Upload
gunner-castell
View
217
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Your key to successful business in China
China’s Overview
-Year 2005
Starmass International, Beijing, China
Your key to successful business in China
Contents
• Demographical key points
• Macroeconomic key points
• Imports and exports
• Impact on global economy
• Key drivers for future growth
Your key to successful business in China
Demographical Key Points
• Total population – 1,299,988,000 as at 2004, whereas:
- Male: 51.5%; female: 48.5%
• China’s population reached 1.3 billion on Jan 6, 2005
Total population (in million)
Year
1,292
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
78 80 85 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
`
Remarks: China in this presentation refers to mainland China only, excluding Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao.
Your key to successful business in China
Population by Region
Region Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Anhui Fujian Jiangxi Shandong Henan
Population 16.25 73.81 46.47 63.38 34.66 42.22 90.82 96.13
Region Hubei Hunan Guang-dong Guangxi Hainan
Chong-qing Sichuan Guizhou
Population 59.88 66.29 78.59 48.22 8.03 31.07 86.73 38.37
Region Yunnan Tibet Shaanxi Gansu Qinghai Ningxia Xinjiang
Population 43.33 2.67 36.74 25.93 5.29 5.72 19.05
Region Beijing Tianjin Hebei Shanxi Inner Mongolia Liaoning Jilin
Heilong jiang
Population 14.23 10.07 67.35 32.94 23.79 42.03 26.99 38.13
Population by province or city (in million, 2002)
• Hehan is the largest province with population 96.13 million
• Shanghai is the largest city with population 16.25 million
Your key to successful business in China
Distribution Map of China Giant City
• 10 cities with population 4 million and over
• 23 cities with population 2-4 million
• 138 cities with population 1-2 million
• 279 cities with population 0.5-1 million
• 171 cities with population 0.2-0.5 million
• 39 cities with population under 0.2 million
Total 660 cities in China in 2002, whereas:
Beijing
Shanghai
Hong Kong
Your key to successful business in China
Industrialization and Urbanization
• Percentage of urban population: 19.2% in 1978; 40.5% in 2003
• Additional 1-1.5 %, or 12-18 million people from rural to urban per year
• Every two years: an additional Australia
Percent of urban population
percent of rural population
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
78 80 85 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Your key to successful business in China
Population by Age Group
%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1964 1982 1990 2000 2003
0-14 15-64 65 and over
• Aging population, 65 and over in 2003: 7.5%
• By 2050, the elder (60 and over) will reach 400 million
• Labor force reached 740 million in 2003; by 2020, will increase to 940 million
Your key to successful business in China
Population with Education Attainments
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1964 1982 1990 2000 2002
Junior College and Above Senior Secondary/Secondary Technical School Junior Secondary School Primary School
• Junior colleague and above reached 55.54 million in 2002, or 5.25% of total population
• Total 2110 universities & colleagues in China in 2003, total 11.87 million students whereas:
- 11.08 million: bachelor or diploma degree
- 651.3 thousand: master degree, and 136.7 thousand: doctor’s degree
Your key to successful business in China
Macroeconomic Key Points
• GDP reached USD 1414 billion in 2003, GDP PPP estimated at USD 6720 billion
• Strong economic growth during 1978-2003, average GDP growth 9.4%, 2004: 9%
• GDP per capita hit USD1095, average growth of GDP per capita 8.1% during 1978-2003
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
GDP (USD, in billion) GDP per capita (USD)
China GDP and GDP per capita
Your key to successful business in China
GDP by Industries
• Industrial sector grew faster than GDP, which was high percent of GDP in 2003 at 52.94%
• Service industry shared 32.5% of GDP in 2003, which was much lower than world average level at 64%, and lower than that of average developing countries at 45%
Agriculture
Industry
Service industry
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
USD, in billion
Your key to successful business in China
Economy by Cities with Population > 5m
Top three giant cities in terms of economic scale in 2002:
- Shanghai: USD 65.56 billion
- Beijing: USD 38.94 billion
- Guangzhou: USD 36.38 billion
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Beijing
Tianjin
Shijiazhuang
Shenyang
Dalian
Changchun
Harbin
Shanghai
Nanjing
Hangzhou
Fuzhou
Jinan
Qingdao
Zhengzhou
Wuhan
Changsha
Guangzhou
Chongqing
Chengdu
Xi'an
Ningbo
GDP (USD, in billion) GDP per capita (USD, in hundred)
Your key to successful business in China
Economy by Cities with Population 1-5m
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Taiy
uan
Hoh
hot
Hefe
i
Xia
men
Nan
chan
g
Shenz
hen
Nan
nin
g
Guiy
ang
Kunm
ing
Lanzhou
Xin
ing
Yin
chu
an
Uru
mqi
GDP (USD, in billion) GDP per capita (USD, in hundred)
Top three cities in terms of GDP per capita in 2002:
- Xiamen: USD 5730 (population1.37 million)
- Shenzhen: USD 5576 (population 4.91 million)
- Guangzhou: USD 5049 (population 7.21 million)
Your key to successful business in China
Imports & Exports
• Total value of imports in 2004: USD 561.4 billion; exports: USD 593.4 billion
• Total value of imports and exports in 2004 reached USD 1.15 trillion, world’s third largest trading nation after U.S and Germany
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
78 80 85 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Imports ExportsUSD in billion
Your key to successful business in China
Imports by Category of Commodities
Chemical products
13%
Raw materials & misc 16%
Textile, minerals products
16%
Food & beverage2%
Mechanical and electrical products
53%
Mechanical and electrical products in 2002: USD 155.6 billion or 52.7% of total value of imports.
Your key to successful business in China
Imports by Main Countries or Region
Hong Kong2.7%
Malaysia3.4%
Russia2.3%
Singapore2.5%
Germany5.9%
U.S8.2%
South Korea10.4%
Taiw an11.9%
Japan17.9%Others
34.8%
• Japan is the largest importing country to China, USD 74.2 billion in 2003 or 17.9% of total imports value
• Top five importing countries or region to China: Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, U.S & Germany
Your key to successful business in China
Exports by Main Countries or Region
Singapore2.0%
Taiw an 2.1%
France1.7%
Holland3.1%
U.K2.5%
Germany4.0%
South Korea 4.6%
Japan13.6%
Hong Kong17.4%
U.S21.1%
Others28.1%
• China largest exporting country - U.S: USD 92.5 billion in 2003, or 21.1% of total value
• Top five exporting countries or region of China: U.S, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Germany
Your key to successful business in China
Total Amount of FDI Actually Used
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
85 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
USD, in billion
• Total amount of FDI actually used in 2004: USD 60.3 billion, increased by 12.7% than that of 2003
• Total accumulated amount of FDI actually used as at 2004: USD 561.77 billion
Your key to successful business in China
FDI by Main Countries or Region
France6.15U.K
11.44
Germany8.85
South Korea19.69
Singapore23.53
Virgin Island30.17 Taiwan
36.49Japan41.39
U.S44.01
Others57.17 Hong Kong
222.58
• Hong Kong: largest region investor to China – total actually used FDI as at 2003 accumulated to USD 222.59 billion or 44.39% of total FDI
• Top five investors to China: Kong Hong, U.S, Japan, Taiwan and Virgin Island
USD, in billion
Your key to successful business in China
Foreign Currency Reserves
• Foreign currency reserves as at 2003: USD 403.3 billion
• Foreign currency reserves as at 2004: USD 609.9 billion, world’s second largest nation in terms of foreign currency reserves after Japan
-10
90
190
290
390
490
590
690
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Your key to successful business in China
Impacts on Global Economy
Nominal GDP in 2002 Real GDP growth Contribution to global economy Countries
USD, in billion % 2002 2003 2002 2003
Global 32,032 100.0 2.8 3.2 100.0 100.0
U.S 10,427 32.6 2.4 3.1 28.0 31.0
Japan 4,004 12.5 0.1 2.6 0.5 10.0
Germany 1,987 6.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.0
U.K 1,538 4.8 1.7 2.0 2.9 2.9
France 1,419 4.4 1.2 0.7 1.9 1.7
China 1,241 3.9 8.0 9.1 11.1 11.3
Italy 1,178 3.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6
East Asia 3,637 11.4 5.9 5.8 23.9 20.9
Others 6,601 20.5 - - 30.8 21.6
• China: the sixth largest economic nation in the world in 2002.
• Although China nominal DGP in 2002 was 3.9% of global economy, it contributed to 11.1% of global economy growth, and enjoyed fastest economic growth in the world
Your key to successful business in China
Percentage Distribution of Global Output
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1830 1860 1913 2002 2020
U.S U.K Germany China
• China was once the largest economic nation in earlier19 century, dropped down sharply since 1830, lowest as 2.6% in 1913.
• Percentage was increased to 3.9% in 2002, and it will be 25.6% of global output by 2020, become the world’s second largest economic nation
%
Your key to successful business in China
China-led Global Linkages
• Near100% of Taiwan export growth going to China in 2003
• 73% of Japan and 41% of South Korea export growth going to China in 2003
• China is the main engine to drive Asia economic growth
0
20
40
60
80
100
Taiw an Japan South Korea Malaysia Singapore Thailand U.S EU
Share of export growth going to China Chinese share of exports
%
Your key to successful business in China
Share of US Import Market
0
5
10
15
20
25
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Japan China
• China’s share of US import market surpassed Japan in 2002 at 11.1%
• In 2003, China surpassed Mexico and become US second largest importer after Canada
%
Your key to successful business in China
Share of US, Japan & EU Import Market
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
70 80 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
U.S Japan EU
• China surpassed U.S in 2002 and became Japan’s largest importing nation
• China surpassed Japan in 2003 and became EU’s second largest importing nation after U.S
%
Your key to successful business in China
Share of ASEAN Import Market
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003
Indonesia Malaysia Phillips Singapore Thailand
Shares of ASEAN import market in 2003:
- Indonesia: 5.6%; Malaysia: 6.1%; Philip: 5.9%; Singapore: 6.7%; Thailand: 6.9%
%
Your key to successful business in China
Key Drivers of Future Growth
• Autonomous domestic engine of growth: independent of external demand
• Household, infrastructural development
• Effect of privatization and urbanization
• Strong FDI inflows and exports
• High national saving rate, and high investment rate
Your key to successful business in China
Surging Material Demand
In 2003, China shares of world economy was 4%, but it consumed 25% of aluminium, 27% of steel, 30% of Iron, 31% of global coal and close to 41% of cement, which certainly drove the growth of relevant industries
China's shares in 2003
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
World GDP Aluminium Steel Iron ore Global coal Cement
%
Your key to successful business in China
National Saving Rate
Percentage of GDP, 2002
0
10
20
30
40
50
U.S Advancedcountries
EU Developingcountries
Japan China
• China enjoys very high national saving rate, 46% in 2003, which means high investment rate in China
• Since 1990, China maintains national saving rate at about 40%.
%
Your key to successful business in China
More …??
Would you like to know more …?
Contact us:
Add: Rm 401 - 402, Fangxing Building, No. 30 Xueyuan Road,
Haidian District, Beijing, China
Tel: +86 10 82371522
Fax: +86 10 82371540
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.star-mass.com