ZONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS OF A STRATEGIC PLANNING APPROACH … · 2019-04-12 · IATSS RESEARCH Vol.28 No.2, 2004 • 57 ZONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS OF A STRATEGIC PLANNING APPROACH FOR LAND

IATSS RESEARCH Vol.28 No.2, 2004 • 55

ZONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS OF A STRATEGIC PLANNING APPROACH FOR LAND DEVELOPMENT CONTROLS K. LIMAPORNWANITCH, K. TEKNOMO, K. HOKAO, A. FUKUDA

ZONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS OF A STRATEGICPLANNING APPROACH FOR LAND DEVELOPMENT

CONTROLS– A Case Study of Bangkapi, Bangkok –

Karin LIMAPORNWANITCH Kardi TEKNOMODepartment of Civil Engineering, Saga University, Saga, Japan Institute of Lowland Technology, Saga University, Saga, Japan

Kazunori HOKAO Atsushi FUKUDAProfessor Professor

Department of Civil Engineering, Saga University College of Science and Technology, Nihon UniversitySaga, Japan Chiba, Japan

(Received April 14, 2004)

Due to rapid urban developments in developing cities, the integration of land-use and transportation planning is very necessary. However, up-to-date land-use and transportation interaction planning is still difficult, because of rapid urbanization and complex relationships. The lack of humanresources, budget, and necessary data are some of the hindrances. The planners in Bangkok have tried to utilize Traffic Impact Assessment (TIA) inharmonizing land developments and transportation improvements, but without a complete land-use comprehensive plan, the TIA cannot effectivelymanage urbanization. This paper intends to propose a Zonal Impact Analysis (ZIA) framework as a strategic planning tool to balance travel demandsof land developments and performance of transportation systems over urban areas. First, the land-use planning situation in Bangkok is explained,afterwards the framework is described. The framework is applied into Bangkapi areas as a case study. Both single and simultaneous developmentcases are considered. It was found that more comprehensive development alternatives were established. The most suitable zone for a single projectis Zone 179, as the advantages of location in the center of radial networks, so full accessibility can be provided. Without any network improvements inZone 179, the simultaneous developments should be implemented in Zone 168 and 173, as high capacities of the expressway are available. Theresults give a better understanding on the characteristics of land-use and transportation planning in Bangkapi. Finally, it was emphasized that the ZIAframework is a strategic planning alternative to increase the capabilities of growth management for sustainable developments.

Key Words: Traffic impact, Impact assessment, Zonal Impact Analysis, Land-use control, Strategic planning approach

1. BACKGROUND

The transportation improvements and land-use con-trols of mega-urban regions in developing countries havenot kept pace with the economic and urbanization growthfor years. It has been pointed out that in developing cit-ies urbanization is very rapid and dramatic, so the inte-gration of land-use and transportation planning is verynecessary1. However, up-to-date the interdependence ofurban forms and transportation networks are still ignoredin Southeast Asian cities like Bangkok, Jakarta, and Ma-nila1-3. Particularly in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region(BMR), because the gross region domestic product percapita (GRDP) had increased from 1978 to 1988 asshown in Figure 1, it resulted into the growth of popula-tion, and the expansion of urbanized areas (see Figure 2).

From Figure 2, it can be seen that the areas within2.5 km from the city center were saturated, the number

of people in this area have increased at a very small ratearound 0.1% during 1980 to 1986. In the opposite, thepopulation of districts in the vicinity and suburb an ar-eas were still increased at a rather high rate of about 2-4%. This tendency represents the suburbanization ofBMR, that residential areas and activity centers are mov-ing into the suburbs. Although, during the period of theeconomic crisis, 1997 – 2002, the urbanization processof Bangkok slowed down, after 2002 the growth has beenstimulated again. Based on various development projectswithout any control strategies in suburban areas, Bangkokhas become an auto-dependent city with severe trafficcongestion spread from its core to suburban districts. Thispaper aims to propose an alternative strategic planningapproach, the Zonal Impact Analysis (ZIA) model, to bal-ance travel demands of land developments and perfor-mance of transportation systems over urban areas. First,the land-use planning situation in Bangkok is explained,and followed by the concept of the ZIA framework. Sec-

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56 • IATSS RESEARCH Vol.28 No.2, 2004

ond, the framework application is described through acase the study of the Bangkapi area. Finally, the resultsof study are discussed and summarized in the conclusion.

2. LAND-USE AND TRANSPORTATIONPLANNING IN BANGKOK

Land-use and transportation planning for Bangkokwere principally integrated for the first time in the Sev-enth National Economic and Social Development Planduring 1992-1996. Under this plan, any new developmentproject in Bangkok had to be controlled by the Enhance-ment and Conservation of National Environmental Qual-ity Act of 1992. This means that the owner of adevelopment project that has a number of parking lots ofmore than 300 parking units or gross floor areas largerthan 2,000 square meters must conduct an environmen-tal impact study, and submit a report to the Building Con-trol Division (BCD) of the Bangkok MetropolitanAdministration (BMA). The developer has to mitigate theadverse development impacts based on the suggestionsof BCD for the project approval.

However, the Seventh plan was unsuccessful, dueto the fragmentation of the responsibilities of the agen-cies concerned with: road building, infrastructure pro-gram, housing, and land-use plans. In fact, the inefficientplan and ineffective enforcement were also the main rea-sons for fruitlessly implementing the land-use controls.The plan has little or no control over the intensity of de-velopment nor does it suggest the meaningful ranges ofdensity in each area or type of land-use. Worst of all, re-gardless of the size and location of a project, any devel-

opment project can be officially approved as long as itdoes not violate the basic rules, including structurally safestandards in the Building Control Law, types of land-useprohibited by the City Planning Law. The existing rulesfor planning tools can only control the project as part ofthe building control system focusing on the buildingrather than its location that is a very important factor4.At present, it is under the Ninth plan (2002-2006), its goalis to decentralize the Bangkok Metropolitan Area intosuburban areas like a polycentric city. It can be noticedthat most specific contents of each plan in each periodare insignificantly different, therefore the weak points offormer plans cannot be significantly improved in the lat-ter ones. To coordinate transportation improvements andland-use developments, most transportation projects re-fer to the land-use zoning plan provided in the compre-hensive land-use planning process of BMA as shownFigure 3.

From the process, it is noticed that the transporta-tion components are included into the land-use planningsteps as an inactive element. The effects of land-usechanges on transportation systems, especially in terms oftrip generation, are not taken into account. It can be per-ceived that the comprehensive plan of BMA is plannedwithout a systematic and analytical approach for trans-portation components. Any land-use types or regulationsmainly come from the consideration of existing condi-tions, such as the existing land-use characteristics, physi-cal environment of networks etc. The outcomes of thisplanning approach can be satisfied, if the city growth isnot so rapid, and the relationship of urban structural com-ponents are not complex. However, this is inappropriatefor swift urbanization and complicated interactions of theBMR. It cannot analyze the transportation capabilities in

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Fig. 1 Trends of increase of GRDP for BMR in 1978-1988

Fig. 2 Population growth for BMR urbanization in1970s-1980s



serving the land developments in each area. Particularly,when the government plans to expand Bangkok into sub-urban districts, it may be leading more ribbon develop-ments along the main routes, and creating more superblock areas in the city.

It is realized that to efficiently perform the integra-tion of land-use and transportation planning, their inter-actions ought to be deliberated through advancedsimulation techniques. However, in developing cities,such as Bangkok, Manila, and Jakarta, their urban growthis so rapid and complex, because of high density mixedland usages, hence it is very intricate to do so. In addi-tion, there are the limitations of lack of human resources,budget, necessary reliable data 1. The recent progress ofland-use and transportation planning integration in devel-

oping countries are the challenges of traffic impact as-sessment (TIA) applications6,7.

3. ZONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS:A STRATEGIC PLANNING ALTERNATIVE FOR

LAND-USE AND TRANSPORTATION PLANNING

As explained before, the comprehensive land-useplanning process in Bangkok neglects to systematicallydetermine the land-use effects towards the transportationperformances in each area. This leads to omit the basicland-use control rules about types and densities of build-ings, which can have significant effects on traffic. Some

Fig. 3 The process of developing a comprehensive land-use plan in Bangkok

Identify the strategy of land use plans Consider to enact land use regulations + The Bangkok Administration Act Refer to the land use rules + Identify the zoning regulations + Identify the land use rules - Setback - Number of stories - Spacing between buildings - FAR, BCR, OSR - Type of buildings or activities - Lot size - Height of buildings - Open space

Identify the areas, goals and objectives

Field Survey Land usage and Buildings Transportation Characteristics People’s opinion in the surrounding areas

Data Collection Physical Conditions Socio-economic conditions Populations

Data Analysis Report the results of study Table Map Figures Graphs

The Final Land Use Plans

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examples of existing basic rules are limits on floor arearatio, building setback, plot size, and spacing of entranceor exit from the properties to main roads. To cope withthe development densities, only the basic rules about giv-ing the allowable percentage of non confirming use withinany zone is utilized, for example in a commercial area,other uses are limited to increase up to 10% of the totalarea for each of them. There is no mention of a trafficplan in the comprehensive plan, or no serious concernsabout the network capability carrying travel demands ina developed area.

The direction of land-use developments and trans-portation improvements in developing countries is am-biguous. Most actions in their planning skills are justtrying to apply some successful practices from other de-veloped countries into those countries without a system-atic planning process. Similar to the applications of TIAin Bangkok, although planners attempt to employ it tobalance between travel demands and facility capacities,but they will not be able to avoid the situation of demandexceeding supply over urban areas. As the TIA concen-trates on a site specific impact analysis, it cannot examinethe harmonization of land-use developments and trans-portation performance at the macro level or whole urbanarea. It is pointless to discuss the lack of TIA standards,experts, and rigorous enforcements in Bangkok. For de-veloped countries, the TIA can function well to mitigatethe negative impacts of a project, because they have verycomplete comprehensive land-use plans, and also strongregulations and enforcement. Therefore, what the plan-ners in developing countries urgently need is a strategicplanning tool to develop their complete comprehensiveland-use plan.

3.1 A strategic planning approach: Zonal ImpactAnalysis modelGenerally, strategic planning is defined as a set of

concepts, procedures, and tools designed to help plannersor decision makers think and act strategically8. To im-prove the comprehensive land-use plan at the macro levelof BMR planning, the strategic planning approach is vi-tal. This paper intends to propose an alternative tool ofstrategic planning approach, Zonal Impact Analysis(ZIA) framework, to systematically control or design theland-use into the desired direction of sustainable devel-opment cities.

The ZIA framework, as shown in Figure 4, aims toassess the effects of land developments on the networksin each zone. It can aid planners to know the developmentcapacities in each area, and limit their suitable sizes or

types of development. Furthermore, the ZIA frameworkis designed to evaluate not only traffic impacts, but theirsecondary impact, including environmental and economicimpacts. The framework is separated into four parts, con-sisting of land-use development directions, transportationnetwork database system, zonal impact assessment, andevaluation of land development alternatives. The detailsof each part can be described as follows:

The land-use development directions: This partconsiders the performances of land development in eachurban zone based on the zonal characteristics, includingavailable spaces, population, the existing infrastructureetc. All zones should be included in the evaluation to in-vestigate the direction of land development. The neces-sary data, including land-use, travel, and socioeconomicdata, is in the zonal base, an existing data format of ur-ban planning databases for most metropolitan cities. Inthis case, the data acquisition is not costly compared tothe establishment of a new database system. Moreover,the national and regional plans should be considered asa basic direction to provide a consistent plan with thesame development goal. For example, the decentraliza-tion of Bangkok is the main policy at present, thus thedirections for developing each suburban center must beconsidered to know which parts of the city have the de-velopment potential in the future. The type, size, andother characteristics of land-use projects must be consid-ered based on the real situation. All possible tendenciesshould be included in the analysis.

The transportation network database system:The transportation database system usually is prepared forthe whole city area, not for the zone-bases. To appraisethe zonal impact, planners need to rearrange existing da-tabases into the zone-base formats. The total networkshave to be classified and kept into the zones where theyare located. Eventually, the new databases can representwhich zone occupies which parts in the total network. Thepresent conditions of urban travel characteristics in thestudy area, including Origin-Destination (O-D) distribu-tions, mode splits etc., are utilized as the base case in theimpact assessment process. According to the previousstep, the expected development projects appraise the ef-fects on the transportation systems, such as trip genera-tion and distribution for the project. The trafficsimulations for the base case (or without developmentproject) and with project cases are performed to evalu-ate the impact.

The zonal impact assessment: The traffic impact,such as vehicle-delays, vehicle-kilometers, etc., are quan-tified in this step by considering the zonal level. Next,



these traffic impacts are utilized into the processes of en-vironmental and economic impact assessments. To evalu-ate both kinds of secondary impact, the inventory dataof essential models, parameters, basic information, such

as air pollution prediction models, vehicle operating costestimation model, and value of time, in the study areamust be collected and reviewed.

Fig. 4 The framework of Zonal Impact Analysis (ZIA) model

Environmental impacts- air pollutions (CO, SOx, NOx)- noise pollution

Consider with land use plans and regulations in zones

allowable project type and size, the basic rules, including setback,

plot size, etc.

Prepare networks for high potential zone

- networks for each zone(in zone-base)

Land Use Development Directions

Transportation Network Database System

Zonal Impact Assessment

Evaluate the development performance of all zones

available spaces, population, existing infrastructures, etc.

Selected High Potential Zones Selected Development Projects

Network database forwhole urban areas

- networks- trip characteristics- socio-economic data

The existing networks and trip characteristics in zone-base

(for the base case)- O-D trip patterns- trip characteristics

The effects of land developments on network

- trip generation- trip distribution- mode splits

Simulation Model: Strategic Transportation Planning Program

Evaluation of Land Development Alternatives

The Impact Evaluation and Analysis

The Development of Comprehensive Land Use Plan based on Transportation Capabilities for Each Zone

Economic cost estimation models- vehicle operating cost models- average car occupancy, time value

Traffic impactvolume, veh-km,

speed, delays, etc.

Environmental pollution prediction models

- air pollution models- noise pollution models

Economic impacts- vehicle operating costs- travel time costs

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The evaluation of land development alternatives:After the zonal impact assessment process, the results ofall cases are analyzed and compared to find an optimumdevelopment alternative, which maximizes the social ben-efits or minimizes the social costs. Based on the selectedalternative, the comprehensive land-use plan can be per-formed to harmonize between land developments andtransportation capabilities for each area of a city. The un-desired impacts, including more congestion, high travelcosts, environment degradation, should be diminished tolead the city into sustainable development.

To illustrate the application of the proposed ZIAframework, a case study was conducted. The study wasapplied to Bangkapi District of Bangkok to illustrate howto employ the proposed framework to improve the exist-ing land-use planning by concerning transportation issues.The details are explained in the next section.

4. THE APPLICATION OF THE ZONALIMPACT ANALYSIS MODEL:

A CASE STUDY OF BANGKAPI AREA

This section aims to demonstrate the application ofthe ZIA framework through a case study. The study areaincludes the zones of Bangkapi and Wangthonglang dis-tricts. As these zones belonged to Bangkapi District be-fore 1998, hereafter they were called Bangkapi area inthis paper. Based on the ZIA framework, the study is ex-plained step by step. First, to analyze the characteristicsof the study area, its general information is reviewed. Thisintends to draw the present conditions of Bangkapi, andinvestigates the development potentials to represent fu-ture tendencies. The high potential zones are selected andanalyzed in the next step. Second, the samples of devel-opment projects are selected and their characteristics areexplained. To concern every development case, all pos-sible analysis strategies are prepared and simulated by thetraffic simulation program. After the simulations, theirimpacts are quantified in the process of zonal impact as-sessment. Finally, the analysis of impact assessments isconducted to interpret the results of the study.

This research mainly utilized the transportation da-tabase networks, geographical data, and socio-economicdata of BMR. The necessary data was available from theUrban Transport Database and Model Development(UTDM) Project established in 1995, and the TransportData and Model Center (TDMC) Project in 2000. More-over, the indispensable data of land-use planning were

also included in the analysis.

4.1 The background of study areasThe study areas are located in the middle of two de-

velopment directions of BMR, the North and South-Eastdevelopment directions. They include Huamark,Khlongchan, and Wangthonglang sub districts with areasof 16.461, 12.788, and 19.655 km2 respectively. There aremany main transportation facilities implemented, particu-larly for the Ramintra-Atnarong expressway, Ramkamhang,Nawamin, Serithai, Srinakarin, and Ladproa roads. Thesenetworks promote the Bangkapi areas to be a business andactivity center. Moreover, according to the Second BangkokInternational Airport Project, it significantly supports to ur-banize the city from the core of Bangkok into the Bangkapiarea (see Figure 5).

Based on the databases of UTDM project, the studyareas were separated into 14 zones, and the populationfor each zone in 2003 was estimated in Figure 6. The to-tal population of the study area is about 483,604 people.The zoning system of Bangkapi area follows the exist-ing transportation databases, both UTDM and TDMCprojects. The projects separated the sub districts from theland-use plan into the zonal level in order to perform theurban travel simulation. The current growth rate of popu-lation in the study areas is about 1.40% annually.

4.2 The land-use conditions of the study areaIn Bangkapi, the agricultural areas and vacant

spaces are about 15.46% of the total area. This representsthat most of the Bangkapi area is dedicated for buildingsand activity areas as shown in Figure 7. The houses orvillages are the highest proportion of land usage, at about3,734,668.05 m2 or 73.41% of the total activity area. The

Fig. 5 The location and transportation networks ofBangkapi area

The Second Bangkok International airport Project

Internal Study AreaExternal Study AreaRamintra-Atnarong ExpresswayRamkamhang RoadNawamin RoadSerithai RoadSrinakarin RoadLadprao Road

Bangkapi Business Center



second is for office buildings, about 1,080,560.75 m2 or21.24%. The remaining includes the commercial houses,industrial and store areas, and others. The land prices ofthese areas are gradually raised as the results of economicbenefits increase. By considering the location ofBangkapi, and its infrastructure performance, it is be-lieved that Bangkapi has full potential for land develop-

ment. In particular, it can play the role as the transitionzone to connect between inner and outer Bangkok areasin the Eastbound approach9.

The main transportation networks in Bangkapi arethe arterial roads connected as a radial network by ap-proaching the Bangkapi Business Center. These roads areconnected together by local roads and small streets in thearea. Based on the economic growth, many commercialareas are expanded along main roads. Due to its own po-tential and the growth direction of BMR, the planners de-cided to develop the Bangkapi Business Center as the maincenter in this area. They also proposed to develop thecommercial area along Ramkamhang road. These land de-

Potential Zones for the Development Projects

Zone 1712753

Zone 17217897

Zone 17347712

Zone 17938201

Zone 18010000

Zone 17660723

Zone 1772475

Zone 17836684

Zone 17418150

Zone 16946211Zone 170

28370

Zone 16758219

Zone 16847268

Zone 17568941

Unit of Population: Person

Fig. 6 Populations in each zone and the location ofZones 168, 173, and 179

Desire Lines for OD Zone Pairs(Line sizes based on the scales)

Fig. 9 The O-D distribution in the internal areas ofBangkapi area

Secondary Business Center AreasService Business Center AreasBusiness Center AreasLow Den. Residential Areas of Med. RiseLow Den. Residential Areas of Low RiseMedium Den. Residential Areas

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23

Fig. 7 The existing land-use conditions in Bangkapiarea

Residential Areas

Business Areas

Industrial & Store Areas

Government & Public Health Offices

Educational Places

Ladprao District

Bangkapi Business Center

Pravet District

Religious Places

Activity Places

Open Spaces

Agricultural Places

Bangkapi District

Fig. 8 The land-use plan and transport networks of Bangkapi area

Source: estimated from TDMC, 2000Source: DCP, 20029

Source: estimated from UTDM

Source: DCP, 20029

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velopment plans of BMA can be illustrated in Figure 8.4.3 The characteristics of the analyzed development

projectsTo analyze the impact of development projects, this

study chose to consider a shopping center project as theanalyzed development project. Due to a lot of residentsliving in Bangkapi area, many projects for shopping cen-ters have been proposed by developers. The research con-ducted field surveys to investigate the possible locationsfor development projects. In addition, the present char-acteristics of each zone, such as populations, present land-use conditions, provided infrastructure, available spacesetc., were also considered to evaluate those possible lo-cations. Eventually, there were three potential zones, in-cluding Zone 168, 173, and 179, selected fordemonstrating the ZIA application. As the consequencesof expanding transport networks, like the Ramintra-Atnarong expressway, it can be expected that the zonesnext to this expressway, Zones 168 and 170, will be builtup in the future. Nonetheless, because of a large numberof people, only Zone 168 was selected for the analysis.In fact, this zone is controlled as a low residential area,but the land-use regulations in the study area are veryweak. As the exception, if a big commercial project canprovide the right of way from the main road more than18 meters, the project can be approved by the adminis-tration. In addition, if in the area there is the proportionof such land-use project less than 10% of the total area,the project can be approved. For Zone 173 and 179, be-cause they are located in the promoted areas of BangkapiBusiness Center and also the direction of eastbound de-velopments along Ramkamhang and Serithai roads, thereis no doubt to include them in the study.

Regarding the research of traffic generation of shop-ping center projects located in suburban centers ofBangkok, the average trip generation rates for weekdays

and weekends were estimated about 2.92, and 3.36 pcu-trips/100 m2/a day, respectively10. It was assumed that theanalyzed shopping center project occupies a service areaof about 200,000 square meters. From the field survey, itwas found that the critical period of the Bangkapi area, par-ticularly for traveling to shopping or commercial areas, isthe evening peak hour of weekdays. Therefore, the studyconducted traffic simulations and impact assessments byconsidering the evening peak period on weekdays.

To cover all possible development cases, not onlythe cases of single development in a single zone wereconsidered, but the cases of simultaneous developments,often occurring in Bangkok and other developing Asiancities, were also included as shown in Table 1. All simul-taneous development cases referred to the same type andsize of project in order to determine the real effects oftransportation capabilities in serving travel demands ofeach zone. These cases were simulated and analyzed intothe steps of traffic simulations, and impact assessment andanalysis, respectively.

4.4 The traffic simulations of analysis casesThe traffic simulations were performed based on the

network and trip databases of the TDMC project. Thenecessary network and trip data for the zones inside ofand surrounding Bangkapi area were provided as the datafor 14 internal and 13 external zones, respectively (SeeFigure 5). The transportation networks and the present O-D trip distribution patterns of the internal areas of the casestudy are demonstrated into Figures 8 and 9. To simu-late the present travel behaviors and the traffic generatedby the project, the Strategic Transportation Planning Pro-gram was developed and employed for this research. InTable 2, it shows the simulated traffic indicators, includ-ing vehicle-kilometer (pcu-km/hr), vehicle-travel time(pcu-hr/hr), average speed (km/hr), and total flows (pcu/

Table 1 The analysis cases of the Zonal Impact Analysis

Type Group Analysis Case Zone 168 Zone 173 Zone 179

The Base Case Without Project Case No. 1

Case No. 2 —

Single Development One Project Case No. 3 —

Case No. 4 —

Case No. 5 — —

Simultaneous Developments Two Projects Case No. 6 — —

Case No. 7 — —

Three Projects Case No. 8 — — —

Note: — means that the development project implemented in the zone.



hr), for the whole study areas consisting of internal andexternal zones.

From the results, all development cases were in-creased in all indicators when compared to the base casewithout the project. This indicates that more trips weregenerated in the internal and external study areas, so traf-fic conditions in some areas become more congested.Case No. 8 should be imposed by the most severe trafficimpact, as the new shopping center projects were imple-mented in all three zones. Although the numbers of ve-hicle-kilometers and vehicle-travel time in Case No. 4 and5 were higher than in the base case, their average speedsof the total area could be improved from 7.57 km/h inthe base case to 7.60 km/h. This might be because thetraffic was reassigned in the networks more efficiently.These traffic indicators were not only evaluated for thewhole area, but they were also performed in each zoneso that the zonal impact distributions could be evidentlyconsidered. Particularly, they were utilized to estimate thezonal economic impacts caused by development projectsin the next step. However, this study mainly focuses onthe impacts of land developments in Bangkapi area, sothe economic impacts generated in only 14 internal zonesare estimated. The impact of external zones were neglectedin this article. Therefore, the traffic indicators and economicimpact of internal zones in each development alternativemight be increased or decreased from the base case.

4.5 The Zonal Impact Assessment for the develop-ment projectsThe impacts are defined as the changes of traffic in-

dicators in the network. The zonal impact of vehicle-kilo-meters, vehicle-travel time, and total flow can be estimatedas their summations from all links in a zone. For averagespeed, it is averaged by travel distances and travel time ina zone. These impacts were used to estimate the secondaryeconomic impacts in the internal zones of Bangkapi area.

They included travel time and vehicle operating costs inevaluating development plan alternatives. To estimate theeconomic costs, the value of time and vehicle operating costestimation models developed by the Department of High-ways (DOH), Thailand (2000)11 were applied in the study.It was estimated that in 2003 the value of time for workingor educational trips, and non working trips are 59.603, and14.903 Baht/hour/person respectively. The average car oc-cupancy rate for Bangkok was estimated at about 1.4 pas-sengers/car. The distribution patterns of additional travelimpact costs for each zone can be illustrated in Figures10(a)-10(g). In the figures, the impacts arranged into 5 lev-els, from very low (0-40,000 Baht/hour), low (40,000-80,000 Baht/hour), medium (80,000-120,000 Baht/hour),high (120,000-160,000 Baht/hour), and very high impacts(160,000-200,000 Baht/hour), respectively. To find the suit-able development conditions, the total economic impact forall cases was considered in the analyses as illustrated inTable 3.

However, this study has some limitations of devel-oped traffic simulation program, as it can not simulatethe internal trips and the effects of junction delays. There-fore, when the internal trips in the developed zones wereincreased, because of higher attractiveness, it would re-duce the number of trips going out from the zone. Thismight make the traffic conditions in that zone seeminglyless congested than before, but not actually. If the effectsof internal trips and the intersection delays can be con-sidered, more realistic impacts can be presented. Theserequire improving the performance of the simulation pro-gram in order to cover the capabilities of micro simula-tions for further research.

4.6 The single development caseBased on the total zonal economic impact, it was

found out that in the single development case, Zone 179was the most suitable area for the proposed shopping cen-

Table 2 The total traffic indicators of internal and external zones for eachanalysis case

Case Vehicle-kilometer Vehicle-travel Time Average Speed Total Flows

No. 1 749,397 98,960 7.57 1,656,150

No. 2 779,862 105,430 7.40 1,721,747

No. 3 764,493 103,327 7.40 1,681,464

No. 4 753,372 99,100 7.60 1,663,542

No. 5 756,046 99,492 7.60 1,669,236

No. 6 766,157 103,974 7.37 1,687,941

No. 7 779,158 102,771 7.58 1,703,579

No. 8 784,528 106,995 7.33 1,747,249

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(a) Case No. 2 (b) Case No. 3

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Fig. 10 The negative economic impact distribution of each development case

Very Low ImpactLow ImpactMedium ImpactHigh ImpactVery High Impact



ter project, due to its location advantages. Zone 179 islocated in the center of the radial network in Bangkapi,there are many main roads approaching this zone. How-ever, the additional travel cost impacts caused by theproject was imposed into Zone 169, 170, 178, and 179,respectively as illustrated in Figure 10 (c). This might bebecause these zones have good networks connected toZone 179, so travelers want to pass through them. Espe-cially for Zone 170, because of the located expressway,many travelers pass through the zone with a very high im-pact. For Zone 168 and 173, they were the second and third,respectively. Zone 168 was more suitable than Zone 173,as it has a better transportation system, the Ramintra-Atnarong expressway. It was noticed that most trips to Zone168 produced from Zone 167, 170, 176, 178, and 179, andalso in these zones there were networks to access Zone 168easily, hence a lot of economic impacts generated alongthese areas as demonstrated in Figure 10 (a).

4.7 The simultaneous development caseAs shown in Table 2, if there were two of the same

project implemented in two zones at the same time or ina certain period, the best case was the implementation ofprojects in Zones 168 and 173 as shown by reduced travelcost impacts, -3,370 Baht/hour. It might be because thecase of development projects in Zone 168 and 173 couldattract some trips that concentrated in the areas of Zone176 and 178, very crowded commercial areas alongRamkamhang road, to their areas. Many trips that travelthrough Zone 170, 176, and 178, could go directly to thenew activity areas, eventually it facilitated to efficientlyrearrange traffic distribution in the network. The devel-opments in Zone 173 and 179 were the second suitablealternative. They generated higher negative impacts thanin the case of Zone 168 and 173, this might be becauseZone 173 and 179 are in the central areas that are verycrowded and congested, especially along Ladproa andRamkamhang roads. The performances of networks

around Bangkapi Business Center could not handle theaccess demands of projects, so more congestion wasspread out along the two main roads. As demonstratedin Figure 10 (f), Ladprao road in Zone 175 andRamkamhang road in Zone 178 were significantly af-fected from the land development projects. In addition,the expressway in Zone 168 connecting between Ladpraoand Ramkamhang roads were also more congested, dueto the new developments in Zone 173 and 179. Finally,there was no doubt that the case of development in allthree zones had the most severe impact as illustrated inFigure 10 (g). From the assessments, it was very obvi-ous that the capabilities of the transportation system inthe developed zones should be evaluated to control or bal-ance between the travel demands of any activity area andtheir own network capabilities.

From the results of impact assessments, it wasfound that the locations of zones can influence the per-formances of areas serving land developments. The ar-eas located near the high capacity networks have the fullcapabilities to handle the access demands of forthcom-ing activity centers, and the impacts generated in suchzones will be insignificant. This point is realized by plan-ners in Bangkapi, and they planed to implement Zone 179as the business center. The zone is in the center of radialnetworks connected by five main roads, so the completenetwork performances are sufficiently provided. How-ever, in approving simultaneous developments, plannersmust improve the performance of infrastructure inBangkapi to catch up with the demands of multi-projects.They can continue to promote Zone 179 as the center, butother projects in other zones have to be seriously prohib-ited as the comprehensive plan. Otherwise, those devel-opments will create a lot of adverse impacts for society.Without any network improvements in Zone 179, twoshopping center projects should be implemented in Zone168 and 173, as the better transportation services can beprovided by the high capacities of the expressway in Zone

Table 3 The comparison of total economic impact for all development cases

Type Group Development Case Rank Total Zonal Economic Impacts

Case No.2 2 375,651

Single Development One Project Case No.3 3 394,187

Case No.4 1 -92,966

Case No.5 1 -3,370

Simultaneous DevelopmentsTwo Projects Case No.6 3 348,072

Case No.7 2 308,178

Three Projects Case No.8 4 385,675

Unit: Baht per Hour

TRANSPORTATION


168. The ZIA framework can evidently demonstrate thezonal impact distributions to show which zone will be sig-nificantly affected from any land usage. It was found thatthe zone occupying the better networks will play the roleas the main impact distributor to allocate or mitigate theimpact. As shown in Zone 170, it is the zone mostly in-fluenced by traffic impact of the proposed project(s). Inaddition, after implementing any projects, the over-crowded zones around a developed area are more signifi-cantly affected than the less congested zones. This wasindicated in Zone 178 often imposed by severe develop-ment impacts for analysis cases. Planners should paymore attention to these zones.

The existing approach of planners in BMR cannotcope with the complex development situation, especiallywhen more than one project is implemented over the cityarea. Only the considerations of existing physical conditionsconsisting of land-use and networks in the present land-useplanning process are insufficient, so the ZIA framework wasproposed to improve the planning ability. The ZIA frame-work is beneficial to enhance the powers of regulations andplans for land-use planning. By conducting various simu-lations, the influences of project size can be covered in theplanning process. Therefore, the suitable limitations of de-velopment sizes for each area can be determined and re-ferred to as the rules or standards in the land-use controlplan. The transportation improvement plans can be deter-mined so that they are compatible with the planned landdevelopments or not. If the plans fit with the directions ofurban expansion, the traffic impact of developments shouldbe minimized and mitigated efficiently.

It can be noticed that the ZIA framework consistsof four characteristics of a strategic planning approach12.First, it is oriented toward the future. It recognizes thatthe land-use conditions will change in the future. It is along range orientation, one that tries to anticipate eventsrather than simply react as they occur. It is recognizedthat future land developments are difficult to be con-trolled, but argues that by anticipating future develop-ments, the plans can help to shape and minimize theunfavorable impacts of urban developments. Second, thestrategic approach has an external emphasis. Many ex-ternal components are concerned, such as the political in-fluences on national and regional development plans,various secondary development impacts like pollution andtravel cost impacts. In fact, it can be extended to coverother external matters such as political and social dimen-sions etc. Third, the strategic approach concentrates onassuring a good fit between the real land-use conditionsand planned ones and attempts to anticipate what will be

required to assure continued fit. Under the conditions ofrapid urbanization in developing cities, the ZIA frame-work can quickly and continuously be re-assessed andmodified as the situation evolves. Finally, the ZIAframework is a process. It is continuous and recognizesthe need to be open to changing goals and activities inlight of shifting circumstances within the urban growthconditions. It is a process that requires monitoring andreview mechanisms capable of feeding information toplanners continuously. The strategic planning approachis not something that can be applied only once and for-gotten or ignored. The planners can apply the ZIAframework to assess the land development impact ontransportation networks, and try to control proposed landdevelopments together with the enhancement of networkperformances in the focused areas every 5 years the sameas the planning horizon of the National Economic and So-cial Development Plan and the National TransportationPlan as illustrated in Figure 11. It attempts to minimizethe undesired consequences of urbanization in some zonesor for the whole study area. The growth in developingcities is very rapid, so direct long term planning may notbe suitable, due to a lot of uncertainties. The proposedframework can be expected to investigate the influencesof land-use developments, and supports planners to miti-gate adverse impacts. Although it may not be able toreach the planned target in the short term, it can providethe direction to manage the growth and gradually imple-ment some control or mitigation measures for any activ-ity areas in the comprehensive land-use plan. Eventually,it will create the balances of land developments and in-frastructure provisions with good living environments forthe cities.

5. CONCLUDING REMARKS

This paper intends to present the Zonal Impact

Unplanned Growths

Planned Growths

Planning Horizon

Adverse Impact Decrease

ExistingLevel

Present 5th Year 10th Year

Indi

cato

r Le

vel

Milestone

HistoricalData

Fig. 11 The multi planning stages of ZIA framework instrategic planning approach



Analysis (ZIA) framework to improve comprehensiveland-use planning for balancing land developments andtransportation performance in developing cities. The land-use planning process in Bangkok and its problems weremainly explained as a case study. Although, theBangkokian planners have tried to apply the traffic im-pact assessment (TIA) to mitigate the impact of devel-opment projects, it is insufficient to effectively controlthe urban growth, as the TIA focuses on the specific sitelevel only. In particular, the situation worsens, when theland-use planning process does not seriously concern theeffects of land developments on the networks. It waspointed out that what the planners need is the tool to sys-tematically establish the effective comprehensive land-useplan in controlling land developments of each area to becompatible with their transportation performances.

The ZIA framework was defined as a tool for astrategic planning approach. Under the framework, theimpacts generated by the developments were evaluatedbased on the zone base model. To demonstrate the frame-work application, it was applied to the Bangkapi District,Bangkok. It was found that the zonal impact assessmentshelp to find an optimum development alternative to co-operate between transportation planning and land-useplanning that mainly a uses zoning system in land-usecontrol. The zonal impact distributions were also obvi-ously demonstrated so that planners can prepare someimpact relieving measures in advance, especially in thesignificantly affected zones.

In the results of a ZIA case study, more compre-hensive development alternatives were established andtheir zonal impacts could be evaluated. It was recom-mended that the most suitable zone for a single projectis Zone 179. Because the zone is located in the center ofa radial network, full accessibility can be provided toserve the forthcoming project. However, in simultaneousdevelopments, if none of any network improvements inZone 179, two projects should be implemented in Zone168 and 173, as the high network capacities of the ex-pressway are available. In addition, Zone 170 and 178would be significantly imposed by the severe develop-ment impacts, so planners should pay more attention tomitigate in these zones. Especially for Zone 170, becauseof its high quality of transportation services, it attractsmore additional trips to the zone as bypass trips togetherwith a more congested situation. These results indicatethe better understanding on the characteristics of land-useand transportation integration planning in Bangkapi than inthe traditional process. Finally, it was emphasized that theZIA framework is a useful tool for strategic urban planning

in developing counties. It should be realized that based onthe existing transportation and land use database system, theeffects of internal trips and intersection delays in each zoneare not taken into account to consider the zonal impact as-sessment. To evaluate real zonal impact, we need to developmore complete databases and simulation programs. How-ever, this might be difficult to implement for planning pro-cesses, especially in developing countries, because there areseveral limitations of technical knowledge, as well as bud-getary restrictions.

REFERENCES

1. Miyamoto, K. Integrated Land-Use and Transportation Planning andImplementation for Developing Metropolises. “Regional DevelopmentDialogue” 3:pp.26-45. (1992).

2. Kidokoro, T. Strategies for Urban Development and Transport Sys-tems in Asian Metropolises, Focusing on Bangkok Metropolitan Area.“Regional Development Dialogue” 3:pp.74-89. (1992).

3. Suratsawadee, K. The Study to Navigate the Policy of Urban Develop-ment: The Traffic Problems of Bangkok Metropolitan Region. BangkokMetropolitan Administration. (2000). (in Thai).

4. Office of the Commission for the Management of Land Traffic (OCMLT),Background Working Paper on Land-Use Control. (1995).

5. Division of City Planning (DCP) of Bangkok Metropolitan Administra-tion. The Process of Land-use Zoning in Bangkok Metropolitan Region.Available online at URL: http://www.bma.go.th/dcp/. (2004).

6. Hokao, K. and Mohamed, S.S. Traffic Impact Mitigation for NewDevelopments: A way to reduce traffic congestion in major cities.“Transport and Communications Bulletin for Asia and the Pacific”68:pp.1-32. (1999).

7. Regidor, J. R. F and Teodoro, R. V. R. Institutionalizing Traffic ImpactAssessment in the Philippines: Some Issues and Challenges. “Journalof the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies” 5:pp.3192-3205. (2003).

8. Bryson, J.M. Strategic Planning for Public and Nonprofit Organiza-tions: A Guide to Strengthening and Sustaining Organizational Achieve-ment, Jossey-Bass Publisher, San Francisco, USA. (1995).

9. Division of City Planning (DCP) of Bangkok Metropolitan Administra-tion. The Report of the Comprehensive Land-use Plan for BangkapiDistrict. (2002). (in Thai).

10. Chaiyasate, P. Trip Generation from Shopping Centers in BangkokMetropolitan Region. A Master Thesis of Kasetsart University. Bangkok.(2000). (in Thai).

11. Department of Highway (DOH) of Thailand. The Study of EconomicEngineering, and Environmental Impacts for the Project of HighwayConnecting Hatyai, Thailand and Malaysia. (2000). (in Thai).

12. Taylor, B.D., Godschalk, D.R., and Berman, M. A. The Proceeding ofAnnual Meeting on Native Ground: Collaborative Transportation Plan-ning on Indian Reservations, Transportation Research Board, USA.(1995).

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The authors are grateful to the Office of the Transport andTraffic Policy and Planning (OTP) and Division of City Planning(DCP), Bangkok Metropolitan Administration for their contributionsin providing valuable data. This study is part of the dissertation fora doctoral degree in Saga University under the financial support bythe Japanese Ministry of Education, Science and Culture.

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ZONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS OF A STRATEGIC PLANNING APPROACH … · 2019-04-12 · IATSS RESEARCH Vol.28 No.2, 2004 • 57 ZONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS OF A STRATEGIC PLANNING APPROACH FOR LAND