Energy storage and flexible generation to support variable
renewable energy, diversification, grid services and resiliencein South Africa
A dialogue hosted by Nedbank, EE Business Intelligence and JCSE at Wits University
DATE: Thursday 19 November 2020TIME: 12h00 to 14h30
Presentation 1by
Mr Clyde MallinsonConsultant
Energy storage and flexible generation to support variable
renewable energy, diversification, grid services and resilience
Presentation 2by
Crescent MushwanaCSIR Energy Centre
Energy storage and flexible generation to support variable
renewable energy, diversification, grid services and resilience
Grid reliability in a system dominated by VRE,
supported by pumped storage, gas and BESS
Energy storage & flexible generation to support variable
renewable energy, diversification, grid services & resilience in SA
4th Fourth webinar hosted by Nedbank, EE Business Intelligence and
JCSE, Wits University
19 November 2020
Crescent MushwanaREV 1
‹#›
Agenda
• Power system Reliability
• Solar PV and wind resources in South Africa
• The energy mix: solar PV, wind, storage and gas in the IRP
• High level transmission developments as per TDP
• Solar PV and wind statistics of installed power plants
36
Power system reliabilitySystem reliability is about satisfying the load requires in a economical way with while
assuring supply continuity and quality
Power System Reliability
System Adequacy
(Supply vs load balance; grid capacity)
System Security
(System Stability; responding to disturbances)
Grid Codes, Regulations, Supply standards (SAIDI, SAIFI, CAIDI) etc.
MTSAO and other operational guidelines
Grid Expansion Plans and Reliability projects
Sources: Basic Power System Reliability Concepts-Roy Billinton; CSIR analysisNotes: SAIDI – System Average Interruption Duration Index, SAIFI – System Average Interruption Frequency Index, CAIDI – Customer Average Interruption Duration Index,
MTSAO – Medium Term System Adequacy Outlook
37
Solar and wind resources in SASouth Africa has excellent wind and solar resources.
Sources: https://solargis.com/maps-and-gis-data, http://www.wasaproject.info/, CSIR analysis
To download high resolution wind data for South Africa visit: http://www.wasaproject.info
38
Solar and wind potential in REDZThe wind and solar PV resource potential in SA is so huge that even by 2050 country will not have used
even 20% of the potential, all this without compromising the environment and land use in general
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34-36
-34
-32
-30
-28
-26
-24
-22
Johannesburg
Cape Town
Durban
Upington
Port Elizabeth
Bloemfontein
Polokwane
Johannesburg
Cape Town
Durban
Upington
Port Elizabeth
Bloemfontein
Polokwane
Longitude
Latitu
de
EIA: Onshore Wind
EIA: Solar PV
REDZ
EIA applications: estimated Wind (90), PV(330); land use is roughly 1.21% of SA landREDZ: estimated Wind (530 GW), PV (1780 GW); land use is roughly 4.4% of SA land
Sources: CSIR - Wind and solar resource aggregation study (https://www.csir.co.za/study-shows-abundance-wind-and-solar-resources-south-africa)Note: EIA – Environmental Impact Assessment; REDZ – Renewable Energy Development Zone
All EIAs application areas:(status early 2016)Wind: 90 GWSolar PV: 330 GW
Latest info/reports and data download on REDZ for wind and solar PV can be obtained from: https://egis.environment.gov.za/redz
39
Solar PV and wind in the IRPNew capacity: solar PV (6 GW), wind (14.4 GW), storage (2 GW),
Gas (3 GW) – flexibility requirements starting to feature in the energy mix
Sources: DMRE, IRP 2019
40
IRP beyond 2030Wind and solar PV build limits, storage requirements and gas
• Solar PV and wind annual build limits: “In the long run and taking into account the
policy of a diversified energy mix, the annual build limits will have to be reviewed in
line with demand and supply requirement.” (DMRE, IRP 2019)
• “When energy storage costs were revised to the latest information, and taking into
account the longer gas infrastructure lead time, the power system selects more
energy storage. This can be expected, given the extent of the wind and solar PV
option in the IRP.” (DMRE, IRP 2019)
• “It must be noted that that the unconstrained gas is a ‘no regret option’ because the
power system calls for increased gas volumes when there are no constraints
imposed.” (DMRE, IRP 2019)
These statements extracted from the IRP 2019 clearly show that South Africa’s the future is high VRE shares coupled with storage and flexibility
41
Future energy systems will be built around
variability of solar PV & windActual scaled RSA demand & simulated 15-minute solar PV/wind power supply for
week from 15-21 Aug ‘11
Day of the week
SaturdayWednesday Thursday FridayMonday Tuesday Sunday
Excess Solar PV/Wind
Residual Load (flexible power)
Useful Wind
Useful Solar PV
Sources: CSIR analysis
Electricity Demand
42
Powers system stabilityBoth strong and weak power systems will experience stability issues
when high VRE shares are introduced
Power system stability is the ability of an electric power system, for a given initial operating condition, to regain a state of operating equilibrium after being subjected to a physical disturbance, with most of the system variables bounded so that practically the entire system remains intact” (IEEE/CIGRE) Primary focus
in strong systems
Common focus in weaker systems
43
Power system stability issuesSolutions to current and imminent stability issues exist and can be applied
Source: GIZ, “IRP2016: Discussion of potential limits to variable renewable energy installations,” 2017.
44
Storage and flexibility are criticalStorage and flexibility is about the functionality required buy the power system and thus should not be
boxed to certain technologies
• High shares of VRE results in high level ramping
requirements on the on the conventional power plant
• “Storage increases the technical reliability of the power
supply, stabilizes the cost of electricity and helps to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions.” (DNVGL)
• Storage, if properly sized as part VRE (wind or solar PV)
plant, can introduce a certain level of despatchability to
VRE
Sources: Energy Vault- https://www.startup.ch/EnergyVault; PHS - Reserchgate.net; FESS - https://doi.org/10.3390/app7030286
Flywheel Energy Storage System (FESS)
Pumped Hydro Storage (PHS)
Energy Vault storage system
45
Selected energy storage technologies' capabilityFocus is on bulk energy storage technologies with capacities 20 MW and above
Source: https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/energy-storage-2019
46
Eskom Transmission Grid The grid is continuously being expanded and strengthened to meet a set reliability standards,
and flexibility and storage projects will be undoubtedly be added to the strengthening projects
Source: Eskom TDP, 2021-2030.
47
RE statistics for South Africa in 2019RE integration into the grid has been steadily increasing in South Africa since 2013, but from 2017 to
2019, there’s be no growth at all due to the halting of the REIPPPP, but things are poised to change
Source: Eskom, DMRE IPPO, CSIR Analysis
48
RE statistics for South Africa in 2019The performance of both solar PV and wind has met and exceeded expectations (especially wind) with
capacity factors showing minimal seasonal effects.
Source: Eskom, CSIR Analysis
49
RE statistics for South Africa in 2019Actual monthly average diurnal profiles of RE, showing a consistent supply profile; this performance
points the way to what the future energy system’s bulk supply profile will look like.
Source: Eskom, CSIR Analysis
50
RE statistics for South Africa in 2019RE plants contribute to both morning and evening peak demand, therefore they do not only meet their
energy requirements but also alleviate pressure on the system during constrained periods.
Source: Eskom, CSIR Analysis
51
In Conclusion: It is established that our future energy
systems will be built around variability of solar PV & windTechnologies and systems developed on the supply and demand side will be due electricity being the primary driver
supplied by wind and solar PV as bulk energy providers opening up opportunities for green H2 production etc.
Day of the week
SaturdayWednesday Thursday FridayMonday Tuesday Sunday
Excess Solar PV/Wind
Residual Load (flexible power)
Useful Wind
Useful Solar PV
Sources: CSIR analysis
Electricity Demand
Presentation 3by
Mr Frederic VerdolWorld Bank
Energy storage and flexible generation to support variable
renewable energy, diversification, grid services and resilience
NEDBANK / EEBI / JCSE / WITS WEBINAR
BATTERY STORAGE DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA
Johannesburg Frederic Verdol
November 19, 2020 Senior Power Engineer
PRESENTATION OUTLINE
1. World Bank Support to Battery Storage Technology
2. Making The Case for Battery Storage in South Africa
3. Eskom Battery Storage Demonstration Program
4. Conclusion
1
What Happened Since WB Announced US$1bn Support to Battery Storage
Technology in 2018 ?
3
Marshall
Islands/Micronesia/Tuvalu
IDA
Solar+batteries for
sustainability and resilience
India
IBRD/CTF
Solar+wind+
batteries hybrids
CAR
IDA
Solar+batteries
emergency power in
FCV
Comoros
IDA ($40m)
Solar PV + Storage
for resilience
Guinea-Bissau
IDA (Proj. Prep.)Solar+batteries for
energy security
Board approved/
ActivePipeline
Indonesia
CTF (Proj. Prep.)
Solar+batteries in
smaller islands
IDA/IBRD pipeline: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, India, Maldives, Mali, Mongolia, Mexico,
Nicaragua, Pacific Islands, Senegal, Sri Lanka, The Gambia, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, Uzbekistan,
WAPP, Zanzibar
Grid integration/feasibility studies for optimal placement of batteries and auction preparations for
Hybrid Solar Parks (PV+batteries)
Haiti
IDA/SREP
Solar+batteries for
resilience
5000 minigrids with batteries in pipeline, under construction or commissioned for $710m
IDA/IBRD/CTF/SREP/GEF/CIF approved and $380m IDA/IBRD/CTF/SREP/GEF/CIF pipeline
The Gambia
IDA
Solar+batteries for
grid integration
Maldives
IDA+CTF
BESS for VRE
Integration
South Africa
IBRD/CTF
Grid batteries for
transmission deferral
and grid integration
China
IBRD
Battery storage for
grid integration
ECOWAS
IDA+CTF (Proj. Prep.)Battery storage for
grid support
Zanzibar
IDA+CTF (Proj. Prep.)
Battery storage for
VRE integration
Vietnam
CTF (Proj. Prep.)
BESS for VRE
integration
Ukraine
CTF (Proj. Prep.)
Standalone
batteries for
frequency regulation
Bangladesh
IDA+CTF (Proj.
Prep.)
Distribution-level
BESS
Burkina Faso/Mali
IDA+CTF (Proj. Prep.)Regional hybrid
Solar+BESS park
Tunisia
CTF (Proj. Prep.)
Dispatchable Solar
Power
WB Energy Storage Partnership (ESP) : A Global Platform to Share Practices
4
ESP
1. Power
systems
2. Testbed and
testing
protocols
3. Training and capacity building
4. Flexible
sector
coupling
5.
Decentralized
energy
storage
solutions
6. Enabling
policies and
procurement
frameworks
7. Reuse and
recycling of
batteries
58
NREL
NREL
NREL
Knowledge Sharing will be Key to Advance Battery Deployment
5
https://www.esmap.org/publications
https://www.linkedin.com/company/energy-storage-partnership
Grid Scale Battery Storage Technology Now Beyond Test Phase7,000+ MW in Operation, 15,000+ MW under Construction, Large Programs in most of Large Utilities
National Grid
(UK)
• Frequency
• Auctions
• 201 MW (2019)
• 8 Sites
EDF (World)
• Wind/Solar
• Program
• 10 GW (2030)
• 300 MW (2018)
PSC (NY)
• Re-purposing
• Program
• 316 MW (2020)
• 3000 MW (2030
Neoen (Australia)
• Wind
• 1 site
• 100 MW (2017)
• 50MW (2020)
Utilities (CA)
• Wind/Solar
• 360 MW (2018)
• 195 MW (2020)
• 182 MW (2020)
• 100 MW (2021)
KEPCO
(South Korea)
• Frequency
• Program
• 500 MW (2018)
• Multi-site
FP&L (FL)
• VRE Solar
• 409 MW (2021)
• 1 Site
7
Huanghe Hydro
(Qinghai Province)
• 2.2GW Solar
• 1 Site…
• 208 MW (2020)
• 10-month EPC
AES (Chile)
• 253MW Solar
• 112 MW (2021)
• 1 Site
Viable Energy Storage Applications
in South Africa Grids
• PV/Wind Integration and management
• Re-purposing of closing coal sites
• Better economic dispatch of thermal assets (CO2 savings)
• Less reliance on peakers (OCGT)
• Imports of cheap Hydropower
• Grid investment deferral (Tx and Dx)
• Grid stability (inertia, voltage and frequency control, local, national)
• Better integration of rooftop PV
• Back-up for Commercial customers
• Management of Prosumers
• Security of Supply for strategic customers
• Universal access to remote communities
8
Battery Storage, a Key Enabler for SA Post-Covid Green Economic Recovery Energy Storage provides the needed Flexibility for a SA Economy Recovery, Transition and Modernization
South Africa Can Be in All Segments of the Battery Storage Value ChainSupport to battery technology is meeting consensus across all stakeholders in South Africa
Battery Storage Value Chain Scale Up Potential (Global)
• Global Battery Value Chain Scale up by 2030 (Source: WEF / Global Battery Alliance report, Sept. 2019) :
• Battery Storage Global Investments to reach $620 billion by 2040 (Forbes, June 2019)
Support Battery Storage Value Chain Development in South Africa is getting traction
• Preparation of enabling environment for battery storage industrialization (DTI, NT, DEFF, NERSA, IDC)
• Battery Storage targets in the IRP, proposals including storage from the private sector (RMI4P RFI).
• Need to develop strategic cooperation with manufacturing countries but also with mineral rich neighboring countries
9
2021
2022
Clean
Energy
Enabled
100 MW
Wind
Eskom Sere Wind (Multidonors financed)
80MW/320MWh Storage
equivalent capacity
- Displaced integration
- Curtailment Avoided
Min. 53 ktCO2
offset yearly
Eskom Battery Storage Program will Enable VRE Integration
Min. 133 ktCO2
offset yearly
New Wind/Solar Capacity (Private sector)
200 MW
Solar CSP
REIPPP Round 3.5(Private sector)
415 MW
Solar PV676 MW
Wind
- Coal Repurposing Program
- Intermittency Mitigated
- Displaced energy
500MWh/d Storage
equivalent on 7-8 sites
- Intermittency Mitigated
- Displaced energy
- Grid investment deferral
Selected sites for battery storage
Min. 212 ktCO2
offset yearly
640 MWh/d of Storage
equivalent (phase 2)
- Resilience in Remote Area
- Displaced energy
60 MW
Solar PV
Eskom distributed PV (Eskom financed)
Min. 80 ktCO2
offset yearly
60 MW of Eskom PV
capacity
11
Expected Benefits for SA, beyond The Eskom Program
Demonstration Effect, Transformational Potential
Utility perspective
• From a ‘traditional’ electricity producer to a modern energy manager function
• With incoming Wind and Solar IPPs by 2021, good timing to acquire ‘plug and play’ tools for Grid stability and re-skilling critical mass of utility staff
• Lessons from large-scale battery program useful to better integrate future decentralized / rooftop solar capacity
• More flexibility and more dispatchable clean energy thanks to the batteries, allowing to decommission old coal plants
South Africa perspective
• In a period of economic recovery, reliability of electricity supply is critical to attract private investment (industry, manufacturing)
• Scale up of battery technology to complement rapid expansion of least cost energy, critical for SA’s Recovery
• South Africa may be the only country in Africa where Integration and industrialization in the entire battery storage value chain (mining, manufacturing, operation) is feasible.
Africa region and Global perspective
• Over 6,000MW grid-scale batteries in operation worldwide, But NO battery connected to a grid in Africa
• Demonstration effect in South Africa will enable battery technology to expand faster in Africa (market pioneer advantage).
12
Main Messages
1. WBG will invest in 17.5 GWh of Battery Storage by 2025
2. In a polarized SA Energy sector, Battery Storage makes consensus
3. Eskom Battery Storage Program already bearing fruits
4. Need for an Integrated SA Battery Storage Value Chain Strategy
14
Presentation 4by
Mr Alessandro SessaEnel Green Power
Energy storage and flexible generation to support variable
renewable energy, diversification, grid services and resilience
November 19th, 2020
Enel Green PowerAn international perspective on energy storage and flexible generation to support variable renewable energy, diversification, grid services and resilience
4th Nedbank EEBI JCSE webinar
70 mn customers
Largest retail customer base worldwide
73 mn end users
1st network operator
32 countries
Active in 5 continents
46 GW capacity
World’s largest player in renewables
42%
21%
29%
5% 3%
26%
1%
46%
18%
9%
17.9 €bn 17.9 €bn
ItalyIberiaLatin America
RoW4
North AmericaNetworksEnel Green PowerConventional generation
Enel X
Retail
Enel GroupThe leading global utility today
72
2019 EBITDA by business and by geography
Lusaka
Johannesburg
Nairobi
Casablanca
Enel Green Power in Sub-Saharan AfricaWhere we are
Country of presence
Country under development
Offices: ~ 170 employeesEnel Green Power RSA (Pty) Ltd
522 MW operation solar PV and wind
705 MW wind in construction
34 MW
Solar PV
COUNTRY OF PRESENCE
South Africa
Namibia
Kenya Zambia
COUNTRY UNDER DEVELOPMENT
Senegal EthiopiaIvory CoastGhana Tanzania BotswanaMozambique Uganda Rwanda
90% Historically
Disadvantaged Groups
~50% Women
73
ERCOT - USA
74
Enel Green Power Energy Storage Footprint
Microgrid
ITALY
1) Energy arbitrage
2) Resource adequacy
3) Primary reserve substitution
SPAIN
1) FEDER tender
2) Imbalance costs saving
3) Curtailment reduction
4) Energy arbitrage
PORTUGAL
1) Ancillary services
2) Resource adequacy
Microgrid
ETHIOPIAProjects under development
Projects In Execution or In
Operation519 MW
7.3 GW*
Committed projects and BESS in operations
PERU
Primary reserve
substitution
1) Spinning Reserve
2) Offtake risk mitigation
*including Phase Zero projects. As of Oct. 2020
488MW
15MW
7MW
COLOMBIA
Primary reserve
substitution
0.4MW
CHILE
0.2MW
68MW
32MW
23MW
75
1. An ancillary technology which enables RES to overcome
their residual intrinsic limitations in terms
of flexibility and dispatchability
2. It allows to reduce the risk profile of
investments both in terms of market
and regulatory risks (congestions,
imbalances, etc..)
3. It enables RES to provide additional
services both to grid and offtakers,
entering into new «blue ocean» markets
Why Renewables coupled with Storage?
+
Strategic Rationale of Energy Storage in EGP
Strong benefits of joint
development captured
through cost and
business synergies
76
Value drivers Where it is relevant
Improving
overall
investment
return
RES risk
mitigation
Business
enabler
▪ Markets with:
➢ Scarce system adequacy (and presence of capacity payments)
➢ Well developed ancillary services’ market allowing stacked
reserves
➢ Specific long term remuneration mechanism for RES+BESS
projects
▪ Markets with stringent requirements/penalties for RES generators
and/or high “base” risk (e.g. network congestions)
▪ Storage included as mandatory on regulated tenders for new RES
capacity or under a specific support scheme
▪ Replacement of Thermal power plants for Peak/firm generation
▪ Storage as critical factor to access at Subsidized Financing
▪ Generate additional margins for the integrated project through:
➢ Capacity payments for system adequacy
➢ Ancillary services
➢ Environmental attributes multipliers
250360
USA
Solar
USA Wind
Delta IRR RES+BESS vs RES only (bps)
▪ Reduce “base” risk, balancing costs/penalties and avoid curtailments;
USA
Wind
22%
Australia
Solar
USA Solar
4%8% 7%
12%
7%
RES Only
RES+BESS
Risk (relative sigmaIRR)Spread over Ke (bps)
RES Only RES + BESS
WORST BASE BEST
-294 19-14 8513 127
EU grants
RES + BESS tenders
Strategic rationale for storage addition on RES projects
▪ Countries with no market mechanisms that use
tenders to supply required services
▪ Countries introducing incentives to facilitate
energy transition
77
New technologies will play a key role in the S/D balance of electric systems all over the world
Flexible Capacity cumulated installation (GW)
Highlights
▪ “Renewables now cheapest across two-thirds of the world. By 2030
they undercut existing coal and gas almost everywhere.” (Key message
of BNEO ’19).
▪ The strong penetration of renewable energy will increase the need of
flexibility in the power systems. Storage and dynamic demand (demand
response, dynamic EV charging) will have to be deployed in order to:
o Compensate the intermittency of RES production;
o Shift bulk energy production in excess;
o Reduce the ramp-up of peakers at sunset;
▪ BESS will also contribute to system security and efficiency by providing
ancillary services to the grid at a lower cost compared to TPPs due to zero
downtime, start-up/shut down and ramping costs.
Typical hourly dispatch* in 2040 (GW)
722
71
Year
289
1.323
2020 2030 2040 2050
Small-scale batteries
Utility-scale batteries
Demand-side flexibility
* Source: BNEF New Energy Outlook 2019
Midwest
Energy Storage costs trends
78
The declining capex during last years and analysts consensus
457387
261 245 228194
157 132 118 107
73
126
5251
50
47
4238
35 34
6968
4342
41
38
3532
31
2016
234
338
2030
30
2022202020182017 20262019 2024 2028
319
203
599581
357
278
184 170
-47%
-47%
BESS turnkey BOP, Master Scada & EMS Other costs
736
527491
461 431365
292245 221 203
73
126
7371
71
65
58
5349
46
138
129
123122
119
113
107
103101
99
2022
654
2016 2017 20202018 2019 2026
371
2024 2028
348
687
2030
621
947
401
782
543
457
-34%
-44%
$/kWh
$/kWh
Battery pricing has shown a steep decline over the recent years and is expected to further decrease over time due to technology improvements,
manufacturing scale and competition between suppliers
Energy intensive – Load Shifting (C-rate:0.25)* Power Intensive - Ancillary services (C-rate:4)**
* BNEF projection for BESS 20MW/80MWh ** BNEF projection for BESS 40MW/20MWh
1 2
Batteries are well suited to provide a very large range of services both to host plant and the grid
Unbalancing
Cost
Reduction
Curtailment
Avoidance
Energy
Shifting
Profile
Firming
Basis Risk
Reduction
Spinning
Reserve
Resource
Adequacy
Frequency
regulation
Primary
Regulation
Substitution
Hours
Grid
event
MW
Offset of deviations between forecast and
actual real time production to minimize
balancing chargesHours
MW
Mitigation of basis risk between nodal and
nearest liquidly traded hub price through
energy shifting into the minimum price
differential.Hours
Hedging
Price
Captured
Price
Forecasted price Realized price
Production
Hours
MW
Time matching of the offtaker load profile
Hours
MW
Baseload
Release of host plant capacity otherwise
locked for mandatory primary reserve
provision.
Ancillary service: frequency regulation
service used to control the grid frequency
within operating bands
RES+BESS
THERMAL+BESS
HIGH – Anchor application
MEDIUM – Need of revenue stacking
PROFITABILITY
LOW – low profitable
CONFIGURATION
Peaking
CapacityMW
Hour
ALL MARKETS
WITH HOURLY
POWER PRICES
Capacity payment recognized for contribution
to system adequacy
Ancillary service: reserve provided online
resources of fast ramping units
Remuneration mechanism incentivizing
energy output during specific hours
Recovery of plant production otherwise lost
during a grid curtailment event
Shift of plant production to high priced hours
Voltage
Control and
Black Start
• Voltage control: through BESS reactive
power provision.
• Black Start: ancillary service used to restore
system after black-out
Higher value creation for services requiring high flexibility
and fast response capabilities
An
ch
or
ap
plic
ati
on
s
Energy storage and flexible generation to support variable
renewable energy, diversification, grid services and resiliencein South Africa
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Energy storage and flexible generation to support variable
renewable energy, diversification, grid services and resiliencein South Africa
Question and Answer session