V 6.0
Joseph F. Dellaria, Jr., Ph.D.
Founder and Principal
(651) 436-6494
mobile: (651) 216-1563
www.PerceptiveRealities.com
1 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights
Reserved Confidential, For Private Use Only
®
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What does the dog expect to happen when
he clicks “EMPTY TRASH”?
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There is a disconnect between –
Perception and Reality!
3 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
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Disciplined-Yet-Flexible (D-y-F) Thinking
4
• Feasibility
- Can or Cannot Work
• Risk/Cost
- High or Low
© 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
• Information Status
- Rich or Poor
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Career Highlights • Training: Ph.D. in synthetic organic chemistry
5
• Research and Discovery Experience: over 30 years of doing and/or managing
research
• Publication Summary:
- Co-inventor on 63 patents
- Author/co-author on 30 peer reviewed articles
- Author “The IDEA Formula”
© 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
• Other: - International Speaker - Inventor
- Consultant/Trainer - Workshop leader
- Numerous invited and professional lectures
• Founder: Perceptive Realities – Finding Better Ideas Faster
V 4.1 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria,, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only 6
Companies and People who have saved time and
money while “Finding Better Ideas Faster:”
- R&D Division of a Fortune 100 Company
- R&D Division of a mid-sized Company
- Government Department needing new processes
- Personal Testimonies for life decisions
V 4.1 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria,, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only 7
Case Study 1: Major division at 3M:
Situation: 27 new project ideas needed to be qualified
Time: Identified the best projects in 40% of the time
Resources: Used less than 20% of the resources normally used
Estimated Savings: $1 million in time alone
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Confidential, For Private Use Only V
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Savings :
• 62% savings in time = $ 1.09 million
• 83% fewer FTEs
• Estimated lab expenses $4.75 million
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According to Dr. Eric Klinger of the University
of Minnesota:
9 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
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V 6.0
According to Dr. Eric Klinger of the University
of Minnesota:
• Americans make up to 17,000 decisions per day
– some trivial ...
– others are life-changing ...
10 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
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V 6.0 11
• Feasibility
- Can or Cannot Work
• Risk/Cost
- High or Low
© 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
• Information Status
- Rich or Poor
Disciplined-Yet-Flexible (D-y-F) Thinking
V 6.0
Information Poor Situations
Can Be
BIG Trouble
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BIG
Quake Lake-Yellowstone Nat’l Park
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Confidential, For Private Use Only 13
Point of Information
Poor Decision
Note dark storm clouds
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3-4 feet
Note single hair
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41 inches
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Information Rich and Poor Situations
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Any situation where existing information CAN
PROVE whether the outcome will be positive
or negative.
(Sufficient information exists to prove the outcome.)
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4.1
19 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
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Any situation where existing information CAN NOT
PROVE whether the outcome will be
positive or negative.
(New information must be created to determine the outcome.)
20 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
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Can or Cannot Work
New Information must be created.
This is done by doing a test or experiment.
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Desired Destination
Smaller Mountain Top
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Desired Destination
Smaller Mountain Top
Question:
Do you know whether you
can get to the snow
covered mountain top from
where you are now?
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V 6.0 26 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
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A
b
y
s
s
Cool, let’s
Go!
It maybe too
much work!
No way!
Not Now.
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A
b
y
s
s
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Applying Information Rich and Poor
Situations to Real Life Situations
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Storm Sewer Grate
Is this information Rich or Poor?
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6 Ducklings 5 Ducklings
Information Rich?
i.e. when is there enough information to prove the outcome?
V 6.0 31 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
6 Ducklings 5 Ducklings 1 Duckling
Information Rich?
i.e. when is there enough information to prove the outcome?
V 6.0 32 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
If you are losing ducklings, stop! 6 Ducklings 5 Ducklings 1 Duckling
[See slide 75 for the entire sequence]
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Is this information Rich or Poor?
V 6.0 34 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
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Is this information Rich or Poor?
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Group Exercise
Answer the questions on the handout for your group.
35 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
Information Rich
Any situation where existing
information CAN prove
whether the outcome will be
positive or negative.
(Sufficient information exists to prove the
outcome.)
Information Poor
Any situation where existing
information CAN NOT prove
whether the outcome will be
positive or negative.
(New information must be created to determine
the outcome.)
V 6.0 36 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
POOR? RICH?
Will this bomb detonate when dropped from 4-5 feet?
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POOR? RICH?
LINK: https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=nhl+standings
Based on the standings below, can you predict
who will win the 2016 Stanley Cup?
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POOR? RICH?
LINK: http://www.climatestations.com/images/stories/minneapolis/mspsnowm.gif
Will we have 9.4” of snow accumulation
in March of 2016?
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Confidential, For Private Use Only
POOR? RICH?
A picture of a neighborhood in Gilchrist, Texas after Hurricane Ike (category 2) went through in 2008.
Bonus: Can this house withstand a category 5 hurricane?
Can this house withstand a category 2 hurricane?
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POOR? RICH?
Can the bridge hold the weight of this modular home?
V 6.0 41 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
POOR? RICH? Picric Acid
Crystals
SITUATION: Picric acid is a close relative of TNT and has similar explosive power. It is stable
indefinitely in water. However, as a dry crystalline material, it is shock sensitive and can blow at
the slightest bump. We found two jars of picric acid when cleaning out our chemical storage
room. There was no visible water in either jar and crystals, similar to those shown above, filled
one side of each jar . Can the jars be opened without detonating them?
Will the picric acid detonate when opening the jar?
V 6.0 42 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
POOR? RICH?
SITUATION: Two fires occurred at separate California golf courses during the 2010 drought. It
was known that, “The common denominator was each golfer used a titanium club and hit the
ball just out of bounds next to dry vegetation where the ground was extremely rocky.“
In the lab, scientists painstakingly recreated the course conditions on the days of the fires. Using
high-speed cameras and electron microscopes, they found that if hit upon a rock, clubs
containing titanium can produce sparks of up to 3,000 degrees that will burn for more than a
second.
Can a titanium golf club start a fire upon striking a rock?
V 6.0 43 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
Has this happened in industry?
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Late 1970s – Early 1980s Minivan
• Hal Sperlich was fired at Ford
- He tried to champion FWD cars and the minivan
44
• Moved to Chrysler who was on the brink of failure
- Successfully championed both
• Record sales saved Chrysler
- K-car and minivan
© 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
V 6.0
A Quote From Hal
• “Had Ford done the front-drive cars and minivans
we tried so hard to get them to do, I doubt
Chrysler would be around today and Ford would
be bigger and stronger than it is.”
45 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
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Existing Business New Opportunity
• Blockbusters . . . . . . . . . . . . . Netflix
• ABC and NBC . . . . . . . . . . . . CNN
• IBM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Microsoft
• AT&T . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Internet
• UPS and US postal service . . FedEx
• Sotheby’s and Christie's . . . . eBay
• Borders and Sears . . . . . . . . . Amazon.com
• RCA and Sony . . . . . . . . . . . . iPod
• Maxwell house . . . . . . . . . . . . Starbucks
• Visa or MasterCard . . . . . . . . PayPal
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In each case the leader in the field was:
• Focusing on optimizing their current position
47
• The new opportunity was Information Poor
© 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
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V 6.0
Information Rich, “Can Work” ideas are
• Easier to recognize
• Easier to reduce to practice
• Competitive (others can see it)
48 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
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V 6.0
Information Poor, “Can Work” ideas are
• Tougher to recognize
• Tougher to reduce to practice
• Most always lead to an innovation
• Appear to be “Maybe” ideas at the outset
49 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
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V 6.0
An Example of an Information Poor,
“Can Work” idea
50 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
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In the late 1970’s:
Computer memory was
on reel-to-reel tape.
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51 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
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Today:
A flash drive, or thumb
drive, holds more
memory than an
entire tape reel
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Can Always Work:
The science and
technology to make
this work could
ALWAYS WORK.
1st patents: 1999
1st product: 2000
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4.1
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V 6.0 54 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
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Type Of Memory
Information Status Product Status Feasibility of Idea Working Late 1970’s 2000 Late 1970’s 2000
Reel-to-Reel Rich Rich Leading Technology
Obsolete Technology
Can Work Always
Flash Drive Poor Rich Did Not Exist
New Dominant
Technology
Can Work Always
Reality
Perception
A B
C D
V 6.0 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria,, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only 55
Perception: Inf. Rich
Reality: Can Work
Perception: Inf. Poor
Reality: Can Work
Reality: Cannot Work
Perception: Inf. Rich
Reality: Cannot Work
Perception: Inf. Poor
Information Rich Information Poor
Can W
ork
C
annot
Work
M
AY
B
E
S
Reality
Perception
A B
C D
V 6.0 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria,, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only 56
Perception: Inf. Rich
Reality: Can Work
Perception: Inf. Poor
Reality: Can Work
Reality: Can Not Work
Perception: Inf. Rich
Reality: Can Not Work
Perception: Inf. Poor
Information Rich Information Poor
Can W
ork
C
annot
Work
Competition Innovation
V 6.0 57
• Feasibility
- Can or Cannot Work
• Risk/Cost
- High or Low
© 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
• Information Status
- Rich or Poor
Technical
Business
Disciplined-Yet-Flexible (D-y-F) Thinking
V 6.0 58 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Business
Opportunity
Value
(Can it work
financially?)
+
Technical
Opportunity
Value
(Can it work
technically?)
= Total
Idea
Value
- All ideas generate a score and ...
- Ideas with a disqualifying flaw ...
V 6.0 59 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Business
Opportunity
Value
(Can it work
financially?)
x Technical
Opportunity
Value
(Can it work
technically?)
= Total
Idea
Value
- Ideas with a disqualifying flaw ...
- Highest value ideas ...
V 6.0 60 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Business
Opportunity
Value
(Can it work
financially?)
x Technical
Opportunity
Value
(Can it work
technically?)
= Total
Idea
Value
The IDEA Formula
V 6.0 V
4.1
61 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Idea
Technical Opportunity
(Can it Work)
Business Opportunity
(Market, Financial,
Organizational) Additive Score
Multiplicative Score
1 10 0 10 0
2 0 10 10 0
3 5 5 10 25
V 6.0 V
4.1
62 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Idea
Technical Opportunity
(Can it Work)
Business Opportunity
(Market, Financial,
Organizational) Additive Score
Multiplicative Score
1 10 0 10 0
2 0 10 10 0
3 5 5 10 25
V 6.0 63 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
The final step is to determine whether
the risk associated with pursuing the
idea is acceptable.
V 6.0 64
• Feasibility
- Can or Cannot Work
• Risk/Cost
- High or Low
© 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
• Information Status
- Rich or Poor
Disciplined-Yet-Flexible (D-y-F) Thinking
V 6.0
Late 1970s – Early 1980s Minivan
• Hal Sperlich was fired at Ford
- He tried to champion FWD cars and the minivan
65
• Moved to Chrysler who was on the brink of failure
- Successfully championed both
• Resulting record sales saved Chrysler
- K-car and minivan
© 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
V 6.0
Late 1970s – Early 1980s Minivan
• Hal Sperlich was fired at Ford –
- He tried to champion FWD cars and the minivan
66
• Moved to Chrysler who was on the brink of failure
- Successfully championed both
• Sales records saved Chrysler –
- K-car and minivan
© 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
Risk Was:
Unacceptable
Acceptable
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Different people have different risk tolerances
• Risk Averse – no risk is acceptable
67
• Risk Tolerant – situational, some risk is
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx acceptable, some is not
• Risk Oblivious – risk, what is risk?
© 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
V 6.0
Pro’s Con’s
• Risk Averse – few, if any, big few, if any, big
w losses wins
68
• Risk Tolerant – some big some big
w wins losses
• Risk Oblivious – many big many big
w wins losses
© 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
V 6.0 69 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
Rich
High Poor
Low Risk
Info
rmat
ion P
oor/
Ric
h
Information: Rich
Risk: High
Action: Go for it!
If the idea Can Work.
Information: Poor
Risk: High
Action: Don’t go/Wait for
more info. The situation should
be avoided. You have high risk
with little knowledge.
Information: Rich
Risk: Low
Action: Go for it!
You know the situation Can
Work and risk is low.
Information: Poor
Risk: Low
Action: Go for it!
You have little to lose. It may
be faster to try it than to
create new information.
Information: Intermediate
Risk: Intermediate
Action: Depends on the
situation! If the gain of
success is greater than the
risk – go cautiously.
V 6.0
Each team should be prepared to answer the
following questions:
• Who faces the biggest risk for your situation?
70
• Is the risk high, medium, or low for them?
• If you had to make the decision to go or not go
for your situation, which would you do? Why? © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
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Situation 1 Situation 2 Situation 3
Situation 4 Situation 5 Situation 6
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Situation 7
V 6.0 73
• Feasibility
- Can or Cannot Work
• Risk/Cost
- High or Low
© 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
• Information Status
- Rich or Poor
• Information poor situations are dangerous
• You have to work on information poor ideas
to find innovative ideas
• The IDEA Formula
Business
Opportunity
Value
x
Technical
Opportunity
Value
=
Total
Idea
Value
• Risk must be assessed in each situation
• Before acting - understand the risk as well
as possible
Disciplined-Yet-Flexible (D-y-F) Thinking
74 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
Confidential, For Private Use Only
To Order The Book Go To:
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Or Get a signed copy today:
$20
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V 6.0 75 © 2007 Joseph F. Dellaria, All Rights Reserved
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6 Ducklings 5 Ducklings 1 Duckling
Information Rich?
i.e. when is there enough information to prove the outcome?