Endegenous Variables y6 pRF pRT PCIM PCDP Total Availability

Less Total Requirements

(PCIM +PCDP) -Y6

Subsistence

Production lessTotal Requirement

(PCDP-Y6)

Units Kgs/

CapitaSo.Shs/

KgSo.Shs/

Kg

Kgs/

Capita

Kgs/

CapitaKgs/Capita Kgs/Capita

Base Period Values 1983 117.49 2.14 5.50 51.29 72.44 (+) 6.24 (a) / (-) 45.05 (b) /

Effect

AssumptionsTotal Multipliers - Assumptions and Effects

Increasein the GNP/C by 10%

115.61 1.66 3.96 26.79 271.64 (+) 182.82 (+) 156.03

Increasein y5 by 8%

124.17 2.05 2.34 48.08 84.72 (+) 8.63 (-) 39.45

Decreaseof Y5 by 6%

104.95 1.99 2.13 14.83 175.39 (+) 71.92 (+) 70.44

Increasein Y10 by 15%

115.08 1.67 2.52 24.16 116.95 (+) 26.03 (+) 1.87

Simultaneousshock of

a) Increase in GNP/C = 10%b) Increase in Y10 = 15%

andc) Decrease in y5= 8%

102.57 1.72 2.62 33.42 387.26 (+) 318.11 (+) 284.69

30

3.4.2. Comparison between Impact and Total Multiplier Effects on endogenousvariables: Table 4 describes the level of endogenous variables under the fivedifferent assumptions. The coefficient estimates reflect the adjustment that wouldtake place with respect to each endogenous variable summed over the entireperiod. Compared with single-period shock contained in the impact multipliers,results in this section reflect the long-run dynamics of change that could take placeunder the assumptions listed.

TABLE 4

, MODEL III: TOTAL MULTIPLIER EFFECTS OF

CHANGES IN THE DECISION VARIABLES ON CEREAL REQUIREMENTS,

PRICES, IMPORTS AND DOMESTIC PORODUCTION

a /: (+) signs denote excess of total availability or domestic production over total requirement (Y6)b /: Where a negative sign (-) appears, the reverse condition prevails.