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httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 19
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$1 billion Madness contest not justchance BuffettMatthew J Belvedere | Matt_BelvedereFriday 14 Mar 2014 | 931 AM ET
COMMENTS Join the Discussion
I should be institutionalized Warren Buffett joked on CNBC Fridaymdash
talking about how hes feeling about Berkshire Hathaways part in insuring
a contest by Quicken Loans to offer a billion dollars for the perfect March
Madness bracket
Buffett said in a Squawk Box interview that the odds are much better than
just a coin-flip on each gamemdashwhich would yield about a 1 in 9 quintillion
chance in winning
(Read more Buffett Id besurprised if stock prices drop 50 )
Appearing with Buffett Quicken Loans founder Dan Gilbert said When I
heard quintillion I was going to say Warren do we need insurance here
But of course the answer was yes Gilbert added
The odds of winning increase when you look at some of the historical results
in the tournament Buffett explained The No 1 seed team has beaten the
No 16 team over 100 times in a row The No 2 seed almost always beats
the No 15 seed
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692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
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If four No 1 teams make it to Final Four Im going into the witness protection
program Buffett joked
Adam Jeffery | CNBC
Dan Gilbert and Warren Buffett
Quicken Loansmdashwhose founder owns the NBAs Cleveland Cavaliersmdashsaid
the billion-dollar prize would be shared by any qualified contest participant
who predicts the winners of every game
Gilbert said Buffett pitched him the idea for the contest after they toured
Detroitmdashlooking at the progress being made in the bankrupt city where
Quicken is based
Asked if the cost of the insurance was $10 million Gilbert said that number
was in the ballparkmdashadding that working with Buffett was really easy No red-
tape no committees
People say how do you price this thing You price it for two things You price
it for one that everyone will get it right and secondly that someone will figure
out a way to beat the game Buffett saidmdashadding he believes hackers will
try
If we get past the first 32 games and there are say 200 people left he
continued Ill print out all their brackets and sleep on them
The billion dollars would be paid in 40 annual installments of $25 million
each The winner (or winners) may also choose to get a lump sum payment of
$500 million (or share in that amount)
Yahoo Sports designed the online bracket experience and its hosting the
destination for the challenge
The first 15 million qualified entrants to complete the registration process will
be eligible to win the billion dollars The window to enter closes at 1 am EDT
on Thursday March 20
In addition to the potential grand prize Quicken said it will award $100000
for each of the 20 most accurate imperfect brackets in the contest to use
toward buying refinancing or remodeling a home
Quicken will also be directly donating $1 million to nonprofit education
organizations in Detroit and Cleveland
FEATURED
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mealA lunch with Warren Buffett has been bought by
Andy Chua from Singapore for 2166766 in an
annual charity auction
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Francisco charity has drawn a bid of more than
$1 million surpassing last years top offering
Why Buffett and Google love theMojaveThe US is the third-largest solar market and
its growing rapidly because of private
investment and federal support
Two stocks costing Buffett $500M thisyearWarren Buffett may have a magic touch with
stocks but two stocks have tarnished that touch
for the year USA Today reports
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692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 39
Email Please Select Job Industry SIGN UP
Warren Buffett Watch Warren Buffett Berkshire Hathaway Inc
College Basketball Sports College Sports Matthew J Belvedere
Yahoo Inc Squawk Box US
mdashBy CNBCs Matthew J Belvedere Follow him on Twitter
Matt_SquawkCNBC
Introducing Morning Squawk CNBCs before the bell news roundup
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28 Comments CNBC Login
Sort by Newest Share
Join the discussionhellip
bull Reply bull
kd katz bull 3 months ago
Why give your private information in the forlorn hope of winning a billion
The odds arent quite as bad as 2 to the 32nd power-to-1 (some games
are easy to pick the winner) but still impossible odds
bull Reply bull
Min Min Oo bull 3 months ago
1 in 9223372036854775808 might be incorrect I think the odd is 1 in
2 32 + 2 16 + 2 8 +2 4+2 2+2 or 4295033110
2
bull Reply bull
Andy Domonkos bull 3 months ago
Lottery culture smoke and mirrors
bull Reply bull
Tao4mind bull 3 months ago
My little sister needs new shoes
1
bull Reply bull
ANTISOCIAL bull 3 months ago
dont waist your time this is simply an advertisement for Quicken
Loans
bull Reply bull
DAVID LEBLANC bull 3 months ago ANTISOCIAL
warren buffet validates it
2
bull Reply bull
JGRUMBY bull 3 months ago
I just did some fast math I assumed that a smart person could pick a 1-
16 game 99 of the time a 2-15 game 97 of the time a 3-14 game
95 of the time a 4-13 game 90 of the time a 5-12 game 80 of the
time etc down to 8-9 games being 55 For the second round I have
1-8 games at 80 down to 55 for 4-5 games Etc
With that the probability of getting all 63 games correct (I dont think the
4 play-in games are included in the contest) is about 1 in 5 billion
Tweak the s however you would like but if Quicken payed Buffett $10
million to guarantee $1 billion they were ripped off big-time
4
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1 Highest Dividend Stocks
2 Long-Term Investments
3 Warren Buffett Stock Picks
4 Top Stock Picks
5 10 Best ETFs
Sponsored
692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 59
bull Reply bull
idster bull 3 months ago JGRUMBY
Youre not considering that the events are not independent If a
person makes an accurate prediction on one game its more
likely that his or her prediction on another game is correct
bull Reply bull
JGRUMBY bull 3 months ago idster
Each game IS an independent event One miss and you
are out so only those who get every game right are even
in contention By assigned significant weights to the
likelihood of outcomes Ive already assumed an intelligent
person making picks Someone making random picks
would have odds of 5050 on each game and thus have a
probability of success of 2 63 which is a number in the
trillions
1 in 5 billion is about as good as it gets even if Dick Vitale
were picking the games
bull Reply bull
idster bull 3 months ago JGRUMBY
Each game is an independent event but the
successful prediction of each game is not an
independent event You may be skeptical of this
but there have been NFL playoff seasons in which
Ive been able to ascertain a story line that allows
me to predict the outcome of multiple games--
even when those games finished close those
close finishes were in the cards The year the
Colts beat the Bears in the Super Bowl I predicted
the outcome of all 11 playoff games and many of
those were close finishes andor upsets I dont
have as keen an insight on college basketball but I
would bet the best performers out there do better
than how that model predicts they would do Re
Dick Vitale Ive picked better than Terry
Bradshaw And Ive certainly done better than
David Tuley who handicaps football games on
ESPN
bull Reply bull
JGRUMBY bull 3 months ago idster
There are statistics are there is luck Unless you
are implying that the games are fixed (either by
gamblers aliens or some other higher power)
and that you can tap into that and predict
outcomes with certainty then it is unrealistic to
expect someone to predict with significantly
greater certainty than historical realities
As to your NFL predicting prowess move to
Vegas and cash in dude
bull Reply bull
Amanda bull 3 months ago
This evil guy should go to hell
2
fightingpillow bull 3 months ago
Probably easier to hack a users account than to try beating the system
So make sure your passwords and security questions are pretty good
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692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 69
bull Reply bull
So make sure your passwords and security questions are pretty good
3
bull Reply bull
Sapir-Whorf bull 3 months ago
For $1B a college basketball game would never ever I repeat never
ever be thrown Mom needs a new house
1
bull Reply bull
Trueth bull 3 months ago
Sounds like Quicken is making a lot of money They must offer high
rates to yield so much cash
1
bull Reply bull
JGRUMBY bull 3 months ago
Jeepers people relax BRK is worth over $150 bil in market cap and
usually has at least $20 bil in cash If Quicken paid $10 million for a
policy to ensure $1 bil they were robbed The odds of someone winning
this even accounting for 16s v 1s etc is still hundreds of millions or
billions to one Quicken should have paid about $500 for their insurance
policy and only that because about $450 would have covered the
overhead
3
bull Reply bull
Adam bull 3 months ago
Ok you morons its an impossible task Warren is wiling to do this
because its mathmatically impossible for anyone to win it can not be
done and so its just a gimmick to get Quicken loans to add 15 Million
people to their marketing database Do you know how Buffet made
majority of his money Insurance businesses Its all mathmatics
3
bull Reply bull
toddbook bull 3 months ago Adam
It is not mathematically impossible The probabilities are
extremely minute but not impossible It would not only take an
extreme amount of skill but much much luck
3
bull Reply bull
Mark Anderson bull 3 months ago Adam
Adam is right These bracket picking contests have been going
on for years and no one has ever picked a perfect bracket Only
15 million people are allowed to compete for the billion so the
chances of a perfect bracket are zero Warren would not be rich
if he did not evaluate the probabilities of every deal he gets
involved with
1
bull Reply bull
MALKIEL bull 3 months ago Adam
If we were talking about chance events like 32 consecutive coin
tosses then the math (the spelling by the way is
mathematically) would be tough but these are a series of
events governed by skill where simply choosing the team in each
pairing with the best record has an excellent chance of winning
all let alone most of the pairings As I said below there could be
DOZENS of winners especially among professional bookies and
sports bettors who have the best information on details
RamblingRunner bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
in case you are curious there are NO perfect brackets
left and we arent even out of the first round
So what was that about dozens of winners
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692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 79
bull Reply bull
So what was that about dozens of winners
bull Reply bull
RamblingRunner bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
Malkiel skill governs TOO SOME EXTENT Once you get
within a couple ranking point it is basically a coin flip (in
fact 9th ranked have beaten 8th ranked 52 of the time
instead of the predicted 50 or less) Yes picking the
team with the best record would yield the most probable
result but even that result has not yet shown up in the
data Another way to look at it how rare are perfect
games in baseball even for the best pitchers Lets stack
the deck and say a hall of famer vs a bad team so relative
on base percentage is around 025 That means the
pitcher has a chance of being right 3 out of every 4 times
clearly skill is involved But being right only 27 times in a
row is less than 1 in a 2 thousand Now you are taking
about not 27 but 63 times in a row That is in the billions
in fact no pitcher has EVER done 2 perfect games in a
row and that is only 54 batters
1
bull Reply bull
MALKIEL bull 3 months ago
Sounds like another example of somebody without the math background
guessing badly at the probabilities When a hundred million people (or
more) take often highly educated guesses on the results of a series of
events governed more by skill than chance there may be dozens of
winners For Warren to insure that is like the god-fearing man who
spends his whole life avoiding the sin of gambling and then loses his life
savings on his only Vegas vacation
1
bull Reply bull
RamblingRunner bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
Malkiel if you actually read the arcile you would see they are
limiting it to 15 million entries In addition the billion is shared
amongst all the winners (if there are any) so that is the maximum
payout no matter who wins In addition to that addition its 25
millionyear for 40 years or 500 million up front If you take the
billion payout it assumes an interest rate of around 39 percent
and Im sure Buffet can beat that investing (heck putting it into
the Vanguard SampP 500 fund can beat that ) so the MAXIMUM
present value amount on the line is 500 million In addition to the
previous addition that was in addition to the first addition -) if you
look at the history of ESPNs brackets NO ONE has gotten a
perfect bracket The closest anyone has ever come is only the
first 2 rounds where most of the easy picks are
bull Reply bull
Sapir-Whorf bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
Once all the brackets are submitted the known path of complete
failure will be easily calculated and easily influenced and
manipulated For a $1B risk this risk will be managed You better
believe it
2
MALKIEL bull 3 months ago Sapir-Whorf
With that many teams and that many players I dont
believe the insurers can reliably manage the risk if by
that you mean bribing players or coaches or officials but I
do believe theres an excellent chance that somebody (or
multiple somebodies) in the home audience will choose
the right permutation It all goes down to the fact that
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692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 89
Tesla going the way of 8-tracks amp
mood rings 3 comments
4 in 10 millennials overwhelmed by
debt Study 107 comments
Slot machine maker International
Game Technology hellip 3 comments
Negative interest rates Forget it
Try this 32 comments
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bull Reply bull
the right permutation It all goes down to the fact that
assessing skill levels correctly by even rudimental criteria
(best win record tallest players etc) allows a large
number of the pairings to be called correctly outside the
range of chance
bull Reply bull
Mark Anderson bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
You have never bet on sports Even the bookies
are wrong a large percentage of the time even
with their superior information
1
bull Reply bull
Sapir-Whorf bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
All you need is one game thrown
1
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692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 29
If four No 1 teams make it to Final Four Im going into the witness protection
program Buffett joked
Adam Jeffery | CNBC
Dan Gilbert and Warren Buffett
Quicken Loansmdashwhose founder owns the NBAs Cleveland Cavaliersmdashsaid
the billion-dollar prize would be shared by any qualified contest participant
who predicts the winners of every game
Gilbert said Buffett pitched him the idea for the contest after they toured
Detroitmdashlooking at the progress being made in the bankrupt city where
Quicken is based
Asked if the cost of the insurance was $10 million Gilbert said that number
was in the ballparkmdashadding that working with Buffett was really easy No red-
tape no committees
People say how do you price this thing You price it for two things You price
it for one that everyone will get it right and secondly that someone will figure
out a way to beat the game Buffett saidmdashadding he believes hackers will
try
If we get past the first 32 games and there are say 200 people left he
continued Ill print out all their brackets and sleep on them
The billion dollars would be paid in 40 annual installments of $25 million
each The winner (or winners) may also choose to get a lump sum payment of
$500 million (or share in that amount)
Yahoo Sports designed the online bracket experience and its hosting the
destination for the challenge
The first 15 million qualified entrants to complete the registration process will
be eligible to win the billion dollars The window to enter closes at 1 am EDT
on Thursday March 20
In addition to the potential grand prize Quicken said it will award $100000
for each of the 20 most accurate imperfect brackets in the contest to use
toward buying refinancing or remodeling a home
Quicken will also be directly donating $1 million to nonprofit education
organizations in Detroit and Cleveland
FEATURED
Singapore man pays $22M for Buffett
mealA lunch with Warren Buffett has been bought by
Andy Chua from Singapore for 2166766 in an
annual charity auction
Buffetts charity lunch bid tops $1MWarren Buffetts annual auction to benefit a San
Francisco charity has drawn a bid of more than
$1 million surpassing last years top offering
Why Buffett and Google love theMojaveThe US is the third-largest solar market and
its growing rapidly because of private
investment and federal support
Two stocks costing Buffett $500M thisyearWarren Buffett may have a magic touch with
stocks but two stocks have tarnished that touch
for the year USA Today reports
MORE FROM BUFFETT WATCH
Lunch with Warren Buffett up for grabs in auction
Can Buffetts Dairy Queen make it in Manhattan
Warren Buffett raises his bet on Wal-Mart
Secret to Berkshires success might surprise you
CNBC Transcript Buffett Munger and Gates
Buffett Congress likely to tackle tax-dodgingmergers
Gates Munger amp Buffett slam high-speed trading
Buffett Munger call themselves a couple of
Gates New CEO pushes Microsoft to move faster
Buffett postgame Its human for CEOs to overreach
Alex CrippenSenior coordinating producer at CNBC
Stunning Pictures ofGrease Star OliviaNewton Johnhellip(Lonny Magazine)
Lt Col Ralph PetersPresident Obama Is lsquoAFool Andhellip(Downtrend)
Three Reasons to Investin Robotics(ThinkAdvisor)
7 Things To Always BuyWith Your Credit Card(Connected Rogers)
692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 39
Email Please Select Job Industry SIGN UP
Warren Buffett Watch Warren Buffett Berkshire Hathaway Inc
College Basketball Sports College Sports Matthew J Belvedere
Yahoo Inc Squawk Box US
mdashBy CNBCs Matthew J Belvedere Follow him on Twitter
Matt_SquawkCNBC
Introducing Morning Squawk CNBCs before the bell news roundup
Sign up to receive Morning Squawk in your inbox each weekday rsaquo Sample
Matthew J BelvedereProducer CNBCs Squaw k Box
RELATED TOPICS
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BRKA 19191700
-97800 -051
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Whatrsquos the real unemployment rate
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INVESTING rsaquo
Cramer Does this pet stock have legs
Growing market bullishness not a concern yet
Is Tesla becoming yesterdays fashion
After-hours buzz Caseys General Stores eBay ampmore
Why the next market milestone could come thisweek
TOP NEWS amp ANALYSIS rsaquo
Donald Sterling LA Clippers are not for sale
Stocks versus bonds - one market could get pounded
4 in 10 millennials overwhelmed by debt Study
Conn GOP was first tipped to Obamacare breach
Before deadly crash senators suggested rest rollback
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See short-term correction Pro
Closing Bell Exchange Global growth picture
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692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 49
Highest Dividend Stocks
Long-Term Investments
Warren Buffett Stock Picks
Top Stock Picks
10 Best ETFs
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5 Stocks to Buy
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Profitable Penny Stocks
Stocks Under $10
Sponsored
28 Comments CNBC Login
Sort by Newest Share
Join the discussionhellip
bull Reply bull
kd katz bull 3 months ago
Why give your private information in the forlorn hope of winning a billion
The odds arent quite as bad as 2 to the 32nd power-to-1 (some games
are easy to pick the winner) but still impossible odds
bull Reply bull
Min Min Oo bull 3 months ago
1 in 9223372036854775808 might be incorrect I think the odd is 1 in
2 32 + 2 16 + 2 8 +2 4+2 2+2 or 4295033110
2
bull Reply bull
Andy Domonkos bull 3 months ago
Lottery culture smoke and mirrors
bull Reply bull
Tao4mind bull 3 months ago
My little sister needs new shoes
1
bull Reply bull
ANTISOCIAL bull 3 months ago
dont waist your time this is simply an advertisement for Quicken
Loans
bull Reply bull
DAVID LEBLANC bull 3 months ago ANTISOCIAL
warren buffet validates it
2
bull Reply bull
JGRUMBY bull 3 months ago
I just did some fast math I assumed that a smart person could pick a 1-
16 game 99 of the time a 2-15 game 97 of the time a 3-14 game
95 of the time a 4-13 game 90 of the time a 5-12 game 80 of the
time etc down to 8-9 games being 55 For the second round I have
1-8 games at 80 down to 55 for 4-5 games Etc
With that the probability of getting all 63 games correct (I dont think the
4 play-in games are included in the contest) is about 1 in 5 billion
Tweak the s however you would like but if Quicken payed Buffett $10
million to guarantee $1 billion they were ripped off big-time
4
Favorite
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1 Highest Dividend Stocks
2 Long-Term Investments
3 Warren Buffett Stock Picks
4 Top Stock Picks
5 10 Best ETFs
Sponsored
692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 59
bull Reply bull
idster bull 3 months ago JGRUMBY
Youre not considering that the events are not independent If a
person makes an accurate prediction on one game its more
likely that his or her prediction on another game is correct
bull Reply bull
JGRUMBY bull 3 months ago idster
Each game IS an independent event One miss and you
are out so only those who get every game right are even
in contention By assigned significant weights to the
likelihood of outcomes Ive already assumed an intelligent
person making picks Someone making random picks
would have odds of 5050 on each game and thus have a
probability of success of 2 63 which is a number in the
trillions
1 in 5 billion is about as good as it gets even if Dick Vitale
were picking the games
bull Reply bull
idster bull 3 months ago JGRUMBY
Each game is an independent event but the
successful prediction of each game is not an
independent event You may be skeptical of this
but there have been NFL playoff seasons in which
Ive been able to ascertain a story line that allows
me to predict the outcome of multiple games--
even when those games finished close those
close finishes were in the cards The year the
Colts beat the Bears in the Super Bowl I predicted
the outcome of all 11 playoff games and many of
those were close finishes andor upsets I dont
have as keen an insight on college basketball but I
would bet the best performers out there do better
than how that model predicts they would do Re
Dick Vitale Ive picked better than Terry
Bradshaw And Ive certainly done better than
David Tuley who handicaps football games on
ESPN
bull Reply bull
JGRUMBY bull 3 months ago idster
There are statistics are there is luck Unless you
are implying that the games are fixed (either by
gamblers aliens or some other higher power)
and that you can tap into that and predict
outcomes with certainty then it is unrealistic to
expect someone to predict with significantly
greater certainty than historical realities
As to your NFL predicting prowess move to
Vegas and cash in dude
bull Reply bull
Amanda bull 3 months ago
This evil guy should go to hell
2
fightingpillow bull 3 months ago
Probably easier to hack a users account than to try beating the system
So make sure your passwords and security questions are pretty good
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 69
bull Reply bull
So make sure your passwords and security questions are pretty good
3
bull Reply bull
Sapir-Whorf bull 3 months ago
For $1B a college basketball game would never ever I repeat never
ever be thrown Mom needs a new house
1
bull Reply bull
Trueth bull 3 months ago
Sounds like Quicken is making a lot of money They must offer high
rates to yield so much cash
1
bull Reply bull
JGRUMBY bull 3 months ago
Jeepers people relax BRK is worth over $150 bil in market cap and
usually has at least $20 bil in cash If Quicken paid $10 million for a
policy to ensure $1 bil they were robbed The odds of someone winning
this even accounting for 16s v 1s etc is still hundreds of millions or
billions to one Quicken should have paid about $500 for their insurance
policy and only that because about $450 would have covered the
overhead
3
bull Reply bull
Adam bull 3 months ago
Ok you morons its an impossible task Warren is wiling to do this
because its mathmatically impossible for anyone to win it can not be
done and so its just a gimmick to get Quicken loans to add 15 Million
people to their marketing database Do you know how Buffet made
majority of his money Insurance businesses Its all mathmatics
3
bull Reply bull
toddbook bull 3 months ago Adam
It is not mathematically impossible The probabilities are
extremely minute but not impossible It would not only take an
extreme amount of skill but much much luck
3
bull Reply bull
Mark Anderson bull 3 months ago Adam
Adam is right These bracket picking contests have been going
on for years and no one has ever picked a perfect bracket Only
15 million people are allowed to compete for the billion so the
chances of a perfect bracket are zero Warren would not be rich
if he did not evaluate the probabilities of every deal he gets
involved with
1
bull Reply bull
MALKIEL bull 3 months ago Adam
If we were talking about chance events like 32 consecutive coin
tosses then the math (the spelling by the way is
mathematically) would be tough but these are a series of
events governed by skill where simply choosing the team in each
pairing with the best record has an excellent chance of winning
all let alone most of the pairings As I said below there could be
DOZENS of winners especially among professional bookies and
sports bettors who have the best information on details
RamblingRunner bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
in case you are curious there are NO perfect brackets
left and we arent even out of the first round
So what was that about dozens of winners
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 79
bull Reply bull
So what was that about dozens of winners
bull Reply bull
RamblingRunner bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
Malkiel skill governs TOO SOME EXTENT Once you get
within a couple ranking point it is basically a coin flip (in
fact 9th ranked have beaten 8th ranked 52 of the time
instead of the predicted 50 or less) Yes picking the
team with the best record would yield the most probable
result but even that result has not yet shown up in the
data Another way to look at it how rare are perfect
games in baseball even for the best pitchers Lets stack
the deck and say a hall of famer vs a bad team so relative
on base percentage is around 025 That means the
pitcher has a chance of being right 3 out of every 4 times
clearly skill is involved But being right only 27 times in a
row is less than 1 in a 2 thousand Now you are taking
about not 27 but 63 times in a row That is in the billions
in fact no pitcher has EVER done 2 perfect games in a
row and that is only 54 batters
1
bull Reply bull
MALKIEL bull 3 months ago
Sounds like another example of somebody without the math background
guessing badly at the probabilities When a hundred million people (or
more) take often highly educated guesses on the results of a series of
events governed more by skill than chance there may be dozens of
winners For Warren to insure that is like the god-fearing man who
spends his whole life avoiding the sin of gambling and then loses his life
savings on his only Vegas vacation
1
bull Reply bull
RamblingRunner bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
Malkiel if you actually read the arcile you would see they are
limiting it to 15 million entries In addition the billion is shared
amongst all the winners (if there are any) so that is the maximum
payout no matter who wins In addition to that addition its 25
millionyear for 40 years or 500 million up front If you take the
billion payout it assumes an interest rate of around 39 percent
and Im sure Buffet can beat that investing (heck putting it into
the Vanguard SampP 500 fund can beat that ) so the MAXIMUM
present value amount on the line is 500 million In addition to the
previous addition that was in addition to the first addition -) if you
look at the history of ESPNs brackets NO ONE has gotten a
perfect bracket The closest anyone has ever come is only the
first 2 rounds where most of the easy picks are
bull Reply bull
Sapir-Whorf bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
Once all the brackets are submitted the known path of complete
failure will be easily calculated and easily influenced and
manipulated For a $1B risk this risk will be managed You better
believe it
2
MALKIEL bull 3 months ago Sapir-Whorf
With that many teams and that many players I dont
believe the insurers can reliably manage the risk if by
that you mean bribing players or coaches or officials but I
do believe theres an excellent chance that somebody (or
multiple somebodies) in the home audience will choose
the right permutation It all goes down to the fact that
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 89
Tesla going the way of 8-tracks amp
mood rings 3 comments
4 in 10 millennials overwhelmed by
debt Study 107 comments
Slot machine maker International
Game Technology hellip 3 comments
Negative interest rates Forget it
Try this 32 comments
AROUND THE WEB
ALSO ON CNBC
bull Reply bull
the right permutation It all goes down to the fact that
assessing skill levels correctly by even rudimental criteria
(best win record tallest players etc) allows a large
number of the pairings to be called correctly outside the
range of chance
bull Reply bull
Mark Anderson bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
You have never bet on sports Even the bookies
are wrong a large percentage of the time even
with their superior information
1
bull Reply bull
Sapir-Whorf bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
All you need is one game thrown
1
WHATS THIS
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Slowing Say
Realtors
World News
Who Do You
Think
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Advertising in
2013 Check
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Used to Work as
a Bar Bouncer
World News
Subscribe Add Disqus to your site
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692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 99
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Special Reports
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Europe
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copy 2014 CNBC LLC All Rights Reserved
692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 39
Email Please Select Job Industry SIGN UP
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mdashBy CNBCs Matthew J Belvedere Follow him on Twitter
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692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
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28 Comments CNBC Login
Sort by Newest Share
Join the discussionhellip
bull Reply bull
kd katz bull 3 months ago
Why give your private information in the forlorn hope of winning a billion
The odds arent quite as bad as 2 to the 32nd power-to-1 (some games
are easy to pick the winner) but still impossible odds
bull Reply bull
Min Min Oo bull 3 months ago
1 in 9223372036854775808 might be incorrect I think the odd is 1 in
2 32 + 2 16 + 2 8 +2 4+2 2+2 or 4295033110
2
bull Reply bull
Andy Domonkos bull 3 months ago
Lottery culture smoke and mirrors
bull Reply bull
Tao4mind bull 3 months ago
My little sister needs new shoes
1
bull Reply bull
ANTISOCIAL bull 3 months ago
dont waist your time this is simply an advertisement for Quicken
Loans
bull Reply bull
DAVID LEBLANC bull 3 months ago ANTISOCIAL
warren buffet validates it
2
bull Reply bull
JGRUMBY bull 3 months ago
I just did some fast math I assumed that a smart person could pick a 1-
16 game 99 of the time a 2-15 game 97 of the time a 3-14 game
95 of the time a 4-13 game 90 of the time a 5-12 game 80 of the
time etc down to 8-9 games being 55 For the second round I have
1-8 games at 80 down to 55 for 4-5 games Etc
With that the probability of getting all 63 games correct (I dont think the
4 play-in games are included in the contest) is about 1 in 5 billion
Tweak the s however you would like but if Quicken payed Buffett $10
million to guarantee $1 billion they were ripped off big-time
4
Favorite
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
1 Highest Dividend Stocks
2 Long-Term Investments
3 Warren Buffett Stock Picks
4 Top Stock Picks
5 10 Best ETFs
Sponsored
692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 59
bull Reply bull
idster bull 3 months ago JGRUMBY
Youre not considering that the events are not independent If a
person makes an accurate prediction on one game its more
likely that his or her prediction on another game is correct
bull Reply bull
JGRUMBY bull 3 months ago idster
Each game IS an independent event One miss and you
are out so only those who get every game right are even
in contention By assigned significant weights to the
likelihood of outcomes Ive already assumed an intelligent
person making picks Someone making random picks
would have odds of 5050 on each game and thus have a
probability of success of 2 63 which is a number in the
trillions
1 in 5 billion is about as good as it gets even if Dick Vitale
were picking the games
bull Reply bull
idster bull 3 months ago JGRUMBY
Each game is an independent event but the
successful prediction of each game is not an
independent event You may be skeptical of this
but there have been NFL playoff seasons in which
Ive been able to ascertain a story line that allows
me to predict the outcome of multiple games--
even when those games finished close those
close finishes were in the cards The year the
Colts beat the Bears in the Super Bowl I predicted
the outcome of all 11 playoff games and many of
those were close finishes andor upsets I dont
have as keen an insight on college basketball but I
would bet the best performers out there do better
than how that model predicts they would do Re
Dick Vitale Ive picked better than Terry
Bradshaw And Ive certainly done better than
David Tuley who handicaps football games on
ESPN
bull Reply bull
JGRUMBY bull 3 months ago idster
There are statistics are there is luck Unless you
are implying that the games are fixed (either by
gamblers aliens or some other higher power)
and that you can tap into that and predict
outcomes with certainty then it is unrealistic to
expect someone to predict with significantly
greater certainty than historical realities
As to your NFL predicting prowess move to
Vegas and cash in dude
bull Reply bull
Amanda bull 3 months ago
This evil guy should go to hell
2
fightingpillow bull 3 months ago
Probably easier to hack a users account than to try beating the system
So make sure your passwords and security questions are pretty good
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 69
bull Reply bull
So make sure your passwords and security questions are pretty good
3
bull Reply bull
Sapir-Whorf bull 3 months ago
For $1B a college basketball game would never ever I repeat never
ever be thrown Mom needs a new house
1
bull Reply bull
Trueth bull 3 months ago
Sounds like Quicken is making a lot of money They must offer high
rates to yield so much cash
1
bull Reply bull
JGRUMBY bull 3 months ago
Jeepers people relax BRK is worth over $150 bil in market cap and
usually has at least $20 bil in cash If Quicken paid $10 million for a
policy to ensure $1 bil they were robbed The odds of someone winning
this even accounting for 16s v 1s etc is still hundreds of millions or
billions to one Quicken should have paid about $500 for their insurance
policy and only that because about $450 would have covered the
overhead
3
bull Reply bull
Adam bull 3 months ago
Ok you morons its an impossible task Warren is wiling to do this
because its mathmatically impossible for anyone to win it can not be
done and so its just a gimmick to get Quicken loans to add 15 Million
people to their marketing database Do you know how Buffet made
majority of his money Insurance businesses Its all mathmatics
3
bull Reply bull
toddbook bull 3 months ago Adam
It is not mathematically impossible The probabilities are
extremely minute but not impossible It would not only take an
extreme amount of skill but much much luck
3
bull Reply bull
Mark Anderson bull 3 months ago Adam
Adam is right These bracket picking contests have been going
on for years and no one has ever picked a perfect bracket Only
15 million people are allowed to compete for the billion so the
chances of a perfect bracket are zero Warren would not be rich
if he did not evaluate the probabilities of every deal he gets
involved with
1
bull Reply bull
MALKIEL bull 3 months ago Adam
If we were talking about chance events like 32 consecutive coin
tosses then the math (the spelling by the way is
mathematically) would be tough but these are a series of
events governed by skill where simply choosing the team in each
pairing with the best record has an excellent chance of winning
all let alone most of the pairings As I said below there could be
DOZENS of winners especially among professional bookies and
sports bettors who have the best information on details
RamblingRunner bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
in case you are curious there are NO perfect brackets
left and we arent even out of the first round
So what was that about dozens of winners
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 79
bull Reply bull
So what was that about dozens of winners
bull Reply bull
RamblingRunner bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
Malkiel skill governs TOO SOME EXTENT Once you get
within a couple ranking point it is basically a coin flip (in
fact 9th ranked have beaten 8th ranked 52 of the time
instead of the predicted 50 or less) Yes picking the
team with the best record would yield the most probable
result but even that result has not yet shown up in the
data Another way to look at it how rare are perfect
games in baseball even for the best pitchers Lets stack
the deck and say a hall of famer vs a bad team so relative
on base percentage is around 025 That means the
pitcher has a chance of being right 3 out of every 4 times
clearly skill is involved But being right only 27 times in a
row is less than 1 in a 2 thousand Now you are taking
about not 27 but 63 times in a row That is in the billions
in fact no pitcher has EVER done 2 perfect games in a
row and that is only 54 batters
1
bull Reply bull
MALKIEL bull 3 months ago
Sounds like another example of somebody without the math background
guessing badly at the probabilities When a hundred million people (or
more) take often highly educated guesses on the results of a series of
events governed more by skill than chance there may be dozens of
winners For Warren to insure that is like the god-fearing man who
spends his whole life avoiding the sin of gambling and then loses his life
savings on his only Vegas vacation
1
bull Reply bull
RamblingRunner bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
Malkiel if you actually read the arcile you would see they are
limiting it to 15 million entries In addition the billion is shared
amongst all the winners (if there are any) so that is the maximum
payout no matter who wins In addition to that addition its 25
millionyear for 40 years or 500 million up front If you take the
billion payout it assumes an interest rate of around 39 percent
and Im sure Buffet can beat that investing (heck putting it into
the Vanguard SampP 500 fund can beat that ) so the MAXIMUM
present value amount on the line is 500 million In addition to the
previous addition that was in addition to the first addition -) if you
look at the history of ESPNs brackets NO ONE has gotten a
perfect bracket The closest anyone has ever come is only the
first 2 rounds where most of the easy picks are
bull Reply bull
Sapir-Whorf bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
Once all the brackets are submitted the known path of complete
failure will be easily calculated and easily influenced and
manipulated For a $1B risk this risk will be managed You better
believe it
2
MALKIEL bull 3 months ago Sapir-Whorf
With that many teams and that many players I dont
believe the insurers can reliably manage the risk if by
that you mean bribing players or coaches or officials but I
do believe theres an excellent chance that somebody (or
multiple somebodies) in the home audience will choose
the right permutation It all goes down to the fact that
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 89
Tesla going the way of 8-tracks amp
mood rings 3 comments
4 in 10 millennials overwhelmed by
debt Study 107 comments
Slot machine maker International
Game Technology hellip 3 comments
Negative interest rates Forget it
Try this 32 comments
AROUND THE WEB
ALSO ON CNBC
bull Reply bull
the right permutation It all goes down to the fact that
assessing skill levels correctly by even rudimental criteria
(best win record tallest players etc) allows a large
number of the pairings to be called correctly outside the
range of chance
bull Reply bull
Mark Anderson bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
You have never bet on sports Even the bookies
are wrong a large percentage of the time even
with their superior information
1
bull Reply bull
Sapir-Whorf bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
All you need is one game thrown
1
WHATS THIS
Home Sales
Slowing Say
Realtors
World News
Who Do You
Think
Transformed
Advertising in
2013 Check
Out These 5
Companies
Disqus
Pope Francis
Reveals He
Used to Work as
a Bar Bouncer
World News
Subscribe Add Disqus to your site
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
NEW S
Economy
Finance
Health Care
Real Estate
Retail
Wealth
Autos
Earnings
Energy
MARKETS
Pre-Markets
US
Asia
Europe
Stocks
Commodities
Currencies
Bonds
Funds
INVESTING
Financial Advisors
Personal Finance
CNBC Explains
Portfolio
Watchlist
Stock Screener
Fund Screener
TECH
Recode
Mobile
Social Media
Enterprise
Gaming
Cybersecurity
SMALL BUSINESS
Franchising
Financing
Management
VIDEO
Latest Video
Digital Workshop
US Video
Asia Video
Europe Video
CEO Interviews
Analyst Interviews
Full Episodes
Closed Captioning
SHOW S
Watch Live
CNBC US
CNBC Asia-Pacific
CNBC Europe
CNBC World
Full Episodes
692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 99
Data also provided by
Media
Politics
Commentary
Special Reports
Asia
Europe
ETFs
About CNBC Site Map Video Reprints Advertise Careers Help Contact Corrections Newsletters
Privacy Policy - UPDATED AdChoices Terms of Service (New) Independent Programming Report Latest News Releases RSS
Data is a real-time snapshot Data is delayed at least 15 minutesGlobal Business and Financial News Stock Quotes and Market Data and Analysis
copy 2014 CNBC LLC All Rights Reserved
692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 49
Highest Dividend Stocks
Long-Term Investments
Warren Buffett Stock Picks
Top Stock Picks
10 Best ETFs
10 Best Mutual Funds
5 Stocks to Buy
Top Mutual Funds
Profitable Penny Stocks
Stocks Under $10
Sponsored
28 Comments CNBC Login
Sort by Newest Share
Join the discussionhellip
bull Reply bull
kd katz bull 3 months ago
Why give your private information in the forlorn hope of winning a billion
The odds arent quite as bad as 2 to the 32nd power-to-1 (some games
are easy to pick the winner) but still impossible odds
bull Reply bull
Min Min Oo bull 3 months ago
1 in 9223372036854775808 might be incorrect I think the odd is 1 in
2 32 + 2 16 + 2 8 +2 4+2 2+2 or 4295033110
2
bull Reply bull
Andy Domonkos bull 3 months ago
Lottery culture smoke and mirrors
bull Reply bull
Tao4mind bull 3 months ago
My little sister needs new shoes
1
bull Reply bull
ANTISOCIAL bull 3 months ago
dont waist your time this is simply an advertisement for Quicken
Loans
bull Reply bull
DAVID LEBLANC bull 3 months ago ANTISOCIAL
warren buffet validates it
2
bull Reply bull
JGRUMBY bull 3 months ago
I just did some fast math I assumed that a smart person could pick a 1-
16 game 99 of the time a 2-15 game 97 of the time a 3-14 game
95 of the time a 4-13 game 90 of the time a 5-12 game 80 of the
time etc down to 8-9 games being 55 For the second round I have
1-8 games at 80 down to 55 for 4-5 games Etc
With that the probability of getting all 63 games correct (I dont think the
4 play-in games are included in the contest) is about 1 in 5 billion
Tweak the s however you would like but if Quicken payed Buffett $10
million to guarantee $1 billion they were ripped off big-time
4
Favorite
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
1 Highest Dividend Stocks
2 Long-Term Investments
3 Warren Buffett Stock Picks
4 Top Stock Picks
5 10 Best ETFs
Sponsored
692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 59
bull Reply bull
idster bull 3 months ago JGRUMBY
Youre not considering that the events are not independent If a
person makes an accurate prediction on one game its more
likely that his or her prediction on another game is correct
bull Reply bull
JGRUMBY bull 3 months ago idster
Each game IS an independent event One miss and you
are out so only those who get every game right are even
in contention By assigned significant weights to the
likelihood of outcomes Ive already assumed an intelligent
person making picks Someone making random picks
would have odds of 5050 on each game and thus have a
probability of success of 2 63 which is a number in the
trillions
1 in 5 billion is about as good as it gets even if Dick Vitale
were picking the games
bull Reply bull
idster bull 3 months ago JGRUMBY
Each game is an independent event but the
successful prediction of each game is not an
independent event You may be skeptical of this
but there have been NFL playoff seasons in which
Ive been able to ascertain a story line that allows
me to predict the outcome of multiple games--
even when those games finished close those
close finishes were in the cards The year the
Colts beat the Bears in the Super Bowl I predicted
the outcome of all 11 playoff games and many of
those were close finishes andor upsets I dont
have as keen an insight on college basketball but I
would bet the best performers out there do better
than how that model predicts they would do Re
Dick Vitale Ive picked better than Terry
Bradshaw And Ive certainly done better than
David Tuley who handicaps football games on
ESPN
bull Reply bull
JGRUMBY bull 3 months ago idster
There are statistics are there is luck Unless you
are implying that the games are fixed (either by
gamblers aliens or some other higher power)
and that you can tap into that and predict
outcomes with certainty then it is unrealistic to
expect someone to predict with significantly
greater certainty than historical realities
As to your NFL predicting prowess move to
Vegas and cash in dude
bull Reply bull
Amanda bull 3 months ago
This evil guy should go to hell
2
fightingpillow bull 3 months ago
Probably easier to hack a users account than to try beating the system
So make sure your passwords and security questions are pretty good
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
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692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 69
bull Reply bull
So make sure your passwords and security questions are pretty good
3
bull Reply bull
Sapir-Whorf bull 3 months ago
For $1B a college basketball game would never ever I repeat never
ever be thrown Mom needs a new house
1
bull Reply bull
Trueth bull 3 months ago
Sounds like Quicken is making a lot of money They must offer high
rates to yield so much cash
1
bull Reply bull
JGRUMBY bull 3 months ago
Jeepers people relax BRK is worth over $150 bil in market cap and
usually has at least $20 bil in cash If Quicken paid $10 million for a
policy to ensure $1 bil they were robbed The odds of someone winning
this even accounting for 16s v 1s etc is still hundreds of millions or
billions to one Quicken should have paid about $500 for their insurance
policy and only that because about $450 would have covered the
overhead
3
bull Reply bull
Adam bull 3 months ago
Ok you morons its an impossible task Warren is wiling to do this
because its mathmatically impossible for anyone to win it can not be
done and so its just a gimmick to get Quicken loans to add 15 Million
people to their marketing database Do you know how Buffet made
majority of his money Insurance businesses Its all mathmatics
3
bull Reply bull
toddbook bull 3 months ago Adam
It is not mathematically impossible The probabilities are
extremely minute but not impossible It would not only take an
extreme amount of skill but much much luck
3
bull Reply bull
Mark Anderson bull 3 months ago Adam
Adam is right These bracket picking contests have been going
on for years and no one has ever picked a perfect bracket Only
15 million people are allowed to compete for the billion so the
chances of a perfect bracket are zero Warren would not be rich
if he did not evaluate the probabilities of every deal he gets
involved with
1
bull Reply bull
MALKIEL bull 3 months ago Adam
If we were talking about chance events like 32 consecutive coin
tosses then the math (the spelling by the way is
mathematically) would be tough but these are a series of
events governed by skill where simply choosing the team in each
pairing with the best record has an excellent chance of winning
all let alone most of the pairings As I said below there could be
DOZENS of winners especially among professional bookies and
sports bettors who have the best information on details
RamblingRunner bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
in case you are curious there are NO perfect brackets
left and we arent even out of the first round
So what was that about dozens of winners
Share rsaquo
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692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 79
bull Reply bull
So what was that about dozens of winners
bull Reply bull
RamblingRunner bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
Malkiel skill governs TOO SOME EXTENT Once you get
within a couple ranking point it is basically a coin flip (in
fact 9th ranked have beaten 8th ranked 52 of the time
instead of the predicted 50 or less) Yes picking the
team with the best record would yield the most probable
result but even that result has not yet shown up in the
data Another way to look at it how rare are perfect
games in baseball even for the best pitchers Lets stack
the deck and say a hall of famer vs a bad team so relative
on base percentage is around 025 That means the
pitcher has a chance of being right 3 out of every 4 times
clearly skill is involved But being right only 27 times in a
row is less than 1 in a 2 thousand Now you are taking
about not 27 but 63 times in a row That is in the billions
in fact no pitcher has EVER done 2 perfect games in a
row and that is only 54 batters
1
bull Reply bull
MALKIEL bull 3 months ago
Sounds like another example of somebody without the math background
guessing badly at the probabilities When a hundred million people (or
more) take often highly educated guesses on the results of a series of
events governed more by skill than chance there may be dozens of
winners For Warren to insure that is like the god-fearing man who
spends his whole life avoiding the sin of gambling and then loses his life
savings on his only Vegas vacation
1
bull Reply bull
RamblingRunner bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
Malkiel if you actually read the arcile you would see they are
limiting it to 15 million entries In addition the billion is shared
amongst all the winners (if there are any) so that is the maximum
payout no matter who wins In addition to that addition its 25
millionyear for 40 years or 500 million up front If you take the
billion payout it assumes an interest rate of around 39 percent
and Im sure Buffet can beat that investing (heck putting it into
the Vanguard SampP 500 fund can beat that ) so the MAXIMUM
present value amount on the line is 500 million In addition to the
previous addition that was in addition to the first addition -) if you
look at the history of ESPNs brackets NO ONE has gotten a
perfect bracket The closest anyone has ever come is only the
first 2 rounds where most of the easy picks are
bull Reply bull
Sapir-Whorf bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
Once all the brackets are submitted the known path of complete
failure will be easily calculated and easily influenced and
manipulated For a $1B risk this risk will be managed You better
believe it
2
MALKIEL bull 3 months ago Sapir-Whorf
With that many teams and that many players I dont
believe the insurers can reliably manage the risk if by
that you mean bribing players or coaches or officials but I
do believe theres an excellent chance that somebody (or
multiple somebodies) in the home audience will choose
the right permutation It all goes down to the fact that
Share rsaquo
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Share rsaquo
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692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 89
Tesla going the way of 8-tracks amp
mood rings 3 comments
4 in 10 millennials overwhelmed by
debt Study 107 comments
Slot machine maker International
Game Technology hellip 3 comments
Negative interest rates Forget it
Try this 32 comments
AROUND THE WEB
ALSO ON CNBC
bull Reply bull
the right permutation It all goes down to the fact that
assessing skill levels correctly by even rudimental criteria
(best win record tallest players etc) allows a large
number of the pairings to be called correctly outside the
range of chance
bull Reply bull
Mark Anderson bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
You have never bet on sports Even the bookies
are wrong a large percentage of the time even
with their superior information
1
bull Reply bull
Sapir-Whorf bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
All you need is one game thrown
1
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692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 99
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692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 59
bull Reply bull
idster bull 3 months ago JGRUMBY
Youre not considering that the events are not independent If a
person makes an accurate prediction on one game its more
likely that his or her prediction on another game is correct
bull Reply bull
JGRUMBY bull 3 months ago idster
Each game IS an independent event One miss and you
are out so only those who get every game right are even
in contention By assigned significant weights to the
likelihood of outcomes Ive already assumed an intelligent
person making picks Someone making random picks
would have odds of 5050 on each game and thus have a
probability of success of 2 63 which is a number in the
trillions
1 in 5 billion is about as good as it gets even if Dick Vitale
were picking the games
bull Reply bull
idster bull 3 months ago JGRUMBY
Each game is an independent event but the
successful prediction of each game is not an
independent event You may be skeptical of this
but there have been NFL playoff seasons in which
Ive been able to ascertain a story line that allows
me to predict the outcome of multiple games--
even when those games finished close those
close finishes were in the cards The year the
Colts beat the Bears in the Super Bowl I predicted
the outcome of all 11 playoff games and many of
those were close finishes andor upsets I dont
have as keen an insight on college basketball but I
would bet the best performers out there do better
than how that model predicts they would do Re
Dick Vitale Ive picked better than Terry
Bradshaw And Ive certainly done better than
David Tuley who handicaps football games on
ESPN
bull Reply bull
JGRUMBY bull 3 months ago idster
There are statistics are there is luck Unless you
are implying that the games are fixed (either by
gamblers aliens or some other higher power)
and that you can tap into that and predict
outcomes with certainty then it is unrealistic to
expect someone to predict with significantly
greater certainty than historical realities
As to your NFL predicting prowess move to
Vegas and cash in dude
bull Reply bull
Amanda bull 3 months ago
This evil guy should go to hell
2
fightingpillow bull 3 months ago
Probably easier to hack a users account than to try beating the system
So make sure your passwords and security questions are pretty good
Share rsaquo
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692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 69
bull Reply bull
So make sure your passwords and security questions are pretty good
3
bull Reply bull
Sapir-Whorf bull 3 months ago
For $1B a college basketball game would never ever I repeat never
ever be thrown Mom needs a new house
1
bull Reply bull
Trueth bull 3 months ago
Sounds like Quicken is making a lot of money They must offer high
rates to yield so much cash
1
bull Reply bull
JGRUMBY bull 3 months ago
Jeepers people relax BRK is worth over $150 bil in market cap and
usually has at least $20 bil in cash If Quicken paid $10 million for a
policy to ensure $1 bil they were robbed The odds of someone winning
this even accounting for 16s v 1s etc is still hundreds of millions or
billions to one Quicken should have paid about $500 for their insurance
policy and only that because about $450 would have covered the
overhead
3
bull Reply bull
Adam bull 3 months ago
Ok you morons its an impossible task Warren is wiling to do this
because its mathmatically impossible for anyone to win it can not be
done and so its just a gimmick to get Quicken loans to add 15 Million
people to their marketing database Do you know how Buffet made
majority of his money Insurance businesses Its all mathmatics
3
bull Reply bull
toddbook bull 3 months ago Adam
It is not mathematically impossible The probabilities are
extremely minute but not impossible It would not only take an
extreme amount of skill but much much luck
3
bull Reply bull
Mark Anderson bull 3 months ago Adam
Adam is right These bracket picking contests have been going
on for years and no one has ever picked a perfect bracket Only
15 million people are allowed to compete for the billion so the
chances of a perfect bracket are zero Warren would not be rich
if he did not evaluate the probabilities of every deal he gets
involved with
1
bull Reply bull
MALKIEL bull 3 months ago Adam
If we were talking about chance events like 32 consecutive coin
tosses then the math (the spelling by the way is
mathematically) would be tough but these are a series of
events governed by skill where simply choosing the team in each
pairing with the best record has an excellent chance of winning
all let alone most of the pairings As I said below there could be
DOZENS of winners especially among professional bookies and
sports bettors who have the best information on details
RamblingRunner bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
in case you are curious there are NO perfect brackets
left and we arent even out of the first round
So what was that about dozens of winners
Share rsaquo
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692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 79
bull Reply bull
So what was that about dozens of winners
bull Reply bull
RamblingRunner bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
Malkiel skill governs TOO SOME EXTENT Once you get
within a couple ranking point it is basically a coin flip (in
fact 9th ranked have beaten 8th ranked 52 of the time
instead of the predicted 50 or less) Yes picking the
team with the best record would yield the most probable
result but even that result has not yet shown up in the
data Another way to look at it how rare are perfect
games in baseball even for the best pitchers Lets stack
the deck and say a hall of famer vs a bad team so relative
on base percentage is around 025 That means the
pitcher has a chance of being right 3 out of every 4 times
clearly skill is involved But being right only 27 times in a
row is less than 1 in a 2 thousand Now you are taking
about not 27 but 63 times in a row That is in the billions
in fact no pitcher has EVER done 2 perfect games in a
row and that is only 54 batters
1
bull Reply bull
MALKIEL bull 3 months ago
Sounds like another example of somebody without the math background
guessing badly at the probabilities When a hundred million people (or
more) take often highly educated guesses on the results of a series of
events governed more by skill than chance there may be dozens of
winners For Warren to insure that is like the god-fearing man who
spends his whole life avoiding the sin of gambling and then loses his life
savings on his only Vegas vacation
1
bull Reply bull
RamblingRunner bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
Malkiel if you actually read the arcile you would see they are
limiting it to 15 million entries In addition the billion is shared
amongst all the winners (if there are any) so that is the maximum
payout no matter who wins In addition to that addition its 25
millionyear for 40 years or 500 million up front If you take the
billion payout it assumes an interest rate of around 39 percent
and Im sure Buffet can beat that investing (heck putting it into
the Vanguard SampP 500 fund can beat that ) so the MAXIMUM
present value amount on the line is 500 million In addition to the
previous addition that was in addition to the first addition -) if you
look at the history of ESPNs brackets NO ONE has gotten a
perfect bracket The closest anyone has ever come is only the
first 2 rounds where most of the easy picks are
bull Reply bull
Sapir-Whorf bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
Once all the brackets are submitted the known path of complete
failure will be easily calculated and easily influenced and
manipulated For a $1B risk this risk will be managed You better
believe it
2
MALKIEL bull 3 months ago Sapir-Whorf
With that many teams and that many players I dont
believe the insurers can reliably manage the risk if by
that you mean bribing players or coaches or officials but I
do believe theres an excellent chance that somebody (or
multiple somebodies) in the home audience will choose
the right permutation It all goes down to the fact that
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 89
Tesla going the way of 8-tracks amp
mood rings 3 comments
4 in 10 millennials overwhelmed by
debt Study 107 comments
Slot machine maker International
Game Technology hellip 3 comments
Negative interest rates Forget it
Try this 32 comments
AROUND THE WEB
ALSO ON CNBC
bull Reply bull
the right permutation It all goes down to the fact that
assessing skill levels correctly by even rudimental criteria
(best win record tallest players etc) allows a large
number of the pairings to be called correctly outside the
range of chance
bull Reply bull
Mark Anderson bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
You have never bet on sports Even the bookies
are wrong a large percentage of the time even
with their superior information
1
bull Reply bull
Sapir-Whorf bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
All you need is one game thrown
1
WHATS THIS
Home Sales
Slowing Say
Realtors
World News
Who Do You
Think
Transformed
Advertising in
2013 Check
Out These 5
Companies
Disqus
Pope Francis
Reveals He
Used to Work as
a Bar Bouncer
World News
Subscribe Add Disqus to your site
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
NEW S
Economy
Finance
Health Care
Real Estate
Retail
Wealth
Autos
Earnings
Energy
MARKETS
Pre-Markets
US
Asia
Europe
Stocks
Commodities
Currencies
Bonds
Funds
INVESTING
Financial Advisors
Personal Finance
CNBC Explains
Portfolio
Watchlist
Stock Screener
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TECH
Recode
Mobile
Social Media
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Gaming
Cybersecurity
SMALL BUSINESS
Franchising
Financing
Management
VIDEO
Latest Video
Digital Workshop
US Video
Asia Video
Europe Video
CEO Interviews
Analyst Interviews
Full Episodes
Closed Captioning
SHOW S
Watch Live
CNBC US
CNBC Asia-Pacific
CNBC Europe
CNBC World
Full Episodes
692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 99
Data also provided by
Media
Politics
Commentary
Special Reports
Asia
Europe
ETFs
About CNBC Site Map Video Reprints Advertise Careers Help Contact Corrections Newsletters
Privacy Policy - UPDATED AdChoices Terms of Service (New) Independent Programming Report Latest News Releases RSS
Data is a real-time snapshot Data is delayed at least 15 minutesGlobal Business and Financial News Stock Quotes and Market Data and Analysis
copy 2014 CNBC LLC All Rights Reserved
692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 69
bull Reply bull
So make sure your passwords and security questions are pretty good
3
bull Reply bull
Sapir-Whorf bull 3 months ago
For $1B a college basketball game would never ever I repeat never
ever be thrown Mom needs a new house
1
bull Reply bull
Trueth bull 3 months ago
Sounds like Quicken is making a lot of money They must offer high
rates to yield so much cash
1
bull Reply bull
JGRUMBY bull 3 months ago
Jeepers people relax BRK is worth over $150 bil in market cap and
usually has at least $20 bil in cash If Quicken paid $10 million for a
policy to ensure $1 bil they were robbed The odds of someone winning
this even accounting for 16s v 1s etc is still hundreds of millions or
billions to one Quicken should have paid about $500 for their insurance
policy and only that because about $450 would have covered the
overhead
3
bull Reply bull
Adam bull 3 months ago
Ok you morons its an impossible task Warren is wiling to do this
because its mathmatically impossible for anyone to win it can not be
done and so its just a gimmick to get Quicken loans to add 15 Million
people to their marketing database Do you know how Buffet made
majority of his money Insurance businesses Its all mathmatics
3
bull Reply bull
toddbook bull 3 months ago Adam
It is not mathematically impossible The probabilities are
extremely minute but not impossible It would not only take an
extreme amount of skill but much much luck
3
bull Reply bull
Mark Anderson bull 3 months ago Adam
Adam is right These bracket picking contests have been going
on for years and no one has ever picked a perfect bracket Only
15 million people are allowed to compete for the billion so the
chances of a perfect bracket are zero Warren would not be rich
if he did not evaluate the probabilities of every deal he gets
involved with
1
bull Reply bull
MALKIEL bull 3 months ago Adam
If we were talking about chance events like 32 consecutive coin
tosses then the math (the spelling by the way is
mathematically) would be tough but these are a series of
events governed by skill where simply choosing the team in each
pairing with the best record has an excellent chance of winning
all let alone most of the pairings As I said below there could be
DOZENS of winners especially among professional bookies and
sports bettors who have the best information on details
RamblingRunner bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
in case you are curious there are NO perfect brackets
left and we arent even out of the first round
So what was that about dozens of winners
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 79
bull Reply bull
So what was that about dozens of winners
bull Reply bull
RamblingRunner bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
Malkiel skill governs TOO SOME EXTENT Once you get
within a couple ranking point it is basically a coin flip (in
fact 9th ranked have beaten 8th ranked 52 of the time
instead of the predicted 50 or less) Yes picking the
team with the best record would yield the most probable
result but even that result has not yet shown up in the
data Another way to look at it how rare are perfect
games in baseball even for the best pitchers Lets stack
the deck and say a hall of famer vs a bad team so relative
on base percentage is around 025 That means the
pitcher has a chance of being right 3 out of every 4 times
clearly skill is involved But being right only 27 times in a
row is less than 1 in a 2 thousand Now you are taking
about not 27 but 63 times in a row That is in the billions
in fact no pitcher has EVER done 2 perfect games in a
row and that is only 54 batters
1
bull Reply bull
MALKIEL bull 3 months ago
Sounds like another example of somebody without the math background
guessing badly at the probabilities When a hundred million people (or
more) take often highly educated guesses on the results of a series of
events governed more by skill than chance there may be dozens of
winners For Warren to insure that is like the god-fearing man who
spends his whole life avoiding the sin of gambling and then loses his life
savings on his only Vegas vacation
1
bull Reply bull
RamblingRunner bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
Malkiel if you actually read the arcile you would see they are
limiting it to 15 million entries In addition the billion is shared
amongst all the winners (if there are any) so that is the maximum
payout no matter who wins In addition to that addition its 25
millionyear for 40 years or 500 million up front If you take the
billion payout it assumes an interest rate of around 39 percent
and Im sure Buffet can beat that investing (heck putting it into
the Vanguard SampP 500 fund can beat that ) so the MAXIMUM
present value amount on the line is 500 million In addition to the
previous addition that was in addition to the first addition -) if you
look at the history of ESPNs brackets NO ONE has gotten a
perfect bracket The closest anyone has ever come is only the
first 2 rounds where most of the easy picks are
bull Reply bull
Sapir-Whorf bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
Once all the brackets are submitted the known path of complete
failure will be easily calculated and easily influenced and
manipulated For a $1B risk this risk will be managed You better
believe it
2
MALKIEL bull 3 months ago Sapir-Whorf
With that many teams and that many players I dont
believe the insurers can reliably manage the risk if by
that you mean bribing players or coaches or officials but I
do believe theres an excellent chance that somebody (or
multiple somebodies) in the home audience will choose
the right permutation It all goes down to the fact that
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 89
Tesla going the way of 8-tracks amp
mood rings 3 comments
4 in 10 millennials overwhelmed by
debt Study 107 comments
Slot machine maker International
Game Technology hellip 3 comments
Negative interest rates Forget it
Try this 32 comments
AROUND THE WEB
ALSO ON CNBC
bull Reply bull
the right permutation It all goes down to the fact that
assessing skill levels correctly by even rudimental criteria
(best win record tallest players etc) allows a large
number of the pairings to be called correctly outside the
range of chance
bull Reply bull
Mark Anderson bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
You have never bet on sports Even the bookies
are wrong a large percentage of the time even
with their superior information
1
bull Reply bull
Sapir-Whorf bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
All you need is one game thrown
1
WHATS THIS
Home Sales
Slowing Say
Realtors
World News
Who Do You
Think
Transformed
Advertising in
2013 Check
Out These 5
Companies
Disqus
Pope Francis
Reveals He
Used to Work as
a Bar Bouncer
World News
Subscribe Add Disqus to your site
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
NEW S
Economy
Finance
Health Care
Real Estate
Retail
Wealth
Autos
Earnings
Energy
MARKETS
Pre-Markets
US
Asia
Europe
Stocks
Commodities
Currencies
Bonds
Funds
INVESTING
Financial Advisors
Personal Finance
CNBC Explains
Portfolio
Watchlist
Stock Screener
Fund Screener
TECH
Recode
Mobile
Social Media
Enterprise
Gaming
Cybersecurity
SMALL BUSINESS
Franchising
Financing
Management
VIDEO
Latest Video
Digital Workshop
US Video
Asia Video
Europe Video
CEO Interviews
Analyst Interviews
Full Episodes
Closed Captioning
SHOW S
Watch Live
CNBC US
CNBC Asia-Pacific
CNBC Europe
CNBC World
Full Episodes
692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 99
Data also provided by
Media
Politics
Commentary
Special Reports
Asia
Europe
ETFs
About CNBC Site Map Video Reprints Advertise Careers Help Contact Corrections Newsletters
Privacy Policy - UPDATED AdChoices Terms of Service (New) Independent Programming Report Latest News Releases RSS
Data is a real-time snapshot Data is delayed at least 15 minutesGlobal Business and Financial News Stock Quotes and Market Data and Analysis
copy 2014 CNBC LLC All Rights Reserved
692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 79
bull Reply bull
So what was that about dozens of winners
bull Reply bull
RamblingRunner bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
Malkiel skill governs TOO SOME EXTENT Once you get
within a couple ranking point it is basically a coin flip (in
fact 9th ranked have beaten 8th ranked 52 of the time
instead of the predicted 50 or less) Yes picking the
team with the best record would yield the most probable
result but even that result has not yet shown up in the
data Another way to look at it how rare are perfect
games in baseball even for the best pitchers Lets stack
the deck and say a hall of famer vs a bad team so relative
on base percentage is around 025 That means the
pitcher has a chance of being right 3 out of every 4 times
clearly skill is involved But being right only 27 times in a
row is less than 1 in a 2 thousand Now you are taking
about not 27 but 63 times in a row That is in the billions
in fact no pitcher has EVER done 2 perfect games in a
row and that is only 54 batters
1
bull Reply bull
MALKIEL bull 3 months ago
Sounds like another example of somebody without the math background
guessing badly at the probabilities When a hundred million people (or
more) take often highly educated guesses on the results of a series of
events governed more by skill than chance there may be dozens of
winners For Warren to insure that is like the god-fearing man who
spends his whole life avoiding the sin of gambling and then loses his life
savings on his only Vegas vacation
1
bull Reply bull
RamblingRunner bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
Malkiel if you actually read the arcile you would see they are
limiting it to 15 million entries In addition the billion is shared
amongst all the winners (if there are any) so that is the maximum
payout no matter who wins In addition to that addition its 25
millionyear for 40 years or 500 million up front If you take the
billion payout it assumes an interest rate of around 39 percent
and Im sure Buffet can beat that investing (heck putting it into
the Vanguard SampP 500 fund can beat that ) so the MAXIMUM
present value amount on the line is 500 million In addition to the
previous addition that was in addition to the first addition -) if you
look at the history of ESPNs brackets NO ONE has gotten a
perfect bracket The closest anyone has ever come is only the
first 2 rounds where most of the easy picks are
bull Reply bull
Sapir-Whorf bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
Once all the brackets are submitted the known path of complete
failure will be easily calculated and easily influenced and
manipulated For a $1B risk this risk will be managed You better
believe it
2
MALKIEL bull 3 months ago Sapir-Whorf
With that many teams and that many players I dont
believe the insurers can reliably manage the risk if by
that you mean bribing players or coaches or officials but I
do believe theres an excellent chance that somebody (or
multiple somebodies) in the home audience will choose
the right permutation It all goes down to the fact that
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692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 89
Tesla going the way of 8-tracks amp
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debt Study 107 comments
Slot machine maker International
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bull Reply bull
the right permutation It all goes down to the fact that
assessing skill levels correctly by even rudimental criteria
(best win record tallest players etc) allows a large
number of the pairings to be called correctly outside the
range of chance
bull Reply bull
Mark Anderson bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
You have never bet on sports Even the bookies
are wrong a large percentage of the time even
with their superior information
1
bull Reply bull
Sapir-Whorf bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
All you need is one game thrown
1
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692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 89
Tesla going the way of 8-tracks amp
mood rings 3 comments
4 in 10 millennials overwhelmed by
debt Study 107 comments
Slot machine maker International
Game Technology hellip 3 comments
Negative interest rates Forget it
Try this 32 comments
AROUND THE WEB
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bull Reply bull
the right permutation It all goes down to the fact that
assessing skill levels correctly by even rudimental criteria
(best win record tallest players etc) allows a large
number of the pairings to be called correctly outside the
range of chance
bull Reply bull
Mark Anderson bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
You have never bet on sports Even the bookies
are wrong a large percentage of the time even
with their superior information
1
bull Reply bull
Sapir-Whorf bull 3 months ago MALKIEL
All you need is one game thrown
1
WHATS THIS
Home Sales
Slowing Say
Realtors
World News
Who Do You
Think
Transformed
Advertising in
2013 Check
Out These 5
Companies
Disqus
Pope Francis
Reveals He
Used to Work as
a Bar Bouncer
World News
Subscribe Add Disqus to your site
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
Share rsaquo
NEW S
Economy
Finance
Health Care
Real Estate
Retail
Wealth
Autos
Earnings
Energy
MARKETS
Pre-Markets
US
Asia
Europe
Stocks
Commodities
Currencies
Bonds
Funds
INVESTING
Financial Advisors
Personal Finance
CNBC Explains
Portfolio
Watchlist
Stock Screener
Fund Screener
TECH
Recode
Mobile
Social Media
Enterprise
Gaming
Cybersecurity
SMALL BUSINESS
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Latest Video
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692014 $1 billion Madness contest not just chance Buffett
httpwwwcnbccomid101494540 99
Data also provided by
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Politics
Commentary
Special Reports
Asia
Europe
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About CNBC Site Map Video Reprints Advertise Careers Help Contact Corrections Newsletters
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Data is a real-time snapshot Data is delayed at least 15 minutesGlobal Business and Financial News Stock Quotes and Market Data and Analysis
copy 2014 CNBC LLC All Rights Reserved