9th World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators
Meeting (WTIM-11) Mauritius, 7 - 9 December 2011
Contribution to WTIM-11 session Document C/9-E 7 December 2011
English
SOURCE: CISCO
TITLE: Forecasting Internet Growth: Towards A Zettabyte World
© 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 1 Cisco Public 1 © 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Cisco’s Visual Networking Index Forecasting Internet Growth: Towards A Zettabyte World
Robert Pepper Arielle Sumits ITU World Telecom/ICT Indicators Meeting 7 December 2011
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Global Usage Trends
The Cisco VNI Global Forecast methodology is built on independent analyst projections; fixed/mobile usage reports and verified with real network data.
Global, regional, and country-level data modeling
of consumer/business usage trends.
Global Forecast Data
5th Anniversary
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63 EB per mo
20 EB per mo
81 EB
per mo
50 EB
per mo
38 EB
per mo 28 EB
per mo
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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North America
22.3 EB/Month by 2015
26% CAGR, 3X Growth
Western Europe
18.9 EB/Month by 2015
32% CAGR, 4X Growth
Central/Eastern Europe
3.7 EB/Month by 2015
39% CAGR, 5X Growth
Latin America
4.7 EB/Month by 2015
48% CAGR, 7X Growth
Middle East & Africa
2.0 EB/Month by 2015
52% CAGR, 8X Growth
Asia Pacific
24.1 EB/Month by 2015
35% CAGR, 4X Growth
Japan
4.8 EB/Month by 2015
27% CAGR, 3X Growth
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
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In China, IP traffic will grow 6-fold from 2010 to 2015, a 43% CAGR.
In China, IP traffic will reach 8.7 exabytes per month in 2015, up from 1.5 exabytes per month in 2010.
China's IP networks will carry 285 petabytes per day in 2015, up from 48 petabytes per day in 2010.
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
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Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
More Devices
More Internet Users
Faster Broadband Speeds
More Rich Media Content
Key Growth Factors
Nearly 15B Connections 4-Fold Speed Increase
3 Billion Internet Users 1M Video Minutes per Second
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North America
288 million
Western Europe
314 million
Central/Eastern Europe
201 million
Latin America
260 million
Middle East & Africa
495 million
Asia Pacific
1.33 billion
Japan
116 million
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
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In Western Europe, there will be 314 million total Internet users in 2015, up from 262 million in 2010.
.
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
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In India, there will be 196 million total Internet users in 2015, up from 72 million in 2010.
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
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In China, there will be 740 million total Internet users in 2015, up from 504 million in 2010.
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
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North America
2.2 Billion
Networked Devices
Western Europe
2.3 Billion
Networked Devices
Central/Eastern Europe
902 Million
Networked Devices
Latin America
1.3 Billion
Networked Devices
Middle East & Africa
1.3 Billion
Networked Devices
Asia Pacific
5.8 Billion
Networked Devices
Japan
727 Million
Networked Devices
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
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In the United States, there will be over 2 billion networked devices in 2015, up from 1 billion in 2010.
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
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In China, there will be over 3 billion networked devices in 2015, up from 1 billion in 2010.
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
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North America
3.7-Fold growth
7.5 to 27 Mbps
Western Europe
3.9-Fold growth
9.2 to 36 Mbps
Central/Eastern Europe
3.3-Fold growth
6.1 to 20 Mbps
Latin America
2.9-Fold growth
2.8 to 8 Mbps
Middle East & Africa
2.5-Fold growth
2.8 to 7 Mbps
Asia Pacific
4.6-Fold growth
5.5 to 25 Mbps
Japan
4.1-Fold growth
15.5 to 64 Mbps
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
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In the United States, the average broadband speed will grow 3.7-fold from 2010 to 2015, from 7.5 Mbps to 28 Mbps.
In the United States, 84% of broadband connections will be faster than 5 Mbps in 2015, up from 52% today.
In the United States, 55% of broadband connections will be faster than 10 Mbps in 2015, up from 30% today.
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
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In South Africa, the average broadband speed will grow 2.7-fold from 2010 to 2015, from 1.9 Mbps to 5 Mbps.
In South Africa, 15% of broadband connections will be faster than 5 Mbps in 2015.
In South Africa, 4% of broadband connections will be faster than 10 Mbps in 2015.
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
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2015
24.8 GB Traffic/month
2010
7.3 GB Traffic/month
50 GB Traffic/month
Future
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
3 HD videos
5 VoD episodes
2 HD video calls
50 Audio tracks
4 SW updates
1 3D movie
6 HD movies
28 VoD episodes
12 HD video calls
240 Audio tracks
10 SW updates
2 3D movies
11 HD movies
52 VoD episodes
33 HD Video calls
410 Audio tracks
14 SW updates
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In Europe, the average Internet user will generate 47.4 gigabytes of Internet traffic per month in 2015, up 270% from 12.8 gigabytes per month in 2010.
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
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In China, the average Internet user will generate 12.6 gigabytes of Internet traffic per month in 2015, up 400% from 2.5 gigabytes per month in 2010.
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
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2015
61.8 GB Traffic/month
2010
17.1 GB Traffic/month
100 GB Traffic/month
Future
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
5 HD videos
18 VoD episodes
8 HD video calls
155 Audio tracks
7 SW updates
3 3D movie
15 HD movies
69 VoD episodes
26 HD video calls
525 Audio tracks
17 SW updates
6 3D movies
23 HD movies
113 VoD episodes
40 HD Video calls
802 Audio tracks
22 SW updates
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In Europe, the average Internet household will generate 98.8 GBs of traffic per month in 2015, +278% from 26.1 GBs per month in 2010.
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
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In China, the average Internet household will generate 36 GBs of traffic per month in 2015, 329% from 8.4 GBs per month in 2010.
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
© 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 23
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Peta
byte
s /
Mo
nth
VoIP
Online Gaming
Web/Data
File Sharing
Internet Video
Online Gaming andVoIP forecast to be 0.79% of all consumer Internettraffic in 2015
15%
24%
61%
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
34% CAGR 2010–2015
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Peta
byte
s /
Mo
nth
Video Calling
Ambient Video and Internet PVR
Internet-Video-to-PC: Live
Mobile Video
Internet-Video-to-PC: Short Form
Internet-Video-to-TV
Internet-Video-to-PC: Long Form
9.6%
9.7%
38.7%
6.2%
16.7%
14.5%
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
48% CAGR 2010–2015
4.6%
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In China, Internet video traffic will be 83% of all consumer Internet traffic in 2015, up from 57% in 2010.
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
© 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 26
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tera
byte
s /
Mo
nth
3.8 EB per mo
0.24 EB per mo
6.3 EB
per mo
2.2 EB
per mo
1.2 EB
per mo 0.6 EB
per mo
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
92% CAGR 2010–2015
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Peta
byte
s /
Mo
nth
Mobile VoIP
Mobile Gaming
Mobile M2M
Mobile P2P
Mobile Web/Data
Mobile Video
VoIP traffic forecast to be 0.4% of all mobile data traffic in 2015
6.1%
21.0%
66.4%
1.5% 4.7%
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
92% CAGR 2010–2015
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0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Peta
byte
s /
Mo
nth
Mobile Data (92% CAGR)
Fixed/Wired (24% CAGR)
Fixed/Wi-fi (39% CAGR)
46.1%
46.2%
7.77%
32% CAGR 2010–2015
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
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0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Peta
byte
s /
Mo
nth
Mobile Data (91% CAGR)
Fixed/Wired (24% CAGR)
Fixed/Wi-fi (35% CAGR) 37.5%
53.8%
8.7%
32% CAGR 2010–2015
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Peta
byte
s /
Mo
nth
Mobile Data (82% CAGR)
Fixed/Wired (23% CAGR)
Fixed/Wi-fi (30% CAGR)
60.9%
34.6%
4.4%
26% CAGR 2010–2015
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Peta
byte
s /
Mo
nth
Mobile Data
Fixed/Wired
Fixed/Wi-Fi47.5%
48.4%
4.1%
43% CAGR 2010–2015
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Peta
byte
s /
Mo
nth
Mobile Data (102% CAGR)
Fixed/Wired (24% CAGR)
Fixed/Wi-fi (52% CAGR) 34.2%
56.5%
9.3%
39% CAGR 2010–2015
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
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0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Peta
byte
s /
Mo
nth
Mobile Data (129% CAGR)
Fixed/Wired (29% CAGR)
Fixed/Wi-fi (62% CAGR)26.8%
54.1%
19.2%
52% CAGR 2010–2015
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
© 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 34
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Peta
byte
s /
Mo
nth
Mobile Data
Fixed/Wired
Fixed/Wi-Fi
32.1%
39.6%
28.3%
54% CAGR 2010–2015
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
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46% 43%
53%
49%
0%
30%
60%
Total IP CAGR 2005-2010 Internet CAGR 2005-2010
Projected in 2006
Actual
5th Anniversary
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
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Traffic
VNI Usage VNI Usage Industry Analysts
Regulators, ITU Industry Analysts Surveys / Panels
VNI Usage
Industry Standards
Device Specs
Connection Speeds Device Specs
Connection Speeds
Surveys / Panels
CODECs
Associations
(CEA, GSMA)
Carrier Pricing
Carrier Pricing
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Country 2010 Source
Australia 4,313,00 VNI estimates based on Australia telecom regulator data, ITU
Brazil 26,284,600 VNI estimates based on Brazil telecom regulator data, ITU
Canada 3,259,300 VNI estimates based on comScore, Nielsen, IDC
China 283,980,000 VNI estimates based on China telecom regulator data, ITU
France 17,356,450 IDC, Ovum
Germany 17,785,740 IDC, Ovum
India 9,574,400 IDC, Ovum
Italy 13,051,400 IDC, Ovum
Japan 40,473,650 IDC, Ovum
Korea 15,830,600 IDC, Ovum
Mexico 12,515,400 IDC, Ovum
New Zealand 770,300 VNI estimates based on adoption rates from consumer surveys
Russia 19,266,000 VNI estimates based on adoption rates from consumer surveys
South Africa 1,879,053 VNI estimates based on adoption rates from consumer surveys
United Kingdom 15,665,259 VNI estimates based on UK telecom regulator data, ITU
United States 149,561,804 IDC, Nielsen
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http://www.cisco.com/go/vni
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
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Thank you.