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Yield-Curve Strategies Ryan Poirier SUNY Plattsburgh

Yield Curve Strategies - Williams Collegeweb.williams.edu/.../public_html/hudson/Poirier_yieldCurveStrategies.pdf · Yield Curve Strategies Author Martha Created Date 3/30/2013 2:26:08

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Page 1: Yield Curve Strategies - Williams Collegeweb.williams.edu/.../public_html/hudson/Poirier_yieldCurveStrategies.pdf · Yield Curve Strategies Author Martha Created Date 3/30/2013 2:26:08

Yield-Curve Strategies

Ryan Poirier SUNY Plattsburgh

Page 2: Yield Curve Strategies - Williams Collegeweb.williams.edu/.../public_html/hudson/Poirier_yieldCurveStrategies.pdf · Yield Curve Strategies Author Martha Created Date 3/30/2013 2:26:08

Overview

Strategies : Bullet: Centralized investment Barbell: Straddled investment around the corresponding Bullet

Barbell

Bullet

Page 3: Yield Curve Strategies - Williams Collegeweb.williams.edu/.../public_html/hudson/Poirier_yieldCurveStrategies.pdf · Yield Curve Strategies Author Martha Created Date 3/30/2013 2:26:08

Regression

Where:

Page 4: Yield Curve Strategies - Williams Collegeweb.williams.edu/.../public_html/hudson/Poirier_yieldCurveStrategies.pdf · Yield Curve Strategies Author Martha Created Date 3/30/2013 2:26:08

Changes in Coefficients

Notation: t = time in the sample s = interval

Change in level at time t, over the interval s

Page 5: Yield Curve Strategies - Williams Collegeweb.williams.edu/.../public_html/hudson/Poirier_yieldCurveStrategies.pdf · Yield Curve Strategies Author Martha Created Date 3/30/2013 2:26:08

Interaction between changes in coefficients

A, B, C, D are to be estimated

These two equations produce the following results:

Page 6: Yield Curve Strategies - Williams Collegeweb.williams.edu/.../public_html/hudson/Poirier_yieldCurveStrategies.pdf · Yield Curve Strategies Author Martha Created Date 3/30/2013 2:26:08

Equation for rates

• *The Expected Values come from previous slides

Page 7: Yield Curve Strategies - Williams Collegeweb.williams.edu/.../public_html/hudson/Poirier_yieldCurveStrategies.pdf · Yield Curve Strategies Author Martha Created Date 3/30/2013 2:26:08

determined by market conditions

=A(High Bearish) + B(Medium Bearish) + C(Low Bearish) + D(Low Neutral) + E(High Neutral) + F(Low Bullish) + G(Medium Bullish) + H(High Bullish)

Page 8: Yield Curve Strategies - Williams Collegeweb.williams.edu/.../public_html/hudson/Poirier_yieldCurveStrategies.pdf · Yield Curve Strategies Author Martha Created Date 3/30/2013 2:26:08

Final Estimation of rates

]

Page 9: Yield Curve Strategies - Williams Collegeweb.williams.edu/.../public_html/hudson/Poirier_yieldCurveStrategies.pdf · Yield Curve Strategies Author Martha Created Date 3/30/2013 2:26:08

Initial Yield Curves

Page 10: Yield Curve Strategies - Williams Collegeweb.williams.edu/.../public_html/hudson/Poirier_yieldCurveStrategies.pdf · Yield Curve Strategies Author Martha Created Date 3/30/2013 2:26:08

Coupon Rates

Page 11: Yield Curve Strategies - Williams Collegeweb.williams.edu/.../public_html/hudson/Poirier_yieldCurveStrategies.pdf · Yield Curve Strategies Author Martha Created Date 3/30/2013 2:26:08

Term To Maturity