Miaad KhayatianTim EldridgePaul Fisher
Rapid assessment of future transport needs
for Perth
1. Background
2. Approach
3. Methodology
4. Outcomes
5. Summary & conclusion
6. Acknowledgement
Presentation structure
Background Perth & Peel Regions
Metropolitan Region SchemeGrew out of Stephenson Hepburn Plan
Population2014: 1.8 m2031: 2.6 m2052: 3.5 m
Background Scenarios
Directions 31 sets out 3 development scenarios:• Polycentric city• Development concentrated around regional
activity centres• Dispersed• Business as usual – suburban sprawl
• Semi-polycentric• Hybrid of the two
Background Urban Economic Study
DoP appointed Pracsys to deliver economic study of 3 scenarios.
Main cost drivers:• Water• Energy• Transport
GHD undertook transport component
Background Urban Economic Study
Study is in two phases:
1. Proof of concept (finished)
2. More detailed analysis (under way)
Approach Type of model
• Time & budget constraints• Rapid, low cost, high level output required• Conventional modelling not suitable
Rapid assessment approach• Trip generation• Demand per corridor• Existing capacity• Required infrastructure
Methodology Trip generation
DoP and Pracsys generated• 621 employment zones• 175 residential zones• Home – work trips (gravity model)
GHD generated• 56 zones mapped to the Pracsys zones• Total morning peak trip numbers
Methodology Travel corridors
• Spiderweb diagram• Travel corridors v planning corridors• Adjust trips to corridors
Methodology Screenlines
Screenlines placed strategically across corridors42 screenlines in proof of concept study140 screenlines in detailed study
Methodology Capacity and shortfall
At each screenline:
a) Calculate demandFrom spiderweb diagram
b) Calculate existing capacityRoad, rail, bus
c) Shortfall = demand – existing capacity
Methodology Spreadsheet model
Methodology Required infrastructure
Infrastructure recommendations
informed by:• 2031 Public Transport Master Plan • Moving People• Moving Freight • Other forward planning
Methodology Required infrastructure
New infrastructure suggested
1.Additional road and freeway lanes where already planned
2.Better utilisation of existing roads3.Improved heavy rail capacity4.Bus lanes and bus rapid transit5.New light rail6.New heavy rail
Methodology Required infrastructure
Outcomes PT mode share
Proof of concept 2011 2031 2052Current 10%Modelling outcome 40% 60%Agency target 14% 19%
Outcomes Costs
Scenario
Population
Polycentric($ billion)
Semi-polycentric($ billion)
Dispersed($ billion)
Current to 2.6 million
14.86 17.01 14.18
2.6 to 3.5 million
17.90 21.60 34.84
Total 32.76 38.61 49.02
Outcomes Some key points
• CBD environs will remain largest employment centre• Up to 2.6 M population, current PT
planning is adequate• After 2.6 M, new links needed rapidly• Northern suburbs railway will hit capacity
before 2031 – new East Wanneroo railway required• North / central corridor (Mirrabooka to
CBD) is a weak link
Outcomes Some key points
• Legacy railways have excess capacity• Extra capacity needs to be achieved from
existing roads• Spatial location of population and
employment is key to good transport outcomes.
Conclusion Proof of concept
Rapid, low cost, high level assessment of infrastructure requirement
• Three development scenarios with two population targets
• Method relies on simple arithmetic and engineering judgement – agreed with transport agencies
• Proof of concept model is coarse-grained but results pass sanity test
• Mode share skewed to PT
Conclusion Next steps
• More fine-grained analysis under way• Revised population / employment
distribution• More zones, corridors and screenlines• Mode share needs attention
Acknowledgements
• Department of Planning, Western Australia
• Pracsys
• Department of Transport
• Public Transport Authority
• Main Roads Western Australia
Email: [email protected]
www.ghd.com