5
Of course there is a lot of difficult technical work, but also some marketing and communication. In this report, Yole Développement (Yole) analysts provide an in-depth analysis of what has been achieved, what is still needed, and the positioning of solid-state battery against conventional Li-ion cells based on liquid / polymer-gel electrolyte. Today, the leading market drivers for developing any battery are emission control regulations (especially for the automotive sector), which are driving the trends towards vehicle fleet electrification. Even with increased interest from customers in electric vehicles (EVs), there are still concerns regarding EVs short driving range, long charging time, and safety. To resolve these issues, industrial players have focused on solid-state batteries, aiming for a next- generation battery with higher energy density, fast charging capability, lower cost, and greater safety. However, Li-ion batteries today have no significant problems and are good enough for most applications including EVs, consumer applications, etc. Therefore, companies are currently investing in solid-state batteries only as an alternative (secondary option) to conventional Li-ion batteries. Different solid-state battery developers are targeting different applications, such as electric vehicles (EVs), consumer, aerospace, and open space applications. However, the most significant interest in solid-state batteries is for EV applications and thus from EV makers. In fact, EV makers are the most important actors for solid-state development and commercialization. Indeed, they provide $100M+ funding, require solid-state battery in order to differentiate from competitors, have high-volume battery requirements (a lot of battery cells per vehicle and a lot of vehicles per year) and boast established sales and distribution networks. Therefore, the overall solid-state battery supply chain is influenced by EV makers’ requirements. To develop solid-state battery technology, many EV makers such as Volkswagen, Hyundai, and BMW have made investments or partnerships with solid-state battery developers and are planning to launch their EVs with solid-state batteries (small production only) in the coming years (Fig1). For example, Volkswagen plans to launch its EV with solid-state batteries around 2025, forging a partnership with solid-state battery developer QuantumScape. SOLID-STATE BATTERY 2021 Market & Technology Report - April 2021 SOLID-STATE BATTERY IS ALL ABOUT WHAT IS BEHIND THE ANNOUNCEMENTS FROM INDUSTRY PLAYERS Solid-state battery as an ultimate milestone in companies’ battery roadmaps. WHAT’S NEW • Update of companies’ plans concerning commercial introduction of solid-state battery • Updated market forecast up to 2027 Analysis of the perception of solid-state battery by investors and automotive companies, and how it has evolved in recent years • Supply chain update KEY FEATURES • 2020 - 2027 total Li-ion battery forecast in MWh • 2020 - 2027 solid-state battery forecast in MWh, split by application • In-depth analysis of technology challenges and different approaches for bringing solid-state battery technology to market • Overview of the main companies involved in solid-state battery development • Analysis of what is needed for successful solid-state battery market entry (Yole Développement, April 2021) EV manufacturers: who will win a race for an EV solid-state battery? 2025 WILL BE A DECISIVE YEAR FOR SOLID-STATE BATTERY COMMERCIALIZATION Over the last few years we have seen a growing number of research activities in solid- state batteries. However, the development of solid-state battery is still nascent. Many solid-state battery developers are planning to commercialize their batteries by 2025, which will undoubtedly be an important milestone for electric vehicles. Based on the roadmaps 2026+ 2025 2025 2030+? 2030+? 2028 2022 WeLion New Energy Technology Co., LTD This year is considered by Yole Développement as very unlikely to reach by NIO. (Yole Développement, according to companies’ announcements) Non exhaustive list of companies

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Of course there is a lot of difficult technical work, but also some marketing and communication. In this report, Yole Développement (Yole) analysts provide an in-depth analysis of what has been achieved, what is still needed, and the positioning of solid-state battery against conventional Li-ion cells based on liquid / polymer-gel electrolyte.

Today, the leading market drivers for developing any battery are emission control regulations (especially for the automotive sector), which are driving the trends towards vehicle fleet electrification. Even with increased interest from customers in electric vehicles (EVs), there are still concerns regarding EVs short driving range, long charging time, and safety. To resolve these issues, industrial players have focused on solid-state batteries, aiming for a next-generation battery with higher energy density, fast charging capability, lower cost, and greater safety. However, Li-ion batteries today have no significant problems and are good enough for most applications including EVs, consumer applications, etc. Therefore, companies are currently investing in solid-state batteries only as an alternative (secondary option) to conventional Li-ion batteries.

Different solid-state battery developers are targeting different applications, such as electric vehicles (EVs), consumer, aerospace, and open space applications. However, the most significant interest in solid-state batteries is for EV applications and thus from EV makers. In fact, EV makers are the most important actors for solid-state development and commercialization. Indeed, they provide $100M+ funding, require solid-state battery in order to differentiate from competitors, have high-volume battery requirements (a lot of battery cells per vehicle and a lot of vehicles per year) and boast established sales and distribution networks. Therefore, the overall solid-state battery supply chain is influenced by EV makers’ requirements. To develop solid-state battery technology, many EV makers such as Volkswagen, Hyundai, and BMW have made investments or partnerships with solid-state battery developers and are planning to launch their EVs with solid-state batteries (small production only) in the coming years (Fig1). For example, Volkswagen plans to launch its EV with solid-state batteries around 2025, forging a partnership with solid-state battery developer QuantumScape.

SOLID-STATE BATTERY 2021 Market & Technology Report - April 2021

SOLID-STATE BATTERY IS ALL ABOUT WHAT IS BEHIND THE ANNOUNCEMENTS FROM INDUSTRY PLAYERS

Solid-state battery as an ultimate milestone in companies’ battery roadmaps.

WHAT’S NEW• Update of companies’ plans

concerning commercial introductionof solid-state battery

• Updated market forecast up to2027

• Analysis of the perception ofsolid-state battery by investors andautomotive companies, and how ithas evolved in recent years

• Supply chain update

KEY FEATURES• 2020 - 2027 total Li-ion battery

forecast in MWh• 2020 - 2027 solid-state battery

forecast in MWh, split byapplication

• In-depth analysis of technologychallenges and different approachesfor bringing solid-state batterytechnology to market

• Overview of the main companiesinvolved in solid-state batterydevelopment

• Analysis of what is needed forsuccessful solid-state battery marketentry

(Yole Développement, April 2021)

EV manufacturers: who will win a race for an EV solid-state battery?

2025 WILL BE A DECISIVE YEAR FOR SOLID-STATE BATTERY COMMERCIALIZATIONOver the last few years we have seen a growing number of research activities in solid-state batteries. However, the development of solid-state battery is still nascent. Many

solid-state battery developers are planning to commercialize their batteries by 2025, which will undoubtedly be an important milestone for electric vehicles. Based on the roadmaps

2026+

2025

2025

2030+?

2030+?

2028

2022 WeLion New Energy Technology Co., LTD

This year is considered by Yole Développementas very unlikely to reach by NIO.

(Yole Développement, according to companies’ announcements)Non exhaustive list of companies

SOLID-STATE BATTERY 2021 Ref. YINTR21187

of many EV makers, technology achievements, and supply chain collaborations as of Q1/2021, Yole Développement expects that commercial introduction of solid-state batteries will start in 2025, with mass production of solid-state-battery-equipped vehicles starting around 2030. Solid-state

battery demand will represent less than 2.5 GWh in 2027 (Fig2), a tiny volume compared to total Li-ion battery demand in 2027. Thus, no high-volume “switch” from conventional Li-ion to solid-state battery is expected. More than 99% of solid-state battery demand will be for EVs.

2020 - 2027 solid-state battery forecast in MWh, for electric vehicles, space, aerospace and consumer applications

(Yole Développement, April 2021)

THE INDUSTRY’S VISION CONCERNING SOLID-STATE BATTERY’S BENEFITS HAS EVOLVED

Solid-state battery is considered an ultimate milestone in the technology roadmaps of battery and EV makers. A few years ago, such batteries were considered by many companies as a “holy grail” to target, one that could revolutionize the battery and electric vehicle industry (Fig3). Many EV makers have since bet on solid-state battery start-ups either because of their optimism in view of rapid achievement of commercial products or to ensure they do not miss the train in the growing battery competition.

The magic word “solid-state battery” has also provided entry to additional R&D funding from venture capital funds and public funds, thus reducing the amount of investment required from EV makers themselves. According to Yole’s analysis, the vision held for solid-state battery has evolved and is more pragmatic today. Solid-state battery is currently considered as just an additional step in the progressive step-by-step improvement of conventional Li-ion batteries. Indeed, most battery and EV makers are refocusing their efforts on shorter-term technology milestones such as nickel-rich cathode (NCM811), silicon-graphite anode, and cobalt-free cathode.

Bringing solid-state technology to mass production is a difficult task and needs more time than was previously expected. It is clear now that partnerships are more important than ever to bring all the necessary solid-state battery know-how together: technology, equipment, high-volume / high-yield production, and end-systems. Partners with know-how in ceramic material and ceramic-based devices, and with experience in lithium-metal anode and electrode / electrolyte interfaces, may be immensely helpful in shortening the time needed to bring the solid-state battery to market.

How solid-state battery vision evolved

(Yole Développement, April 2021)

0 MWh

500 MWh

1 000 MWh

1 500 MWh

2 000 MWh

2 500 MWh

3 000 MWh

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Ann

ual d

eman

d in

MW

h

Consumer Electric vehicle Aerospace Space

2027

CAG

R =

341

%

Development and prototyping

Ener

gy d

ensi

ty

“A holy grail”

Liquid-electrolyte

Li-ion battery

Solid-state battery

Years

Vision in the past(Solid-state battery “hype”)

Vision today (Pragmatic view)

Ener

gy d

ensi

ty

Liquid-electrolyte Li-ion battery

progressive improvements

Solid-state battery

Years

Examples: silicon in graphite anode, nickel-rich cathode, etc.

“Just a next step”

Big

Small

Small

Small

MARKET & TECHNOLOGY REPORT

• Power Electronics for E-Mobility 2021 • DC Charging for Plug-In Electric Vehicles 2021 • Li-ion Battery Packs for Automotive and

Stationary Storage Applications 2020• Lithium-ion Battery Recycling Market &

Technology Trends 2020• Status of Rechargeable Li-ion Battery

Industry 2019

RELATED REPORTS, MONITORS & TRACKS

More information and details about our offers and bundles opportunities on www.i-micronews.com

COMPANIES CITED IN THE REPORT (non exhaustive list)

Asahi Kasei, AdaVolt, Ampcera, Audi, Blue Solutions, BASF, Beijing Shenzhou Judain New Energy, BMW, BYD, Bolloré, Bosch, BrightVolt, CATL, CEA, Daimler, Dongshi Kingpower Science and Technology Ltd, Fujian Super Power New Energy Co., Ford, Fisker, GM Motors, GS Yuasa, Ganfeng Lithium, Hitachi Zosen, Hydro Québec, Honda, Hyundai, Idemitsu Kosan, Ilika, IMEC, Ionic Materials, Johnson Battery Technologies, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), Kokam, Kalptree, Kuraray, KIA, LG Energy Solution, Leclanche, Lionano, Mitsubishi Motors, Manz, Mitsui Kinzoku, Murata, Maxell, NIO, Nissan, NGK Insulators, Nano One, Oxis, Prologium, Panasonic, Pathion, Prieto, PSA Group, Porsche, QuantumScape, Qing Tao, Energy Development Co., Renault, Saft, Samsung SDI, Sakti3, Siemens, SK Innovation, SES, Solid Power, Solvay, Solid State Battery Inc., Tesla, Toray, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Toray, Toshiba, Toyota, Umicore, Volkswagen, Vinfast, Volvo, WeLion New Energy Technology Co and more.

TABLE OF CONTENTS (complete content on i-Micronews.com)

AUTHORSMilan Rosina, PhD, is Principal Analyst, Power Electronics and Batteries, at Yole Développement (Yole), within the Power & Wireless division. He is engaged in the development of the market, technology and strategic analyses dedicated to innovative materials, devices and systems. His main areas of interest are EV/HEV, renewable energy, power electronic packaging and batteries. Milan has 20 years of scientific, industrial and managerial experience involving equipment and process development, due diligence, technology and market surveys in the fields of renewable energies, EV/HEV, energy storage, batteries, power electronics, thermal management, and innovative materials and devices. He received his PhD degree from Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP) in France. Milan Rosina previously worked for the Institute of Electrical Engineering in Slovakia, Centrotherm in Germany, Fraunhofer IWS in Germany, CEA LETI in France, and utility company ENGIE in France.

Glossary 2

Table of contents 3

Three-page summary 15

Executive summary 19

Introduction 57

Application trends 67

Market forecast 102

Solid-state battery supply chain 107Key companies’ solid-state battery roadmaps 134Why solid-state battery? 154What does solid-state battery compete with? – conventional Li-ion battery 157

Solid-state battery as an alternative to conventional Li-ion batteries 175How to make solid-state battery market-ready 185Main solid-state battery challenges 203Solid-state battery electrolyte materials 222Solid-state electrode/electrolyte interface (SEI) 236Manufacturing techniques 242Covid-19 impact on solid-state battery development 258Conclusion 263Appendix – Company profiles (23 companies) 265

REPORT OBJECTIVES• Offer in-depth insight into the key drivers and value propositions of solid-state battery

technologies, and comparisons with conventional Li-ion batteries• Provide an analysis of the remaining challenges in bringing solid-state batteries to

commercialization, with a dedicated focus on different applications• Present the main potential applications for solid-state batteries and the value proposition of

solidstate batteries in these applications• Furnish a market forecast for solid-state batteries• Analyze different approaches for solid-state battery commercialization• Deliver an overview of different solid-state electrolyte materials and manufacturing methods

for solid-state battery cells• Identify the main trends in the solid-state battery supply chain. Provide a detailed analysis of the

supply chain, including main R&D and industrial players, partnerships, and business approaches. Additional focus is given to companies that are using their know-how (in ceramic materials, etc.) to diversify their business towards solid-state batteries

• Analyze the battery technology roadmaps of materials suppliers, battery manufacturers, and car manufacturers emphasizing solid-state batteries

Shalu Agarwal, PhD. is Power Electronics and Materials Analyst at Yole Développement (Yole),within the Power & Wireless division. Based on Seoul, Shalu is engaged in the development of technology & market reports as well as the production of custom consulting studies. Shalu has more than 10 years’ experience in Electronic Material Chemistry. Before joining Yole, she worked as a project manager and research professor in the field of electronic materials, batteries and inorganic chemistry. Shalu Agarwal received her master’s and Ph.D. degree in Chemistry from the Indian institute of Technology (IIT) Roorkee (India).

CONTACT

ABOUT YOLE DEVELOPPEMENT

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Founded in 1998, Yole Développement (Yole) has grown to become a group of companies providing marketing, technology and strategy consulting, media and corporate finance services, reverse engineering and reverse costing services. With a strong focus on emerging applications using silicon and/or micro manufacturing, the Yole group of companies has expanded to include more than 120 collaborators worldwide covering MEMS and Image Sensors, Compound Semiconductors, RF Electronics, Solid-state Lighting, Displays, Software, Optoelectronics, Microfluidics & Medical, Advanced Packaging, Manufacturing, Power Electronics, Batteries & Energy Management and Memory.The “More than Moore” market research, technology and strategy consulting company Yole Développement, along with its partners System Plus Consulting, PISEO and Blumorpho, supports industrial companies, investors and R&D organizations worldwide to help them understand markets and follow technology trends to grow their business.

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Khamassi ([email protected])• Public Relations: Sandrine Leroy ([email protected])• Marketing & Communication: Jean-Christophe Eloy ([email protected])

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7. TERMINATIONIf the Buyer cancels the order in whole or in part or postpones the date of mailing, the Buyer shall indemnify the Seller for the entire costs that have been incurred as at the date of notification by the Buyer of such delay or cancellation. This may also apply for any other direct or indirect consequential loss that may be incurred by the Seller, pursuant to such cancellation or postponement.

8. MISCELLANEOUS8.1 All the provisions of these General Terms and Conditions of Sale

are for the benefit of the Seller, but also for that of its licensors, resellers and agents. Each of them is entitled to assert and enforce these provisions against the Buyer.Any notices under these Terms and Conditions shall be given in writing and shall be effective upon receipt by the other Party.

8.2 The Seller may, from time to time, update these General Terms and Conditions of Sale, and the Buyer, shall be deemed to have accepted the latest version of such General Terms and Conditions of Sale, once they have been duly communicated to the Buyer by the Seller.

9. GOVERNING LAW AND JURISDICTION9.1 Any dispute arising out or linked to these General Terms and

Conditions of Sale or to any Licenses or Products purchased in application thereof shall be submitted to the French Commercial Court of Lyon, which shall have exclusive jurisdiction upon such issues.

9.2 French law (without reference to any applicable conflict of law provisions) shall apply to these General Terms and Conditions of sale and any agreement between the Buyer and the Seller made pursuant thereto.

General Terms and Conditions of Sale