Zarei-Kesheh (Measuring integral earned schedule (IES… EVA 09.pdf · Objective Comparison of Different Methods ... (Measuring integral earned schedule (IES) and predicting the project's

Measuring Integral Earned Schedule (IES) Measuring Integral Earned Schedule (IES) and Predicting the Project's Final and Predicting the Project's Final

Completion Duration: Completion Duration: The Application of Kinematics Approach to The Application of Kinematics Approach to

Earned Value Management MetricsEarned Value Management Metrics

Mojtaba Zarei-KeshehMojtaba Zarei-Kesheh

[email protected]

[email protected]

+44 (0)7828 126738

Presentation for the EVA Europe Geneva Presentation for the EVA Europe Geneva 2009 2009

CERN, Geneva CERN, Geneva -- 2525NovNov20092009

The first annual earned value conference for continental Europe

� Traditional and Current EVM methodologies

� Introduce the Integral Earned Schedule (IES)

Concept

� Develop the Schedule Performance Indicators

and Predictors

Objective

and Predictors

� Comparison of Different Methods

EVA Europe 2009Copyright Zarei-Kesheh 2009 2

� On the whole complex construction projects are

likely to be finished more than six months late, due to

poor time control. (‘Managing the Risk of Delayed Completion in the

21st Century’, CIOB research 2008)

TIME IS NOT MONEY

� Money: if you leave it, it might actually

accumulate.

� Time: expires at a regular and consistent rate

whether you use it or not. (Keith Pikavance, President of CIOB, conference 2008).


� CPM: The most reliable method to predict the

project’s time dimension (Fleming & Koppelman)

� CP analysis as a predictor: too time-consuming &

incapable of providing early warning signal due to

its retrospective nature.

CPM or EVA?

� C/SCSC & ANSI/EIA 748:

� These standards do not define the analysis to be

performed on EVM other than to state cost and

schedule variances need to be computed.


Physical % CompleteIn current project

BAC Schedule % CompletePerformance % Complete

Data Date(DD)

Activity DurationIn project baseline (PMB)

BAC = Budget at Completion

Traditional EVM Data Relationship

BASIC INPUT DATA

DERIVEDDATA

CPI

EV PVAC

SPICV SV

BAC = Budget at CompletionPV = Planned ValueEV = Earned ValueAC = Actual Cost

CV = Cost VarianceCPI = Cost Performance IndexSV = Schedule VarianceSPI = Schedule Performance Index


SV = EV - PV

SV & SPI in Primavera P6!

SV = EV - PV

SPI = EV / PVEVA Europe 2009Copyright Zarei-Kesheh 2009 6

THE BUDGET-BASED CAMP

(Traditional EV Schedule Metrics:

Budget-based)

SPI(£) = EV / PV

SV(£) = EV – PV = £ ?

At completion (For late finish project):

THE TIME-BASED CAMP

(21st Century EV Schedule Metrics: Time-based)

SPI(t) = ES / AT

SV(t) = ES – AT = Time delay

Two Different EV Camps


� SPI(£) ends up at 1!

� SV(£) ends up at £0!

Schedule Variance in units of budget make

no sense!

They behave erratically for projects behind schedule.


� SPI(t) does not creep toward 1

� SV(t) does not creep toward £0

Schedule Variance in time units


�The idea is to identify the point in time where the area

under planned value curve (AUPV) equals the current area

under earned value curve (AUEV).

�Integral Earned Schedule (IES) looks at when the

Integral Earned Schedule (IES) Camp“Integration of Time & Cost”

�Integral Earned Schedule (IES) looks at when the

current AUEV was to be accomplished.

� The area under PV and EV curves can be computed

using integral approach (trapezoidal rule).


EV % or PV%

EV(ATn-1)%

)Integral Approach (Trapezoidal Rule

Time (Periods)

EV(ATn) %

ATn% - ATn-1%

ATn-1 ATn


� Calculate cumulative values of AUPV% and AUEV%

using Integral Approach (Trapezoidal Rule)

� Now other calculations is similar to ES calculation! In

Lipke’s ES Calculator:

IES Metrics and Indicators calculation

Lipke’s ES Calculator:

�Substitute PVcum with AUPV%cum

�Substitute EVcum with AUEV%cum

�Substitute ES with IES

�Substitute SV(t) with SV(IES)

�Substitute SPI(t) with SPI(IES)


� IES cumulative =

Whole time (months or periods) completed for ΣAUEV% ≥ Σ AUPV% +

Fractional Time Completed (I)

IEScum = X + [(ΣAUEV%t– Σ AUPV%x) / (Σ AUPV%x+1 – Σ AUPV%x)]

(x = whole time (month, period,..) earned ; x+1 = month or period following; t = Time

Integral Earned Schedule (IES) Formula

(x = whole time (month, period,..) earned ; x+1 = month or period following; t = Time

Now)

� Indicators:

� Schedule Variance (IES): SV(IES) = IES – AT

� Schedule Performance Index (IES): SPI(IES) = IES / AT

where: AT: Actual Time


Prediction Terminology

Anbari Jacob Lipke Zarei

Planned Value Rate Earned DurationEarned

ScheduleIntegral Earned Schedule

P.F. = 1IEAC(t)PV1 =

IEAC(t)ED1 =

PD + AT (1 -SPI)

IEAC(t)ES1 = IEAC(t)IES1 =

Prediction

Method

P.F. = 1PD - (SV/(BAC/PD)) After PCD:

IEAC(t)ED1 =

AT (2 - SPI)

AT + (PD - ES) AT + (PD - IES)

P.F. = SPIIEAC(t)PV2 =

PD / SPI

IEAC(t)ED2 = PD / SPI

After PCD:

IEAC(t)ED2 = AT / SPI

IEAC(t)ES2 =

PD / SPI(t)

IEAC(t)IES2 =

PD / SPI(IES)


� For labor-intensive projects IES (our integration of time

and money) is analogous to estimating work in terms of

staff-hours;

� Thus: the work duration is estimated by the number of

staff available

� More people-less time, less people-more time;

Analogous ways to think of integration of

time and money (IES)

� More people-less time, less people-more time;

� So the value of the work is the product.

� IES: the same approach in EVA analysis;

� The product of time and money (PV, staff) defines

work scope;

� The product of EV and time is the work completed.


� The Real-life Project:

� Reporting 100% complete as of Jul 2009

� £ 2,208 million pounds contract

� Planned Completion Date = Feb09

� Actual Completion Date = Jul09

Real-life Project Data

� Actual Completion Date = Jul09

� 5 Periods Slip


-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

SV(t)cum SV(EAS)cum Target SV SV(£)cum

Per

iod

s

SV(IES)cum

Zarei

Schedule Variance Comparison

-2500

-2000

-10.0

-8.0

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Time (Periods)

At period 30, or the 50% completion point, the SV(IES) shows the more reliable and consistent SV trend, it correlates very well. SV(IES) predict also the final delay at this point reliably!

The SV(t) starts to show the real final delay from 97% completion point! Incapability in providing thereal final delay in early /middle stage of project.

SV(IES): always normal & consistent trend

SV(t): upward and downward trends! inconsistent trend


0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

SPI(t)cum SPI(EAS)cum SPI(£)cum Target SPI

Ind

ex

Va

lue

SPI(IES)cum

Zarei

Schedule Performance Index Comparison

0.50

0.60

0.70

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Ind

ex

Time (Periods)

SPI(IES): always overall normal & consistent trend

SPI(t): always overall abnormal & inconsistent trend: Look at the upward and downward trends! Ooops! So confusing for PM!


� SV(£):

�Expressed in pounds units;

� in the vertical direction

� SV(t):

�Expressed in time units

Schedule Variance

�in the horizontal direction

� SV(IES):

�Expressed in time units

�Consider both vertical and horizontal direction

(integration of time and cost together), then looks athorizontal direction ☺


58

60

62

IEAC(t)PV1Anbari

IEAC(t)ED1Jacob

IEAC(t)ES1Lipke

IEAC(t)EAS1Zarei

Planned Duration Final Duration

Du

rati

on

(P

eri

od

s)

P.F. = 1

IEAC(t) IES1

Look at the upward and downward trends! So confusing for PM!

Final Duration Predicting Comparison

48

50

52

54

56

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Du

rati

on

(P

eri

od

s)

Physical Percent Complete

From 30% Completion point, IEAC(IES1): higher accuracy than others, consistent Early Warning Signal behavior / trend, correct final durationOther methods: abnormal, aberrant and inconsistent behavior / trend


65

70

75

80

85

90

IEAC(t)PV2Anbari

IEAC(t)ED2Jacob

IEAC(t)ES2Lipke

IEAC(t)EAS2Zarei

Planned Duration Final Duration

Du

rati

on

(P

eri

od

s)

P.F. = SPI,

SPI(t),

SPI(IES) IEAC(t) IES2

Look at the upward and downward trends! No consistency!

Final Duration Predicting Comparison

Seeing is believing!

45

50

55

60

65

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Du

rati

on

(P

eri

od

s)

Physical Percent Complete

From 13% Completion point (early stage), IEAC(IES2): begins to show accurate and reliable prediction; consistent behavior and trend, the most accurate result, correct final duration. This is consistent and reliable EARLY WARNING SIGNAL!Other methods: abnormal, aberrant and inconsistent behavior / trend specially in early stage.


�Time & Cost Integration for assessing and measuring scheduleperformance and predicting final duration;

�IES: Integration of both time and cost together;

� Unique characteristics of the area Under Planned Value curve(AUPV) and area under EV curve (AUEV) in Real Projects (notapplicable for artificial and unrealistic projects);

� SV(IES):

IES Summary

� SV(IES):

�normal & consistent trend from early stage of project;

�capability to predict real final delay of project (EarlyWarning Signal); CONSISTENCY AND ACCURACY

� IES method:

�consistent, stabilized and correct predictive behaviour fromthe early stage of project (Early Warning Signal).


� Project Managers do not need the predictive results at the late

stage of project ☺

� At the late stage, PM cannot take corrective action; everybody is

aware of delay ☺

� IES method claims to predict correct final duration from early

stage. Useful info for PMs! That is called: Early Warning Signal!

� IES method:

IES Summary

� IES method:

� provide consistent results (real final delay, final duration) from

early stage; CONSISTENCY AND ACCURACY

�advance programme control;

�give opportune time to project planners and PMs to take

corrective action.

�The other methods do not have this capability!


� Mr. Ray Stratton PMP, EVP

for his book that motivated me to walk in EVM world; also

for his technical advice during my research on EVM/IES;

� Prof. Mario Vanhoucke

for his constant encouragement during my IES research;

� Mr. Walt Lipke

Thank you to ...

� Mr. Walt Lipke

for his technical advice during my work on ES

implementation in Thameslink Programme (London) and for

use of ES Calculator.


Thank you to ...


EVA Europe Geneva 2009, CERNL to R: Kym Henderson, Walt Lipke, Mojtaba Zarei-Kesheh,

Stephan Vandevoorde , Prof. Mario Vanhoucke, Prof. Pierre Bonnal

� Anbari F. (2003) Earned value method and extension. Project Management

Journal

� Fleming, Q. et al. (2005) Earned value project management, 3rd ed, PMI

� Jacob, D. (2003) Forecasting project schedule completion with earned value

metrics. The Measurable News (March)

� Jacob, D. et al. (2004) Forecasting project schedule completion with earned

value metrics revisited. The Measurable News (Summer)

References

� Lipke, W. (2003) Schedule is different. The Measurable News (March)

� Lipke, W. (2009) Project duration forecasting … a comparison of earned value

management methods to earned schedule. The Measurable News (Issue 2)

� PMI-EVM Practice Standard, (2005), PMI

� Vanhoucke, M. et al. (2006) A simulation and evaluation of earned value

metrics to forecast project duration. J Oper Res Soc

� Vanhoucke, M. et al. (2006) comparison of different project duration

forecasting methods using earned value metrics. International Journal of Project

Management 24



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Zarei-Kesheh (Measuring integral earned schedule (IES… EVA 09.pdf · Objective Comparison of Different Methods ... (Measuring integral earned schedule (IES) and predicting the project's