UNCLASSIFIED MEXICO 00002281
VZCZCXRO7419 RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM DE RUEHME #2281/01 0942224 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 042224Z APR 05
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2515 INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE RUEHFSI/DIR FSINFATC BT UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 002281
DEPT FOR CA/FPP FSI FOR CONSULAR TRAINING E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KFRD, CVIS, KCRM, ASEC, PTER, MX
SUBJECT: MOST POTENTIAL ILLEGALS DON'T EVEN TRY FOR VISAS REF: 2004 MEXICO 08680
1. SUMMARY: We recently analyzed data regarding the
225,172 people intercepted by Customs and Border Protection
(CBP) while attempting to enter the U.S. without inspection
(EWI), from September to November 2004 along both the
northern and southern border. Checking their names against
CCD, we learned that fewer than five percent had ever
applied for an NIV. Aliens with other nationalities were
more likely to have tried to obtain visas than Mexicans.
Not unexpectedly we learned that almost 80% of the EWIs
were between the ages of 18 and 35, and significantly more
than half were male. Also the majority were Mexicans, most
of whom were apprehended in the Arizona Sector. Fewer than
seventy of the aliens had “special interest alien”
nationalities. END SUMMARY
97 PERCENT OF APPREHENDED EWIs DID NOT APPLY FOR A VISA
2. In December, we received a list of 225,172 CBP
apprehensions that took place in all CBP sectors, including
the Mexican and Canadian borders. Interceptions were
highest along the southern border. CBP sectors in Arizona
accounted for 51.5% of all intercepts, Texas accounted for
33%, and California had 13.5%. The northern border
accounted for only 1% of EWIs intercepted, while Miami, New
Orleans and Puerto Rico combined accounted for another 1%.
3. With assistance from CA/EX/CSD, we checked the names
against the Combined Consular Database (CCD) to see how
many had previously applied for a visa of any type. The
answer was fewer than five percent. Thus 95 percent of the
225,172 intending illegal entrants from the CBP list never
tried to apply for a visa. This indicates that the
overwhelming majority of people who intend to enter the
U.S. illegally don’t even try to fool a consular officer
about their intent. Rather they see applying for a visa as
hopelessly futile.
4. Analyzing the list, we noticed that there were a number
of duplicate names. Our CBP colleagues indicated that
multiple apprehensions of the same individuals were the
most likely source of the duplication. To refine results,
we eliminated duplicate entries in the original CBP list,
and were left with 202,552 as the number of apprehended
EWIs. Of this figure, 176,927 were Mexicans, or 87% of the
total. The remaining 25,615,or 13% of the total, were
third country nationals, usually referred to as “other than
Mexican” (OTM). We then removed duplicates from the list
of NIV applicants and found that the numbers changed to
5,217 who had previously applied for NIVs, or 2.6% of EWIs
apprehended. Of those who had applied for visas, 3,886
were Mexicans and 1331 were OTMs. In percentage terms,
2.2% of the 176,927 Mexican EWIs had applied for an NIV, as
compared to 5.2% of OTM EWIs. Considering that OTMs must
travel much greater distances before reaching a U.S.
border, it is not surprising that OTMs would prefer to have
a visa and so would also have a higher rate of NIV
application than Mexicans. Indeed, we expected that the
OTM application rate would be greater than 5%.
NIV REFUSALS APPARENTLY GIVE UP, THEY DO NOT TRY THE DESERT
5. During the same September to November period, 96,799
NIV applicants were refused in Mexico. Comparing these
names with the 2,476 EWIs who had been refused under
section 214(b), it appears that fewer than 3 percent of our
refusals will be apprehended trying to cross the desert
with a coyote. While no one knows the exact proportion of
apprehensions compared to those who are successful at
getting past CBP, the most often invoked ratio is one
apprehension for every three attempts to cross. Using that
formula, a formula we are aware is subject to challenge, we
can extrapolate that something on the order of 606,000
people attempted to enter during the sample period, of whom
7,500 would be NIV refusals. Restated as a percentage,
this would yield an expectation that 8 percent of those
refused an NIV could be expected to try the desert. Hence
these numbers tell us that approximately 92% of refused NIV
applicants do not/not try to enter without inspection.
This number is subject to challenge based on the one in
three formula.
IDENT HELPS DETER IDENTITY FRAUD
6. The possibility intercepted EWIs were using false names
posed a risk to our conclusions. Accordingly, we discussed
this problem with colleagues in CBP, who feel that
widespread IDENT fingerprinting had significantly increased
the risks of presenting a fraudulent identity and that this
resulted in a decrease in EWIs using fraudulent identities.
This would hold true even if some of those intercepted were
not fingerprinted, if we accept that the probability of
fingerprinting and likelihood of prosecution would act as a
deterrent. Additionally, since names of those intercepted
are not currently passed on to the CLASS database, there is
little risk in giving their true name at time of
apprehension.
WHO IS TRYING TO CROSS, DEMOGRAPHICS OF ILLEGAL MIGRATION
7. CBP identified 87% of the 202,552 EWIs apprehended as
Mexicans. This tracks with other estimates that most
illegal migrants in the U.S. are from Mexico. Of the
remaining other than Mexican apprehensions, OTMs, the
second largest group was 18,309 people from Central
America, or 9%. The country breakdown shows Honduras with
8,886, El Salvador with 5,921, and Guatemala with 3,232
people respectively. After the Central Americans, Brazil
accounted for 2% of the total; Cuba and China each had 0.3%
of the EWIs; Nicaragua had 0.2%.
8. Recent press reports note the risks of Middle
Easterners trying to cross into the U.S. using the
traditional routes of illegal aliens. However, neither CBP
records nor Mexican immigration statistics show any large-
scale efforts on the part of Middle Easterners. There were
only 69 SIAs in the total or .0035% of the CBP
apprehensions. The breakdown shows that of the five
Afghans, three were apprehended near our southern border.
Likewise one of the six Algerians, seven of the eleven
Egyptians, eight of the nine Iranians, six of the seven
Iraqis, three of the 28 Pakistanis, two Syrians and one
Yemeni were intercepted near our southern border. Thus of
69 SIAs, 31 individuals, or 45% of the SIAs, were
apprehended along our southern border. By contrast, 98% of
the total 202,552 CBP apprehensions were intercepted at or
near our southern border.
9. We would like to note that the overwhelming majority of
apprehensions by Mexican immigration (INM) officials are
also from Central America. Of the 148,361 apprehensions
made by INM in all of Mexico from January to August of
2004, 96% were Central Americans. (See reftel). It is
important to note that Mexico does not require visas of
Brazilians, but they also accounted for 3857 INM
detentions. INM also intercepted 389 Chinese.
10. Ages for those intercepted by CBP ranged from infants
to centenarians. As expected, the vast majority, or 73%
were aged 18 to 35. 20,041, or 10%, were under 18 years
old; 34,443, or 17% were over 35. Children under 11
accounted for an incredible 6,243 apprehensions.
11. Gender was not noted in the apprehension data.
However, we selected a random sample of 383 from the
202,552 (total apprehensions) and by checking first names,
it appeared that approximately 80% of those apprehended
were male. We next selected a random sample of 378 for
gender from the 25,625 OTMs. Gender proportions were not
as striking among OTMs as within the total. Our random
sample showed 63% of OTMs were male. The most likely
explanation for the differential is that the goal of OTMs
is more likely to be permanent immigration rather than
short-term work which is still most likely to be the intent
of Mexican EWIs.
12. Caveat: We appreciate that this is a snapshot of what
took place during a three-month period at the end of 2004.
While we believe the data are indicative of current trends,
it is possible that data collected for a full year or
during a different quarter of the year might yield
different results. We believe the trends are worth
reviewing periodically in order to better assess our
vulnerabilities and strengths.
BT #2281 NNNN UNCLASSIFIED MEXICO 00002281