2020 Mobile Source Strategy:A Vision for Clean Air
Informational UpdateApril 23, 2020
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2020 Mobile Source Strategy:A Vision for Clean Air
• Builds on 2016 Mobile Source Strategy• Conceptual scenario approach• Identifies potential technology mixes
needed to meet air quality and climate targets
• Meets SB 44 requirements• Informs policy development
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Addressing Multiple Goals
2023: South
Coast & SJV
Ozone
2024/25: AB 617
Communities South Coast
& SJV PM2.5
2030: GHG
40 percent below 1990
2031: South
Coast & SJV
Ozone
2037: South
Coast & SJV
Ozone
2045: Carbon
Neutrality
2050: GHG
80 percent below 1990
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Prioritizing Benefits to Disadvantaged Communities (DACs)
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• DACs and people of color are disproportionately affected by mobile pollution
• Develop scenarios with focus on benefits in DACs
• Seek rapid transition to zero-emission technology in and near DACs
• Complement AB 617 strategies
Mobile Source Contribution
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Areawide3%
Mobile80%
Stationary17%
2017 Statewide NOx EmissionsTotal = 1294 tons per day
Transportation40%
Electric Power15%
Industrial21%
Commercial & Residential
10%
Agriculture7%
High GWP5%
Recycling & Waste
2%
2017 Statewide GHG EmissionsTotal = 424 MMTCO2e
2016 Mobile Source Strategy
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Regulatory Progress
Regulation AdoptedPhase 2 GHG Standards for Medium/ Heavy-Duty Vehicles
Feb 2018
Lower Opacity Limits for HD Vehicles May 2018
Amended Warranty Requirements for HD Vehicles
June 2018
Innovative Clean Transit Dec 2018
Zero-Emission Airport Shuttle Buses June 2019
Regulations In Development
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Regulation Progress Anticipated Consideration
Ocean Going Vessels – At Berth 1st hearing Dec 2019 Spring 2020Advanced Clean Trucks 1st hearing Dec 2019 Spring 2020Heavy-Duty Low-NOx Omnibus Workshops since 2016 Mid 2020Transport Refrigeration Units Workshops since 2016 Late 2020Small Off-Road Engines Workshops since 2016
Evap Reg amended 11/2016Late 2020
Heavy-Duty I/M Workshops since 2019 2021Advanced Clean Cars 2 In Development 2021
Low-Emission Diesel Requirement Workshops since 2019 2021
On-Road Vehicles
8
Areawide3%
Stationary17%
Light Duty Vehicles13%
MediuVeh
6
Heavy Duty Vehicles
26%
Off-Road Mobile35%
Statewide NOx Emissions
im Duty cles%
Light Duty Vehicles28%
Medium Duty Vehicles2%
Heavy Duty Vehicles7%
Off-Road Mobile4%
Other Sectors(industrial, electricity
generation. etc.)59%
Statewide GHG Emissions
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Current Scenario for Light-Duty• 100% sales ZEVs & PHEVs by 2035; Does not go far enough• Staff continue to evaluate more ambitious ZEV sales scenarios
and the impact of high mileage vehicles
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Hea
vy-d
uty
Vehi
cle
Popu
latio
n (th
ousa
nds)
2010 Cert.
2045
Sales&
Accelerated Turnover
31%44%
23%21%
24%76%
Low-NOxHD ZEV & Accelerated Turnover
HD ZEV
2031 2037
Heavy-Duty Technology Mix Needed
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Heavy-Duty Vehicle Strategies
• Aggressive ZEV penetration and accelerated turnoverof older vehicles
• Cleaner diesel technology (Low-NOx Standard)• In-use performance measures (Heavy-Duty Inspection
and Maintenance Program)• Continued energy efficiency improvements• Renewable fuels where electrification is not feasible
26%
NOx
7%GHG
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Medium-Duty Vehicle Strategies
• ZEV penetration• Enhanced LEV regulations Advanced Clean Cars 2 – Post 2025 automaker rules
• Continued energy efficiency improvements
6% 2%
GHGNOx
Light-Duty Vehicle Strategies
• Aggressive ZEV penetration• Enhanced ZEV and LEV regulations Advanced Clean Cars 2 Clean Miles Standard (SB 1014) – Reducing GHG emissions
from ride hailing
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13%NOx 28%
GHG
Off-Road Sector
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• Off-road NOx is 35 percent of total, expected to grow to become the largest share by 2022
• Off-road annual diesel consumption will reach 2.13 billion gallons by 2045
On-Road 45%
Stationary & Area 20%
Construction, Industrial &
MiningAgriculture
Aircraft
Locomotive PleasureC
raft
PortableEquip.
OceanGoing Vessel
Com
mercial
Harbor C
raftTRU
Small
Off-R
oad
CHE
Off-Road Engine Strategies
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• Zero-emission technology wherever possible• Remaining combustion engines as low-emitting as
technically feasible Tier 5, OBD and GHG standard
• Accelerated turnover of older equipment to cleanestavailable technology
• Retrofit with after-treatment technologies• Renewable fuels where electrification is not feasible
Energy and Infrastructure Needs• Zero-emission technology for both on- and
off-road sectors requires streamlinedinfrastructure build-out
• AB 2127: CEC preparing infrastructureassessment for meeting 2030 ZEV and GHGgoals
• Significant investments being made ininfrastructure
• Staff is coordinating with CEC and CPUC onassessment of infrastructure needs
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Timeline for Completing 2020 MSS
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Scenario Modeling Ongoing
Public Webinar March 2020
Informational Update to the Board April 2020
Release Draft Document Fall 2020
Board Consideration Late 2020
Public Webinar Feedback
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What will CARB do if incentive funding does not materialize?
What renewable fuels is CARB considering when electrification is not feasible?
What does CARB plan to do different to get back on track with California’s VMT/GHG goals?
How will COVID-19 impact the development of the Mobile Source Strategy and regulatory efforts?
Needed Transformation• Zero-emission transformation in every sector
possible is key to California's future
• Streamlined infrastructure build-out is necessary tofacilitate transition to ZEVs
• Significant investments are needed to enableaccelerated transition to a zero-emission future
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Thank you
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