Commodities : International Environment & Trading (OFIN 2290A)Franck Pradier Commodities Derivatives Trading February 20081 International Commodities Trading
*History of Commodities Classical civilizations built complex global markets trading gold or silver for spices, cloth, wood and weapons, most of which had standards of quality and timeliness.
The modern commodity markets have their roots in the trading of agricultural products. While wheat and corn, cattle and pigs, were widely traded using standard instruments in the 19th century in the United States, other basic foodstuffs such as soybeans were only added quite recently in most markets. For a commodity market to be established there must be very broad consensus on the variations in the product that make it acceptable for one purpose or another. The economic impact of the development of commodity markets is hard to over-estimate. Through the 19th century "the exchanges became effective spokesmen for, and innovators of, improvements in transportation, warehousing, and financing, which paved the way to expanded interstate and international trade.
Commodity exchanges began in the middle of the 19th century, when businessmen began organizing market forums to make buying and selling of commodities easier. These marketplaces provided a place for buyers and sellers to set the quality, standards, and establish rules of business. By the late 1800s about 1,600 marketplaces had sprung up at ports and railroad stations.
The London Metal Market and Exchange Company was founded in 1877 but the market traces its origins back to 1571 and the opening of the Royal Exchange. At first only copper was traded, lead and zinc were soon added but only gained official trading status in 1920.
The Chicago Board of Trade was founded in 1848. The NYBOT in 1870. The NYMEX in 1882. The COMEX in 1933.
*Commodities World MapUS: Oil, NG (19%), Coal (20%), Ethanol (35%), Gold Silver, Alu, Copper, Lead, Wheat, Corn (41%), Cotton, Soybean (38%), SugarChina: Oil, Coal (42%), Ethanol, Gold, Silver, Base Metals, Steel, Corn, Cotton, Soybean, WheatBrazil: Oil, Ethanol (35%), Alu, Coffee, Soybean, SugarSouth Africa: Oil, Coal, Gold (12%), Platinum (78%)Russia: Oil (11%), NG (22%), Gold (7%), Silver, Alu, NickelAustralia: Oil, Coal, Gold (10%), Silver, Alu, Copper, Lead, NickelIndia: Coal, Ethanol, Alu, Cotton, WheatCanada: Oil, NG (7%), Gold, Silver, LumberSaudi Arabia: Oil (12%), NG (3%)
*Key facts1. Physical Commodity trading represents around :
Where: Crude Oil $3 120 BilRefined Products $3 600 BilElectricity $1 000 BilNatural Gas $ 800 BilCoal $ 700 BilEmissions Eur 48 BilWheat $ 50 BilCotton $ 20 BilSugar$ 40 BilAluminium$ 101 BilCopper $ 132 BilZinc $ 28 Bil Steel $ 700 BilGold$ 82 BilSilver $ 13 Bil
Commodities Derivatives Trading represents in comparison : $ 300 Bil turnover /day
2. Commodities markets have some intrinsic characteristics:
High Volatilities & SpikesLong term trendsSeasonalityHigh speculationPhysical deliveryVery sensitive to International PoliticsPrice not all the time driven by fundamentals like production, stocksEach commodity markets have their own regulation & standards Energy Commodities have a strong interrelationship together
*Trends & Cycles
*Trends & Cycles
*Trends & Fundamentals
*Interrelationships within the energy market EmissionsPowerGasLPGOil ProductsCrude OilRefining MarginBioFuelsCoal
*Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate$/bbl+210% in 15 months
*US Gasoline RBOB+185% in 15 months
*Coal API2+320% in 26 months
*Gold Spot+350% in 6 years & +150% in 8 months
*Corn +250% in 16 months
*Soybean+300% in 15 months
*Wheat+416% in 15 months
*Base MetalsPrice of H.G. Aluminium relative to other base metalsNickelZincAluminium CopperJan 2003 Price = 100
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208.7181381603477.6174393614470.8549222798543.4599156118
204.6545991873476.819158735452.9792746114529.9578059072
202.1425932767475.8980657046449.481865285526.582278481
203.5463612856481.1175928769449.481865285513.9240506329
203.7680088659491.8636782315459.1968911917509.7046413502
203.2508311784482.6527479275455.9585492228530.7172995781
202.364240857483.5738409579450.1295336788519.4092827004
200.9604728482470.9855695425435.2331606218504.641350211
195.4192833395472.2136935831433.9378238342491.9831223629
195.936461027475.5910346945437.8238341969492.8270042194
196.8969338751465.4590113601445.5958549223487.7637130802
195.6409309198458.7043291372439.1191709845474.2616033755
192.2423346878457.4762050967431.3471502591455.6962025316
191.3557443665463.9238563095434.585492228449.7890295359
191.5773919468455.3269880258426.8134715026463.2911392405
188.5482083487448.879336813418.3937823834460.7594936709
187.8832656077413.877801658387.3056994819447.2573839662
182.4898411526430.4574762051397.6683937824423.6286919831
184.3369043221431.0715382254398.3160621762438.8185654008
183.00701884428.3082591342387.9533678756440.5063291139
183.00701884439.0543444888402.2020725389458.9873417722
185.8145548578445.2563708935408.0310880829475.1054852321
187.0705578131449.1863678232405.4404145078469.1983122363
189.7303287772446.7301197421398.3160621762467.5105485232
186.6272626524452.5637089346398.3160621762467.4261603376
186.7750277059454.4058949954393.7823834197469.1983122363
186.9227927595458.090267117402.8497409326477.6371308017
187.9571481345453.7918329751393.7823834197502.9535864979
183.0809013668448.879336813382.1243523316502.9535864979
181.0860731437439.6684065091365.2849740933484.388185654
180.642777983448.2652747928365.932642487460.7594936709
182.4898411526440.4973902364359.4559585492461.1814345992
180.7905430366439.6684065091350.2590673575455.6962025316
179.0912449206459.0113601474357.5129533679451.0548523207
181.6032508312455.6340190359357.5129533679455.6962025316
180.2733653491462.879950875371.7616580311457.3839662447
183.2286664204463.6168252994369.170984456470.8860759494
179.5345400813460.546515198360.103626943482.7004219409
176.9486516439465.7660423703367.8756476684489.4514767932
177.8352419653484.1879029782386.5284974093518.9873417722
183.5241965275484.4949339883376.1658031088570.4641350211
180.4211304027484.1879029782372.9274611399550.2109704641
177.8352419653493.7058642923378.8860103627545.1476793249
177.9830070188490.9425852011378.8860103627558.6497890295
181.4554857776487.5652440897386.6580310881549.3670886076
182.342076099492.4777402518398.3160621762547.6793248945
184.5585519025492.4777402518395.0777202073536.7088607595
186.1839674917498.0042984341401.5544041451514.7679324895
186.7011451792501.0746085355397.0207253886513.0801687764
183.7458441079509.6714768192402.8497409326518.1434599156
183.376431474503.5308566165391.8393782383532.0675105485
179.0173623938504.1449186368395.725388601519.8312236287
179.5345400813488.7933681302382.1243523316529.9578059072
176.3575914296494.9339883328387.9533678756508.8607594937
179.0173623938502.302732576397.0207253886518.1434599156
182.1943110454496.1621123733397.6683937824531.5611814346
182.4898411526495.241019343404.792746114541.7721518987
185.07572959500.4605465152406.7357512953540.0843881857
184.1891392686494.3199263126394.4300518135539.2405063291
184.706316956489.1003991403385.3626943005536.7088607595
185.4451422239482.6527479275384.7150259067536.7088607595
188.4743258219483.2668099478382.7720207254548.5232067511
188.9176209826476.5121277249373.0569948187544.3037974684
186.7011451792478.6613447958377.2020725389535.864978903
186.3317325453472.2136935831367.2279792746535.864978903
184.3369043221476.819158735371.1139896373519.8312236287
185.6667898042483.2668099478375.6476683938532.4894514768
187.5138529738481.7316548971376.2953367876536.7088607595
186.5533801256476.5121277249368.5233160622532.4894514768
186.3317325453474.362910654365.932642487534.1772151899
188.0310306612460.8535462082354.9222797927542.6160337553
187.7355005541456.5551120663358.6787564767546.835443038
193.7199852235454.7129260055352.9792746114544.3037974684
192.8333949021459.3183911575365.2849740933533.3333333333
195.2715182859449.1863678232357.5129533679542.6160337553
193.7938677503442.1246545901359.4559585492542.6160337553
194.3110454378431.6856002456352.3316062176550.6329113924
192.8333949021427.0801350936342.9404145078570.4641350211
189.8780938308425.2379490329343.2642487047568.776371308
190.3952715183437.8262204483351.3601036269565.4008438819
192.7595123753425.483573841335.4922279793564.5569620253
189.804211304432.2996622659328.0440414508535.0210970464
188.4004432952417.2551427694299.2227979275530.8016877637
185.3712596971417.2551427694305.6994818653503.7974683544
187.9571481345400.061406202286.2694300518512.6582278481
186.2578500185403.1317163033289.8316062176501.2658227848
184.706316956412.0356155972296.3082901554493.6708860759
184.3369043221414.4918636782310.8808290155487.3417721519
185.4451422239405.5879643844308.225388601489.4514767932
185.2973771703412.3426466073320.5958549223485.864978903
185.4451422239422.4746699417323.8341968912474.2616033755
185.0018470632429.8434141848332.9015544041456.9620253165
184.706316956417.5621737796322.8626943005459.0717299578
181.677133358411.1145225668312.8238341969452.3206751055
182.6745474695411.1145225668312.8238341969435.4430379747
182.0834872553412.9567086276311.5284974093439.6624472574
181.5663095678424.3168560025316.7098445596436.7088607595
183.5611377909419.0973288302308.9378238342462.447257384
182.0834872553418.7902978201310.8808290155443.8818565401
182.1204285187409.8863985263317.3575129534445.5696202532
180.8644255634401.9035922628307.6424870466443.8818565401
178.9065386036400.6754682223301.4896373057435.864978903
178.278537126390.8504758981296.9559585492448.1012658228
177.6505356483391.7715689285299.8704663212433.7552742616
178.4632434429400.9824992324299.8704663212439.6624472574
179.5345400813402.5176542831300.518134715450.6329113924
178.7587735501420.0184218606312.8238341969445.5696202532
178.943479867423.0580288609319.3005181347456.5400843882
178.6110084965419.4043598403314.1191709845458.2278481013
178.6479497599409.8863985263306.9948186529445.5696202532
177.9830070188414.7988946884317.4870466321443.8818565401
180.1256002955428.001228124333.5492227979459.0717299578
185.07572959424.3168560025323.1865284974488.6075949367
182.1943110454424.3168560025322.5388601036475.9493670886
182.342076099443.9668406509334.1968911917475.9493670886
185.07572959443.3527786306323.8341968912504.5569620253
184.1152567418441.5105925698316.0621761658497.8902953586
183.9674916882448.2652747928309.585492228484.388185654
185.740672331454.4058949954310.2331606218483.5443037975
188.2526782416439.6684065091297.9274611399494.5147679325
183.5980790543429.8434141848295.3367875648480.1687763713
182.4159586258429.2907583666295.9844559586470.8860759494
180.1994828223438.5016886706305.0518134715465.8227848101
181.0121906169421.8606079214288.2124352332485.6540084388
178.0568895456431.0715382254298.5751295337467.5105485232
179.7561876616421.8606079214286.2694300518464.135021097
178.4263021795431.0715382254292.2279792746454.0928270042
181.9726634651431.0715382254295.3367875648459.9156118143
186.1839674917433.5277863064296.6321243523453.5864978903
185.5929072774447.7126189745308.2901554404455.6962025316
195.4192833395439.6684065091304.4041450777468.2700421941
195.0498707056451.3355848941325.7772020725459.9156118143
200.2216475803443.9668406509320.5958549223462.447257384
196.1581086073445.8090267117319.9481865285472.5738396624
196.8969338751437.8262204483306.9948186529457.3839662447
193.7938677503450.1074608535308.9378238342452.3206751055
195.2715182859463.0027632791304.4041450777454.0084388186
198.2268193572472.8277556033317.3575129534463.2911392405
199.1134096786476.819158735318.6528497409477.6371308017
198.7439970447484.3721215843321.8911917098474.2616033755
196.0842260805477.7402517654312.8238341969474.2616033755
198.8178795715471.5996315628304.5336787565472.5738396624
207.3143701515474.6699416641299.8704663212470.8860759494
208.3487255264489.6530549586306.3471502591466.2447257384
208.7181381603502.9167945963316.7098445596466.6666666667
212.1906169191500.4605465152312.1761658031475.9493670886
212.9294421869517.3472520725328.3678756477474.2616033755
217.5840413742511.51366288323.7046632124493.6708860759
215.7369782047503.5308566165323.5751295337479.3248945148
214.4070927226508.1363217685323.1865284974476.8776371308
219.8743997045517.9613140927347.7979274611471.7299578059
228.3708902844522.5667792447361.3989637306492.8270042194
232.2866642039517.6542830826354.9222797927524.8945147679
229.4791281862519.4964691434356.8652849741531.6455696203
Al
Copper
Zinc
Nickel
Stocks
Date (GMT)Last1998199920002001200220032004200520062007
05/01/19981/5/981_19986220251609736.25700972.5771305357996.590909091835284.0909090911228414.130434781435373.86363636689587.5672504.761904762712960.227272727
06/01/19981/6/981_19986242502572415806881.25837691.666666667451561.25889562.512106051411732.5632172.5735182.5769172.5
07/01/19981/7/981_19986231003554048.863636364814766.304347826812779.347826087474862.5974448.751254061.90476191322009.7826087567792.857142857784969.565217391804406.818181818
08/01/19981/8/981_19986214254528038.75800390716615.277777778468753.9473684211059928.571428571222980.681818181179763.0952381546792.857142857753916.666666667816372.368421053
09/01/19981/9/981_19986194255530894.736842105774794.736842105632285.714285714518945.2380952381133910.227272731163204.545454551109157.14285714552832.5763719.047619048833879.761904762
12/01/19981/12/981_19986169256545918.181818182761021.590909091556670.454545455609302.3809523811200163.888888891129090.47619048994892.045454545550000766465.909090909828295.238095238
13/01/19981/13/981_19986177507502842.391304348746017.045454545490369.047619048629628.4090909091260955.434782611235259.7826087909971.590909091529976.190476191742302.380952381832810.227272727
14/01/19981/14/981_19986148008461307.5779317.857142857429267.045454545670202.2727272731294942.857142861326179.76190476799984.523809524515901.136363636703529.545454545832901.136363636
15/01/19981/15/981_19986128509483913.636363636796805.681818182381635.714285714690473.751296120.238095241358314.77272727710565.909090909513259.090909091703953.571428571903952.5
16/01/19981/16/981_199861280010519646.590909091790301.190476191345372.727272727717658.6956521741283305.434782611372335.86956522699319.047619048501491.666666667687038.636363636936413.461538462
19/01/19981/19/981_199861085011534955.952380952784098.863636364328114.772727273695519.3181818181287313.09523811381220720582.954545455554102.272727273680380.681818182
20/01/19981/20/981_199860902512598155.952380952768826.25308498.684210526771277.9411764711250590.789473681402691.30434783703890.476190476635763.75681717.105263158
21/01/19981/21/981_1998606550
22/01/19981/22/981_1998605125
23/01/19981/23/981_1998603100
26/01/19981/26/981_1998601400
27/01/19981/27/981_1998598550
28/01/19981/28/981_1998594375
29/01/19981/29/981_1998591500
30/01/19981/30/981_1998588900
02/02/19982/2/982_1998586075
03/02/19982/3/982_1998584350
04/02/19982/4/982_1998582100
05/02/19982/5/982_1998579725
06/02/19982/6/982_1998577600
09/02/19982/9/982_1998574900
10/02/19982/10/982_1998572775
11/02/19982/11/982_1998570425
12/02/19982/12/982_1998568600
13/02/19982/13/982_1998567575
16/02/19982/16/982_1998567175
17/02/19982/17/982_1998569450
18/02/19982/18/982_1998567875
19/02/19982/19/982_1998568200
20/02/19982/20/982_1998568350
23/02/19982/23/982_1998570075
24/02/19982/24/982_1998569250
25/02/19982/25/982_1998570650
26/02/19982/26/982_1998567750
27/02/19982/27/982_1998565400
02/03/19983/2/983_1998566725
03/03/19983/3/983_1998564700
04/03/19983/4/983_1998561400
05/03/19983/5/983_1998561025
06/03/19983/6/983_1998559475
09/03/19983/9/983_1998560750
10/03/19983/10/983_1998560475
11/03/19983/11/983_1998557600
12/03/19983/12/983_1998555275
13/03/19983/13/983_1998554425
16/03/19983/16/983_1998556125
17/03/19983/17/983_1998552450
18/03/19983/18/983_1998553000
19/03/19983/19/983_1998553125
20/03/19983/20/983_1998551025
23/03/19983/23/983_1998548700
24/03/19983/24/983_1998547250
25/03/19983/25/983_1998545800
26/03/19983/26/983_1998545175
27/03/19983/27/983_1998545050
30/03/19983/30/983_1998544950
31/03/19983/31/983_1998544575
01/04/19984/1/984_1998545650
02/04/19984/2/984_1998543550
03/04/19984/3/984_1998540750
06/04/19984/6/984_1998537375
07/04/19984/7/984_1998535650