Advisory Council on Small Business and Agriculture
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
10th
Floor, Paul Volcker Boardroom
Tuesday, November 20, 2018
AGENDA
10:30am
10:40am-11:00am
11:00am-11:20am
11:20am-11:40am
11:40am-12:00pm
12:00pm
12:15pm
12:15pm-1:55pm
Welcome
Claire Kramer Mills, Assistant Vice President
The National Economy, Richard Peach, Senior Vice President
Regional Update, Jason Bram, Officer
NYC Community Credit, Kausar Hamdani, Senior Vice President and
Claire Kramer Mills, Assistant Vice President
Facilitated Discussion, Claire Kramer Mills, Assistant Vice President
Adjourn to NWC Room-10F
Lunch
Round Table Discussion with John Williams, President
Introductory Remarks and Welcome from President Williams
Group Discussion
Your experiences provide insight into current economic conditions.
In considering each question, please reflect on the experiences of
your firm, firms of similar size, and firms in your industry. Please
provide a rationale for each answer.
Sales
Have sales volumes increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the
second half of 2018?
What are your expectations for 2019?
Investment
Has investment (e.g. plant, equipment, technology) increased,
decreased, or stayed the same in the second half of 2018?
What are your expectations for 2019?
Employment
Has employment increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the
second half of 2018?
Have you faced any recent labor shortages that have limited the
ability to meet demand? Please explain.
What are your employment expectations in 2019?
Advisory Council on Small Business and Agriculture
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
10th
Floor, Paul Volcker Boardroom
Tuesday, November 20, 2018
Prices Have input prices increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the
second half of 2018?
What are your expectations for 2019?
Have prices of products/services sold increased, decreased, or stayed
the same in the second half of 2018?
Do you expect prices of products/services sold to increase in 2019?
Financing Conditions
Over the past two quarters, please describe the financing conditions
for firms of your size and in your industry.
How have the terms and conditions for obtaining financing changed
(tightened, eased, not changed)?
Outlook
What is the most significant business opportunity you see in 2019?
What is the chief growth barrier or concern facing your firm in
2019?
Concluding Remarks from President Williams
2:00 pm Adjourn
Advisory Council on Small Business and Agriculture
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Tuesday, November 20, 2018
ATTENDEE LIST
Council Members
Adenah Bayoh
Founder
Adenah Bayoh & Companies
Jassi Chadha
President & CEO
Axtria, Inc.
Kevin Ellis
CEO
Cayuga Milk Ingredients
Sarah LaFleur
Founder & CEO
MM.LaFleur
Ranjini Poddar
Founder & CEO
Artech Information Systems, LLC
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
John Williams
Jack Gutt
Kausar Hamdani
Richard Peach
Matthew Higgins
Anand Marri
Claire Kramer Mills
Rosanne Notaro
Jason Bram
Jessica Battisto
President
EVP, Communications & Outreach
SVP, Communications & Outreach
SVP, Research & Statistics
VP, Research & Statistics
VP, Outreach & Education
AVP, Outreach & Education
AVP, Legal
Officer, Research & Statistics
Sr. Analyst, Outreach & Education
US Macro OverviewNovember 20, 2018
Overview• Growth in the US has firmed since 2016 with real GDP up 3%
over the four‐quarters ending in 2018Q3. • Fiscal stimulus is contributing to this pick up in growth.
• Several indicators suggest that the economy is at or near full employment, with clearer evidence that the rate of increase of wages/compensation has moved higher.
• Underlying inflation has moved up to the FOMC’s objective of 2%. But at this time we do not see evidence of building inflation pressures.
1
-5-4-3-2-10123456
-5-4-3-2-10123456
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Growth of Real GDPFour Quarter Percent Change Four Quarter Percent Change
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.2
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Industrial Production: Manufacturing
Industrial Production: Total and Manufacturing% Change, Year to Year
Source: Federal Reserve Board3
Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Industrial Production: Total
% Change, Year to Year
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Real PCE and the Personal Saving Rate12 Month % Change %
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Real PersonalConsumption Expenditures
Personal Saving Rate
4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
450 500 550 600 650 7000
2
4
6
8
10
12
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Board
Households’ Net Worth as a Percent of Disposable Income
2012Q1 to present
Note: Fitted line is from 1983Q1 to 2005Q4.
Personal Saving Rate and Household Net WorthPersonal Saving Rate (Percent) Personal Saving Rate (Percent)
1983Q1 to 2005Q4
5
2018Q2 (691.87, 6.8)
1983Q1-2018Q2
2006Q1 to 2011Q4
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1980 1990 2000 2010
Household Liabilities over Disposable IncomeRatio
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics.
6Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Ratio
Single Family Housing Market
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
020406080
100120140160180200220
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Index Level Months
Source: CoreLogic, National Association of Realtors, via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Single Family House Price Index
(Left Axis)
Months’ Supply
(Right Axis)
7
Housing Starts
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Thousands, 3 MMA Thousands, 3 MMA
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Total Multifamily(Left Axis)
Single Family(Right Axis)
8
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Business Fixed Investment FirmingFour Quarter Percent Change Four Quarter Percent Change
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.9
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
4 Quarter % Change 4 Quarter % Change
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Federal
State and Local
Real Government Consumption and Gross Investment
10
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Average 1962-2007
–2.1%
% of GDP % of GDP
CBO Projection-June 2017
Source: Congressional Budget Office, FRBNY staff calculations
Federal Deficit
Actual
CBO Projection-April 2018
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Projection
Gross Federal Debt as a Percentage of GDPPercent
Source: CBO; Haver. Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Gross Federal
Debt(Left Axis)
Gross Federal Debt Held by
the Public(Right Axis)
Percent
Aug 2018
Aug 2018June 2017
June 2017
12
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Real Net Exports as a % of GDPPercent
Source: BEA; Haver Analytics. Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Percent
13
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Labor Market IndicatorsPercent Percent
Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Unemployment Rate(Left Axis)
Labor Force Participation Rate
(Right Axis)
Employment to Population Ratio
(Right Axis)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statisticsvia Haver Analytics
14
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Annual % change Annual % change
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Average Hourly Earnings
Employment Cost Index:
Private Sector Wages & Salaries
Growth of Average Hourly Earnings and ECI
15
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101
1.5
2
2.5
3
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 16 yr + (SA, %)
Employment Cost Index and the Unemployment Rate% Change, Year to Year % Change, Year to Year
EC
I: W
ages
& S
alar
ies
for P
rivat
e In
dust
ry W
orke
rs (S
A)
Note: Data reported quarterlyfrom Q1-2009 to Q3-2018
16
0.58
0.6
0.62
0.64
0.66
0.68
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Labor Share (Right Axis)
Unemployment Rate and Labor Share of National IncomeSA, %
Source: Bureau of Labor Statisticsvia Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Unemployment Rate (Left Axis)
Labor Share Ratio
17
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
12 Month % Change 12 Month % Change
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Core PCE Deflator
FOMC Objective for Headline PCE Inflation
Measure of Underlying PCE Price Inflation
18
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Core PCE6-Mo % Change, Annualized
Source: BEA; Haver Analytics.19
Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
Core
Goods excl. Food & Energy
Services excl. Energy
6-Mo % Change, Annualized
1
Global Economic Outlook
Small Business and Agricultural Advisory CouncilMatthew Higgins, 20 November 2018
The views expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System
Roadmap
Update on the global economic and industrial cycle
China’s economic slowdown
Italy’s fiscal and economic struggles
2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
China
Percent SAAR
Other EMEs
Advanced Economies
excluding U.S.
Sources: national sources, staff calculations. Q3 growth rates for some foreign economies reflect staff estimates.
Global GDP Growth
0.6
2.7
6.4
3rd quarter
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Percent SAAR
Global GDP Growth and Composite PMI
GDP Growth
Composite PMI
Correlation = 0.83
Sources: national sources, Markit Economics
Oct.
Diffusion Index
3
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
01-17 04-17 07-17 10-17 01-18 04-18 07-18 10-18
Percent positive or negative*
Citigroup Economic Surprise Indexes
Advanced Economies
Emerging Economies
*Weighted by series’ historical FX impact
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2016 2017 2018
Percent, CY/CY
2019
20182017
Sources: Blue Chip Economics, Consensus Economics. Figures are GDP-weighted averages for five AEs (counting the euro area as one economy) and 24 EMEs. The latest vintage surveys are from early to mid October.
2019
2018
2017
EMEs ex. China
Advanced Economies
Evolution of Global Market Growth Forecasts
4
90
100
110
120
130
140
17-01 17-04 17-07 17-10 18-01 18-04 18-07 18-10
Indexes, January 2016 = 100
S&P500FTSE EME equity index
Note: Index values are in dollar terms
U.S. and EME equity performance
47.5
50.0
52.5
55.0
57.5
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Diffusion Index
Source: Markit Economics, JPMorgan.
51.9
Oct.
49.9New Export
Orders
New Orders
Manufacturing New Orders
5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Percent change from year ago
G-3: Core Consumer Price Inflation
Japan
United States
Euro Area
Sources: BEA, Eurostat, BoJ. U.S. inflation measured using the PCE index.
2.0
1.1
0.3
2
4
6
8
10
12
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Percent change from year ago
G-3 Unemployment Rates
Japan
United States
Euro Area
Sources: BLS, CBO, Eurostat, BoJ.
Official NAIRU estimates
6
Credit to the private non-financial sector
Percent of GDP, end of period
2018:Q1 2017:Q4 Change
China 208 110 99
Other EMEs 83 63 20
Advanced Economies 167 171 -4
United States 151 168 -17
Euro Area 162 151 10
Japan 156 161 -5
Sources: Bank for International Settlements, IMF.
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
14 15 16 17 18 19
Percent change from a year earlier
China: Credit growth
Sources: CEIC, PBoC, Moody’s.
Total social financingBank lending
Shadow credit + corporate bonds
7
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Percent change from a year earlier
China: Fixed Asset Investment
Source: Monthly index computed from official year-year year-to-date changes. Real series deflated by linearly interpolated quarterly FAI price series.
Real
Nominal
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
14 15 16 17 18 19
Percent change from a year earlier, 3-mo. basis
China: Merchandise Trade Growth
Source: National Bureau of Statistics.
Exports Imports
8
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Basis points, 5-year maturities
Sources: Reuters.
Italy and Spain: sovereign spread vs. bunds
Spain Italy
90.0
92.5
95.0
97.5
100.0
102.5
105.0
107.5
110.0
112.5
115.0
08 09 10 12 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Indexes, 2008:Q1 = 100
France
Germany
Source: Eurostat
Euro area: major economy real GDP
Spain
Italy
9
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Percent of GDP
Gross Debt
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2018 edition. Figures refer to general government. Figures for end-2018 are projections.
Primary Balance
Italy: Fiscal performancePercent of GDP
Higher GDP growth (+0.5 ppt.)
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Higher interest rate (+1.4% ppt.)
Baseline
Italy: Government gross debt projections
Percent of GDP Percent of GDP
Source: OECD, Economic Survey 2017. Baseline scenario assumes 1% real GDP growth, 1.5% of GDP primary surplus, effective interest rate of 3.2%, and inflation in GDP deflator of 1.5%.
The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.
Regional Economic ConditionsJason Bram, Research Officer
Small Business & Agriculture Advisory Group Meeting – November 20, 2018
Overview
• A quick look at state economies across the U.S.
• An overview of the 2nd District’s economy
• Trends in the finance & tech sectors
• Housing markets
• Update on Puerto Rico’s recovery
2
Private-Sector Job TrendsPercent Change From Previous Peak to October 2018
AL
Down Flat Up to 3% Up 3% to 7% Up More Than 7%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com.
AKFL
HI
PR
AZ AR
CA CO
CTNJDEMD
GA
ID
IL IN
IA
KSKY
LA
ME
VTNHMARIMI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NENV
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
3
Recent Private-Sector Job TrendsYear-Over-Year Percent Change as of October 2018
AL
Down Flat Up to 1.25% Up 1.25% to 2% Up More Than 2%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com.
AKFL
HI
PR
AZ AR
CA CO
CTNJDEMD
GA
ID
IL IN
IA
KSKY
LA
ME
VTNHMARIMI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NENV
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
4
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2007 2008 2009
Shading indicates NBER recession
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
New York
New York City
U.S.
New Jersey
Puerto Rico
Total EmploymentSeasonally Adjusted Index
Oct
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com; data are early benchmarked by FRBNY staff.
Index (Dec2007=100)
5
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2007 2008 2009 2019
Total Employment
Shading indicates NBER recession
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Orange-Rockland-Westchester
New York City
Long Island
United States
Fairfield
Seasonally Adjusted Index
Oct
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com; data are early benchmarked by FRBNY staff.
Index (Dec2007=100)
6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990
Shading indicates NBER recession
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
New York State
New York City
United States
New Jersey
Unemployment RatesSeasonally Adjusted
Oct
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com.
Percent
7
55
60
65
70
1990
Shading indicates NBER recession
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
New York State
New York City
United States New Jersey
Labor Force ParticipationSeasonally Adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com.
Percent
8
Shading indicates timebetween securities
peak and trough
SecuritiesEmployment
(left axis)Total EmploymentMinus Securities
(right axis)
50
110
170
230
290
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20202,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
NYC Securities EmploymentSeasonally Adjusted Levels
Oct
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's Economy.com, and FRBNY calculations.
Thousands Thousands
9
New York City’s New Growth SectorNumber of Jobs in Thousands
10Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW) and Moody’s Economy.com.
0
50
100
150
200
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
SecuritiesEmployment
TechnologyEmployment
Thousands
Shading indicates NBER recession
Jan10 to Mar18 +71,000
+17,000
Technology Employment• Computer manufacturing• Electronic shopping• Software publishing• Data processing, hosting• Internet/web search portals• Internet publishing• Computer systems design• Scientific R&D services
NYC Tech Employment in Select IndustriesNumber of Payroll Jobs, 2007 and 2017
11Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW) and FRBNY Staff Calculations.
3,368
6,189
1,587
5,394
39,706
14,148
4,468
3,889
12,731
7,036
8,920
63,491
16,478
30,189
Computer Mfg
Electronic Shopping
Software Publishers
ISPs; Search Portals; Data Processing
Computer Systems Design & Related
Scientific R&D
Internet Publishing
20172007
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
2007 2008 2009
FRBNY Business Surveys, Current ConditionsDiffusion Index
60
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Shading indicates NBER recession
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Empire StateManufacturing Survey
Business LeadersSurvey
Current Economic Conditions
12
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2007 2008 2009
Shading indicates NBER recession
2010 2011 2012
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Empire StateManufacturing Survey
Business LeadersSurvey
Future Economic ConditionsFRBNY Business Surveys, Conditions Six Months Ahead
Diffusion Index
13
Wage Growth Picking Up in the RegionFRBNY Supplemental Survey
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 14
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Jan2017
Feb2018
Nov2018
Jan2017
Feb2018
Nov2018
Business Leaders Survey Empire State Manufacturing Survey
By about what percentage, on average, has a typical worker’s wage/salary (not including benefits) changed over the past 12 months?
60
70
80
90
100
2006 2007 2008 2009
Shading indicates NBER recession
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
United States
NYC Metro
Fairfield
WestchesterRockland
Home Prices
110
Sep
Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales).
CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally AdjustedIndex (Mar2006=100)
120
15
60
70
80
90
2006 2007 2008 2009
Shading indicates NBER recession
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
USA
Bergen
Hudson
Passaic
EssexUnion
Home Prices
110
Sep
100
Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales).
CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally AdjustedIndex (Mar2006=100)
120
16
60
80
100
120
140
2006 2007 2008 2009
Shading indicates NBER recession
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
United States
Albany
Rochester
Upstate NY
Buffalo
Home PricesCoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted
Index (Mar2006=100)160
Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales).
Sep
17
60
80
100
120
140
160
2006 2007 2008 2009
Shading indicates NBER recession
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
SuffolkUnited States
Kings
Nassau
Queens
Manhattan
Home PricesCoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted
Index (Mar2006=100)180
Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales).
Sep
18
• The economy had already been in decline for over a decade.• Public debt in 2016 was roughly 100% of GNP.• The Island had defaulted on debt payments and could no longer borrow.• U.S. Congress implemented PROMESA in 2016 to restore long-term
economic growth and fiscal balance, creating a fiscal oversight board and a bankruptcy-like process.
19
Puerto Rico’s Economy Before MariaIndexes of Economic Activity, Employment, and Population
80
85
90
95
100
105
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Population
Real GNP
Employment Since 2006:• Population down 12%• Employment down 16%• Real GNP down 15%
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, Planning Board of Puerto Rico, and Moody’s Economy.com.
Index (2006=100)
Puerto Rico’s Economy in 2018• Biggest blackout in U.S. history (in terms of Kw hours lost).• Post-storm out-migration—initially roughly 200,000 residents left.
– An estimated 70-100,000 have returned.
• Economy hit hard in late-2017; since then it’s rebounded.• Mixed signals on magnitude of economic recovery:
– Private-sector (payroll) employment initially fell by 48,000 (7%), but has since rebounded strongly—still down 11,000 (1.8%) from before Maria.
– Government employment down more sharply (about 3½%).– Unemployment rate has tumbled to record low of 8.0%.– Government revenues have been strong in recent months & bond prices
have rebounded. – Construction, manufacturing industries doing fairly well.
• Heavy investment in power (and water) infrastructure needed.– This was true before Maria and now even more so.
20
900
920
940
960
980
1000
1020
1040
1060
1080
1100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018
Thou
sand
s
Percen
t of Lab
or Force
Puerto Rico Employment & Unemployment RateBased on Household Survey
MARIA
Unemployment Rate(LEFT SCALE)
Household‐Survey Employment(RIGHT SCALE)
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
21
22
900
920
940
960
980
1000
1020
1040
1060
1080
1100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018
Thou
sand
s
Percen
t of Lab
or Force
Puerto Rico Employment & Unemployment RateBased on Household Survey
MARIA
Unemployment Rate(LEFT SCALE)
Household‐Survey Employment(RIGHT SCALE)
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018
Thou
sand
s of Job
sPuerto Rico Employment:
Household vs Payroll Survey
Household Survey
Payroll Survey
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
MARIA
23
205
210
215
220
225
230
580
600
620
640
660
680
Jan‐16 Apr‐16 Jul‐16 Oct‐16 Jan‐17 Apr‐17 Jul‐17 Oct‐17 Jan‐18 Apr‐18 Jul‐18 Oct‐18
Puerto Rico EmploymentThousands of Jobs, Seasonally Adjusted
Government (right scale)
Private Sector (left scale)
MARIA
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
24
‐20
‐15
‐10
‐5
0
5
10
Aug‐17 Oct‐17 Dec‐17 Feb‐18 Apr‐18 Jun‐18 Aug‐18 Oct‐18
Puerto Rico Sectoral Job Trends Since MariaThousands of Jobs lost/gained since Aug. 2017 (Before Maria), S.A.
Leisure & HospitalityRetail Trade
Manufacturing
Education & Health
Prof & Business Services
Construction
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY staff calculations.