York Region Economic Overview and Economic Indicators January 12, 2011

York Region Economic Overview and Economic Indicators

January 12, 2011

Planning & Economic Development Committee / January 12, 2011

Contents

3 York Region’s Economy8 Global GDP Economic Trends10 Key Economic Indicators16 National & Ontario Building Permits17 York Region Building Permits21 National & Ontario Employment22 York Region Advertised Job Postings25 National & Toronto Home Re-sales26 York Region Home Re-sales27 Bank of Canada GDP Forecasts

Slide 2


York Region’s Economy

Prince Edward Island 4,167

Newfoundland and Labrador 20,186

New Brunswick 23,392

Nova Scotia 28,969

Saskatchewan 41,434

Manitoba 42,057

Slide 3

Real Gross Domestic Product 2008 ($Millions)

Source: York Region Planning and Development Services, 2010; Statistics Canada, CANSIM, table 384-0002

British Columbia 164,869

Alberta 186,528

Quebec 268,406

Ontario 528,635

York Region 43,861


Key Sectors

Wholesale Trade

Transportation Warehousing

Personal Services Retail Trade

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing

Business Services

Manufacturing

Education

Construction

Health Care & Social Assistance

Source: York Region Planning and Development Services, 2010

Slide 4

York Region Industry Sectors by2009 (# Employed)


Top 10 Private Sector Employers

Name# of

Employees Industry Description

1 IBM Canada Inc. 8600 Computer systems design and related services

2 Magna International Inc. 7000 Manufacturer of automotive components and systems

3 AMEX Canada Ltd. 4100 Management consulting services

4 Canada's Wonderland 3650 Amusement and theme parks

5 CGI Information Systems 2000 Information technology and business process services

6United Parcel Service Canada Ltd.

1900 Couriers

7 AMD Technologies 1750 Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing

8 TD Waterhouse Inc. 1650 Banking

9 Royal Group Inc. 1500Manufactures of home improvement, consumer & construction products

10 The Miller Group 1350Road construction engineering services, paving & manufacture asphalt

Source: York Region Planning and Development Services, 2010

Slide 5


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Canada Japan United Kingdom United States

Slide 6

Global GDP Economic Trends

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database

Real Gross Domestic Product (annual % change)1980 – 2009 Canada, Japan, UK, US


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

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20

19

80

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Brazil China India Russia

Slide 7


Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database

Real Gross Domestic Product (annual % change) 1980 – 2009 Brazil, Russia, India, China

Planning & Economic Development Committee / January 12, 2011 Slide 8


Source: Organisation for Economic Co-Operative Development

Real Gross Domestic Product (quarterly)2008-2010 Canada, Japan, UK, US

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

Re

al G

DP

% C

ha

ng

e

Canada Japan United Kingdom United States


Understanding GDP Reporting

GDP is sometimes reported in different ways, making it difficult to accurately understand news reports. Here is a summary of the differences, and what we use here:

Type Meaning What we Use Example: Canada’s Real GDP Q4 2009

Change Change in growth rate from one period to the next

Seasonally adjusted at annual rates, chained (2002) dollars

This is what most news reports refer to. We use these values to look at Global GDP Economic Trends (Slides 2-4)

1.2

Annualized Change

Growth rate compounded annually

Annual rates, chained (2002) dollars

This is how the Bank of Canada reports their projections. They give Q/Q and Y/Y at annualized rates

3.0

Year-over-year Change

Growth rate of a given quarter compared with the same quarter in a previous year

This is how some of the BRIC / less developed countries will do their reporting

-1.2


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20

40

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100

120

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Slide 10

World Oil Prices

Source: Energy Administration Information

Weekly World Oil Prices ($US per barrel) 2000 – 2010

Oct 29, 2010$79.54


US Employment Trends

Source: US Bureau of Economic Research

US Employment Trends (thousands of jobs) 2008 – 2010

Oct 2010139.1 M *6.9 M jobs lost vs. May 08


US Home Re-sales

Source: US Real Estate Association

US Quarterly Home Re-sales (quarterly % change vs. YA) 2008 – 2010

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2008 2009 2010


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

May-09

Jun-09

Jul-09

Aug-09

Sep-09

Oct-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Aug-10

Sep-10

Oct-10

$U

S M

Exports Imports

Slide 13

US / Canada Trade Indicators

Source: US Bureau of Economic Research

US Exports to and Imports from Canada ($US M)

2009 – 2010

Oct 2010Exports +18% VYAImports +10% VYA


0.600

0.650

0.700

0.750

0.800

0.850

0.900

0.950

1.000

1.050

1.10019

8019

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$CA

N B

uys

$U

S

Slide 14

Canada / US Exchange Rates

Source: Statistics Canada

Monthly Exchange Rates (CND buys USD)1980 – 2010

Oct 20100.982 (14 day average)


Canadian Interest Rates

Source: Bank of Canada

Average Canadian Interest Rates (Bank of Canada Short Term rates) 1980 – 2010

Oct 20101.25

Actual

Forecasts


National & Ontario Building Permits


Value of Building Permits (seasonally adjusted % change vs. previous period)2008 – 2010

Canada Ontario

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2008 2009 2010


National & Ontario New Housing

Quarterly New Home Starts (units, 000s)2008 - 2010

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

Canada

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10

Ontario

Source: CMHC Note: Data is seasonally adjusted and annualized

+4.5% VYA

+5% VYA


York Region New Housing

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

# o

f N

ew

Dw

elli

ng

Un

its

Building Permits Issued for New Dwellings1985-2010

Source: York Region, Long Range & Strategic Planning


York Region Building Permits

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Val

ue

($M

)

2008 2009 2010

Total Value of Building Permits ($M)2008 – 2010

Source: York Region, Long Range & Strategic Planning


Building Permits by Municipality

Q3 2010 Residential ($M) ICI ($M) Total ($M) %VYA

Aurora $19.4 $3.4 $22.8 -63%

East Gwillimbury $12.7 $28.2 $40.9 204%

Georgina $12.9 $9.5 $22.4 164%

King $20.3 $0.3 $20.6 44%

Markham $116.2 $64.6 $180.8 34%

Newmarket $10.7 $4.1 $14.8 -60%

Richmond Hill $93.9 $45.3 $139.2 70%

Vaughan $223.1 $69.0 $292.1 -25%

Whitchurch Stouffville $29.8 $3.4 $33.2 -38%

Total York Region $539.0 $227.7 $766.7 -4%

Source: York Region and Local Municipalities


York Region New Dwellings

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600


New

Dw

elli

ng

(U

nit

s)

2008 2009 2010

Residential Building Permits Issued for New Dwelling (Units)2008-2010

Slide 21


National & Ontario Employment

Employment (seasonally adjusted # jobs ‘000 vs. previous period)2008 – 2010

Source: Statistics CanadaCanada Ontario

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2008 2009 2010


York Region Employment Growth

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010*

Time Period

Job

s

York Region Annual Surveyed Employment Growth (2001 to 2010, Mid-Year to Mid-Year)

Source: York Region Planning & Development Services Department, Annual Employment SurveyNote: Total excludes home and farm-based employment. *Projection



York Region Advertised Job Postings

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000


# J

ob

Po

sti

ng

s

2008 2009 2010

Total Job Postings (# jobs)2008 – 2010

Source: York Region


Advertised Job Postings by Municipality

Q3 2009 Q3 2010

Aurora 490 643

East Gwillimbury 12 16

Georgina 63 50

King 73 80

Markham 3,550 3,920

Newmarket 991 1,248

Richmond Hill 1,451 1,665

Vaughan 1,259 2,008

Whitchurch Stouffville 72 124

Total York Region 9,299 10,585

Source: York Region


National & Toronto Home Re-sales

Sources: CMHC, CREA and TREB MLS

Home Re-sales (% change vs. YA)2009 – 2010

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 2010 2009 2010

Canada Toronto CMA


York Region Home Re-sales

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500


Un

its

2008 2009 2010

Total Home Re-sales (units)2008 – 2010

Source: TREB MLS


Home Re-sales by Municipality

Q3 2009 Q3 2010

Aurora 294 180

East Gwillimbury 92 86

Georgina 219 190

King 56 37

Markham 1,431 971

Newmarket 393 284

Richmond Hill 1,391 888

Vaughan 1,020 694

Whitchurch Stouffville 175 148

Total York Region 5,071 3,478

Source: TREB MLS


Bank of Canada GDP Forecasts

Source: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada Monetary Policy ReportNote: Bank of Canada reports quarter-to-quarter percentage growth at annual rates

0.6 0.9

-3.4

-7

-2.8

0.9

4.95.8

2 1.62.6 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.6

-0.9

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

GD

P %

Ch

an

ge

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008 2009 2010 2011

Actual

Forecasts

Canadian GDP Growth (quarterly % change vs. previous quarter)2008 – 2011

Documents

York Region Economic Overview and Economic Indicators January 12, 2011