Application of Extended Range Forecast for Climate Risk Management
on crops in Coastal and Western Agro-ecosystems of Tamil Nadu
Dr. V. GeethalakshmiProfessor
Agro Climate Research CentreTamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore
Objectives
• To assess past climate anomalies, pattern and their impacts on agriculture with reference to extreme weather events.
• To establish a system to provide climate information on time to selected locations for climate risk management in agriculture.
• To train the target groups on the application of extended range weather forecast on farm decision making to reduce the climatic risks
• Feed back analysis for refinement and improvement of the forecast and application of forecast information on decision making
• Development of decision support system
Location Map of Study area
Normal Rainfall & Temperature of Study region
Western Zone
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tem
per
atu
re i
n °
C
Maximum Temperature Minimum Temperature
Cauvery Delta Zone
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tem
pera
ture
in
°C
Maximum Temperature Minimum Temperature
NWZ
NEZ
CDZ
WZ
HRZ
HZSZ
Extreme weather events – 2007 & 2008
Rf : Oct 23rd, 2007: 107.5 mm Drought : SWM, 2008: -32 % of LPA
Excess rainfallOctober 07 : 178 % of LPA (358 mm against 200 mm)December 07 : 231 % LPA (371 mm against 160 mm)March 08, : 220 % of LPA (160 mm against 50 mm)
DroughtApril 08: - 83% of LPA (8.4 mm against 50 mm)July 08: - 96 % of LPA (4.4 against 109 mm)
Choice of CropsUpland Irrigated cotton
- Coimbatore
Lowland Rice - Nagapattinam
Irrigated Groundnut – Nagapattinam
Rainfed maize - Coimbatore
Crop Season Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Rice short duration
medium duration
Maize Purattasi pattam
cotton Winter
groundnut
Thai pattam
Adi pattam
Cropping calendar
Sowing/Establishment Vegetative Flowering Maturity Harvest
Progress made so far
• Village Selected:– Cotton : Avinashi, Coimbatore– Maize : Pollachi, Coimbatore– Rice : P.R.Puram, Nagapattinam– Groundnut : Vettaikaran iruppu, Nagapattinam
• Farmers selection : in progress.• Collection of weather data & Crop Yield data
(1970 – 2000)• Assessing the past climate anomalies, pattern and
their impacts on agriculture : In Progress
Past Experience
• ENSO based SCF and Farm Decision making
• Economic Impact Analysis Project
• Experimental Agromet Advisory Services
• Weather based forewarning of Downy Mildew – ICAR funded project
Weather Summary (Observed and Predicted)– Banana (2005)
Stage Operation Weather Prediction Impact
Establishment(March)
Fertilizer application
Rainfall 45mm forecasted2.0 mm received
Low nutrient use efficiency
Vegetative(April – May)
Intercultural operation
Rainfall 60 mm forecasted77.2 mm received
Helped in planning intercultural operations
Flowering(July-August)
Propping Wind speed
July : 10.2 KMPH -10.6 KMPHAug : 10.1 KMPH
- 9.3 KMPH
Correct wind speed forecast helped in giving propping recommendation and saved the crops from lodging.
Weather Summary (Observed and Predicted)– Tomato 2005
Stage Operation Weather Prediction Impact
Entire crop growth period(June - October)
Irrigation Rainfall August and October well predicted. June, July, September – Under predicted
Helped in saving irrigation water.Interfered with irrigation planning
Vegetative(July-August)
Plant protection
Rainfall Occurrence predicted well
Helped in plant protection decision making
Temperature Increase in temperature well predicted.
Correct temperature forecasts helped in controlling the sucking pest.
Wind speed Correctly predicted
Helped in scheduling the spraying operation
Maturity (September-October)
Drainage Rainfall Heavy rainfall well predicted
Helped in reducing the yield loss.
Harvesting Rainfall Heavy rainfall well predicted
Harvest of even half ripped fruits were recommended to avoid fruit damage
Economic Impact of AAS on manures and fertilizers
AAS farmers used lesser FYM in 2004 and 2005 (4.5 %)But more in 2006 (10 %)
AAS- used less fertilizer 2004 – 13.6 % - Rs. 4662005 – 15 % - Rs. 77
AAS- used more fertilizer2006 – 9 % - Rs. 247
No difference in FYM usage
AAS- used more fertilizer
2004 – 26.5 % - Rs. 1673
2005 – 29.1 % - Rs. 2106
2006 – 15.2 % - Rs. 1210
AAS farmers used lesser FYM (7.5 %)
AAS- used less fertilizer 2004 – 11.7 % - Rs. 2562005 – 14 % - Rs. 72
AAS- used more fertilizer2006 – 4.3 % - Rs. 68
Tomato & Cotton - Well Distributed rainfall during flowering and fruiting in 2006
Economic Impact of AAS on Pesticide usage
AAS farmers used lesser plant protection chemical
Saving2004 – Rs. 762005 – Rs. 922006 – Rs. 71
AAS- spent more on plant protection chemicals
2004 – Rs. 44
2006 – Rs. 145
AAS farmers used lesser plant protection chemicals
Saving2004 – Rs. 942005 – Rs. 1682006 – Rs. 297
Weather based pest and disease management
Furadon sucker treatment
Economic Impact of AAS on Labour usage
Saving of 2 Men labour on irrigation
One labour more for fertilizer application
Four labour more for intercultural operation
Saving of 2 men labours on irrigation
Saving of 1 labour on fertilizer application
Saving of 5 – 8 labours on intercultural operations
More labour for harvest
Weather based operations and labour management
Saving of 1- 2 men labours on irrigation
Saving of 1 men labour on fertilizer application
Saving of 2 men & 2 women labours on pesticide application
More labour for harvest
Irrigation water saving - 2004
Crop AAS Non-AAS No. of irrigations saved
Quantity of irrigation water saved
Saving in terms of money
Banana 7 – 8 irrigationsSaving of one irrigation on 03.08.2004Saving of one irrigation on 14.09.2004Saving of one irrigation on 24.09. 2004.
9 – 10 irrigations were given
2-3 irrigation saved.
450 m3 Rs. 7440(6750 + 240 + 450)
Tomato 7 – 8 irrigationsSaving of one irrigation on 03.08.2004Saving of one irrigation on 14.09.2004Saving of one irrigation on 24.09. 2004.
9 – 10 irrigations were given
2-3 irrigation saved.
450 m3 Rs. 7440(6750 + 240 + 450)
Cotton 8 irrigationsSaving of one irrigation on 03.08.2004Saving of one irrigation on 14.09.2004Saving of one irrigation on 24.09. 2004.
10 irrigations were given
2 irrigation saved.
300 m3 Rs. 4960(Water cost :4500 + Labour : 160 + Fuel: 300)
1. Marginal saving on seed material
2. No difference in FYM usage
3. AAS farmers used more fertilizers (15.2 % to 29.7%)
4. AAS farmers spent more on plant protection chemicals
5. Saving of 2 Men labour on irrigation
6. One labour more for fertilizer application
7. Four labour more for intercultural operation
Input Usage by farmers - Banana
1. AAS farmers used more seed materials
2. AAS farmers used lesser FYM (7.5 %)
3. AAS- used less fertilizer : 2004 – 11.7 % - Rs. 256
2005 – 14 % - Rs. 72
AAS- used more fertilizer : 2006 – 4.3 % - Rs. 68
4. AAS farmers used lesser plant protection chemical
5. Saving of 2 men labours on irrigation
Saving of 1 labour on fertilizer application
Saving of 5 – 8 labours on intercultural operations
More labour for harvest
Input Usage by farmers - Tomato
Input Usage by farmers - Cotton
1. Marginal saving on seed material
2. AAS farmers used lesser FYM (7.5 %)
AAS- used less fertilizer : 2004 – 11.7 % - Rs. 256 2005 – 14 % - Rs. 72
AAS- used more fertilizer : 2006 – 4.3 % - Rs. 68
3. AAS farmers used lesser plant protection chemicals
4. Saving of 1- 2 men labours on irrigation
Saving of 1 men labour on fertilizer application
Saving of 2 men & 2 women labours on pesticide application.
More labour for harvest
Use of AAS bulletin on increase in yield (Qts/ac) - Banana
Farmercategory
2004 2005
AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff
Marginal* 194 * * 155 *
Small 217 18631
(16.9%)175 152
23.2(15.3%)
Medium 213 20112.1
(6.0%)172 161
11.7(7.3%)
Large 204 2013.1
(1.5%)165 161
4.3(2.7%)
Overall 212 19516.9
(8.7%)172 158
14.2(9.0%)
Use of AAS bulletin on increase in yield (Qts/ac) - Tomato
Farmercategory
2004 2005 2006
AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff
Marginal 123 1184.4
(1.2%)112 100
12(12%)
123 10617
(16%)
Small 127 10125.5
(25.7%)112 99
13(13%)
124
1195
(4%)
Medium 136 11818
(15.2%)
122
10122
(22%)
136
11323
(20.3%)
Large 111 9417
(21.9%)104 81
23(29%)
112 1102
(2%)
Overall 129 11019
(17.2%)111 99
12(12%)
123 11213
(10.4%)
Use of AAS bulletin on increase in yield (Qts/ac) - Cotton
Farmercategory
2004 2005
AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff
Marginal 6.9 6.40.5
(7.8%)8.3 7.9
0.4(5.2%)
Small 7.5 6.21.3
(20.9%)8.2 7.6
0.6(8.5%)
Medium 6.6 6.00.6
(10%)8.5 7.8
0.7(8.7%)
Large * 7.0 * * 7.8 *
Overall 7.2 6.21.0
(16.1%)8.3 7.7
0.6(7.8%)
Gross Return - Banana
Farmercategory
2004 2005
AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff
Marginal * 126175 * * 72835 *
Small 140816 11879022026
(18.5%)82090 76956
5134(6.7%)
Medium 123455 11312010335(9.1%)
85024 817423282
(4.0%)
Large 118495 10289215602
(15.2%)80187 74865
5322(7.1%)
Overall 127549 11422713322
(11.6%)82434 76000
5834(7.6%)
Gross Return - Tomato
Farmercategory
2004 2005 2006
AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff
Marginal 79845 84320-4475
(-5.3%)74160 67100
7060(10.5%)
85562 6196523597(%)
Small 85105 6913815967
(23.1%)75084 62544
12540(20%)
76907 5796218944(%)
Medium 90717 816269091
(11.1%)73909 70159
3750(5.3%)
81043 7039910644(%)
Large 66800 5640010400
(18.4%)65625 58629
6996(11.9%)
54083 83170-29086
(%)
Overall 85781 7398211799
(15.9%)74214 68078
6136(9.0%)
78610 69280 (%)
Gross Return - Cotton
Farmercategory
2004 2005
AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff
Marginal 14776 172212445
(-14.1%)15990 15107
883(8.9%)
Small 16146 16417-271
(-1.6%)16010 14212
1798(13%)
Medium 14526 15735-1209
(-7.6%)16287 14639
1648(11.3%)
Large * 18900 * * 12467 *
Overall 15543 16352-809
(-4.9%)16028 14359
1669(11.6%)
Cost of Cultivation - Banana
Farmer
category
2004 2005
AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff
Marginal * 12311 * * 29704 *
Small 15979 15196783(%)
32410 31728682
(2.1%)
Medium 16100 14760
1339(%)
33884 305153369
(9.9%)
Large 17846 124805005(%)
33410 32476933
(2.8%)
Overall 16641 13686
6468(%)
33361 311312230
(6.7%)
Cost of Cultivation - Tomato
Farmercategory
2004 2005 2006
AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff
Marginal 12852 14346-1495(-10.4)
16028 17219-1191
(-6.9%)19400 20520
-1120(-5.4%)
Small 12985 13899-915
(-6.5%)14901 16428
-1526(%)
18204 19053-849
(-4.4%)
Medium 14542 134071135
(8.4%)15336 16587
-1251(-7.5%)
18357 172121145
10.9-%)
Large 13577 115552022
(17.4%)14924 15851
-927(5.8%)
17650 159101740
(10.9%)
Overall 13472 13331142
(1.1%)15238 16508
-1270(-7.7)
18402 18173229
(1.3%)
Cost of Cultivation - Cotton
Farmercategory
2004 2005
AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff
Marginal 10415 12762-2347
(-18.3%)8742 8843
-102(-11%)
Small 10786 12476-1690
(-13.5%)8478 9166
-688(-7.5%)
Medium 10359 11785-1426
(-12.1%)9190 9319
-129(-1.3%)
Large * 12234 * * 9667 *
Overall 10624 12275-1651
(-13.5%)8629 9202
-573(-15%)
Net Return - Banana
Farmercategory
2004 2005
AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff
Marginal * 113864 * * 43131 *
Small 124867 10359421243
(20.5%)49680 45228
4452(9.8%)
Medium 107355 983598996
(9.1%)51140 51228
-88(3.5%)
Large 101009 9041310597
(11.7%)46777 42389
4388(10.4%)
Overall 111212 1043586854
(6.6%)49199 47861
3705(8.1%)
Net Return - Tomato
Farmercategory
2004 2005 2006
AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff
Marginal 66993 699747622
(-4.2%)58132 49881
8251(16.5%)
66162 4144524718(%)
Small 72121 5523916882
(30.5%)60182 47646
12536(26.3%)
58702 41091217611(%)
Medium 76175 682207955
(11.6%)58573 53572
5001(9.3%)
62686 531879499(%)
Large 53223 448458378
(18.7%)50701 42778
7923(18.5%)
36433 4672608251
(16.5%)
Overall 72309 6065111658
(19.2%)58975 51569
7406(14.4%)
60216 510199196(%)
Net Return - Cotton
Farmercategory
2004 2005
AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff
Marginal 4362 4460-98
(-2.9%)7026 6597
429(6.5%)
Small 5360 39401420(36%)
7315 6529786
(12%)
Medium 4168 3950218
(5.5%)5524 5158
365(7.0%)
Large * 6666 * * 6100 *
Overall 4919 4077842
(20.6%)7059 6102
957(15.6%)
Banana (More investment – More return)
Additional cost
(Rs./ac)
Yield increase (q/ac)
Additional income
(Rs./ac)
Monitory benefit
(Rs./ac)
1699 16.9 10140 8441
Cotton (More investment – More return)
Farmers Category
Added cost
(Rs./ac)
Yield increase
(q/ac)
Additional income
(Rs./ac)
Monitory benefit
(Rs./ac)
Marginal 281 0.5 1100 819
Small 171 1.3 2860 2689
Saving cost
(Rs./ac)
Yield Increase (q/ac)
Increased income
(Rs./ac)
Monitory gain
(Rs./ac)
386 0.7 1540 1926
Tomato (Less investment – More return)
Farmers Category
Reduced cost
(Rs./ac)
Yield increase
(q/ac)
Additional income
(Rs./ac)
Monitory benefit
(Rs./ac)
Marginal 393 14.6 9636 10029
Small 40 21.9 14454 14494
Medium 415 9.9 6534 6949
Average 283 15.5 10208 10491
Cotton -Medium farmers (Less investment – More return)
Tomato -large farmers (More investment – Less return)
Additional cost
(Rs./ac)
Yield reduction
(q/ac)
Reduced income
(Rs./ac)
Monitory loss
(Rs./ac)
1739 6.0 3600 5339
Conclusion
Tomato – More sensitive to weather
Weather forecast helped in monitory gain up to Rs. 15000 /ac