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Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100
and the
Baseline Study on Climate Change
Special Lecture, International Conference on Climate Change related to Water and Environment, 10 April 2015
Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga
in cooperation with Dewan Abdul Quadir and Fulco Ludwig and BDP team
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Overview of the presentation
1. Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100
2. Climate Change Baseline Study
1. Current Climate in Bangladesh
2. Climate Change
» Temperature
» Precipitation
» Sea level rise
» Tropical cyclones
3. Climate change scenarios and climate change in future
4. Demonstration: Interactive climate maps
5. Links to other baseline studies
6. Conclusions
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II. What is a Delta Plan
Delta Plan
What is a Delta Plan?
Why would Bangladesh need one?
An indicative plan for the delta (=whole country)
To improve safe living and sound economic development
Longer term time frame (50 to 100 years)
Integrated and holistic plan
Based on a vision about the future
Need to cope with uncertainty and complexity – using vision and scenario development
It is a different approach to planning!
Not: knowing it all first, and then doing something
But: Parallel start between policy, research, implementation
Requires: Change in mindset (not business as usual)
Unusual business!
Working with a longer term vision (fore-casting – back-casting)
2010 2100
1 2 3 4 5 6
Instead of:
Create a longer term vision for e.g. 100 years (fore-casting, 1), use back casting to ‘translate’ it back to the present (2); and subsequently integrate it in regular (short and medium term) planning (3)
2010 2100 1
2
3
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II. What is a Delta Plan
Importance of a Delta Plan for Bangladesh
Need of a Long Term Delta Vision and Program
Bangladesh:
Shows consistent average economic growth rate of 6%
Is on its way to become middle-income country by 2021
However,
Climate change is threatening these significant achievements,
as it is related to delta issues as flooding and droughts, sea level rise, salt-
water intrusion, access to fresh water, which influence water safety, food
production and economic growth
Challenges:
A long term integrated approach to water safety, food security and economic
growth in relation to future water and land management
An Institutional and governance setting to make such long term holistic Delta
Plan 2100 approach possible and implementable
Priorities for investments for the future to be set today
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IV. Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100
Partners to GoB/GoN: BanDuDeltAS
Plus sub contractor: Climate Adaptation Services foundation
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IV. Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100
Interactive Strategic Planning process
Governance, Content, and Stakeholders will come together, via learning cycles
Concepts:
- Planning as Learning
- Adapative Management
- Strategy Process sense-
making - sensegiving
8
Overall Process
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IV. Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100
Overall expected outputs
Inception Report
Background Reports on the delta themes creating a common
Knowledge Base by sharing those studies and data with stakeholders
involved
Input for the 7th Five Year Plan
An Institutional Delta Framework which contributes to BDP 2100
formulation and realization of new projects in line with the BDP 2100
A Delta Plan Document with Vision, Scenarios, Strategies/Measures
and Program
Implementation Strategy and Guideline for the coming 5 to10 years with
geographical and sectoral priorities for BDP 2100 implementation,
including 2 - 3 projects developed parallel to the BDP 2100 formulation
June 2014
December 2014
March 2015
2015
2016
2016
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IV. Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100
Clustering of Themes and Baseline Studies
Water Resources
I. Morphological dynamics of Bangladesh Delta
II. Water resources
III. Coastal Polder issues
Water Supply and Sanitation
I. Public heath, water supply and sanitation
Disaster Risk Reduction
I. Climate change issues
II. Disaster management
Spatial Planning
I. Land resources
II. Urbanization and settlement
Food Security
I. Agriculture and food security
II. Fisheries and livestock
Environmental Management
I. Ecological Settings
II. Forest and biodiversity
III. Environmental pollution
Economics and Finance
I. Growth of Population and Management in the context of resources setting
II. Socio-economic and demographic condition
III. Sustainable Transportation and Infrastructures
Governance
I. Information and creation of knowledge management Institution
II. Institutional framework/arrangement
III. Regional cooperation
Eight Clusters with 19 themes
to be studied
The Baseline Studies include:
- Quick scans
- Start up Document with
Study Plans
- Study of Baseline Conditions
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Climate Change in BDP2100
Baseline Study Climate Change
Knowledge (What do we know?) Provide an overview on CC & impacts in
BGD
Identify knowledge gaps
Data (Which data do we need?) Make an inventory of key information
and Data
Current Climate of Bangladesh Analyze BMD data of 60 years for 35
stations and other reliable data on TC from JTWC and pear reviewed
publications.
CC Science and scenarios for BGD Current Climate Change
What are possible futures in respect of Development?
Develop initial climate change scenarios for BGD
Visualize: Develop key maps for stakeholder interaction
Develop Linkage with Other studies
Objectives:
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I. Climate Change in BDP2100
Baseline Study Climate Change
Process related to the tasks:
Involving cc experts and policy makers in increasingly wider circles, collecting information, creating consensus
- Meeting with team (Dhaka, Rotterdam)
- Meeting with experts (16 Sep)
- Meeting with wider circle (Gobeshona platform)
Scenario team starting up
- Scenario team start (first note, October)
- Scenario meeting (4 Nov, Utrecht) also linking to socio-economic team
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Baseline Study on Climate
Change in Bangladesh Delta Delta Plan 2100 Project
1. Current Climate
• Temperature
• Rainfall
• Cyclone pattern
Method: Analysis BMD data, consultation, literature review
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I. Climate Change in BDP2100
Baseline Study Climate Change
Introduction to Bangladesh Climate
• Vulnerable geographical position of Bangladesh: downstream confluence of mighty rivers, highly variable climate.
• Even more vulnerable due to climate change
• Dynamic changes
• Focus of the study: science of climate change,
• The results will feed to the other thematic studies
• Bangladesh Meteorological Network: 35 stations, data 1948-present
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I. Climate Change in BDP2100
Baseline Study Climate Change
Seasons in Bangladesh
General Overview of Bangladesh Climate
Maximum Temperature: peak in April (33.5 0C) and secondary peak in September (31.6 0C).
Minimum Temperature:
The lowest minimum temperature is observed in January (12.5 0C).
Bangladesh annual 2425 mm; standard deviation of around 286 mm.
Monsoon: 1750 mm(72 % of the annual).
The pre-monsoon 17 % of the annual rainfall.
The post-monsoon season occupies 9 % of the annual rainfall.
The winter is relatively dry and receives about 1.5% of the annual rainfall.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Tem
pera
ture
( o C
)
0
1
2
3
Sta
ndar
d de
viat
ion
(o C
)
Mean TmaxMean TminSD TmaxSD Tmin
0
100
200
300
400
500
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Rainfall(mm)
S.D.
CV%
Ser.
No.
Coastal Region Number of
tropical cyclones
hit the coast
% of the total
number of
tropical cyclones
1 Sundarban coast (Satkhira, Khulna and
Bagerhat)
Central coast (Borguna, Potuakhali,
Pirozpur, Barisal, Bhola
17 27.9
2 Central coast (Borguna, Potuakhali,
Pirozpur, Barisal, Bhola
10 16.4
3 Meghna estuary, east central coast
(Noakhali and Chittagong)
16 26.2
4 Southeastern coast (Southern
Chittagong, Cox’s Bazar and Teknaf
18 29.5
Total 61 100
Coast wise distribution of Tropical Cyclones in Bangladesh (1961-20130
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I. Climate Change in BDP2100
Baseline Study Climate Change
Cyclone tracks of some cyclones that hit
Bangladesh and adjacent territories during
the period 1991-2013
[prepared by BDP CC baseline team]
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Baseline Study Climate Change
Delta Plan 2100 Formulation Project
2. Current Climate Change
• Minimum and Maximum Temperature
• Rainfall
• Relative Sea Level Rise based on published data
• Tropical Cyclones using data of JTWC
• Trends of SST and response of SST on Tropical Cyclone Intensity (ongoing, not yet complete)
Method: Analysis BDM data, consultation, literature review
Current Temperature Trends
Country Avg Temperature (min, max and mean)
y = 0.0103x + 4.9261 R² = 0.3582
24.5
25
25.5
26
26.5
19
48
19
53
19
58
19
63
19
68
19
73
19
78
19
83
19
88
19
93
19
98
20
03
20
08
Tem
per
atu
re (°C
)
Year
Annual Trend of Mean Temperature
Season
Trend (oC/year)and R2 values
Tmin p Tmax p Tmea
n p
Annual 0.014 <0.001 0.008 <0.001 0.010 <0.001
Winter 0.021 <0.001 0.000 n.s. 0.013 <0.002
Pre-
monsoon 0.014 <0.002 -0.004 n.s. -0.001 n.s.
Monsoon 0.008 <0.001 0.015 <0.001 0.011 <0.001
Post-
monsoon 0.016 <0.001 0.024 0.528 0.016 <0.001
-0.01
-0.005
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
Annual Winter Pre-mon Monsoon Post-mon
0C
/ye
ar
Tmin
Tmax
Annual Trend of Mean Temperature (0C/decade) (Shahid,2010)
.
CLIMATE RESEARCH, Vol. 42: 185–193, 2010
Rainfall
Season
Trend
value
(mm/year)
% of
Season
al
rainfall
in 50
year
R²
value Probability p
Winter 0.181 25 0.016 n.s.
Pre-
monsoon 1.719 20.5 0.055 <0.05
Monsoon 3.082 8.5 0.067 <0.05
Post-
monsoon
0.279 3.4 0.002 n.s.
Annual 5.207 10.7 0.102 <0.02
y = 5.207x - 7933.R² = 0.102
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
2700
2900
3100
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Rain
fall
(mm
)
Year
Annual rainfall trends (mm/year) (Shahid,2010)
Pre-monsoon
Monsoon
Stations Latitude Longitude Sea Level Rise
(mm/year)
IPCC (AR5)
observed
1981-2000
Western Sundarban
Coast (Hazra, 2002)
- - 3.24
2.0 mm/year Hiron Point 21°48’ N 89°28’E 4
Char Changa 22°08’ N 91°06’E 6
Cox’s Bazar 21°26’ N 91°59’E 7.8
Observed Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR) during the period 1978-1998
Based on tidal station data
• According to IPCC- AR5 (2014) observed SLR = 2.0 mm/year (1981-2000)
• The differential nature of SLR at 4 locations and with that in IPCC AR4
report indicate that the local factors are strong in Bay of Bengal coastal zone
in Bangladesh and adjacent areas. These factors are subsidence and
sedimentation, former being more dominant.
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I. Climate Change in BDP2100
Baseline Study Climate Change
The study of CEGIS (2011) has
shown that the sea level rise is
• 5.5 mm/year at Hiron Point
• 7.5 mm/year at Mohesh Khali
• 5.1 mm/year at Cox’s Bazar
• 7.0 mm/ year at Sandwip.
The differential nature of the
observed sea level rise is also
related with subsidence of the
delta.
0
1
2
3
4
5
1978-1987 1988-1997 1998-2007
Vmax=>218
Changing Frequency of Tropical Cyclones of Bay of Bengal
• The long term variation of tropical cyclones have shown that the Cyclonic storms (Vmax= 62-88 km/hour) shows that the tropical cyclone frequency is decreasing •At the same time the severe cyclonic storms (Vmax>88 km/ hour) has increased using data of 1877-2004
a)
b)
c)
A. K. Singhvi, D. A. Quadir and others, 2010: INSTRUMENTAL, TERRESTRIAL AND MARINE RECORDS OF THE CLIMATE OF SOUTH ASIA DURING THE HOLOCENE: PRESENT STATUS, UNRESOLVED PROBLEMS AND SOCIETAL ASPECTS. In: 'Global Environment Changes in South Asia: A Regional Perspective', A.P. Mitra & C. Sharma (Eds.), Springer Publishing Co.
Variability and Trends of week and strong TC
y = 0.0162x + 0.4789 R² = 0.1280
0
1
2
1978 1983 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
An
nu
al f
req
ue
ncy
5 year moving average
Vmax=62-118 km/hour
Vmax>152 km/hour
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Baseline Study on Climate Change
Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 Formulation Project
3. Climate Change in the future
(climate change scenarios)
• Future temperature • Future rainfall • Runoff scenarios • Future Sea Level Rise (IPCC) • Future Tropical cyclone frequency and intensity • Meteorological indicator analysis
Method: IPCC Climate model results for south Asia using 5 GCMS : • MPI-ESM-LR • IPSL-CM5A-LR • HADGEM2-ES • ECEARTH • CNRM-CM5
Interpolated to 0.5x0.5 deg lat/lon
A few maps showing the preliminary results of climate scenarios
Average change in the rainfall (mm) at the end of the century (2070-2099 compared to 1970-1999) for rcp4.5 and rcp8.5.HIGHER QUALITY FIGURES WILL BE MADE Average change in the rainfall (mm) at the end of the century (2070-2099 compared to 1970-1999) for rcp4.5 and rcp8.5.HIGHER QUALITY FIGURES WILL BE MADE
Average change in the rainfall (mm) at the end of the century (2070-2099 compared to 1970-1999) for rcp4.5 and 8.5
Changes in the average length of the largest period of consecutive dry days at the end of the century (2070-2099 compared to 1970-1999) for respectively the rcp45 and the rcp85 scenario. A cdd period is counted when more than 5 consecutive dry days occur.
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I. Climate Change in BDP2100
Baseline Study Climate Change
Future climate change: seasons
Next step: assess seasonal
characteristics of future climate
change
Parameters
- Temperature: Tmin, Tmax, cold spells, hot spells
- Rainfall: Average, seasonal rainfall, number of consecutive wet and dry days, extreme rainfall events (intensity)
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Baseline Study on Climate
Change in Bangladesh Delta Delta Plan 2100 Project
4. Interactive climate map http://www.climateadaptationservices.com/nl/interactieve-
klimaatatlas-bangladesh
Visualising the data – for discussion,
verification, planning
F:\BDP Atlas_Bangladesh_november2014.pdf
5. Link to other baseline studies
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Water x x x x x x x
WatSan x x x x x x x
Drr&CC x x x x x x x x x
Spat.pl x x x x x x
Food sec x x x x x x x x x x x x
Envt mgt x x x x x x x x
Econ&Fin
Govern
Meteorological indicators 1. Average maximum temperature (Tmax) 2. Average minimum temperature (Tmin) 3. Difference Tmax-Tmin 4. Heatwaves (>5 days above normal) 5. Number of days Tmax above treshold 6. Average precipitation
7. Duration and length of dry spells 8. Duration and length of wet spells 9. Average rain intensity 10. Average highest one day prec.amount 11. Average highest 5 day prec.amount 12. Number of wet days
Clusters indicated (vertical column) and link to meteorological indicators
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Climate Change in BDP2100
Baseline Study Climate Change
6. Conclusion
- Business as usual: Conclusion that more
research is needed
- Unusual: Scenarios/Focus on uncertainties
& Improving data availability for users
- Need for data collection at field level
(improve spatial data)
- Enhance the link from global models to the
field (enhance temporal and spatial data)
- Downscaling
- Translation of model results into useful
knowledge for planners (e.g. decadal
change)
- Provide factual data so that climate change
projects will be based on factual climate
change data
Ph
oto
c r
ed
it: C
are
l d
e G
roo
t