WWF . :
WWF , : , , 2009.
06
09
11
21
33
43
51
55
European Climate Foundation.
, WWF .. , .. ,
WWF , , , , , , , . .
4
1: . 12
1: . 12
1: 35C
1961-1990 2021-2050, . 13
2: (Tmin> 20C)
2021-2050 1961-1990 . 14
3:
, 2021-2050 1961-1990
. 15
4:
2021-2050 1961-1990 . 16
5: ,
2021-2050 1961-1990, . 18
2: 19
3: 21
6: (Tmax>35C)
2021-2050 1961-1990 . 22-23
7: (Tmin>20C)
2021-2050 1961-1990 . 24-25
8: (Tmax>25C)
2021-2050 1961-1990 . 26-27
9:
2021-2050 1961-1990 . 27-28
10:
2021-2050 1961-1990 . 29-30
4: 31
5.
. 33
5 11: ( )
2021-2050 1961-1990,
. 34
12:
2021-2050 1961-1990
. 35
13:
35oC 2021-2050 1961-1990
. 36
14:
(Tmn
6
WWF (.. , , ), , , , 1 . , . : , , , , , . ,
. WWF 33% , . 2007 (IPCC) 50 . IPCC 6C , 0,74C . 10.000 . , . . Stern2, , 3 , 120 . , 20% , . , 250 3. . , , 2 C, - . 2C,
M
ari
os
VO
NTA
S /
WW
F G
ree
ce
7 350-400 (ppm) (CO
2eq)4.
2 . , CO2eq 475 ppm 64% , 550 ppm, ( 82% ) 2C. CO
2
2006 382 ppm 400 ppm CO
2eq ,
, 10 . ; 10 , , 80-95% 2050 ( 1990). 2020 40%. , . . , , . ,
, . , , . . , , .
WWF
1. (CO2), , , .
2. Stern review on the economics of climate change, 20063. Christian Aid, Human Tide: the real migration crisis, www.christian-aid.org.uk 4. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007, Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007.
8 . 1, . 1, . 1 . 2
1. , 2. WWF
9 (2021-2050) . , . . .
10 2001 :
1. , , .
2. , .
3. , .
4. , , . , .
, , .
RACMO2, (KNMI), 0.25 (25 ). ENSEMBLES (www.ensembles-eu.org), , . 30 1961-1990 , 2021-2050 15 IPCC. , (2021-2050) (1961-1990).
5. 2000, , (1 , 1 , 2 2 ). , , . 4 . 40 , , . . 1 , . , , . 1 1, ( ). 1 : http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.htm
10
G
eo
rge
VE
LL
IDIS
/ W
WF
Gre
ece
11
. . , , , . - . , , . : , , - . , , . . , . . , (
, ), , . , . , . , ( ) . , . ( ), -- ( , ). , ( 1)
2
1
3
5
6
9
4
108
7
-
49
6
10
1
2
5
78 3
12
, , // . , , . 1.
1.
() 789.166
() 385.406
171.616
142.112
132.779
85.001
75.550
63.572
62.452
61.373
: , 2001
1, . (1961-1990) (2021-2050) . . 1, , 35 , . , , 35 . , , , 20
1:
13
(Tmax > 35oC)
M -
-0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93
(max > 35oC)
M -
-0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93
(max > 35oC)
M -
-0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93
(max > 35oC)
M -
-0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93
(max > 35oC)
M -
-0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93
1: 35 C 1961-1990 2021-2050, .
( 1961-1990). , , 15 , , (10 ). , , .
14
A (min > 20oC)
M -
0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.33
A (min > 20oC)
M -
0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.33
A (min > 20oC)
M -
0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.3
A (min > 20oC)
M -
0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.3
A (min > 20oC)
M -
0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.33
2: (Tmin> 20 C) 2021-2050 1961-1990 .
. 20 . ( > 35oC) . 2 . . . , , , , ( ). 20 , .
15
, (flash floods) . 3 . , ( ) . , , . 3 . , , , , . , , . 20%, 15%. 10%.
M - %
-46.24 -33.53 -20.83 -8.12 4.59 17.29 30.00
M - %
-46.24 -34.37 -22.49 -10.62 1.25 13.13 25.00
M - %
-46.24 -34.37 -22.49 -10.62 1.25 13.13 25.00
M - %
-46.24 -33.5 3 -20.83 -8.12 4.59 17.29 30.00
M - %
-46.24 -31.87 -17.4 9 -3.12 11.25 25.63 40.00
3: , 2021-2050 1961-1990
16
. , . 4 . 5C (22C). . , , , 15 , 10 , , , , . 5 .
(CDD>5)
M -
-0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00
(CDD>5)
M -
-0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00
(CDD>5)
M -
-0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00
(CDD>5)
M -
-0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00
(CDD>5)
M -
-0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00
4: 2021-2050 1961-1990 .
17
M
ario
s V
ON
TAS
/ W
WF
Gre
ece
18
. 5 . . 15 .
(HDD>5)
M -
-37.83 -31.52 -25.20 -18.88 -12.57 -6.25 0.07
(HDD>5)
M -
-37.83 -31.52 -25.20 -18.88 -12.57 -6.25 0.07
(HDD>5)
M -
-37.83 -31.52 -25.20 -18.88 -12.57 -6.25 0.07
(HDD>5)
M -
-37.83 -31.52 -25.20 -18.88 -12.57 -6.25 0.07
(HDD>5)
M -
-37.83 -31.52 -25.20 -18.88 -12.57 -6.25 0.07
5: , 2021-2050 1961-1990, .
19
2. (: , : )
(%) () ()
() 10-15 30 10 10 15
() 15-20 30 10 15 15
15-20 30 - 10 15
20
M
ich
alis
BIN
IHA
KIS
/ W
WF
Gre
ece
21
, , , . , , . , , . , . 2030. . , . , .
, , , , . 3.
3.
6
1 120.768
2 63.749
3 63.484
4 59.882
5 50.500
6 46.182
7 34.452
8 29.329
9 29.192
10 27.629
3, , . (2021-2050) (1961-1990). .
6. , . , . .
2
1
3
5
6
9
4
108
7
-
49
6
10
1
2
5
78 3
22
6, 35 , . . , 15 35C, 10-15 . ( ) 10 . . , . 5 10 , , . . , .
(Tmax > 35oC)
M -
-0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93
(Tmax > 35oC)
M -
-0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93
(Tmax > 35oC)
M -
-0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93
(Tmax > 35oC)
M -
-0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93
23
(Tmax > 35oC)
M -
-0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93
(Tmax > 35oC)
M -
-0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93
(Tmax > 35oC)
M -
-0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93
M
ich
alis
BIN
IHA
KIS
/ W
WF
Gre
ece
6: (Tmax>35 C) 2021-2050 1961-1990 .
24
, 20oC . , . 7 .
(min > 20oC)
M -
0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.3
(min > 20oC)
M -
0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.33
(min > 20oC)
M -
0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.33
A (min > 20oC)
M -
0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.33
(min > 20oC)
M -
0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.33
25
, , . , . , .
A (min > 20oC)
M -
0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.33
A (min > 20oC)
M -
0.10 9.81 19.51 29.22 38.92 48.63 58.33
7: (Tmin>20 C) 2021-2050 1961-1990 .
D
imit
ris
KA
RA
VE
LL
AS
/ W
WF
Gre
ece
26
. (Tmax) 25oC. , (, ). 8 . 20 2050 . 30 (. ) . 1 .
(Tmax > 25oC)
M -
1.27 10.73 20.19 29.65 39.11 48.57 58.03
(Tmax > 25oC)
M -
1.27 10.73 20.19 29.65 39.11 48.57 58.03
(Tmax > 25oC)
M -
1.27 10.73 20.19 29.65 39.11 48.57 58.03
(Tmax > 25oC)
M -
1.27 10.73 20.19 29.65 39.11 48.57 58.03
(Tmax > 25oC)
M -
1.27 10.73 20.19 29.65 39.11 48.57 58.03
27
. 9 . , . , 15 10 , . 5 , , , . , .
(Tmax > 25oC)
M -
1.27 10.73 20.19 29.65 39.11 48.57 58.03
(Tmax > 25oC)
M -
1.27 10.73 20.19 29.65 39.11 48.57 58.03
(CDD > 5)
M -
-0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00
(CDD > 5)
M -
-0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00
8: (Tmax>25 C) 2021-2050 1961-1990 .
28
(CDD > 5)
M -
-0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00
(CDD > 5)
M -
-0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00
(CDD>5)
M -
-0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00
9: 2021-2050 1961-1990 .
(CDD>5)
M -
-0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00
(CDD>5)
M -
-0.07 3.28 6.62 9.97 13.31 16.66 20.00
29
10 , , . 10 , , , , , . 15 , (5-10 ).
(FWI > 30)
M -
-4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77
(FWI > 30)
M -
-4.07 0.74 5.55 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77
(FWI > 30)
M -
-4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77
(FWI > 30)
M -
-4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77
(FWI > 30)
M -
-4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77
30
(FWI > 30)
M -
-4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77
(FWI > 30)
M -
-4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77
10: 2021-2050 1961-1990 .
D
imitr
is K
AR
AV
ELL
AS
/ W
WF
Gre
ece
31
4. (: , : )
. . . () ()
5-10 30-40 20-30 10 5-10
15 30 20-30 15 10
10-15 30 20-30 10 10
10 30 20-30 10 5
- 30 25 5-10 -
5-10 30 20-25 10 5
10 30-40 30 10 5
10 30 30 10 5
10 30 20 10 15
5 30 25 5-10 -
D
imitr
is K
AR
AV
ELL
AS
/ W
WF
Gre
ece
32
G
iorg
os
KA
TSA
DO
RA
KIS
/ W
WF
Gre
ece
33
, , 5 . , . . . , , . , - , ( ) ( , , ).
1. 79,182
2. 71,635
3. 53,236
4. 50,459
5. 48,662
6. 47,561
7. 44,710
8. 43,249
9. 42,809
10. 41,166
5. .
, . (2021-2050) (1961-1990) . , ( 11) , 1mm .
2
1
3
5
6
9
4
108
7
-
49
6
10
1
2
5
78 3
34
11 . , 10 , (, , , ). 10 , , 15-20 . , , 25 .
(
35
12 , ( , , ). . , , , , 20 . 15 , 10 : , , , .
(FWI > 30)
M -
-4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77
A (FWI > 30)
M -
-4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77
A (FWI > 30)
M -
-4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77
(FWI > 30)
M -
-4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77
(FWI > 30)
M -
-4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77
12: 2021-2050 1961-1990 .
36
(max > 35oC)
M -
-0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93
(max > 35oC)
M -
-0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93
(max > 35oC)
M -
-0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93
(max > 35oC)
M -
-0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93
13: 35 C 2021-2050 1961-1990 .
(Tmax > 35oC)
M -
-0.03 6.13 12.29 18.45 24.61 30.77 36.93
13 35oC, . . , 20 . 15 .
37
(min
38
, 15 16 . . , , . , .
A
M - %
-48.80 -38.17 -27.54 -16.90 -6.27 4.37 15.00
A
M - %
-48.80 -40.67 -32.54 -24.40 -16.27 -8.13 0.00
A
M - %
-48.80 -39.84 -30.87 -21.90 -12.93 -3.97 5.00
A
M - %
-48.80 -40.67 -32.54 -24.40 -16.27 -8.13 0.00
A
M - %
-48.80 -39.84 -30.87 -21.90 -12.93 -3.97 5.00
15: (%) 2021-2050 1961-1990 .
39
M
auri
RA
UT
KA
RI /
WW
F -
Can
non
40
15 , 15% , . 5-10%.
A
M - %
-40.93 -29.11 -17.29 -5.47 6.36 18.18 30.00
A
M - %
-40.93 -29.11 -17.29 -5.47 6.36 18.18 30.00
A
M - %
-40.93 -30.78 -20.62 -10.47 -0.31 9.84 20.00
A
M - %
-40.93 -30.78 -20.62 -10.47 -0.31 9.84 20.00
A
M - %
-40.93 -27.45 -13.96 -0.47 13.02 26.51 40.00
16 . . , 20%, 15%, 10%. , , , .
( ), , . .
16: (%) 2021-2050 1961-1990 .
41
6. (: , : ) >35 C () () () (%) (%)
10-20 15 15 - 15 15
10 10 15 - 5-10 -
10 10 15 - 5-10 -
10-15 20 20 10-15 5-10 20
10 10 15 - 5-10 -
10 10 15 - 5-10 -
>25 15 15 - 5-10 20
15-20 20 20 10-15 15 -
20 20 15 10-15 5-10 10
15-20 20 15 15 15 15
M
icha
el G
UN
TH
ER
/ W
WF
- C
anno
n
42
G
eorg
e V
ELL
IDIS
/ W
WF
Gre
ece
43
. 50.000 700.000 1.000.000 (7-10 . ) , . , 7 , .. 394 , 284,7 , 197,4 152,9 . , . , . , . , , , . . . , . 10 , 7, .
7.
/ (ha) (1 = 10 )
- 9.300
4.900
, 4.850
3.988
3.812
3.534
, 3.513
3.010
2.862
2.750
7, , . (2021-2050) (1961-1990) . .
7. Dimitrakopoulos A (1994) Analysis of forest fire causes in Greece. Meditteranean Agronomic Institute, Chania
2
1
3
5
6
9
4
108
7
-
49
6
10
1
2
5
78 3
44
17 . . (.. ), .
17 1oC . -, , , 1,3oC.
M -
0.60 0.86 1.12 1.37 1.63 1.89 2.15
M -
0.60 0.86 1.12 1.37 1.63 1.89 2.15
M -
0.60 0.86 1.12 1.37 1.63 1.89 2.15
M -
0.60 0.86 1.12 1.37 1.63 1.89 2.15
M -
0.60 0.86 1.12 1.37 1.63 1.89 2.15
17: 1961-1990 2021-2050.
45
18 . 18 . 1,5oC 2oC. -, , , , , . , . , . .
M -
1.07 1.29 1.51 1.72 1.94 2.15 2.37
M -
1.07 1.29 1.51 1.72 1.94 2.15 2.37
M -
1.07 1.29 1.51 1.72 1.94 2.15 2.37
M -
1.07 1.29 1.51 1.72 1.94 2.15 2.37
M -
1.07 1.29 1.51 1.72 1.94 2.15 2.37
18: 1961-1990 2021-2050.
46
A
M - %
-48.80 -40.67 -32.54 -24.40 -16.27 -8.13 0.00
A
M - %
-48.80 -40.67 -32.54 -24.40 -16.27 -8.13 0.00
A
M - %
-48.80 -38.17 -27.54 -16.90 -6.27 4.37 15.00
A
M - %
-48.80 -39.84 -30.87 -21.90 -12.93 -3.97 5.00
19: (%) 2021-2050 1961-1990 .
19 , . , 15% , , . 10% . - .
G
eorg
e V
ELL
IDIS
/ W
WF
Gre
ece
47
A
M - %
-40.93 -30.78 -20.62 -10.47 -0.31 9.84 20.00
A
M - %
-40.93 -27.45 -13.96 -0.47 13.02 26.51 40.00
A
M - %
-40.93 -29.11 -17.29 -5.47 6.36 18.18 30.00
A
M - %
-40.93 -29.11 -17.29 -5.47 6.36 18.18 30.00
( 20 ) . . , 15% , , , , . 10%. - 5%. .
20: (%) 2021-2050 1961-1990 .
G
eorg
e V
ELL
IDIS
/ W
WF
Gre
ece
48
21, 10 (, -, , , , , ). 15 , ( 5 ) .
, 22 , , , -, 7 . (, , , , ) 15 . 7 .
(FWI > 30)
M -
-4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77
(FWI > 30)
M -
-4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77
(FWI > 30)
M -
-4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77
A (FWI > 30)
M -
-4.07 0.74 5.54 10.35 15.16 19.96 24.77
21: 2021-2050 1961-1990 .
G
eorg
e V
ELL
IDIS
/ W
WF
Gre
ece
49
(< 1 mm)
M -
-19.30 -10.33 -1.36 7.62 16.59 25.56 34.53 (
50
G
iorg
os
KA
TSA
DO
RA
KIS
/ W
WF
Gre
ece
51
, . . , 2020-2050 , 1961-1990. , . , , , , , , . , , 20 , , 20C. , , , , , ( ) 10-20%, . , , , . , , . 2008 .
. , . 5 15 35C . , , , 40 20C. . , . 5 15 , , . , , , ( 5 15 ). ,
52
2020-2050 , 25 C, . , . , , , , ( , ) . , . .
. - . , , , , .
A
chill
eas
PLI
TH
AR
AS
/ W
WF
Gre
ece
53
(, ). - - 2020-2050. , , , . , - , ( ) ( , , ). , , , . , 15-20 . . , , , . , . 2007, , . , . .
. , . , 5 , 15 . , 2007. , , , , , . . , 1,3C -, , , , 15%, (- ) 10-15%, . 2020-2050 . , .
ENSEM-BLES (www.ensembles-eu.org) . . / .
54
M
ario
s V
ON
TAS
/ W
WF
Gre
ece
55
WWF
, . , . , WWF , , 2050. WWF : 2050, 2008, , , . , 2050 67% 1990. 36 . (CO2) 2050 ( 109 . 1990). , 3% 2020, 1,5% 2020 2050, . , , , , , , . , , , (). , 2050 73.000 GWh, 58%, 23% 16%,
/ . WWF . , , 67% 2050 20 CO2. 0,7% , - .. , . , - - 2 2013 , .
, . , , , ,
56
, , . . , . , . , , . , . , (Caretta caretta) , WWF , 1 , 51% . , 1 2009, . , , , , , ., 2007 . . , , , , .
.
, WWF : 2050. , , . . .
WWF 26, 10558, .: 210 3314893, Fax: 210 3247578, [email protected]
artw
ork:
dim
itris
lyko
s