Part of the BRE Trust
BRE National Solar CentreRay Noble
NSc Eden Event, 25th June 2014
Opportunities for Solar following the UK Solar Strategy
1. The Governments Solar Strategy
- Published in two parts
October 2013 & April 2014
- Sets out the future
deployment at 12GW to
20GW
- Presently DECC think we
are at 2.8GW deployed
- Unfortunately DECC,
National Grid, Network
Suppliers & Ofgem cannot
keep up with the rapid
deployment of Solar
- Growth of Solar is fuelled
by the 60% fall in installed
prices over 3 years
2. Present Deployment
- Solar deployment is exceeding all DECC predictions – now 4.80GW
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Part 1 (Oct 2013)
Part 2 (Apr 2014)
20GW Ambition
Actual
Budget
Result - Emergency Consultation!!!
3. Highlights of the Solar Strategy
- No change to FIT’s
- No change to ROC’s for under 5MW - roof or field projects
- Over 5MW Solar Fields to be stopped – Consultation underway
- A focus on Solar to be installed on all types of Buildings
- Solar Fields on previously used land OK but avoid good agricultural
land (but now with a maximum of 5MW)
- Permitted development for large roofs to be changed (Consultation in
June)
- BIPV on new build will be encouraged (improved aesthetics)
- Presently over 510,000 Domestics have Solar
- DECC would like to see this double by 2016
- Community Solar projects being encouraged (possibly up to 10MW)
- Ofgem to speed up registration process
- A number of other changes, “barriers” being investigated including grid,
EPCs, roof lease terms, multiple projects digression, etc
- UK to install 1GW of Solar on Government Estate by 2016
4. Feed in Tariff
- Subsidy is there to help stimulate the market
- Paid for 20 years
- Index linked to RPI
- Export tariff 4.77p/kWh
- Present ROI around 12%
Description
Installed after 1/4/2014
(p/kWh)
4kW or less, newbuild 14.38 (14.38 in July)
4kW or less, retrofit 14.38 (14.38 in July)
greater than 4kW but not exceeding 10kW 13.03 (13.03 in July)
greater than 10kW but not exceeding 50kW 12.13 (12.13 in July)
greater than 50kW but not exceeding 100kW 10.71 (10.34 in July)
greater than 100kW but not exceeding 150kW 10.71 (10.38 in July)
greater than 150kW but not exceeding 250kW 10.25 (9.89 in July)
greater than 250kW 6.61 (6.38 in July)
Stand-alone (not attached to a building and not wired to provide
electricity to an occupied building)6.61 (6.38 in July)
5. Feed in Tariff – Digression mechanism
- Automatic adjustment of tariff based on deployment in a previous 3
month period
- Reductions generally 0% or a maximum of 3.5%
- 9 month rule 3.5% digression even if no deployment
Degression
bands and
trigger points
0-10kW 10 – 50kW >50kW and
stand alone
% degression
point 1 100MW 50MW 50MW 0%
point 2 200MW 100MW 100MW 3.5%
point 3 250MW 150MW 150MW 7%
point 4 300MW 200MW 200MW 14%
point 5 >300MW >200MW >200MW 28%
6. ROCs
- New replacement to ROCs for projects above 5MW being introduced
“Contract for Difference”, bid for an allocation
- Paid for 15 years
- Subsidy overlaps with FITs above 50kWp
- Paid for 20 years
- One ROC worth around 4.257p/kWh
- Electricity sold to the highest bidder, generally around 5.2p/kWh, but
higher with a PPA
- Present ROI around 12%
ROCs/MWh and bands 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
Building-mounted 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4
Ground mounted 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2
7. Why Solar
- Solar prices continue to fall and is now 30% cheaper than Offshore
Wind
- Grid electricity prices set to double by 2020
- Solar electricity predicted to be cheaper than fossil fuel generation
during this decade
- Solar already cheaper than Nuclear
- Shell New Lens Report “Solar will dominate the Global energy market
this century, predicts 37.7% of the Worlds energy will come from Solar”
- Sir David King (ex Gov. Chief Scientist) calling for an Apollo
movement in Solar which could provide 25% of the Worlds energy by
2025
- IPCC report on Climate Change “must move away from Fossil fuel
generation
- Storage, the holy grail of Solar, will be viable within 2 to 4 years
8. Solar Fields
- Guidance produced by the NSC
- Some projects initially were poorly
sited
- NSC recommends only land which is
flat, well screened by hedges / trees,
away from roads and houses, invisible
within the landscape and of poor
quality soil should be used
- NSC also produced guidance on
Biodiversity potential of Solar Farms,
supported all of the NGO’s
- NFU are big supporters of Solar
Fields which they see as being another
crop that farmers can produce
- See www.bre.co.uk/nsc
9. Good Solar Fields are virtually invisible
10. Large Roofs
- Large Solar roofs are virtually
invisible, those below 50kWp need
no Planning permission but large
roofs do! Government will change
this soon
- Roofs are ideal for Solar as
electricity is generated where it is
used
11. Community Solar
- Solar on Roofs or Solar in Fields
can be owned, or part owned, by the
Community
- Good Developers offering
Community share arrangements
- Investment for the Community
provides returns significantly more
than an ISA
- Electricity sold to the grid or through
a PPA at present
- But Government investigating
changes to supply rules so that
Community generators can use this
electricity in their own homes
- Government want the big 60,000
not the big 6
12. Domestic Roofs
- Over 510,000 houses now have
Solar and Government would like
this to grow to 1million by 2016
- Many users have become more
energy efficient overall as a result
13. Domestic Integrated Solar
- Integrated systems should
virtually make the Solar invisible
- Covering half the roof is
approximately the equivalent
generation as electricity used in
the house
14. Solar Canopies over car parks
- Large surface car parks are ideal
for Solar canopies. Electricity can
be fed into the adjacent building
- Growth Electric Vehicles and Plug
in Hybrids charged with Solar
electricity will make the vehicle
truly “Green”
15. Solar Performance in the UK
- Solar products continue to
improve in efficiency
- Generation is significantly better
than originally predicted
- NSC working with the Met Office
to link measured light levels to
generation to improve industry
predictions
- Initial indications by Met Office
suggest that light levels are
improving year on year which
could be the result of climate
change
16. Storage
- Until very recently DECC and
National Grid thought that storage
was 10/20 years away
- The motor industry are
developing storage at a rapid rate
for EV’s and super Hybrid’s
- Germany has already put in place
a Domestic storage program
- In the UK it is expected that
Domestic storage will become
viable within 2/4 years
- For those with Solar systems it
would mean an end to exporting
their high value electricity
- Storage can also be used to help
balance the grid
This survey was carried out by DECC!!!
17. Public love Solar
18. Future
- Solar is becoming a part of the
energy mix in the UK
- Latest National Grid figures
indicate that Solar produced
around 3.5% of the electricity
requirements in June (up to 8% 0f
daytime load)
- This will double by May 2015,
expect around 9GW
- Solar is here to stay and is a threat
to existing generators and allows
everyone to be an electricity
generator
19. Opportunities for Cornish Companies
- We want to assist you to grow the market
- We want to pilot various ways to develop new customers
- We need to understand how you believe we can help
www.bre.co.uk/nsc
- We want to assist you to grow
the market
- We want to pilot various ways to
develop new customers
- We need to understand how
you believe we can help
Opportunities for Cornish Companies