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  • Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    International Power and GDFSuez International

    GSZ.PA, GSZ FP 24.32

    Comparing the two businesses

    IPR.L, IPR LN 317p

    Equity Ratings and Price Targets Mkt Cap Price RatingCompany Symbol ($ mn) Currency Price Cur GDF SUEZ(R) GSZ.PA EUR 24.32 International Power Plc(R) IPR.L GBp 317 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. n/c = no change. (R) under applicable law and/or J. P. Morand price target for this company have been removed. All prices as of 16 Jul 10.

    See page 21 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US aJ.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, invhave a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this repinvestment decision.

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    Yesterday morning IPR made an announcement regarding a potential corporate combination with GDFSuez. In our view the key points from the announcement were:

    Deal structure: GDFSuez would put its international assets (outside Europe) and certain assets in the UK and Turkey into IPR and in return IPR would issue new shares to GDFSuez.

    Retain London listing: The enlarged group would retain its listing on the London Stock Exchange.

    GDFSuez would be the majority shareholder: No details are provided regarding what GDFSuezs stake in the combined group would be, only that it would be a majority owner.

    IPR board considering the combination: IPR's board states that the proposed combination has strategic rationale and there would be synergy potential.

    Our initial view is that there is considerable strategic rationale for a transaction.

    Geographical overlap: IPR and GDFSuezs international assets have a considerable amount of overlap, specifically in the UK, North America and Middle East.

    Low CO2 intensity: Both companies have generation fleets with low CO2 intensity and the combination of the two companies would leave the combined group well placed if there are more restrictions on CO2 world- wide.

    Capacity growth: The combined entity would have 7.4GW of net capacity under construction, providing it with 18% capacity growth over the next 4 years.

    Despite the strategic logic behind the deal, today's announcement contains no information on timeline or merger ratios and as such it remains in its preliminary stages.

    This document is being provided for the exclusive use of UNIVERSIDAD ESAN at UNIVERSIDAD ESANElectric Utilities

    Edmund ReidAC

    (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    Nathalie F Casali (44-20) 7325-9023 [email protected]

    J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.

    Figure 1: IPR/ GSZ International combined net capacity by region

    North Americ32%

    Europe21%

    Middle East and Asia22%

    Latin America17%

    Australia8%

    Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan es

    J.P.Morgan plc is acting as afinancial adviser to InternatioPower Plc on its preliminarydiscussions with GDF Suez Sregarding a possible combinaof International Power and GSuez's Energy International Business Areas (outside Euro Price Target Prev Cur Prev

    gan Chase & Co policy the recommendation

    nalyst disclosures. estors should be aware that the firm may

    ort as only a single factor in making their

    and certain assets in the UK and Turkey ("GDF Suez Energy International"), to create an enlarged International Power which would be listed on the Official List of the Financial Services Authority ("Official List") and traded on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange as announced on 19 July 2010.

  • 2

    Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    Edmund Reid (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    Company Data Price () 24.32Date Of Price 16 Jul 1052-week Range () 31.34 - 22.64Shares O/S (mn) 2,261

    GDF SUEZ (GSZ.PA;GSZ FP)FYE Dec 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013EAdj. EPS FY () 2.11 1.89 2.12 2.20 2.24EBITDA FY ( mn) 14,012 14,824 16,214 16,978 17,438Headline EPS FY () 2.03 2.19 2.09 2.20 2.24Adj P/E FY 11.5 12.9 11.5 11.1 10.8EV/EBITDA FY 7.2 7.0 6.5 6.2 5.9Gross Yield FY 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.5% 6.7%DPS (Net) FY () 1.47 1.50 1.54 1.59 1.64EBITDA margin FY 17.5% 18.4% 19.6% 19.3% 19.0%Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

    Company Data Price (p) 317Date Of Price 16 Jul 1052-week Range (p) 354 - 243Shares O/S (mn) 1,529

    International Power Plc (IPR.L;IPR LN)FYE Dec 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013EAdj. EPS FY (p) 33.39 29.48 27.30 31.02 32.84Adj P/E FY 9.5 10.7 11.6 10.2 9.6Adj EBITDA FY ( mn) 1,535 1,337 1,258 1,327 1,363EV/EBITDA FY 6.3 6.9 7.2 6.6 6.2Pretax Profit Adjusted FY ( mn)

    718 659 601 695 744

    Net Debt/EBITDA (Wrapper) FY

    3.3 3.6 3.6 3.2 2.8

    DPS (Net) FY (p) 13 13 13 13 13Net Yield FY 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.1%Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

    Table of Contents Summary ...................................................................................3 Overview of the combined entity ............................................4 Geographical split ........................................................................................................4 Fuel split ......................................................................................................................5 Contract split................................................................................................................6 Assets under construction ............................................................................................7 Comparison of Financials........................................................9 Appendix 1 IPR assets ........................................................13 Appendix 2 GDF Suez International Assets ......................15

    This document is being provided for the exclusive use of UNIVERSIDAD ESAN at UNIVERSIDAD ESAN

  • 3

    Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    Edmund Reid (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    Summary Yesterday morning (July 19th) IPR made an announcement regarding a potential corporate combination with GDFSuez. In our view the key points from the announcement were:

    Deal structure: GDFSuez would put its international assets (outside Europe) and certain assets in the UK and Turkey into IPR and in return IPR would issue shares to GDFSuez;

    Retain London listing: The enlarged group would retain its listing on the London Stock Exchange;

    GDFSuez would be the majority shareholder

    IPR board considering the combination: IPR's board states that the proposed combination has strategic rationale and there would be synergy potential.

    The exact text of the announcement is enclosed below.

    The Board of International Power announces that it is in preliminary discussions with GDF Suez SA ("GDF Suez") regarding a possible combination of International Power and GDF Suezs Energy International Business Areas (outside Europe) and certain assets in the UK and Turkey ("GDF Suez Energy International"), to create an enlarged International Power which would be listed on the Official List of the Financial Services Authority (Official List) and traded on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. The Board of International Power believes that the possible combination warrants consideration given the strategic rationale and potential for synergies as a result of the combination and discussions are continuing between the two parties regarding the terms of the proposed combination (including the amount of net debt that would be contributed with GDF Suez Energy International). If the combination were to be completed, it is expected that shares in International Power would be issued to GDF Suez and that, as a result, GDF Suez would be the majority shareholder in the enlarged International Power.

    IPR and GDFSuez have previously discussed a business combination along these lines. On 18th January 2010 IPR made an announcement stating that

    it has held preliminary discussions regarding a potential combination of International Power and certain power assets of GDF Suez S.A ("GDF Suez"). No agreement was reached between International Power and GDF Suez and discussions are no longer ongoing.

    Yesterdays announcement provides considerably more detail regarding the potential structure of any deal. Importantly, in our view, GDFSuez has provided new disclosures regarding the assets which would be included in a potential transaction with detailed financial information for the last three years. We believe that this should allow shareholders to more closely evaluate the worth of the assets.

    Our initial view is that there is considerable strategic rationale for a transaction.

    This document is being provided for the exclusive use of UNIVERSIDAD ESAN at UNIVERSIDAD ESAN

  • 4

    Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    Edmund Reid (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    Geographical overlap: IPR and GDFSuezs international assets have a considerable amount of overlap, specifically in the UK, North America, Middle East and Asia;

    Low CO2 intensity: Both companies have generation fleets with low CO2 intensity and the combination of the two companies would leave the combined group well placed if there are more restrictions on CO2 worldwide;

    Capacity growth: The combined entity would have 7.4GW of net capacity under construction, providing it with 18% capacity growth over the next 4 years.

    Despite the strategic logic behind the deal, yesterdays announcement contains no information on timeline or merger ratios and as such it remains in its preliminary stages.

    Overview of the combined entity IPR and GDF Suez International are the second and third largest Independent Power Producers (IPPs) worldwide by gross capacity. IPR currently has 32.358 GW of gross generation capacity and 20.671 GW of net capacity worldwide. In addition, it is constructing 4.567 GW of gross capacity (1.452 MW of net capacity). GDF Suez International has 32 GW of gross capacity worldwide (20.7 GW net capacity). In addition it has 18 GW of committed development projects gross (5.97 GW net).

    Figure 2: Ranking of main IPPs worldwide (gross installed capacity in GW 2)

    Source: GDF Suez

    Geographical split There is considerable geographical overlap between the two companies, specifically in North America, the Middle East, Asia and the UK. This should provide synergies around trading and also head office costs in those geographies. Overall, we think that a combined group would remain geographically diversified, ensuring that it was not overly reliant on a particular region.

    This document is being provided for the exclusive use of UNIVERSIDAD ESAN at UNIVERSIDAD ESAN

  • 5

    Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    Edmund Reid (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    Figure 3: IPR geographical split (net installed capacity) at 31 December 2009

    North America31%

    Europe32%

    Middle East12%

    Austrlia16%

    Asia9%

    Source: Company reports.

    Figure 4: GSZ International geographical split (net installed capacity) December 2009

    North America32%

    UK & Turkey10%Middle East and

    Asia

    Latin America34%

    Source: Company reports.

    Figure 5: Pro-forma combined entity net installed capacity by geography

    North America32%

    Europe21%

    Middle East and Asia22%

    Latin America17%

    Australia8%

    Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.

    Fuel split Both IPR and GDF Suez International have low CO2 intensity generation capacity. The installed capacity of both companies is heavily weighted towards gas (61% for IPR and 58% for GDFSuez). In addition, both companies have significant renewable capacity which means that they are well placed to deal with tightening controls on CO2 emissions worldwide.

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  • 6

    Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    Edmund Reid (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    Figure 6: IPR Fuel split (net installed capacity) 31 December 2009

    Gas61.0%

    Coal21.5%

    Pumped Storage8.0%

    Wind6.0%

    Oil 3.0%

    Hy dro0.5%

    Source: Company reports.

    Figure 7: GSZ international assets fuel split - gross installed capacity 31 December 2009

    Coal9%

    Gas58%

    Hy dro24%

    Renew ables2%

    Fuel 7%

    Source: Company reports.

    Contract split The structure of the contracts is slightly different. GDFSuez International has more capacity under long-term contract than IPR. However, based on the proposed deal structure announced, a combined entity should be quite evenly balanced between long-term contracted and merchant assets. Importantly much of the exposure to merchant markets will be in North America where electricity prices are below new entrant levels and there have been signs of recovering demand.

    Figure 8: IPR asset contract split (net capacity MW) at 31 December 2009

    Long term contracted

    34.0%

    Wind 6.0%

    Short term contracted

    24.0%

    Uncontracted28.0%

    Pumped Storage8.0%

    Source: Company reports.

    Figure 9: GSZ International assets contract split (gross GW) at 31 December 2009

    IPP66%

    Merchant34%

    Source: Company reports.

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  • 7

    Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    Edmund Reid (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    Assets under construction Both companies have strong growth plans, particularly GDFSuez International which has plans to build almost 6 GW of net capacity over the next four years. This represents 29% of its current installed capacity. This compares to IPRs capacity under construction, which is 1.45 GW or 7% of installed capacity.

    Table 1: GDFSuez International committed projects Country Asset/company Fuel GSZ

    share Gross capacity Net

    capacity Latin America - Brazil 4,589 2,207

    Jirau Hydro 50.10% 3,450 1,728 Estreito Hydro 40.70% 1,086 442 Andrade Sugar cane 68.70% 33 23 PCH Airea Branca Hydro 68.70% 20 14

    Chile 339 196 E-CL-CTA Coal 52.40% 150 79 E-CL-CTA Coal 52.40% 150 79 Laja Hydro 100% 39 39

    Panama 115 115 Alternergy and Bontex Hydro 100% 115 115

    Peru 364 225 Chilca Natural gas 61.70% 250 154 Quitarasca Natural gas 61.70% 114 70

    Total 5,407 2,743 Middle East and Asia Bahrain Al Dur Natural Gas 45.0% 1,233 555 Qatar Ras Laffan C Natural Gas 20.0% 2,730 546 Saudi Arabia 3,821 764

    Jubail Pow er Water & Co Natural Gas 20.0% 2,091 418 Riyadh Natural Gas 20.0% 1,730 346

    Oman Barka 3/Sohar 2 Natural Gas 46.0% 1,440 662 Singapore Senoko Natural Gas 30.0% 750 225 Thailand 1,087 0

    Glow Coal, Natural Gas na 427 na Gheco One Coal na 660 na

    United Arab Em irates Shuw eihat S2 Natural Gas 20.0% 1,510 302 Total 12,571 3,054 North America USA Astoria Energy Power Plants - Phase 2 Natural Gas 30.0% 575 173 Total 575 173 Total committed capacity as of June 2010 18,553 5,970

    Source: Company reports.

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  • 8

    Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    Edmund Reid (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    Table 2: International Power assets under construction Country Expected

    completion date % ownership Net capacity

    (MW) Total investment Proposed

    capital structure Contractual position

    Canada Wind Canada 2010 100% 76 Can$227m (152m)

    25% equity, 75% debt

    PPA 2030

    European Wind Italy 2010 75% 23 Regulated Tariff

    Fujairah F2 UAE 2010 20% 400 $2,705 20% equity, 80% debt

    PPA to 2030

    Synergen Australia 2010 100% 24 Merchant HUBCO - Narowal

    Pakistan 2010 17% 36 PPA 2035

    Elecgas Portugal 2011 50% 415 580 15% equity; 85% debt

    Tolling to 2036

    T Power Belgium 2011 33% 140 448 15% equity; 85% debt

    Tolling 2026

    Paiton 3 Indonesia 2012 31% 253 $1.2bn 20% equity, 80% debt

    PPA 2042

    TNP2 Thailand 2012 100% 110 THB4.1bn 25% equity, 75% debt

    PPA 2037

    HUBCO - Laraib Pakistan 2013 13% 11 PPA 2038

    Total 1,452

    Source: Company reports.

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  • 9

    Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    Edmund Reid (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    Comparison of Financials Table 3: International Power net income statement (m)

    2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E Total turnover 3,526 3,515 3,686 3,890 4,066 Operating Profit North America 100 109 127 153 181 Europe 561 491 398 418 371 Middle East 51 55 56 56 57 Australia 229 226 212 232 256 Asia 18 16 16 17 17 Corporate Costs (52) (53) (55) (56) (53) Operating Profit 907 844 755 819 828 JV & Associates PAT North America 34 26 27 28 28 Europe 68 47 42 43 46 Middle East 34 26 34 35 36 Australia 4 4 5 5 5 Asia 110 109 115 118 140 Total JV & Associates PAT 250 213 223 228 255 Profit from Operations 1,157 1,057 978 1,047 1,083 Net interest (439) (398) (377) (352) (339) Profit before tax (pre-exceptionals) 718 659 601 695 744 Exceptionals 0 0 0 0 1 Profit before tax 718 659 601 695 745 Tax on Ord. Activities (113) (114) (100) (131) (152) Deferred Tax 0 0 0 0 0 Exceptional Tax 0 0 0 0 1 IAS 39 mark to market 0 0 0 0 0 Profit after tax 605 544 501 564 594 Minority interests (97) (92) (80) (82) (78) Earnings 508 452 421 482 516 Dividends (191) (192) (193) (194) (205) Retained profit 317 260 228 287 310

    Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data.

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  • 10

    Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    Edmund Reid (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    Table 4: International Power Balance sheet (m) 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E

    Total fixed assets 11,364.0 11,404.5 11,459.0 11,522.8 11,617.1 Inventories 251.0 251.0 251.0 251.0 251.0 Receivables & prepayments 869.0 869.0 869.0 869.0 869.0 Current liabilities (875.0) (874.6) (874.6) (874.6) (874.6) Net current assets (109.0) (108.6) (108.6) (108.6) (108.6) Total Assets 11,255.0 11,296.0 11,350.4 11,414.3 11,508.5 Net Cash/ (Debt) (5,059.0) (4,747.5) (4,494.1) (4,188.4) (3,864.1) Provisions for liabilities and charges (91.0) (91.0) (91.0) (91.0) (121.0) Deferred Taxation (867.0) (867.0) (867.0) (867.0) (867.0) Net assets 4,812.0 5,164.5 5,472.3 5,841.9 6,230.4 Capital and reserves 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Called up ordinary share capital 761.0 761.0 761.0 761.0 761.0 Share premium account 436.0 436.0 436.0 436.0 436.0 Capital redemption reserve 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 Capital Reserve 422.0 422.0 422.0 422.0 422.0 Profit and loss account 2,381.0 2,641.1 2,869.3 3,156.8 3,467.1 Minority Interests 285.0 377.3 456.9 539.1 617.4 Total shareholders funds 4,811.0 5,163.5 5,471.3 5,840.9 6,229.4

    Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data.

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  • 11

    Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    Edmund Reid (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    Table 5: International Power cash flow (m) 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E

    Profit for the period 1,143.0 544.5 501.0 564.1 593.8 Interest expense 546.0 397.9 376.5 352.1 339.3 Tax expense 159.0 114.1 100.0 131.2 151.9 JV & Associate profit (276.0) (212.8) (222.9) (228.3) (254.7) Depreciation 378.0 280.0 280.0 280.0 280.0 Exceptional Profit (359.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Provisions (51.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.0 Dividends received from JVs & Associates 146.0 146.0 146.0 146.0 146.0 Maintenance capex (148.0) (153.8) (157.6) (161.5) (165.6) Other (8.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 IAS mark to market (311.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Goodwill Amortisation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net change in intangible assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (Increase)/decrease in stocks 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (Increase)/decrease in debtors 151.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Increase/(decrease) in creditors (59.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash generated from operations 1,320.0 1,116.0 1,023.1 1,083.6 1,120.7 Cash Tax (105.0) (114.1) (100.0) (131.2) (151.9) Cash Interest (430.0) (397.9) (376.5) (352.1) (339.3) Net Cash from operating activities 785.0 603.9 546.6 600.2 629.5 Growth Capex (115.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) Financial investments (18.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Acquisitions & Disposals 556.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gov grants received 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Alstom compensation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hedging 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash flow pre-financing 1,208.0 503.9 446.6 500.2 529.5 Dividends paid (195.0) (192.4) (193.2) (194.5) (205.2) Shares issued 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Change in Liquid resources (889.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share buy back 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Repayment of Debt by JVs & Associates (78.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends paid to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 New loans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Increase/ (Decrease) in Cash 49.0 311.5 253.3 305.7 324.3

    Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data.

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  • 12

    Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    Edmund Reid (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    Table 6: GDF Suez international assets - financial snapshot m

    2007A 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E EBITDA 1,580 1,792 1,979 2,162 2,367 2,669 % growth 13% 10% 9% 9% 13% Latin America 865 1,007 1,026 1,165 1,331 1,444 North America 477 557 657 724 760 781 Middle East and Asia 286 268 286 295 324 492 UK and Turkey - 27 85 53 27 28 Other (48) (67) (75) (75) (75) (75)

    Current operating income 1,219 1,380 1,423 Latin America 731 861 835 North America 335 417 423 Middle East and Asia 207 189 197 UK and Turkey - - 51 Other (54) (87) (84)

    Income from operating activities 1,093 1,267 1,293 Latin America 745 880 714 North America 200 199 176 Middle East and Asia 203 403 398 UK and Turkey - (124) 70 Other (54) (91) (65)

    Net financial costs (272) (348) (334) Tax (252) (373) (329) Effective tax rate 30.7% 40.6% 34.6% Share in net income of associates 19 16 18 Net income 589 562 648

    Capex 621 3,276 2,199 2,058 1,301 842 Latin America 387 1,189 1,406 North America 180 1,022 376 Middle East and Asia 54 1,041 224 UK and Turkey - 24 193

    Capital employed 6,926 11,006 13,266 Latin America 2,554 3,506 5,224 North America 2,769 4,788 4,869 Middle East and Asia 1,603 2,473 2,659 UK and Turkey - 239 514

    Net debt 5,113 7,662 8,872 o/w internal financial net debt 2,970 3,274 3,548

    ND:EBITDA 3.2x 4.3x 4.5x Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data.

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    Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    Edmund Reid (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    Appendix 1 IPR assets Table 7: IPR asset breakdown

    Location Fuel/type Gross capacity MW(1)

    IPR Ownership (IPM Ownership)

    Net capacity MW

    Contractual Position

    North America IPR Canada Wind Portfolio Canada Wind 40 100% 40 Regulated

    Tariff Calumet Illinois Gas 303 100% 303 Merchant Bellingham Massachusetts Gas (CCGT) 539 100% 539 Merchant Blackstone Massachusetts Gas (CCGT) 488 100% 488 Merchant Milford Massachusetts Gas (CCGT) 160 100% 160 Merchant Troy Ohio Gas/Oil 616 100% 616 Merchant Armstrong Pennsylvania Gas/Oil 625 100% 625 Merchant Coleto Creek Texas Coal 667 100% 667 Contracted Hays Texas Gas (CCGT) 913 100% 913 Merchant Midlothian Texas Gas (CCGT) 1,423 100% 1,423 Merchant Oyster Creek Texas Gas (Cogen/CCGT) 440 50% 220 PPA 2014 Pleasants West Virginia Gas/Oil 313 100% 313 Merchant EcoElectrica Puerto Rico LNG (CCGT) 548 35% (50%) 192 PPA 2022 North America total in operation 7,075 6,499 Europe IPR European Wind Portfolio Germany/France/Netherlands/It

    aly Wind 1,189 100% 1,189 Regulated

    Tariff ISAB Italy Gas (IGCC) 562 34% (49%) 193 PPA 2020 Tejo Enegia (Pego) Portugal Coal 628 50% 314 PPA 2021 Turbogas Portugal Gas (CCGT) 1,008 100% 1,008 PPA 2024 Spanish Hydro Spain Hydro/Solar 88 67% (95%) 58 PPA 2030 -

    2065 Uni-Mar (Marmara) Turkey Gas (CCGT) 488 33% 162 PPA 2020 Deeside UK Gas (CCGT) 500 75% (100%) 375 Merchant Derwent UK Gas (CCGT) 214 23% (33%) 49 PPA 2010 Indian Queens UK Oil (OCGT) 140 75% (100%) 105 Merchant First Hydro UK Pumped Storage 2,088 75% (100%) 1,566 Merchant Rugeley UK Coal (50 MW of

    OCGT) 1,050 75% (100%) 788 Merchant

    Saltend UK Gas (CCGT/Cogen) 1,200 75% (100%) 900 Merchant Europe total in operation 9,155 6,707 Middle East Hidd Bahrain Gas

    (CCGT)/desalination 1,006 40% 402 PPA 2027

    Al Kamil Oman Gas (OCGT) 276 65% 180 PPA 2017

    Ras Laffan B Qatar Gas (CCGT)/desalination

    1,055 40% 422 PPA 2033

    Tihama Saudi Arabia Gas (Cogen) 1,076 60% 646 PPA 2026 Shuweihat S1 UAE Gas

    (CCGT)/desalination 1,572 20% 314 PPA 2025

    Umm Al Nar UAE Gas (CCGT)/desalination

    2,450 20% 490 PPA 2026

    Middle East total in operation 7,435 2,454 Australia Canunda South Australia Wind 46 100% 46 PPA 2015 Pelican Point South Australia Gas (CCGT) 487 100% 487 Merchant Synergen South Australia Gas/distillate 371 100% 371 Merchant Hazelwood Victoria Coal 1,675 92% 1,541 Merchant

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    Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    Edmund Reid (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    Loy Yang B Victoria Coal 1,026 70% (100%) 718 PPA 2016

    Kwinana Western Australia Gas (CCGT) 118 49% (70%) 58 PPA 2021 Australia total in operation 3,723 3,221 Asia Paiton Indonesia Coal 1,365 31% (45%) 423 PPA 2040

    HUBCO Pakistan Oil 1,290 17% 219 PPA 2027

    KAPCO Pakistan Gas / Oil (CCGT) 1,600 36% 576 PPA 2021

    Uch Pakistan Gas/Oil (CCGT) 572 75% 429 PPA 2023 TNP (Pluak Daeng) Thailand Gas (Cogen) 143 100% 143 PPA 2025 Asia total in operation 4,970 1,790 TOTAL in operation around the world 32,358 20,671 Source: Company reports.

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  • 15

    Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    Edmund Reid (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    Appendix 2 GDF Suez Intl Assets Country Asset/company Fuel GSZ share Gross capacity

    (MW) Net cap.

    (MW) Existing power generation assets Latin America Brazil 7,378 5,069 Tractebel Energia Hydro, fuel oil, wind, coal, gas, wood 68.70% 7,378 5,069 Chile 1,729 924 E-CL Hydro, fuel oil, coal, gas, diesel 52.40% 653 342 Electroandina Fuel oil, coal, gas, diesel 52.40% 1,038 544 Eolica Monte Redondo Wind 100% 38 38 Costa Rica 50 45 Planta Eolica de Guanacaste Wind 90% 50 45 Panama 324 206 Bahia Las Minas heavy fuel oil, diesel 51% 241 123 Cativa Fuel oil n.6 100% 83 83 Peru 1,043 644 Enersur Natural gas, heavy fuel oil 61.70% 1,043 644 Total existing Latin America 10,524 6,887 Committed power generation projects Latin America - Brazil 4,589 2,207 Jirau Hydro 50.10% 3,450 1,728 Estreito Hydro 40.70% 1,086 442 Andrade Sugar cane 68.70% 33 23 PCH Airea Branca Hydro 68.70% 20 14 Chile 339 196 E-CL-CTA Coal 52.40% 150 79 E-CL-CTA Coal 52.40% 150 79 Laja Hydro 100% 39 39 Panama Alternergy and Bontex Hydro 100% 115 115 Peru Chilca and Quitarasca Natural Gas/Hydro 61.7% 364 225 Total committed Latin America 5,407 2,743 Non power generation assets Latin America Argentina Litoral gas Gas distribution 64% 1701km of pipeline Chile Mejillones LNG terminal 50% Operational by 2010, 5.5mcm/day Gasoductor Norandino 1045km of piplines, 8mcm/day Distrinor Gas exploration, distrib and trading 52% n/a Peru TGP Gas transportation 8% 729km of pipelines Existing power generation assets North America Canada 319 315 Ventus - Norway Wind 100.0% 9 9 Ventus - West Cape Wind 100.0% 99 99 West Windsor Power Natural Gas 96.1% 112 108 Ventus - Caribou Wind 100.0% 99 99 Mexico 279 279 Tractebel Energia Natural Gas 100.0% 279 279 USA 6,775 6,079 Astoria Energy Power plant -Phase

    1 Natural Gas 58.5% 575 336

    Choctaw Natural Gas, Lignite 100.0% 1,186 1,186 College Park Energy Natural Gas 100.0% 27 27 Colorado Energy Power Co. Coal, Biogas 100.0% 45 45 Ennis- tractabel Power Co. Natural Gas 100.0% 343 343 FirstLight Hydro, Coal, Kerosene 100.0% 1,538 1,538 Hawkins Point Energy Services Natural Gas 100.0% 10 10 Hopewell Cogeneration Natural Gas 100.0% 365 365 Hot Spring Power Company Natural Gas 100.0% 746 746 North Jersey Energy Associates Natural Gas 50.0% 287 144 Nothereastern Power Company Waste anthracite 100.0% 51 51 Pinetree Power Wood 100.0% 56 56 Ryegate Associates Wood 66.9% 20 13 Shreveport Red Rivers Utilities Natural Gas 39.2% -

    This document is being provided for the exclusive use of UNIVERSIDAD ESAN at UNIVERSIDAD ESAN

  • 16

    Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    Edmund Reid (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    SUEZ Energy BioPower Natural Gas, Wood 100.0% - Country Asset/company Fuel GSZ share Gross capacity Net

    capacity SUEZ - DEGS Natural Gas, Coal 248 - Syracuse Energy Corporation Coal 100.0% 65 65 Tractebel Northeast Generation GP,

    Inc - Bellingham Natural Gas 100.0% 304 304

    Trigen Natural Gas, Fuel Oil 56 - Viking Energy Wood 100.0% 33 33 Wharton County Generation Natural Gas 100.0% 67 67 Winooski One Partnership Hydro, Coal, Kerosene 50.0% 7 4 Wise County Power Company Natural Gas 100.0% 746 746 Total existing North America 7,373 6,672 Committed power generation projects North America USA Astoria Energy Power Plants -

    Phase 2 Natural Gas 30.0% 575 173

    Total committed North America 575 173 Non power generation assets North America USA Boston LNG terminal 100.0% 6.85 bcm p.a. Neptune (under construction LNG terminal 100.0% Canada Noverco Energy transport and distribution 17.0% GDFQ 100.0% Mexico Gas distribution companies Gas distribution 100.0% Overall transportation Gas transportation companies Gas distribution 100.0% Existing power generation assets Middle East & Asia Bahrain 1,892 711 Al Ezzel Pow er Company B.S.C. Natural Gas 45.0% 954 429 Al Hidd (Phase 1-2) Natural Gas 30.0% 938 281 China Zhenjiang Hongshun Thermal Plant Coal 27.4% 24 7 Laos Houay Ho Pow er Company Hydro 69.8% 153 107 Oman 1,928 901 Al-Rusail Natural Gas 47.5% 665 316 Sohar Pow er Company SAOC Natural Gas 45.0% 585 263 Barka 2 combined cycle Natural Gas 47.5% 678 322 Singapore Senoko Fuel Oil, Natural Gas 30.0% 3,300 990 Thailand Glow Natural Gas, Coal 69.1% 1,708 1,180 Turkey Baymina Enerji AS Natural Gas 95.0% 763 725 United Arab Emirates Gulf Total Tractebel Pow er Company Natural Gas 20.0% 1,592 318 Saudi Arabia Jubail Pow er and Water Company Natural Gas 19.8% 660 131 Total existing Middle East & Asia 11,996 5,063 Committed power generation assets Middle East & Asia Bahrain Al Dur Natural Gas 45.0% 1,233 555 Qatar Ras Laffan C Natural Gas 20.0% 2,730 546 Saudi Arabia Jubail Pow er Water & Co, Riyadh Natural Gas 20.0% 3,821 764 Singapore Senoko Natural Gas 30.0% 750 225 Thailand 1,087 0 Glow Coal, Natural Gas na 427 na Gheco One Coal na 660 na United Arab Emirates Shuw eihat S2 Natural Gas 20.0% 1,510 302 Total committed Middle East & Asia 12,571 3,054 Non power generation assets Thailand PTTNGD Gas distribution 40.0% na Existing power generation assets UK & Tukey UK 2,105 2,105 Teesside Natural gas 100.00% 1,875 1,875 Shotton Natural gas 100.00% 210 210 Scotia Wind 100.00% 20 20 GDF Suez Energy UK Retail 100% n/a Total existing UK and Turkey 2,105 2,105 Non power generation assets Turkey Izgaz Gas distribution 90% 2900km network TOTAL INSTALLED 31,998 20,727 TOTAL COMMITTED 18,553 5,970 Source: Company reports .

    This document is being provided for the exclusive use of UNIVERSIDAD ESAN at UNIVERSIDAD ESAN

  • 17

    Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    Edmund Reid (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    JPM Q-ProfileGDF Suez S.A. (FRANCE / Utilities)As Of: 16-Jul-2010 [email protected]

    Local Share Price Current: 25.33 12 Mth Forward EPS Current: 2.10

    Earnings Yield (& local bond Yield) Current: 8% Implied Value Of Growth* Current: -3.89%

    PE (1Yr Forward) Current: 12.0x Price/Book Value Current: 0.9x

    ROE (Trailing) Current: 7.59 Dividend Yield (Trailing) Current: 6.26

    Summary

    GDF Suez S.A. 72368.35 As Of:FRANCE 176.6164 SEDOL B0C2CQ3 Local Price: 25.33Utilities Multi-Utilities EPS: 2.10

    Latest Min Max Median Average 2 S.D.+ 2 S.D. - % to Min % to Max % to Med % to Avg12mth Forward PE 12.04x 9.04 16.75 13.40 13.23 16.52 9.95 -25% 39% 11% 10%P/BV (Trailing) 0.93x 0.86 2.49 2.01 1.76 2.82 0.70 -7% 167% 116% 89%Dividend Yield (Trailing) 6.26 0.00 6.31 3.17 3.55 6.88 0.22 -100% 1% -49% -43%ROE (Trailing) 7.59 7.59 47.46 15.26 17.01 36.49 -2.47 0% 526% 101% 124%Implied Value of Growth -3.9% -0.26 0.31 0.15 0.13 0.39 -0.14 -558% 903% 486% 431%

    Source: Bloomberg, Reuters Global Fundamentals, IBES CONSENSUS, J.P. Morgan Calcs * Implied Value Of Growth = (1 - EY/Cost of equity) where cost of equity =Bond Yield + 5.0% (ERP)

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    This document is being provided for the exclusive use of UNIVERSIDAD ESAN at UNIVERSIDAD ESAN

  • 18

    Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    Edmund Reid (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    JPM Q-ProfileInternational Power PLC (BRITAIN / Utilities)As Of: 16-Jul-2010 [email protected]

    Local Share Price Current: 3.20 12 Mth Forward EPS Current: 0.29

    Earnings Yield (& local bond Yield) Current: 9% Implied Value Of Growth* Current: -14.14%

    PE (1Yr Forward) Current: 11.0x Price/Book Value Current: 1.1x

    ROE (Trailing) Current: 23.90 Dividend Yield (Trailing) Current: 4.17

    Summary

    International Power PLC 7480.34 As Of:BRITAIN 26.121 SEDOL 0632016 Local Price: 3.20Utilities Independent Power Producers & EPS: 0.29

    Latest Min Max Median Average 2 S.D.+ 2 S.D. - % to Min % to Max % to Med % to Avg12mth Forward PE 10.97x 4.76 24.66 10.65 11.07 19.40 2.73 -57% 125% -3% 1%P/BV (Trailing) 1.07x 0.52 2.79 1.40 1.53 2.68 0.39 -52% 160% 30% 43%Dividend Yield (Trailing) 4.17 0.00 39.63 2.49 5.60 22.85 -11.66 -100% 850% -40% 34%ROE (Trailing) 23.90 -13.42 37.21 18.17 15.04 36.49 -6.41 -156% 56% -24% -37%Implied Value of Growth -14.1% -0.87 0.61 -0.03 -0.05 0.67 -0.77 -518% 530% 81% 63%

    Source: Bloomberg, Reuters Global Fundamentals, IBES CONSENSUS, J.P. Morgan Calcs * Implied Value Of Growth = (1 - EY/Cost of equity) where cost of equity =Bond Yield + 5.0% (ERP)

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    This document is being provided for the exclusive use of UNIVERSIDAD ESAN at UNIVERSIDAD ESAN

  • 19

    Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    Edmund Reid (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    GDF SUEZ: Summary of Financials Profit and Loss Statement Valuation ratios in millions, year end Dec FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E in millions, year end Dec FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E Sales 79,908 80,640 82,897 87,798 91,567 P/E (recurrent) 13.5 15.1 13.4 13.0 12.7 EBITDA 14,012 14,824 16,214 16,978 17,438 P/E (reported) 12.0 11.1 11.6 11.1 10.8 Gross Operating Profit 14,012 14,824 16,214 16,978 17,438 Price to book value 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Depreciation & Amortisation 5,183 5,618 5,995 6,219 6,380 EV/EBITDA 7.2 7.0 6.5 6.2 5.9 Operating Profit 8,347 8,732 9,724 10,255 10,538 EV/EBIT 12.0 11.8 10.8 10.2 9.7 Associate Income 403 425 413 421 429 FCF yield (%) 9.9% 10.6% 12.2% 13.2% 13.0% Net Interest 1,266 1,626 1,758 1,828 1,811 Dividend yield (%) 5.2% 5.3% 5.4% 5.6% 5.8% Profit before tax 6,547 7,485 7,607 8,128 8,428 Income Tax 1,719 2,088 2,434 2,682 2,865 Per share Minority Interests 753 847 828 869 888 Group Net profit 4,478 4,976 4,758 4,998 5,104 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E Recurrent EPS 2.11 1.89 2.12 2.20 2.24 Cashflow statement Reported EPS 2.03 2.19 2.09 2.20 2.24 in millions, year end Dec Reported DPS 1.47 1.50 1.54 1.59 1.64 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E Adjusted Free cash flow 2.92 3.02 3.48 3.77 3.70 EBITDA 14,012 14,824 16,214 16,978 17,438 Cash Tax Payable (1,377) (1,638) (2,226) (2,682) (2,865) Performance, leverage and return ratios Working Capital 1,988 (171) (385) (346) (218) % Cash flow from operations 13,627 12,587 13,505 13,843 14,231 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E Capex & Acquisitions -8,369 -9,228 -8,666 -7,701 -6,085 Gross operating margin 17.5% 18.4% 19.6% 19.3% 19.0% Cash from investing -8,369 -9,228 -8,666 -7,701 -6,085 Operating margin 10.4% 10.8% 11.7% 11.7% 11.5% Dividends paid (4,028) (3,950) (4,023) (4,155) (4,275) Operating profit growth y-o-y -2.5% 4.6% 11.4% 5.5% 2.8% Cash from financing -4,091 -5,576 -5,781 -5,983 -6,085 Recurrent Income growth y-o-y -1.5% -7.6% 12.1% 3.7% 2.1% Free Cash flow before dividends 10,426 10,781 11,892 12,669 12,632 Reported ROE 7.4% 8.0% 7.4% 7.6% 7.5% Free Cash Flow 6,398 6,831 7,868 8,514 8,358 ROCE (EBIT) 9.4% 9.2% 10.0% 10.3% 10.6% Net debt/ (equity+minorities) (%) 45.7% 48.0% 48.7% 46.8% 42.5% Balance Sheet Net debt /EBITDA 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 in millions, year end Dec EBITDA / net interest 11.1 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.6 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E Reported net income / dividends 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 Non Current assets 122,278 127,290 130,467 132,396 132,491 Current assets 49,146 47,145 46,872 48,484 51,662 Market valuation Total assets 171,424 174,435 177,338 180,880 184,153 in millions Total Debt 42,272 43,105 43,105 43,105 43,105 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E Shareholders' equity 65,527 67,761 69,752 72,252 74,691 Share price (year-end / current) 24.32 Other liabilities 29,838 30,288 30,496 30,496 30,496 Number of Shares (million) 2,261.0 2,261.0 2,261.0 2,261.0 2,261.0 Total liabilities 171,424 174,435 177,338 180,880 184,153 Market Capitalisation 64,370 64,370 64,370 64,370 64,370 Net debt 29,967 32,532 33,960 33,801 31,741 EV adjustment 51,085 53,819 55,248 55,088 53,029 Capital Employed 89,038 94,537 97,600 99,417 99,399 EV 100,435 103,170 104,598 104,439 102,379 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.

    This document is being provided for the exclusive use of UNIVERSIDAD ESAN at UNIVERSIDAD ESAN

  • 20

    Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    Edmund Reid (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    International Power: Summary of Financials Profit and Loss Statement Valuation ratios in millions, year end Dec FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E in millions, year end Dec FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E Sales 3,526 3,515 3,686 3,890 4,066 P/E (recurrent) - - - - - Gross Operating Profit - - - - - P/E (reported) 9.5 10.7 11.6 10.2 9.6 Depreciation & Amortisation 378 280 280 280 280 Price to book value - - - - - Operating Profit 907 844 755 819 828 EV/EBITDA 6.3 6.9 7.2 6.6 6.2 Associate Income 0 0 0 0 0 EV/EBIT 10.6 11.0 12.0 10.7 10.1 Net Interest (439) (398) (377) (352) (339) FCF yield (pre divs, post mins) (%) - - - - - Profit before tax 718 659 601 695 745 Dividend yield (%) - - - - - Income Tax (113) (114) (100) (131) (151) Minority Interests (97) (92) (80) (82) (78) Per share Discontinued items - - - - - Group Net profit 508 452 421 482 516 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E Recurrent EPS 33.39 29.48 27.30 31.02 32.84 Cashflow statement Reported EPS 33.39 29.48 27.30 31.02 32.97 in millions, year end Dec Reported DPS 13 13 13 13 13 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E Adjusted Free cash flow - - - - - Funds from operations - - - - - Working Capital 101 0 0 0 0 Performance, leverage and return ratios Cash flow from operations 629 1,116 1,023 1,084 1,119 % Capex & Acquisitions 441 -100 - - - FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E Other investing cash flows - - - - - Gross operating margin - - - - - Cash from investing - - - - - Operating margin - - - - - Dividends paid (195) (192) (193) (194) (205) Operating profit growth y-o-y 10.5% -7.0% -10.6% 8.5% 1.1% Cash from financing - - - - - Recurrent Income growth y-o-y - - - - - Free Cash flow before dividends - - - - - Reported ROE 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Free cash flow, adjusted - - - - - ROCE (EBIT) 5.1% 4.6% 4.0% - - Net debt/ (equity+minorities) (%) -99.3% -85.7% -75.8% -65.6% -56.4% Balance Sheet Net debt /EBITDA (%) 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.2 2.8 in millions, year end Dec EBITDA / net interest - - - - - FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E Reported net income / dividends - - - - - Net fixed assets - - - - - Current assets - - - - - Market valuation Total assets 11,255 11,296 11,350 11,414 11,509 in millions Total Debt - - - - - FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E Shareholders' equity 4,811 5,163 5,471 5,841 6,229 Share price (year-end / current) 317 Other liabilities - - - - - Number of Shares (million) 1,521.3 1,533.7 1,543.7 1,553.7 1,563.7 Total liabilities (6,154) (5,842) (5,589) (5,283) (4,989) Market Capitalisation - - - - - Net debt -5,059 -4,747 -4,494 -4,188 -3,864 EV adjustment - - - - - Capital Employed 9,871 9,912 9,966 10,030 10,095 EV 9,598 9,286 9,033 8,727 8,403 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.

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  • 21

    Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    Edmund Reid (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an AC on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an AC on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analysts compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report.

    Important Disclosures

    Market Maker/ Liquidity Provider: JPMSL and/or an affiliate is a market maker and/or liquidity provider in GDF SUEZ, International Power.

    Analyst Position: The following analysts (and/or their associates or household members) own a long position in the shares of International Power: Richard Stuber.

    Client of the Firm: GDF SUEZ is or was in the past 12 months a client of JPMSI; during the past 12 months, JPMSI provided to the company investment banking services, non-investment banking securities-related services and non-securities-related services. International Power is or was in the past 12 months a client of JPMSI; during the past 12 months, JPMSI provided to the company non-investment banking securities-related services and non-securities-related services.

    Investment Banking (past 12 months): JPMSI or its affiliates received in the past 12 months compensation for investment banking services from GDF SUEZ.

    Investment Banking (next 3 months): JPMSI or its affiliates expect to receive, or intend to seek, compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from GDF SUEZ, International Power.

    Non-Investment Banking Compensation: JPMSI has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from GDF SUEZ, International Power. An affiliate of JPMSI has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from GDF SUEZ, International Power.

    Broker: J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. and/or an affiliate acts as Corporate Broker to International Power.

    0

    12

    24

    36

    48

    60

    72

    Price()

    Sep06

    Jun07

    Mar08

    Dec08

    Sep09

    Jun10

    GDF SUEZ (GSZ.PA) Price Chart

    N 33 OW 33

    Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends.Break in coverage Jul 22, 2008 - Sep 02, 2009. This chart shows J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of this stock; thecurrent analyst may or may not have covered it over the entire period.J.P. Morgan ratings: OW = Overweight, N = Neutral, UW = Underweight.

    Date Rating Share Price ()

    Price Target ()

    02-Sep-09 N 28.86 33.00 19-Feb-10 OW 27.20 33.00

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  • 22

    Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    Edmund Reid (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    0

    114

    228

    342

    456

    570

    684

    798

    Price(p)

    Feb07

    May07

    Aug07

    Nov07

    Feb08

    May08

    Aug08

    Nov08

    Feb09

    May09

    Aug09

    Nov09

    Feb10

    May10

    International Power (IPR.L) Price Chart

    OW 520p OW 360p N 345p

    OW 540p OW 370p N 340p

    OW 410pOW 470p OW 539.99p OW 400p OW 350p OW

    Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends.Break in coverage Jul 11, 2008 - Jul 16, 2008, and Feb 26, 2010 - Mar 01, 2010. This chart shows J.P. Morgan'scontinuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst may or may not have covered it over the entire period.J.P. Morgan ratings: OW = Overweight, N = Neutral, UW = Underweight.

    Date Rating Share Price (p)

    Price Target (p)

    07-Mar-07 OW 376 410 01-Aug-07 OW 414 470 02-Jul-08 OW 436 540 16-Jul-08 OW 419 540 08-Sep-08 OW 363 520 17-Nov-08 OW 263 400 16-Jan-09 OW 257 370 19-Mar-09 OW 210 360 20-Jul-09 OW 251 350 01-Mar-10 OW 324 -- 26-Mar-10 N 330 340 08-Jul-10 N 315 345

    Explanation of Equity Research Ratings and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe: J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe.] J.P. Morgan Cazenoves UK Small/Mid-Cap dedicated research analysts use the same rating categories; however, each stocks expected total return is compared to the expected total return of the FTSE All Share Index, not to those analysts coverage universe. A list of these analysts is available on request. The analyst or analysts teams coverage universe is the sector and/or country shown on the cover of each publication. See below for the specific stocks in the certifying analyst(s) coverage universe.

    Coverage Universe: Edmund Reid: Centrica (CNA.L), Drax (DRX.L), International Power (IPR.L), National Grid (NG.L), Pennon (PNN.L), Scottish & Southern Energy (SSE.L), Severn Trent (SVT.L), United Utilities (UU.L)

    J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of June 30, 2010

    Overweight (buy)

    Neutral (hold)

    Underweight (sell)

    JPM Global Equity Research Coverage 46% 42% 12% IB clients* 49% 46% 31% JPMSI Equity Research Coverage 44% 48% 9% IB clients* 68% 61% 53%

    *Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. For purposes only of NASD/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category.

    Valuation and Risks: Please see the most recent company-specific research report for an analysis of valuation methodology and risks on any securities recommended herein. Research is available at http://www.morganmarkets.com , or you can contact the analyst named on the front of this note or your J.P. Morgan representative.

    Analysts Compensation: The equity research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues, which include revenues from, among other business units, Institutional Equities and Investment Banking.

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    Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    Edmund Reid (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    Registration of non-US Analysts: Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed on the front of this report are employees of non-US affiliates of JPMSI, are not registered/qualified as research analysts under NASD/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons of JPMSI, and may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

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  • 24

    Europe Equity Research 20 July 2010

    Edmund Reid (44-20) 7155 6676 [email protected]

    http://www.hkex.com.hk/prod/dw/Lp.htm. Japan: There is a risk that a loss may occur due to a change in the price of the shares in the case of share trading, and that a loss may occur due to the exchange rate in the case of foreign share trading. In the case of share trading, JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., will be receiving a brokerage fee and consumption tax (shouhizei) calculated by multiplying the executed price by the commission rate which was individually agreed between JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., and the customer in advance. Financial Instruments Firms: JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., Kanto Local Finance Bureau (kinsho) No. 82 Participating Association / Japan Securities Dealers Association, The Financial Futures Association of Japan. Korea: This report may have been edited or contributed to from time to time by affiliates of J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Ltd, Seoul Branch. Singapore: JPMSS and/or its affiliates may have a holding in any of the securities discussed in this report; for securities where the holding is 1% or greater, the specific holding is disclosed in the Important Disclosures section above. India: For private circulation only, not for sale. Pakistan: For private circulation only, not for sale. New Zealand: This material is issued and distributed by JPMSAL in New Zealand only to persons whose principal business is the investment of money or who, in the course of and for the purposes of their business, habitually invest money. JPMSAL does not issue or distribute this material to members of "the public" as determined in accordance with section 3 of the Securities Act 1978. The recipient of this material must not distribute it to any third party or outside New Zealand without the prior written consent of JPMSAL. Canada: The information contained herein is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, a prospectus, an advertisement, a public offering, an offer to sell securities described herein, or solicitation of an offer to buy securities described herein, in Canada or any province or territory thereof. Any offer or sale of the securities described herein in Canada will be made only under an exemption from the requirements to file a prospectus with the relevant Canadian securities regulators and only by a dealer properly registered under applicable securities laws or, alternatively, pursuant to an exemption from the dealer registration requirement in the relevant province or territory of Canada in which such offer or sale is made. The information contained herein is under no circumstances to be construed as investment advice in any province or territory of Canada and is not tailored to the needs of the recipient. To the extent that the information contained herein references securities of an issuer incorporated, formed or created under the laws of Canada or a province or territory of Canada, any trades in such securities must be conducted through a dealer registered in Canada. No securities commission or similar regulatory authority in Canada has reviewed or in any way passed judgment upon these materials, the information contained herein or the merits of the securities described herein, and any representation to the contrary is an offence. Dubai: This report has been issued to persons regarded as professional clients as defined under the DFSA rules.

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    Other Disclosures last revised March 1, 2010.

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