REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL
1 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/
Economic Development
Region 5: North Central
Covering the following counties:
Cass, Crow Wing, Morrison,
Todd and Wadena
2019 REGIONAL PROFILE Updated September 20, 2019
Cameron Macht
Regional Analyst, Northwest Minnesota Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development
CareerForce Willmar 2200 23rd St. NE, Suite 2040
Willmar, MN 56201 Office: (320) 441-6596
E-mail: [email protected] Web: http://mn.gov/deed/data/
REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL
2 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/
DEMOGRAPHICS POPULATION CHANGE Economic Development Region 5-North Central (EDR 5-North Central) is a mostly rural, five-county region located in the middle of the state, just north of the St. Cloud Metro Area. EDR 5-North Central was the seventh largest of 13 economic development regions (EDRs) in the state, accounting for 3.0 percent of the state’s total population. It was also the second largest of the four EDR’s in Northwest Minnesota. The regional population increased by 1.8 percent, or nearly 3,000 residents, from 2010 to 2018, compared to a 5.8 percent rise statewide (Table 1).
Two of the five counties in EDR 5-North Central grew in population since 2010, with Cass County growing 3.3 percent with the addition of 952 residents and Crow Wing County adding 2,389 people, a 3.8 percent growth rate. Cass was the 26th fastest growing county and Crow Wing was the 22nd fastest. Meanwhile, Morrison County and Wadena County had slight population decreases since 2010, with the former losing 29 residents and the latter losing 70 people. Todd County declined by 1.3 percent with a decrease of 313 people.
COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE The recent population increase in EDR 4 was fueled primarily by a natural increase -more births than deaths - of 2,074 people from 2010 to 2018 with 15,946 births and 13,872 deaths. These increases were supplemented by net migration of 922 people with 389 international migrants and 533 domestic migrants (Table 2).
With the in-migration, Region 5 was now home to 2,520 foreign born residents, or 1.5 percent of the total population. The largest number of immigrants in the region came from Latin America, Asia, Europe, Canada, and Africa (Figure 1). However the fastest increase in immigrants came from Asia and Africa, which grew by 30 and 20 percent, respectively, since 2010. Based on year of entry, Region 5’s foreign born population was “older” than the rest of the state. About 34 percent of the region’s immigrants entered the U.S. before 1990, compared to just 21.6 percent statewide. The region had less foreign-born residents who entered since 2010 than statewide with only 13.2 percent compared to the state’s 21.5 percent. Foreign-born residents have a younger age profile than the native born population, with 55.2 percent being between 15 and 34 years of age, compared to 32 percent of the total population. While a similar percentage of foreign-born residents had a bachelor’s degree or higher than native born residents, immigrants were also much more likely to have less than a high school diploma.
Table 1. Population Change 2010-2018
2010 Population
2018 Estimates
2010-2018 Change
Number Percent
Region 5 163,003 165,932 +2,929 +1.8%
Cass Co. 28,567 29,519 +952 +3.3%
Crow Wing Co. 62,500 64,889 +2,389 +3.8%
Morrison Co. 33,198 33,169 -29 -0.1%
Todd Co. 24,895 24,582 -313 -1.3%
Wadena Co. 13,843 13,773 -70 -0.5%
Northwest Minnesota 553,805 568,702 +14,897 +2.7%
Region 1 86,091 84,969 -1,122 -1.3%
Region 2 83,023 86,266 +3,243 +3.9%
Region 4 221,688 231,535 +9,847 +4.4%
State of Minnesota 5,303,925 5,611,179 +307,254 +5.8% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates
Table 2. Estimates of the Components of Population Change, 2010-2018
Total Change
Natural Increase
Vital Events Net Migration
Births Deaths Total Inter-
national Domestic
Region 5 +2,919 +2,074 15,946 13,872 +922 +389 +533
Minnesota +307,254 +228,289 570,171 341,882 +81,671 +107,830 -26,159 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program
17%
23%
5%
1%
42%
12%
Figure 1. Place of Birth for the Foreign Born Population in Region 5, 2017
Europe
Asia
Africa
Oceania
Latin America
Northern America
REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL
3 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/
POPULATION BY AGE GROUP In EDR 5-North Central, over one-third (37.8%) of the regional population is over the age of 55, compared to 28.8 percent statewide. In contrast, EDR 5 had a smaller percentage of people in the 25 to 54 year age group – typically considered the “prime working years”. A large portion of the population is a part of the Baby Boom generation, which is creating a significant shift in regional demographics over time. Between 2000 and 2018, the region gained over 20,000 residents 55 years of age or older. Still, 18.8 percent of the population is under 14 years of age, a similar rate to the proportion statewide (Figure 2 and 3).
POPULATION PROJECTIONS BY AGE GROUP EDR 5-North Central is projected to continue its population increase in the near future. Population projections from the Minnesota State Demographic Center show that the area is expected to gain nearly 2,500 residents from 2020 to 2040, a 1.5 percent increase (see Figure 4). In comparison, the projected growth statewide from 2020 to 2040 is approximately 8.8 percent. Still, the projected population change varies by age. The region is expected to add residents between the ages of 25 and 54, and a corresponding increase in young children. Conversely, major losses are expected to occur in the age groups from 55 to 74 years, as the Baby Boom generation ages out of those cohorts. However, this will also lead to over 11,000 more residents aged 75 years and over, a 62.1 percent expansion.
163,892 164,723 166,300
6.0%
12.8%
10.6%
10.4%
10.8%
11.6%
15.6%
12.5%
6.9%
2.8%
6.4%
13.0%
12.9%
13.6%
12.5%
12.8%
13.4%
8.8%
4.4%
2.2%
Under 5 years
5-14 years
15-24 years
25-34 years
35-44 years
45-54 years
55-64 years
65-74 years
75-84 years
85 years & over
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates
Figure 2. Population by Age Group, 2018
Region 5 Minnesota
9,144
22,625
19,524
15,432
22,669
20,361
16,416
13,715
8,907
3,307
9,895
21,252
17,553
17,323
17,994
19,226
25,803
20,695
11,530
4,661
Under 5 years
5-14 years
15-24 years
25-34 years
35-44 years
45-54 years
55-64 years
65-74 years
75-84 years
85 years & over
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Figure 3. Region 5 Population Pyramid, 2000-2018
2000 Population 2018 Estimate
7,959 9,304 10,439
19,823 16,103 19,623
21,940 22,332 19,015
15,553 20,445 21,284
16,986 14,787 20,025
17,337 16,149 14,266
23,886 16,517
15,702
22,125 23,077 16,308
14,107 19,849 21,013
4,176 6,160 8,625
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2020Projection
2030Projection
2040Projection
Tota
l Po
pu
lati
on
Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center
Figure 4. Region 5 Population Projections by Age Group, 2020-2040
Region 5
85 years &over75-84 years
65-74 years
55-64 years
45-54 years
35-44 years
25-34 years
15-24 years
5-14 years
Under 5years
REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL
4 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/
POPULATION BY RACE The population in EDR 5-North Central has had significant changes since the turn of the century, but remains less diverse than the state as a whole. In 2017, over 94 percent of the region’s residents reported white alone as their race, compared to 84.3 percent of residents statewide. However, every minority race increased faster than the white population from 2000 to 2017. In fact, the number of Black or African American residents nearly doubled since 2000, and those of Hispanic or Latino origin and Two or More Races increased by more than 125 percent (see Table 3).
Most of the regional diversity in EDR 5 is due to the sizable American Indian population. An estimated 4,306 residents in EDR 5 are American Indian or Alaskan Native. This was 2.6 percent of the regional population, two and a half time the statewide proportion.
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT With 31.3 percent of adults aged 18 years and over holding a college degree, EDR 5 had lower educational attainment than the state in 2017, where 42.7 percent of adults have an associate, bachelor’s, or advanced degree. In contrast, the region had a higher percentage of people with some college but no degree, and a high school diploma or less. Regional education attainment only exceeded the state in associate’s degrees (Table 4). Educational attainment varies significantly by race and ethnicity in EDR 4-West Central. Around 40 percent of Hispanic or Latino residents and 20 percent of Black or African American had less than a high school diploma, compared to just 8.6 percent of White residents. However, over 30 percent of Black or African Americans, American Indians, and people of Two or More Races have attended some college or earned an associate’s degree. However 22.3 percent of Asian residents have a Bachelor’s degree or higher, a greater percentage than the White population (Figure 5).
Table 3. Race and Hispanic Origin, 2017
EDR 5 – North Central Minnesota
Number Percent Change
from 2000-2017
Percent Change
from 2000-2017
Total 163,244 100.0% +7.3% 100.0% +11.6%
White 153,655 94.1% +5.4% 83.7% +4.5%
Black or African American 976 0.6% +171.1% 6.0% +90.4%
American Indian & Alaska Native 4,306 2.6% +12.3% 1.0% +4.7%
Asian & Other Pacific Islander 795 0.5% +80.7% 4.7% +79.2%
Some Other Race 602 0.4% +46.5% 1.7% +45.3%
Two or More Races 2,910 1.8% +126.8% 2.8% +86.7%
Hispanic or Latino 3,594 2.2% +157.6% 5.2% +98.5% Source: 2013-2017 American Community Survey, 5-year estimates
Table 4. Educational Attainment for the Adult Population, 2017
EDR 5-North Central Minnesota
Number Percent Percent
Total, 18 years & over 126,147 100.0% 100.0%
Less than high school 12,149 9.6% 7.8%
High school grad. (incl. equiv.) 42,797 33.9% 25.6%
Some college, no degree 31,578 25.0% 23.8%
Associate's degree 15,956 12.6% 10.6%
Bachelor's degree 16,305 12.9% 21.7%
Advanced degree 7,362 5.8% 10.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-2017 American Community Survey
9.0%
8.6%
18.8%
14.8%
16.2%
55.3%
13.0%
42.7%
34.1%
34.3%
21.5%
31.2%
30.6%
25.6%
33.7%
23.6%
36.9%
36.8%
48.8%
43.3%
30.8%
18.0%
36.8%
25.5%
20.0%
20.3%
10.9%
10.7%
22.3%
1.1%
16.4%
8.3%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Total Population
White Alone
Black or African…
American Indian Alone
Asian Alone
Some Other Race Alone
Two or More Races
Hispanic or Latino
Source: 2013-2017 American Community Survey
Figure 5. Region 5 Educational Attainment for the population aged 25 years & over by Race or Origin, 2017
Less than high school diploma High school graduate (inc. equiv.)
Some college or associate's degree Bachelor's degree or higher
REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL
5 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/
LABOR FORCE
LABOR FORCE CHANGE According to data from DEED’s Local Area Unemployment Statistics program, EDR 5-North Central had an annual average labor force count of more than 83,600 workers through 2018. Despite some ups and downs, the regional labor force has increased since 2000, adding nearly 5,300 new workers since then. However, the labor force in EDR 5 has declined by nearly 1,400 workers since its peak in 2010 (Figure 6). The size of the labor force has fluctuated significantly since 2000, growing rapidly until 2004, before a slight decrease from 2005 to 2007. The recession led to another rapid increase, but those gains were quickly reversed by 2012 as the labor market dipped below pre-recession numbers. Since then, there have been steady gains, particularly since 2014, from which time the region’s labor market has increased every year.
After averaging a net gain of about 1,800 additional labor force participants per year between 1990 and 2000, Region 5 employers were able to tap into a large and growing pool of talented workers. However, from 2010 to 2018, Region 5’s labor force actually shrank, subtracting 174 of workers per year (Figure 7). Increasingly tight labor markets and a growing scarcity of workers is now recognized as one of Region 5’s most significant barriers to future economic growth. In the face of these constraints, it has become evident that a more diverse workforce in terms of age, gender, race, ethnicity, disability status, and immigration has been and will continue to be a vital source of the workers that employers need to succeed. As the white, native-born workforce continues to age, younger workers of different races or from different countries will comprise the fastest growing segment of the labor force.
Average of -174 new workers
per year
Average of 1,810 new workers per
year
Average of 668 new workers
per year
2,8
12
,94
7
3,0
70
,22
3
78,360
83,074
85,035
81,962
83,242
83,645
2,650,000
2,700,000
2,750,000
2,800,000
2,850,000
2,900,000
2,950,000
3,000,000
3,050,000
3,100,000
74,000
76,000
78,000
80,000
82,000
84,000
86,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Min
neso
ta La
bo
r Force
Loca
l La
bo
r Fo
rce
Source: DEED Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program
Figure 6. Annual Labor Force Estimates, 2000-2018
Minnesota Region 5
-3,000-2,000-1,000
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000
19
90
-19
91
19
91
-19
92
19
92
-19
93
19
93
-19
94
19
94
-19
95
19
95
-19
96
19
96
-19
97
19
97
-19
98
19
98
-19
99
19
99
-20
00
20
00
-20
01
20
01
-20
02
20
02
-20
03
20
03
-20
04
20
04
-20
05
20
05
-20
06
20
06
-20
07
20
07
-20
08
20
08
-20
09
20
09
-20
10
20
10
-20
11
20
11
-20
12
20
12
-20
13
20
13
-20
14
20
14
-20
15
20
15
-20
16
20
16
-20
17
20
17
-20
18
Yea
r-O
ver-
Yea
r C
ha
ng
e in
Ava
ilab
le
Wo
rker
s
Source: DEED Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
Figure 7. Annual Change in Region 5 Labor Force, 1990-2018
REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL
6 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/
LABOR FORCE PROJECTIONS
Despite the projected population increase in EDR 5-North Central shown in Figure 4, the regional labor force is expected to contract some from 2020 to 2030. Applying current labor force participation rates to future population projections by age group creates labor force projections for the region, which show a 2.6 percent loss in workforce numbers, as more of the Baby Boom generation leaves the labor force. The projected decline estimates a loss in the number of teenaged and entry-level workers and workers aged 55 to 64 years by 2030, against smaller gains among those 65 years and over. However, the number of workers aged 20 to 44 years should increase by approximately 3,500 people. Being used to labor force growth, the anticipated contraction may lead employers to adapt their hiring and management practices in order to compete (Table 5).
EMPLOYMENT CHARACTERISTICS With 61.3 percent of the population 16 years of age and older in the labor force, EDR 5-North Central had a much lower labor force participation rate than the state overall. Every age group had lower labor force participation rates than those statewide except for the youngest age groups. In contrast, those 55 to 74 years of age had significantly lower participation rates in EDR 5 than statewide (Table 6).
Labor force participation rates vary by race in EDR 5, and lagged behind statewide rates. The labor force participation rate for Hispanic or Latino and Asians was greater than the participation rate for Whites. However, the unemployment rates for non-whites was greater in EDR 5 except for Black or African American and Asian.
There were 4,085 veterans and over 4,710 workers with disabilities in the regional labor force. In sum, unemployment rates were highest among young workers, American Indians, people of Some Other Race, and Hispanics or Latinos, and workers with disabilities.
Table 5. EDR 5-North Central Labor Force Projections
2020 Labor Force Projection
2030 Labor Force Projection
2020-2030 Change
Numeric Percent
16 to 19 years 4,766 4,338 -428 -9.0%
20 to 24 years 9,201 10,364 +1,163 +12.6%
25 to 44 years 28,065 30,388 +2,323 +8.3%
45 to 54 years 14,619 13,617 -1,002 -6.9%
55 to 64 years 15,496 10,715 -4,781 -30.9%
65 to 74 years 4,744 4,948 +204 +4.3%
75 years & over 1,100 1,565 +465 +42.3%
Total Labor Force 77,991 75,935 -2,056 -2.6% Source: calculated from Minnesota State Demographic Center population
projections and 2013-2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates
Table 6. EDR 5-North Central Employment Characteristics, 2017 EDR 5 – North Central Minnesota
Age Group
Labor Force
Labor Force Partic. Rate
Unemp. Rate
Labor Force Partic. Rate
Unemp. Rate
Total Labor Force 79,806 61.3% 4.5% 69.9% 4.3%
16 to 19 years 3,952 54.1% 9.4% 52.6% 12.8%
20 to 24 years 7,027 84.2% 7.0% 84.2% 7.1%
25 to 44 years 29,708 86.3% 4.7% 88.4% 3.9%
45 to 54 years 18,008 84.3% 3.2% 87.2% 3.0%
55 to 64 years 16,078 64.9% 4.0% 72.5% 3.2%
65 to 74 years 4,125 21.4% 2.1% 27.4% 2.7%
75 years & over 890 6.0% 1.2% 6.1% 2.8%
Employment Characteristics by Gender
Male 42,145 64.6% 5.1% 73.7% 4.8%
Female 37,651 57.9% 3.4% 66.1% 3.8%
Employment Characteristics by Race & Hispanic Origin
White alone 76,087 61.3% 4.2% 69.7% 3.6%
Black or African American 432 57.9% 1.4% 69.8% 11.0%
American Indian & Alaska Native 1,665 58.2% 16.0% 58.6% 13.3%
Asian or Other Pacific Islanders 386 63.8% 2.6% 71.1% 5.2%
Some Other Race 264 58.8% 7.5% 77.2% 7.5%
Two or More Races 932 64.5% 6.8% 72.5% 9.1%
Hispanic or Latino 1,601 72.5% 5.6% 76.2% 7.2%
Employment Characteristics by Disability
With Any Disability 4,710 47.1% 8.3% 52.3% 9.5%
Employment Characteristics by Educational Attainment
Population 25 to 64 years 63,809 79.2% 4.2% 84.1% 3.5%
Less than H.S. Diploma 3,837 65.9% 5.3% 65.4% 4.9%
H.S. Diploma or Equivalent 18,694 74.8% 2.4% 78.7% 2.9%
Some College or Assoc. Degree 27,378 81.8% 3.4% 85.2% 3.5%
Bachelor's Degree or Higher 13,892 85.2% 2.3% 89.6% 2.1%
Source: 2013-2017 American Community Survey, 5-Year Estimates
REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL
7 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES Regardless of the state of the economy, EDR 5-North Central has consistently reported higher unemployment rates than Minnesota overall since 2000. According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics program, the unemployment rate in EDR 5 consistently hovers one or two percent above the statewide rate, shifting in sync with economic fluctuations. During the recession, the region’s rate rose as high as 10.1 percent in 2009, but fell back to prerecession rates by 2015. Since then, the regional rate dropped to 4.4 percent in 2018 (Figure 8).
JOBSEEKERS PER VACANCY As the number of available workers has declined and the economy continues to recover, the region’s labor market has tightened. One clear demonstration of this is the ratio of unemployed jobseekers per vacancy, which now stands at 1.3-to-1 in Region 5. According to recent job vacancy survey results, there were 2,692 openings reported by employers compared to 3,499 unemployed jobseekers in the region. The ratio climbed as high as 15.3 during the recession in 2009 (Figure 9).
COMMUTE SHED AND LABOR SHED According to commuting data from the U.S. Census Bureau, nearly two-thirds of workers who live in the region also work within the region. However, EDR 5 is a net exporter of labor, having fewer jobs than available workers. In 2017, 51,369 workers both lived and worked in EDR 5, while another 16,241 workers drove into the region for work. This is compared to 29,903 workers who lived in the region but drove to outside areas for work (Table 7 and Figure 10).
Table 7. EDR 5-North Central Inflow/ Outflow Job Counts (All Jobs), 2017
2017
Count Share
Employed in the Selection Area 67,610 100.0%
Employed in the Selection Area but Living Outside 16,241 24.0%
Employed and Living in the Selection Area 51,369 76.0%
Living in the Selection Area 81,272 100.0%
Living in the Selection Area but Employed Outside 29,903 36.8%
Living and Employed in the Selection Area 51,369 63.2%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap
3.2 3.8 4.5 4.9 4.7 4.1 4.0 4.6 5.4 7.8 7.4 6.5 5.6 5.0 4.2 3.7 3.9 3.4 2.9
4.55.0
5.56.0 5.8
5.4 5.56.1
7.4
10.19.5
8.6
7.56.9
6.05.4 5.5
4.84.4
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Un
emp
loym
ent
Ra
te
Source: DEED Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program
Figure 8. Unemployment Rates, 2000-2018Minnesota Region 5
514
2,692
7,873
3,499
12.1
15.3
9.3
7.6
4.43.7
1.52.2 2.0 1.5 1.3
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Q42008
Q42009
Q42010
Q42011
Q42012
Q42013
Q42014
Q42015
Q42016
Q42017
Q42018
Job
seekers Per V
aca
ncy
Nu
mb
er o
f U
nem
plo
yed
& V
aca
nci
es
Source: DEED Job Vacancy Survey, LAUS program
Figure 9. Jobseekers Per Vacancy, 2008-2018
Region 5 Vacancies
Region 5 Unemployed
Jobseekers per Vacancy
REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL
8 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/
Figure 10. EDR 5-North Central Labor and Commute Shed, 2017
Crow Wing County is easily the largest employment center in the region and the biggest draw for workers, followed by Morrison and Cass counties. Employers in the region draw workers from surrounding counties like Otter Tail, Beltrami, Hubbard, Stearns, and Itasca. Local workers also travel to these same counties for work, as well as other surrounding counties like Benton, Mille Lacs and Aitkin (Figure 10). The average commute time for workers the region was 23.3 minutes, similar to 23.4 minutes for workers statewide. About 53 percent of workers commuted less than 20 minutes each way, compared to 46.5 percent statewide. About 6.3 percent of workers
worked at home, and 2.6 percent were able to walk to work. About half (51.1%) of workers left home between 6:00 a.m. and 8:00 a.m.
INCOMES, WAGES AND OCCUPATIONS HOUSEHOLD INCOMES Household incomes were significantly lower in EDR 5 than the rest of the state. The median household income in West Central was $51,265 in 2017, compared to $65,699 in Minnesota. Less than half (48.8%) of the households in the region had incomes below $50,000 in 2017, compared to 37.8 percent of households statewide. Only 6.1 percent of households had incomes greater than $150,000 in the region (Figure 11).
Median household incomes varied by race or origin in the region. American Indian households reported the lowest incomes in Region 5, with a median income that was nearly $20,000 lower than for White households. Black or African American households also reported much lower median incomes. Meanwhile, Hispanic or Latino and Two or More households reported similar median income as White households. Lastly, Asian households reported greater median incomes than White households (Figure 12).
22.8%
17.0%
26.0%
20.8%
20.9%
18.5%
12.7%
14.0%
11.5%
16.6%
6.1
%
13.1%
Region 5
Minnesota
Source: 2013-2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate
Figure 11. Household Incomes, 2017
Less than $25,000 $25,000-$49,999 $50,000-$74,999
$75,000-$99,999 $100,00-$149,999 $150,000 or more
$52,009
$35,428
$32,877
$64,177
$43,221
$51,594
$50,000
$0 $50,000 $100,000
White Alone
Black or African American Alone
American Indian Alone
Asian Alone
Some Other Race Alone
Two or More Races
Hispanic or Latino
Source: 2013-2017 American Community Survey
Figure 12. EDR 5-North Central Median Household Income by Race, 2017
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap
REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL
9 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/
COST OF LIVING According to DEED’s Cost of Living tool, the basic needs budget for an average Minnesota family (which consists of 2 adults and 1 child, with 1 full-time and 1 part-time worker) was $55,548 in 2018. The cost of living for a similar family in EDR 5 was $48,324 – which was the sixth highest of the 13 economic development regions in the state. The highest monthly costs were for transportation, food, and housing; though the region’s housing, child care, and taxes were significantly lower than the rest of the state. In order to meet the basic needs cost of living for the region, the two workers in the family scenario described would need to earn $15.49 per hour working a combined 60 hours per week. DEED’s Cost of Living tool provides different estimates for household compositions including single people, partnered couples, and up to 4 children. For a single person living alone and working full-time, the estimated yearly cost in EDR 5 would be $28,524, which would require an hourly wage of $13.71 to meet the basic needs standard of living (Table 8).
Overall, Region 5’s poverty rate was 11.9 percent, which was higher than the statewide rate of 10.5 percent. Like incomes, poverty levels varied widely by race and origin. It was estimated that over 52 percent of the region’s Black or African American population was below the poverty level in 2017, compared to just 10.6 percent of the White population. Likewise, poverty levels hovered around 30 percent for American Indians and Two or More Races. Nearly 20 percent of people of Asian and Hispanic or Latino origin also were below the poverty level in 2017. In almost all cases, the region’s poverty rate was higher than the state’s poverty rate, except for Some Other Race and Hispanic or Latinos (Figure 13).
Table 8. Family Yearly Cost, Worker Hourly Wage, and Family Monthly Costs, 2018
Family Composition
Number of
Workers
Yearly Cost of Living
Hourly Wage
Required
Monthly Costs
Child Care
Food Health Care
Housing Trans-
portation Other Taxes
EDR 5-North Central Single, 0 children 1 FT $28,524 $13.71 $0 $327 $138 $565 $724 $274 $349
Single, 1 child 1 FT $42,720 $20.54 $512 $483 $338 $760 $729 $381 $357
2 parents, 1 child 1 FT, 1 PT $48,324 $15.49 $256 $747 $496 $760 $847 $463 $458
2 parents, 2 children 2 FT $66,156 $15.90 $878 $975 $504 $971 $895 $597 $693
State of Minnesota
Single, 0 children 1 FT $30,900 $14.86 $0 $335 $137 $759 $629 $336 $379
2 parents, 1 child 1 FT, 1 PT $55,548 $17.80 $511 $764 $484 $986 $729 $537 $618 Source: DEED Cost of Living tool
10
.6%
52
.6%
37
.2%
20
.9% 12
.4%
30
.5%
16
.5%7
.9%
31
.9%
31
.5%
15
.4%
23
.4%
18
.3%
20
.9%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
Whitealone
Black orAfrican
American
AmericanIndian &AlaskaNative
Asian orOther Pac.Islanders
Some OtherRace
Two orMore Races
Hispanic orLatino
Ave
rage
Po
vert
y R
ate
Source: 2013-2017 American Community Survey
Figure 13. Percent Below the Poverty Level by Race or Origin, 2017Region 5 Minnesota
REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL
10 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/
WAGES AND OCCUPATIONS According to DEED’s Occupational Employment Statistics program, the median hourly wage for all occupations in Region 5 was $17.28 in the first quarter of 2019. North Central’s median wage was $3.67 below the state’s median hourly wage, equaling 82.5 percent of the statewide wage rate, and $5.50 below the median hourly wage in the Twin Cities metro area, which would amount to over $11,000 per year for a full-time worker (Table 9). Based on location quotient, Region 5 stands out for having higher concentrations of education, training, and library, healthcare support, community and social service, and farming, fishing and forestry workers than the state. The largest occupations in the region include office and administrative support, education, training, and library, production, and sales and related. Not surprisingly, the lowest-paying jobs are concentrated in food prep and serving, building, grounds cleaning and maintenance, sales and related, personal care and service, and healthcare support, which tend to have lower educational and training requirements. For the most part, the gap in pay between Region 5 and the state is also much lower in these jobs (Table 10).
Table 9. Occupational Employment Statistics by Region, 1st Qtr. 2019
Median Hourly Wage
Estimated Regional
Employment
Region 1 – Northwest $19.26 39,880
Region 2 – Headwaters $17.63 32,590
Region 3 – Arrowhead $18.57 144,430
Region 4 – West Central $18.28 89,170
Region 5 – North Central $17.28 62,180
Region 6E – SW Central $18.15 52,370
Region 6W – Upper MN Valley $18.01 17,080
Region 7E – East Central $19.30 45,270
Region 7W – Central $19.10 188,620
Region 8 – Southwest $17.66 55,840
Region 9 – South Central $18.24 103,510
Region 10 – Southeast $19.28 241,540
Region 11 – Twin Cities $22.78 1,793,870
State of Minnesota $20.95 2,867,700 Source: DEED Occupational Employment Statistics
Table 10. EDR 5-North Central Occupational Employment Statistics, 1st Qtr. 2019 Region 5-North Central State of Minnesota
Median Hourly Wage
Estimated Regional
Employment
Share of Total
Employment
Location Quotient
Median Hourly Wage
Estimated Regional
Employment
Share of Total
Employment
Total, All Occupations $17.28 62,180 100.0% 1.0 $20.95 2,867,700 100.0%
Office & Administrative Support $16.46 9,070 14.6% 0.9 $19.10 405,970 14.2%
Education, Training & Library $21.48 6,300 10.1% 2.0 $11.90 242,170 8.4%
Production $16.43 6,280 10.1% 1.4 $14.97 277,070 9.7%
Sales & Related $12.55 6,030 9.7% 0.9 $35.79 190,720 6.7%
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical $31.14 4,440 7.1% 0.9 $24.22 166,300 5.8%
Food Preparation & Serving Related $12.07 3,450 5.5% 0.9 $12.90 144,070 5.0%
Transportation & Material Moving $17.59 3,300 5.3% 0.6 $18.68 214,230 7.5%
Personal Care & Service $12.27 2,990 4.8% 0.8 $51.26 171,250 6.0%
Healthcare Support $15.66 2,800 4.5% 0.9 $18.48 177,580 6.2%
Management $38.61 2,620 4.2% 1.4 $23.13 100,030 3.5%
Building, Grounds Cleaning & Maint. $13.47 2,570 4.1% 1.3 $16.82 83,380 2.9%
Construction & Extraction $21.24 2,500 4.0% 1.1 $28.07 100,510 3.5%
Installation, Maintenance & Repair $20.34 2,210 3.6% 1.1 $14.97 85,820 3.0%
Business & Financial Operations $27.87 1,970 3.2% 0.5 $22.73 57,870 2.0%
Community & Social Service $21.75 1,750 2.8% 1.5 $33.03 164,510 5.7%
Protective Service $23.59 1,320 2.1% 1.6 $21.52 44,390 1.5%
Architecture & Engineering $30.82 760 1.2% 1.0 $37.53 56,070 2.0%
Computer & Mathematical $30.76 610 1.0% 0.4 $40.96 96,020 3.3%
Life, Physical & Social Science $28.70 470 0.8% 0.6 $33.54 26,210 0.9%
Arts, Design, Entertainment & Media $17.42 410 0.7% 0.8 $24.35 39,670 1.4%
Legal $25.95 220 0.4% 2.9 $36.50 19,870 0.7%
Farming, Fishing & Forestry $16.93 120 0.2% 0.5 $16.51 3,980 0.1% Source: DEED Occupational Employment Statistics, Qtr. 1 2019
REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL
11 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/
In contrast, the highest paying jobs are found in management, legal, architecture and engineering, computer and mathematical, healthcare practitioners, business and financial operations, and life, physical, and social science occupations, which all need higher levels of education and experience, including many that require postsecondary training. The pay gaps between the region and state are much bigger in these occupations often exceeding $5.00 per hour – or $10,000 per year for a full-time worker.
JOB VACANCY SURVEY Employers in EDR 5-North Central reported 2,692 job vacancies in the fourth quarter of 2018, slightly higher to the number of vacancies posted over the past fourth quarter surveys, but down from the peak of 2,833 vacancies reported in the fourth quarter of 2014. Demand for workers was high across all industries, with the largest number of openings in retail trade (1,047 job vacancies), health care and social assistance (626 job vacancies), manufacturing (232 job vacancies), educational services (176 job vacancies), and accommodation and food services (165 job vacancies). With job vacancy increases, wages have risen with the median hourly wage offer from the current survey jumping to $14.67 per hour, which was the highest wage offer in the history of the job vacancy survey. Wage offers ranged from just over $10 per hour for personal care and food preparation and serving occupations to over $25 per hour for healthcare practitioners, management, and community and social service occupations.
The largest number of vacancies were in sales and related, food preparation and serving related, healthcare practitioners, transportation and material mover, and production. Overall, 37 percent of the openings were part-time, 25 percent required post-secondary education, and 39 percent required 1 or more years of experience (Table 11). In sum, educational requirements in the region had been stable or declining over the past 5 years, while work experience requirements were relatively stable.
Table 11. EDR 5-North Central Job Vacancy Survey Results, 4th Qtr. 2018
Number of
Total Vacancies
Percent Part-time
Percent Temporary or Seasonal
Requiring Post-
Secondary Education
Requiring 1 or More Years of
Experience
Requiring Certificate or License
Median Hourly Wage Offer
Total, All Occupations 2,692 37% 9% 25% 39% 31% $14.67
Sales & Related 754 34% 0% 1% 34% 12% $12.89
Food Preparation & Serving Related 371 41% 19% 1% 12% 2% $11.83
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical 208 54% 2% 92% 30% 97% $25.31
Transportation & Material Moving 186 54% 31% 44% 52% 76% $17.23
Production 163 0% 10% 9% 26% 11% $13.42
Management 153 0% 0% 24% 100% 7% $24.69
Healthcare Support 128 76% 0% 13% 12% 86% $13.28
Business & Financial Operations 124 66% 0% 33% 34% 4% $16.38
Community & Social Service 124 9% 1% 84% 94% 90% $22.69
Personal Care & Service 109 69% 6% 6% 19% 31% $11.88
Building, Grounds Cleaning & Maint. 80 53% 47% 3% 32% 4% $11.96
Education, Training & Library 70 53% 53% 89% 60% 85% $12.52
Office & Administrative Support 69 16% 1% 33% 33% 21% $14.63
Construction & Extraction 55 0% 0% 4% 76% 2% $14.97
Architecture & Engineering 24 0% 0% 78% 48% 8% $21.29
Protective Service 22 18% 0% 54% 55% 67% $17.62 Source: DEED Job Vacancy Survey, 4th Qtr. 2018
REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL
12 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/
EDUCATIONAL REQUIREMENTS Despite the recent job vacancy data, DEED’s Occupational Employment Statistics program shows that only around one-third of current jobs held in the region require post-secondary education to enter. The other two-thirds require no more than a high school diploma, and sometimes less. However, some amount of on-the-job training is often needed (Figure 14).
Certain careers – such as dentists, lawyers, and teachers – require a college education, while other jobs – including cost estimators, sales representatives, and correctional officers – do not. College is an excellent way to move up career ladders and open windows of opportunity to fields that would otherwise be closed, such as nursing or engineering. Many of these occupations offer high wages and are in high demand in the marketplace. While education is typically a worthwhile investment, college can be expensive – with average annual expenses ranging between $14,500 and almost $50,000 per year in Minnesota. For those who go to college, choice of major matters – different programs lead to different jobs that earn different amounts of money.
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS Overall, the Northwest Planning Region is projected to grow 4.2 percent from 2016 to 2026, a gain of 10,961 new jobs. In addition, the region is also expected to need 130,759 replacement openings to fill jobs left vacant by retirements and other career changers. Production, personal care and service, construction and extraction, healthcare support, healthcare practitioners, and building, grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations are expected to see the most new growth. Arts, design, entertainment and media, sales and related, and office and administrative support occupations are expected to decline but every occupational group will show some future demand through replacement openings (Figure 15).
Source: DEED Occupational Employment Statistics
66.7%of jobs
7.8%
5.1%
14.7%
2.9
%2
.8%
36,730jobs
4,320
2,810
8,110
1,5
70
1,5
20
Figure 14. Region 5 Share of Jobs by Educational Requirements, 2019
High SchoolDiploma orLessVocationalAward
AssociateDegree
Bachelor'sDegree
GraduateDegree
No ClearEducationalAssignment
692
695
416
359
102
390
6
113
-1
877
960
129
161
761
1,251-70
-337
576
1,060
861
1,328
632
10,718
2,643
576
845
460
2,593
334
7,244
1,569
4,019
5,073
1,923
15,261
6,371
11,062
16,033
17,101
1,403
4,612
3,626
8,926
8,367
-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
Management
Business & Financial Operations
Computer & Mathematical
Architecture & Engineering
Life, Physical, & Social Science
Community & Social Service
Legal
Education, Training, & Library
Arts, Design, Entertainment & Media
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical
Healthcare Support
Protective Service
Food Preparation & Serving Related
Building, Grounds Cleaning & Maint.
Personal Care & Service
Sales & Related
Office & Administrative Support
Farming, Fishing, & Forestry
Construction & Extraction
Installation, Maintenance, & Repair
Production
Transportation & Material MovingSource: DEED 2016-2026 Employment Outlook
Figure 15. Northwest Planning Region Employment Projections, 2016-2026 From employment growth From exit openings
REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL
13 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/
OCCUPATIONS IN DEMAND According to DEED’s Occupations in Demand tool, there are nearly 500 occupations in demand (OID) in Region 5, and nearly 300 occupations are showing relatively high demand. Training and education requirements of these occupations range from short-term on-the-job training to postsecondary education and advanced degrees. Most OID require a high school diploma or less, and less than one-third require a bachelor’s degree or higher. While OID exist in every sector, the region’s major industries are well represented as many of the jobs are concentrated in health care, education, transportation, retail sales and other related industries (Table 12).
Table 12. 2019 Occupations in Demand by Education Level, EDR 5-North Central Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College or Assoc. Degree Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
Cashiers ($23,786)
Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers ($43,420)
Registered Nurses ($72,740)
Secondary School Teachers ($58,240)
Personal Care Aides ($25,859)
First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers ($38,753)
Nursing Assistants ($33,025)
Physical Therapists ($86,468)
Retail Salespersons ($26,276)
First-Line Supervisors of Food Prep & Serv. Workers ($33,190)
Licensed Practical & Licensed Vocational Nurses ($44,340)
Software Developers, Applications ($82,009)
Combined Food Prep. & Serving ($23,717)
Teacher Assistants ($30,528)
Electricians ($54,844)
Speech-Language Pathologists ($64,692)
Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners ($27,599)
Maintenance & Repair Workers, General ($39,560)
Heating, Air Cond. (HVAC) & Refrig. Mechanics ($49,128)
Child, Family, & School Social Workers ($52,059)
Janitors & Cleaners ($29,961)
Secretaries & Administrative Assistants ($37,053)
Automotive Service Technicians & Mechanics ($49,128)
Financial Managers ($92,497)
Cooks, Restaurant ($27,757)
Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal ($37,226)
Radiologic Technologists ($63,730)
Market Research Analysts & Marketing Spec. ($55,481)
Laborers & Freight, Stock & Material ($31,939)
Sales Rep. Wholesale & Manufacturing ($52,984)
Clinical Laboratory Techs & Technicians ($54,492)
Family & General Practitioners ($205,245)
Waiters & Waitresses ($22,570)
Welders, Cutters, Solderers, & Brazers ($41,694)
Medical Records & Health Information Techs ($45,171)
Industrial Engineers ($78,049)
Construction Laborers ($35,085)
Drivers/ Sales Workers ($34,851)
Dental Assistants ($44,030)
Human Resources Specialists ($54,389)
Source: DEED Occupations in Demand
ECONOMY INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT According to DEED’s Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW) program, Region 5 was home to 5,034 business establishments providing 62,958 covered jobs through 2018, with a total payroll that exceeded $2.4 billion. That was 2.2 percent of total employment in the state of Minnesota. Average annual wages were $38,534 in the region, which was about $19,500 lower than the average annual wage statewide (Table 13).
Table 13. EDR 5-North Central Industry Employment, 2018 Average Annual Wage
2013-2018 2017-2018
Geography Number of Firms
Number of Jobs Total Payroll
Change in Jobs
Percent Change
Change in Jobs
Percent Change
EDR 5-North Central 5,034 62,958 $2,426,037,420 $38,534 +2,967 +4.9% +290 +0.5%
Cass Co. 898 10,445 $345,463,188 $33,075 +662 +6.8% +80 +0.8%
Crow Wing Co. 2,169 29,750 $1,202,370,833 $40,416 +2,051 +7.4% +140 +0.5%
Morrison Co. 973 10,802 $403,593,146 $37,363 -24 -0.2% -22 -0.2%
Todd Co. 577 6,440 $262,316,370 $40,732 +464 +7.8% -23 -0.4%
Wadena Co. 418 5,521 $212,293,883 $38,452 -185 -3.2% +115 +2.1%
State of Minnesota 175,424 2,881,172 $167,122,456,472 $58,005 +189,002 +7.0% +27,207 +1.0%
Source: DEED Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW)
REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL
14 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/
In terms of employment, Crow Wing County is the largest economic center in EDR 5 with 29,750 jobs at 2,169 firms. Since 2013, 2,051 jobs were added in Crow Wing County, which accounted for almost three quarters of total regional growth in that time. Cass County also saw strong job growth in the past 5 years. Wadena County has the smallest economy with 5,251 jobs, after gaining 115 jobs in the last year. Morrison County lost 22 jobs from 2017 to 2018, a 0.2 percent decrease and Todd County lost 23 employees but employers there reported the highest average annual wages last year in the region. EDR 5 gained employment over the past decade overall, but experienced significant swings in employment during the recession and recovery. For the most part, regional employment followed statewide trends, except for 2012, when the recovery in EDR 5 had a setback. As such, the region did not fully recover all of the jobs lost during the recession until 2017, four years later than the state as a whole. However, employment in EDR 5 has increased 4.9 percent since 2013, compared to 7.0 percent growth statewide (Figure 16).
With 11,256 jobs at 480 establishments, the health care and social assistance industry employs the most workers in EDR 5-North Central. After adding 586 jobs the last five years, the industry accounted for 17.9 percent of total regional jobs in 2018. Reflecting the region’s aging population, hospitals and nursing and residential care facilities were the largest employing sectors; while ambulatory health care services and social assistance were seeing the largest job growth from 2013 to 2018.
The next largest industry in EDR 5 is retail trade, which also experienced large job gains in recent years after falling during the recession. Retail trade added over 650 jobs since 2013, and 170 jobs in 2018 alone; but still has not regained pre-recession employment levels after peaking at 9,438 jobs in 2006. Overall, retail trade still accounted for 8,896 jobs in the region at 742 stores in 2018. The closely related accommodation and food services industry also provided 7,443 jobs at 510 establishments, after gaining 296 jobs since 2013. Combined, these two industries account for more than 25 percent of total employment in the region, but offer relatively low average annual wages, at $27,353 and $17,957, respectively.
Other important industries in EDR 4 include manufacturing, educational services, public administration, and construction which combined for more than 21,000 jobs, or 33.5 percent of total jobs. Fourteen of 20 regional industries added jobs since 2013, led by huge gains in retail trade, health care and social assistance, manufacturing, construction, and educational services. Growth was more scattered in the past year, with 13 of the 20 industries seeing job declines since 2017 (Table 14).
60,049
62,19161,803
59,67659,795
59,055
59,99160,543
61,103
61,837
62,66862,958
2,578,050
2,680,530
2,563,391
2,644,935
2,692,170
2,881,172
2,400,000
2,500,000
2,600,000
2,700,000
2,800,000
2,900,000
3,000,000
57,000
58,000
59,000
60,000
61,000
62,000
63,000
64,000
2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
Statew
ide Jo
bs
Loca
l Jo
bs
Source: DEED QCEW program
Figure 16. Industry Employment Statistics, 2003-2018Region 5 Minnesota
REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL
15 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/
Table 14. EDR 5-North Central Industry Employment Statistics, 2018 Region 5 2018 Annual Data 2013-2018 2017-2018
NAICS Industry Title Number of Firms
Number of Jobs
Total Payroll
($1,000s)
Avg. Annual Wage
Change in Jobs
Percent Change
Change in Jobs
Percent Change
Total, All Industries 5,034 62,958 $2,426,037 $38,534 +2,967 +4.9% +290 +0.5%
Health Care & Social Assistance 480 11,256 $520,832 $46,272 +586 +5.5% +194 +1.8%
Retail Trade 742 8,896 $243,336 $27,353 +670 +8.1% +170 +1.9%
Accommodation & Food Services 510 7,443 $133,654 $17,957 +296 +4.1% -199 -2.6%
Manufacturing 290 6,605 $316,764 $47,958 +550 +9.1% +186 +2.9%
Educational Services 107 6,073 $237,597 $39,123 +397 +7.0% +150 +2.5%
Public Administration 199 5,022 $232,881 $46,372 +126 +2.6% +195 +4.0%
Construction 638 3,361 $177,990 $52,957 +462 +15.9% -146 -4.2%
Finance & Insurance 230 2,089 $117,121 $56,065 +138 +7.1% -9 -0.4%
Other Services 503 1,925 $42,173 $21,908 +119 +6.6% -2 -0.1%
Professional & Technical Services 248 1,674 $90,753 $54,213 -26 -1.5% -92 -5.2%
Wholesale Trade 142 1,619 $74,438 $45,978 -213 -11.6% -34 -2.1%
Admin. Support & Waste Mgmt. Svcs. 224 1,554 $48,649 $31,306 -54 -3.4% -76 -4.7%
Transportation & Warehousing 222 1,551 $57,060 $36,789 +45 +3.0% -10 -0.6%
Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 113 1,222 $25,242 $20,657 -59 -4.6% -16 -1.3%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fish & Hunt 126 802 $25,436 $31,715 +40 +5.2% -42 -5.0%
Information 64 732 $31,955 $43,655 -153 -17.3% -40 -5.2%
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 155 650 $17,937 $27,596 +4 +0.6% -37 -5.4%
Utilities 15 238 $21,136 $88,806 +2 +0.8% +14 +6.3%
Management of Companies 21 214 $9,600 $44,861 +50 +30.5% +86 +67.2%
Mining 8 16 $111 $6,927 -19 -54.3% -13 -44.8%
Source: DEED Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW) program
INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT According to DEED’s Quarterly Employment Demographics (QED) program, the workforce in the region was aging over the past 10 years. Nearly one-quarter (24.5%) of workers in the region were 55 years or older, compared to 21.5 percent statewide and just 18.3 percent in the region one decade earlier. In contrast, the percentage of teenaged workers was falling and wages were going up for younger workers (Table 15). As noted above, wages were climbing across the board for all workers due to rising demand and a tight labor market. While wages were still lowest for the youngest and oldest workers who tend to fill lower-skilled, less-than-fulltime jobs in industries like retail trade and accommodation and food services, these two age groups enjoyed the fastest percentage increase in wages from 2008 to 2018. Wages were highest for workers between 45 and 64 years of age, and males worked more hours than females, though the gap was narrowing.
Table 15. Workforce Demographics by Age Group and Gender, Total of All Industries, 2008-2018
EDR 5-North Central
Percentage of Workers
Percent of Workers, Minnesota
Median Hourly Wage
Median Hours Worked (Per Qtr.)
2018 2008 2018 2008 2018 2008 2018 2008
Total, all ages 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% $16.85 $13.14 405 398
19 years & under 7.4% 9.6% 6.1% 7.5% $10.61 $7.38 118 121
20 to 24 years 9.4% 10.3% 10.3% 11.6% $13.95 $10.04 287 279
25 to 44 years 39.6% 39.0% 42.9% 42.7% $18.73 $14.90 456 460
45 to 54 years 19.1% 22.8% 19.1% 22.5% $20.25 $15.89 480 480
55 to 64 years 18.1% 14.0% 16.7% 12.6% $18.98 $15.02 463 440
65 years & over 6.4% 4.3% 4.8% 3.1% $14.34 $10.73 197 174
Male 46.1% 45.9% 49.1% 49.0% $18.51 $14.98 461 463
Female 53.9% 54.1% 50.9% 51.0% $16.14 $12.03 377 352
Source: DEED Quarterly Employment Demographics
REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL
16 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/
INDUSTRY PROJECTIONS The 26-county Northwest Planning Area is projected to grow 4.2 percent from 2016 to 2026, a gain of 10,961 new jobs. The largest and fastest growing industry is expected to be health care and social assistance, which may account for one-third of the total projected growth in the region by 2026. The region is also expected to see significant employment growth in manufacturing, administrative and waste services, agriculture and forestry, wholesale trade, and construction. In contrast, retail trade is expected to cut 1,168 jobs in the next decade, and educational services will also see cuts (Table 16).
NONEMPLOYER ESTABLISHMENTS Region 5 was home to 13,019 self-employed businesses or “nonemployers” in 2017, which are defined by the U.S. Census Bureau as “businesses without paid employees that are subject to federal income tax, originating from tax return information of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).” Unlike covered employment, Region 5 saw a steady decrease in nonemployers over the past decade, responding to economic changes. In sum, the region lost 547 nonemployers from 2007 to 2017, a 4.0 percent decrease. Crow Wing County had the most nonemployers in 2017 and in total, these non-employers generated sales receipts of over $620 million in 2017 (Table 17).
CENSUS OF AGRICULTURE Unlike other parts of Greater Minnesota, agriculture is not a key industry in Region 5, but there are 4,806 farms producing just over $672 million in the market value of products sold in 2017 according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. With the exception of Morrison County, which ranked 12th in the state for the market value of products sold, and Todd County, which was just outside of the top half of the state by ranking 52rd of 87 counties, the rest of the counties in the region rank near the bottom in Minnesota in regards to the market value of products sold (Table 18). Region 5 has had a 15.0 percent decline in market value over the past 5 years.
Table 16. Northwest Industry Projections, 2016-2026
Industry
Estimated Employment
2016
Projected Employment
2026
Percent Change
2016-2026
Numeric Change
2016-2026
Total, All Industries 262,786 273,747 +4.2% +10,961
Health Care & Social Assistance 36,018 39,725 +10.3% +3,707
Manufacturing 28,471 30,356 +6.6% +1,885
Retail Trade 28,429 27,261 -4.1% -1,168
Educational Services 23,095 22,758 -1.5% -337
Public Administration 21,609 22,418 +3.7% +809
Accommodation & Food Services 20,621 21,205 +2.8% +584
Wholesale Trade 11,833 13,030 +10.1% +1,197
Construction 10,252 11,287 +10.1% +1,035
Other Services, Ex. Public Admin 10,328 10,314 -0.1% -14
Transportation & Warehousing 7,030 7,246 +3.1% +216
Agriculture, Forestry, Fish & Hunt 5,949 7,221 +21.4% +1,272
Administrative & Waste Services 5,031 6,427 +27.7% +1,396
Finance & Insurance 5,939 6,105 +2.8% +166
Professional & Technical Services 4,723 5,075 +7.5% +352
Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 5,001 5,001 +0.0% +0
Information 2,660 2,599 -2.3% -61
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 1,396 1,448 +3.7% +52
Utilities 1,193 1,146 -3.9% -47
Management of Companies 930 970 +4.3% +40
Mining 255 253 -0.8% -2
Source: DEED 2016-2026 Employment Outlook
Table 17. Nonemployer Statistics, 2017
2017 2007-2017
Number of Firms
Receipts ($1,000s)
Change in Firms
Percent Change
EDR 5 13,019 $620,941 -547 -4.0%
Cass Co. 2,622 $126,511 -264 -9.1%
Crow Wing Co. 5,247 $253,724 -66 -1.2%
Morrison Co. 2,406 $115,443 -82 -3.3%
Todd Co 1,700 $80,744 -12 -0.7%
Wadena Co. 1,044 $44,519 -123 -10.5%
Minnesota 409,860 $19,370,490 +22,876 +5.9%
Source: U.S. Census, Nonemployer Statistics program
Table 18. Census of Agriculture, 2017 State Rank
Number of Farms
Market Value of Products Sold
EDR 5 4,806 $672,544,000 9
Cass Co. 432 $26,464,000 76
Crow Wing Co. 494 $19,054,000 78
Morrrison Co. 1,760 $394,721,000 12
Todd Co. 1,604 $179,461,000 52
Wadena Co. 516 $52,844,000 68
Minnesota 68,822 $18,395,390,000
Source: 2017 Census of Agriculture
Upon request, this information can be made available in alternate formats for people with disabilities by contacting Cameron Macht at (320) 441-6596 or at [email protected].