ACCESS TO FRESH SURFACE WATER
UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE
CASE STUDY: BLACK SEA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT, BULGARIA
Panka Babukova – master student in Management of the Hydro-climatic Resources
Faculty of Geology and Geography, Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski”
CLIMATE CHANGE
AFFECTING QUANTITY
OF WATER RESOURCES
ANNUAL PRECIPITATION CHANGE IN EUROPE 1990 - 2000
Source: http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/annual-precipitation-changes-in-europe-for-the-period-1900-2000
PROJECTED CHANGE IN SUMMER PRECIPITATION TO 2080
Source: http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/projected-change-in-summer-precipitation-in-europe-up-to-2080
BLACK SEA
WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
IN BULGARIA
Location
Source:
Water Management Plan, Black Sea WMD
BLACK SEA WMD IN NUMBERS:
• Area: 20 760 km² (18.7% of Bulgarian territory);• Population: 1 339 999 persons /2007/ (17.5% of Bulgarian population);• GDP: 7 816 345 thousand BGN (15.8% of Bulgarian GDP);• GVA: 6 389 501 thousand BGN (15.8% of Bulgarian GVA).
Source: Water Management Plan, Black Sea WMD
ANTHROPOGENIC IMACT
ON QUANTITY
OF WATER RESOURCES
MAIN WATER CONSUMERSTotal used water (without cooling water) 2003 - 2007: 935 345 thousand m³
Sector Total used water 2003 - 2007
(thousand m³)
Average per year
(thousand m³)
Share
Total used water(without cooling water)
935 345 187 069 100 %
Industry (without cooling)
588 790 117 758 62.95 %
Agriculture and forestry (including fishery)
35 485 7096.98 3.79 %
*irrigation: 66.73%
Households 220 440 44 087.9 23.57 %
Service sector 90 631 18 126.2 9.69 %
*tourism: 34.85%
Source: Water Management Plan, Black Sea WMD
QUANTITATIVE STATE OF THE FRESH WATER RESOURCES
Renewable freshwater /1930/31–2002/03/:
• 2412,9 .10^6 m³;
• 12, 5% from national resources;
• 2 477 м³ per capita /2003/ /Lazarov, Ziapkov, 2003/.
CLIMATE CHANGES
IN THE REGION
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT: TEMPERATURE
Black sea water managment district y = -0.0002x + 0.0846
R2 = 5E-05
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1931
1936
1941
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
T C
Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/
Varna y = 0.0082x - 0.1255
R2 = 0.0292
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT: PRECIPITATIONBlack sea water management district y = 0.081x + 99.529
R2 = 0.0052
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
1931
1936
1941
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
P %
of n
orm
als
Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/
Black sea water management district
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1931 1937 1943 1949 1955 1961 1967 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997 2003
Black sea - runoff
Varna - precip.
Correlation value: 0, 52
AVAILABLE FRESH WATER RESOURCES
Extreme years with high and low water-level
Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/
WMD WET YEARS DRY YEARS
Black sea
1955/56 1954/55 1966/67 1989/90 1948/49 1984/85
R (106 m3) 3660.0 3606.9 3465.6 468.5 522.1 635.1
P % of normal
105 120 115 92 61 78
Bulgaria 1962/63 1954/55 1955/56 1989/90 1993/94 1992/93
R (106 m3) 33590.7 32294.4 31194.2 5996.2 7085.5 7103.9
P % of normal
113 142 106 68 85 90
AVAILABLE FRESH WATER RESOURCES
Water management districts
Years with: Water resources
106 m3
Total Water Abstraction
106 m3
Rates of water
abstraction (%)
Black Sea High water level 3660.0 374.0 10.2
Average water level
2412.8 15.5
Low water level 468.5 79.8
Bulgaria High water level 33590.7 3341.0 9.9
Average water level
19228.6 17.4
Low water level 5996.2 55.7
Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/
WATER LOSSES AND SUPPLY RESTRICTION
WATER LOSS FROM PUBLIC WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
%
POPULATION WITH WATER SUPPLY RESTRICTION
19,45
31,7
18,225 15,275
1,60
10
20
30
40
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
%
Source: National Statistical Institute Bulgaria
CONCLUSIONS AND PROGNOSIS
Increase of urban population
Growing life standard
More water supplied population
Increased irrigation water by 10% - 20%
Industry remains in stagnation
INCREASED WATER CONSUMPTION
DECREASE OF THE WATER RESOURCES
Conflict People - Environment Conflict People - People
Positive temperature anomalies
Periods of decreased precipitation
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!