Future
Generations?
General
• take account of the long term
• help to prevent problems
occurring by understanding their
root causes and effects
• needs of the present are met
without compromising the ability
of future generations to meet their
own needs
• future liveability
• use the Future Trends Report*
and other evidence on long term
trends
• Look 10 -25 years ahead (in
some contexts longer)
• be reviewed by Future
Generations Commissioner
Overview & Scrutiny and WAO
For the assessment
*Public bodies ‘must’ refer to the
future trends report when preparing
the well-being assessment
An accurate analysis of the state of
well-being in each community and the
areas as a whole
Capture the strengths and assets of
their people and communities (in
localities)
Community level analysis
Include predictions of likely future
trends for an area
Long term needs of an area as well as
the short term
Situational analysis = broad picture?
Response analysis = so what?
Future generations and future trends.
What could good look like?
Current
State
Future
Scenarios
Future
Risks
Future
Opportunities
Future
Communities
Future
Citizens
Well-being
objectives
We know
what the key
strategic
issues are for
current
communities
and the area
We have
explored
how future
trends
might
impact on
this ‘state’
We
understand
what the
likely
future risks
are in our
area
We understand
what the likely
future
opportunities
are within our
area
We understand
how these risks
and
opportunities
might impact on
future
generations in
particular
localities.
We can
use this
data to
think
about
impacts
on
particular
groups
of
citizens.
We can use
this analysis
to inform
our well-
being
objectives
for the area:
The wellbeing assessment considers state, place and citizen
from the perspective of future generations
Future Public Bodies
We can use this to think about
the role of public service
providers in the future. This
could to help us to reshape our
services.
A model approach to future generations
Conclusions?
The effectiveness of the Act in Caerphilly County Borough will be determined by how it is interpreted by the bodies it covers Strong opportunity v compliance I hope across Wales it means our public bodies adopt: • Alternative models of delivery • Innovation instead of risk
aversion • A mid century focus • Governance for future
generations • A positive way of accounting
for instead of discounting their needs
Task 1- Future Trends and
Caerphilly County Borough
How might long term trends
manifest themselves in the
Borough?
How might trends interact
with each other?
Which are the long term
trends which will need
most attention to maintain
well being in
communities?
Record the key 5 long term
trends on a flipchart.
20 minutes
Trends which you might like to discuss:*
Energy security
Food security
Water security
Multigenerational poverty
Infrastructural resilience
Employment patterns
Community cohesion
Health trends
Climate Adaptation
Resource Scarcity
Ageing Population
Austerity – less public money
Rural economies
Town economies
Housing need
Task 2- What might the Council
and PSB need to do differently?
How might strategy alter?
Will priorities alter?
Will this alter the way bodies work together?
Might you need different evidence?
How might decision making be affected?
Record up to 5 ways that you think current
practices might need to adapt to account
for future trends and future generations
20 minutes
Things you might want to think
about:
• Well-being Assessment
• Well Being Plan
• Objectives and Goals
• Governance
• Data needs
• Representation
• Involvement
• Reporting
• Scrutiny
• Finance
• Investment
• Corporate Planning
• Business Planning
• Risk Management
Task 3- Developing a
long term culture
How might public bodies
develop a culture which
encourages long term
approaches – despite short
term pressures?
Record up to 5 ways this
could be encouraged in
organisations within the
partnership.
(Don’t just say training –
what sort of training – doing
what and why ?!)
20 minutes
Things you might want to think
about:
• Reporting
• Assessments
• Business processes
• Performance Management
• Staff appraisal
• Scenario Planning
• Scrutiny
• Community engagement
• Officier/member working
• Evidence
• Staff engagement
• Communications
CAERPHILLY STANDING CONFERENCE
EXPLORING FUTURE GENERATIONS &
FUTURE TRENDS - PLENARY
Your thinking on
FUTURE TRENDS ?
Your thinking on
ADAPTING WAYS OF WORKING?
Your thinking on
LONG TERM CULTURE?