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Yadkin-Pee Dee River Basin Drought Management Advisory Group Annual Meeting
Wednesday, April 24, 2019 1:00 PM
Salisbury-Rowan Utilities
1 Water Street Salisbury, NC
AGENDA
1:00PM Welcome and Introductions, Klaus Albertin, NC Division of Water Resources
1:05PM Presentations
• Weather Retrospective and Forecast: James Morrow, National Weather Service
• Review of the Low Inflow Protocol & License Variance: Jody Smet,
Cube Hydro Carolinas • Update on Conditions in the Basin: NCDWR, Cube Hydro Carolinas,
and Duke Energy • Review of Yadkin – Pee Dee Water Resources Model: Jonathan
Williams, HDR • Next Steps: Klaus Albertin, NC Division of Water Resources 2:30PM Adjourn
Notes:______________________________________________________________________
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Yadkin-Pee Dee River Basin Drought Management Advisory Group Annual Meeting
April 24, 2019
Salisbury-Rowan Utilities1 Water StreetSalisbury, NC
Klaus AlbertinNC Division of Water Resources
Annual Meeting• In accordance with the Low Inflow Protocol (LIP) for the Yadkin &
Yadkin-Pee Dee River Hydroelectric Projects, the NC Division of Water Resources (NCDWR) and SC Department of Natural Resources (SCDNR) share responsibility to convene and coordinate activities with the Yadkin-Pee Dee River Basin Drought Management Advisory Group (YPD-DMAG).
• Regardless of the Low Inflow Condition, coordination will include a meeting convened annually by NCDWR during April to discuss issues relevant to this LIP.
• The NCDWR will maintain an active roster of the YPD-DMAG, will prepare meeting summaries of all YPD-DMAG meetings.
Agenda
1:00PM Welcome and Introductions, Klaus Albertin, NC Division of Water Resources
1:05 PM Presentations• Weather Retrospective and Forecast: James Morrow, National Weather Service
• Review of the Low Inflow Protocol & License Variance: Jody Smet
• Update on Conditions in the Basin: NCDWR, Cube Hydro Carolinas, and Duke Energy
• Review of Yadkin – Pee Dee Water Resources Model: Jonathan Williams, HDR
• Next Steps: Klaus Albertin, NC Division of Water Resources
2:30PM Adjourn
4
Status Updates
Update on Conditions
Precipitation W Kerr Scott Reservoir (Last 365 Days)
Precipitation Asheboro 2 W (Last 365 Days)
Precipitation Salisbury (Last 365 Days)
Precipitation Concord (Last 365 Days)
Precipitation & Temperature Summary W. Kerr Scott Reservoir: (COOP station ID 319555; 54 year record length):• Year-to-date: 16th wettest (+2.3 inches); 7th warmest on record (+2.4 F)
• Past 6 months (10/16/18-4/15/19): 1st wettest (+14.0 inches); 17th warmest on record (+0.9 F)
Concord: (COOP station ID 311975; 84 year record length):• Year-to-date: 13th wettest (+4.1 inches); tied for the 22nd warmest on record (+1.2 F)
• Past 6 months (10/16/18-4/15/19): 5th wettest (+11.2 inches); near normal
Asheboro 2W: (COOP station ID 310286; 94 year record length):• Year-to-date: 14th wettest (+3.5 inches); 23rd coldest (-1.2 F)
• Past 6 months (10/16/18-4/15/19): 1st wettest (+12.8 inches); 14th coolest (-1.7 F)
Streamflow
Streamflow
Streamflow
Streamflow
Streamflow
Streamflow
Ground Water
Ground Water Conditions
Ground Water Conditions
21
Drought Status
April 2018
July 2018
Early September 2018
Southeast Current Drought Conditions
James MorrowNWS Raleigh
North Carolina Climate Office December Precipitation
North Carolina Climate Office Winter-Recap
North Carolina Climate Office March Precipitation
0-10 cm
0-200 cm
0-200 cm, one week change
0-200 cm, two week change
Days 1-2 Expected Rainfall Day 3 Expected Rainfall
Days 6/7 Expected Rainfall
7-day Total Expected Rainfall
Days 4/5 Expected Rainfall
0.25”
1-2”
0.10”
0.25”
ENSO – El Nino is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2019, with a weakening but persistent trend through winter of 2019/2020.
The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) favors El Niño persisting through the summer months, with a slight weakening trend into the winter of 2019/2020.
Yadkin-Pee Dee Drought Management Advisory Group Annual Meeting
Duke Energy Update
April 24, 2019
Lynne Dunn
Duke Energy Hydro Operations and Compliance
Key Points
2
• The Yadkin-Pee Dee Projects did not implement the Low Inflow Protocol (LIP) in
2018.
• In 2018, Blewett Falls was operated throughout the year without deviating from the
normal minimum lake levels.
• In 2018, Tillery had 3 exceptions for deviating from the normal minimum lake level.
• Preparations for Hurricane Florence
• Preparations for Hurricane Michael
• Oct 29 – Nov 21, 6 – 8 ft. drawdown to allow residents to modify docks.
• In 2018, both Tillery and Blewett Falls operated within the required operating ranges
for Fish Spawning without deviating.
Low Inflow Protocol and Implementation
▪ Implemented during periods when there is not enough water flowing into the projects’ reservoirs to meet the
Required Minimum Flows while maintaining reservoirs within the Normal Operating Range.
▪ Triggers: High Rock Reservoir water elevation, Stream Gage 3-month Rolling Average Flow, and US Drought
Monitor 3-month Numeric Average.
▪ What happens when LIP stages are implemented?▪ Stage 0 – LIP “watch” stage. No changes to minimum flows.
▪ Stages 1 & 2 – Minimum flows are reduced but are still targeted higher than the critical flow.
▪ Stage 3 – Minimum flow is reduced to the critical flow of 925 cfs.
3
4
Reservoir Trends
Lake Tillery does not have a maximum level. 100 ft represents full pond.
92.0
93.0
94.0
95.0
96.0
97.0
98.0
99.0
100.0
101.0
15-May 14-Jun 14-Jul 13-Aug 12-Sep 12-Oct 11-Nov 11-Dec 10-Jan 9-Feb 11-Mar 10-Apr
Lake
Le
vel (
ft lo
cal d
atu
m)
Lake Tillery May 2018-April 2019
Actual Lake Level Minimum Lake Level Full Pond
Hurricane Florence
Drawdown of Lake Tillery is required
once every five years.
Hurricane Michael
5
Reservoir Trends (continued)
Blewett Falls Lake does not have a maximum level. 100 ft represents full pond.
92.0
94.0
96.0
98.0
100.0
102.0
104.0
106.0
15-May 14-Jun 14-Jul 13-Aug 12-Sep 12-Oct 11-Nov 11-Dec 10-Jan 9-Feb 11-Mar 10-Apr
Lake
Le
vel (
ft lo
cal d
atu
m)
Blewett Falls LakeMay 2018 – April 2019
Actual Lake Level Minimum Lake Level Full Pond
Lake Level indication failed when Blewett
Falls powerhouse flooded.
Blewett Falls Flooding Event
6
• September 2018, The lower YPD basin received ~12
inches of rainfall from Hurricane Florence.
• The hydro station was flooded and all units are
unavailable. The first unit is scheduled to be online in
early 2020.
• The Blewett Falls Dam consists of 176 flash boards and
all were destroyed during the flood.
• Minimum flow is being met by ensuring Blewett Falls lake
level doesn’t fall below a certain level. If needed, Tillery
hydro will pulse a unit to provide consistent flows to
Blewett Falls.
Current Operations Status
▪ Lake Tillery reservoir is operating under Normal Conditions.
▪ Blewett Falls hydro does not have operating units available for lake level management.
▪ Spawning season on the Yadkin - Pee Dee takes place from April 15 to May 15.
o Tillery will operate under Normal Conditions during the fish spawning period.
▪ Blewett Falls has the potential to deviate due to inoperable generating units to control the lake level.
7
One More Thing. Something New!!
8
Mobile Lake Information Application - A mobile application is being developed by Duke Energy
IT to provide lake level, flow release, and special information for Duke Energy hydro-operated
lakes.
• The initial application will provide a notification on the icon for the user when a message is
posted for a lake of interest. It will eventually push notifications to users via text messages
(e.g., lake drawdown or high-water events) but this will be developed in the second phase
(after 2019).
• A release date for the first phase is planned for Summer 2019.
9
2018 CHC Project ReviewTimothy Poole , Chief Power System OperatorCube Hydro Ca rolina s, LLC
Strea mflow 2018• Q1 inflow a vg 98% of media n
• Q2 inflow a vg 147% of media n
• Q3 inflow a vg 212% of media n
• Q4 inflow a vg 338% of media n
• Expected mea n a vg for 2018 = 3,705 cfs
• Actua l da ily a vg for 2018 = 7,028 cfs
2018 La ke Levels
Q1 2018 La ke Levels
Q2 2018 La ke Levels
Q3 2018 La ke Levels
Q4 2017 La ke Levels
Summa ry• CHC Ya dkin project did not ente r low inflow protocol in 2018.
• CHC Ya dkin did ha ve one High Rock rule curve deviation in 2018. In prepa ration for Hurrica ne Florence High Rock e levation wa s be low rule cure on September 13th thru the 15th. Ma x dra wdown wa s a chieved at hour ending 1300 on the 15th (6.76 ft be low full pool)
• Project gross generation output in 2018 wa s ~155% of projection.
• Fish spa wn enha ncement period comple ted within spa wning limits .
• No violations of the da ily minimum strea mflow.
2019 System Summa ry• Q1 inflow to ta ls ha ve a vera ged 10,689 cfs . (229% of norma l)
• 56 da ys bypa ss operations
• Spa wning minima l e levation leve ls for 2019 a re a s fo llows:
High Rock 651.99 (3.01 ft be low full)
Tuckertown 593.63 (2.37 ft be low full)
Na rrows 539.09 (2.01 ft be low full)
Fa lls 361.91 (2.09 ft be low full)
• Note : All Reservoirs a re well a bove the minimum at this time .
© 2014 HDR Architecture, Inc., all rights reserved.© 2014 HDR Architecture, Inc., all rights reserved.© 2014 HDR Architecture, Inc., all rights reserved.© 2014 HDR, Inc., all rights reserved.© 2014 HDR, Inc., all rights reserved.© 2014 HDR, Inc., all rights reserved.© 2016 HDR, all rights reserved.
© 2016 HDR, all rights reserved.
YPD-DMAG Annual MeetingApril 24, 2019
Yadkin-Pee Dee River Basin Modeling
Water Modeling 101 NC-DWR Modeling Background Yadkin-Pee Dee Model
History/Background Model updates in the Yadkin-Pee
Dee Basin Next Steps
Today’s Agenda
An Introduction
Hydrologic vs. Hydraulic Models Mass Balance Modelo Water cannot be created or removed artificially
Key Inputso Hydrology
• Drainage area/watershed productivity (GIS)• Streamflow (USGS)• Evaporation (pan data)
o Reservoir Operating Rules (lake operators)o Water Demands (water users)
Key Outputso Modeled streamflowo Modeled reservoir elevationso Modeled hydropower generationo Modeled available reservoir storage
Water Modeling 101
All models are wrong; some are useful!- statistician George Box
QUESTIONS… Is there enough water to sustain
expected uses now and in the future?o DWR does consider ecologic flows to be
part of “expected uses”. Where, when and for how long could
we expect to experience shortages? GS 143-355(o) required questions:o Locations and time ecological flows may
be adversely impacted.o Locations and time yield may be
inadequate to meet all essential uses.o Locations and time yield may be
inadequate to meet all needs.
Modeling Basics -Hydrologic Cycle(from Nov. 2016 NCDWR presentation to YPDWMG)
Water Balance ModelInflow – Outflow = Change in Storage
NC-DWR Basin Models(from Nov. 2016 NCDWR presentation to YPDWMG)
(from Nov. 2016 NCDWR presentation to YPDWMG)Improve River Basin Modeling – SL 2010-143
(3) Model. – Each basinwide hydrologic model shall:a. Include surface water resources within the river basin, groundwater resources within the
river basin to the extent known by the Department, transfers into and out of the river basin that are required to be registered under G.S. 143-215.22H, other withdrawals, ecological flow, instream flow requirements, projections of future withdrawals, an estimate of return flows within the river basin, inflow data, local water supply plans, and other scientific and technical information the Department deems relevant.
b. Be designed to simulate the flows of each surface water resource within the basin that is identified as a source of water for a withdrawal registered under G.S. 143-215.22H in response to different variables, conditions, and scenarios. The model shall specifically be designed to predict the places, times, frequencies, and intervals at which any of the following may occur:1. Yield may be inadequate to meet all needs.2. Yield may be inadequate to meet all essential water uses.3. Ecological flow may be adversely affected.
c. Be based solely on data that is of public record and open to public review and comment.
(from Nov. 2016 NCDWR presentation to YPDWMG)NC Basin Modeling Approaches
Major Rivers and Large Reservoir Projectso Net aggregated withdrawals
• (First Roanoke Basin Model had 7 nodes total, current version about 60 demands and 8 reservoirs.)
o First basin model was done in the mid-1970s for the Yadkin Capacity Use Area Study.
Added nodes for each withdrawal and discharge location of 100,000 gpd or larger.o Discrete nodes with operations data to link withdrawals and discharges
(Cape Fear-Neuse model 329 nodes) Aggregated approach for agricultural demands. Evolving towards both a hydrology and systems operations
model. More detail on how withdrawals and discharges are managed including water shortage response plans.
CalendarYear
Status of River Basin Hydrologic Models
Completed models2011 Broad and Tar models completed2012 Broad receives EMC approval; Cape Fear and Neuse combined model begun
2013 Catawba, Roanoke, Cape Fear and Neuse combined models completed
2014 Tar-Pamlico model completedSchedule for remaining basins2018-2019 French Broad, New, and Watauga2019-2020 Lumber and Yadkin Pee Dee2020-2021 Hiwassee and Little Tennessee2021-2022 Albemarle Sound, Chowan, Onslow Bay, and Savannah
NC-DWR Schedule (from Nov. 2016 NCDWR presentation to YPDWMG)
Primary Options (used in NC)o CHEOPSTM
o OASISTM
Alternate Optionso SWAM (used in SC)o River Basin Planning Tool (used in
GA)o RiverWare (used in western US)o HEC-RAS (used across US and by
USACOE)
Surface Water Supply Model Platforms
History and Background
2 platforms for basino CHEOPSTM (Computerized Hydroelectric
Operations Software by HDR)o OASISTM (Operational and Simulation of
Integrated Systems by HydroLogics) Other generic platforms available Used for regulatory processeso FERC relicensing
• Yadkin Hydroelectric Project, APGI (now Cube Hydro)
• Yadkin-Pee Dee Hydroelectric Project, Progress Energy (now Duke Energy)
o IBT permitting• Concord/Kannapolis, NC• Union County, NC
Modeling in the Yadkin-Pee Dee Basin
Computerized Hydroelectric Operations Software (CHEOPSTM)
Yadkin-Pee DeeModel Extents
CHEOPSTM Schematic
Reservoirs (7 total)o US ACOE
• W. Kerr Scotto Cube Hydro (Yadkin Hydroelectric Project)
• High Rock• Tuckertown• Narrows (Badin)• Falls
o Duke Energy (Yadkin-Pee Dee Hydroelectric Project)• Tillery• Blewett Falls
Major tributarieso Yadkin-Pee Dee River (main stem)o S. Yadkin Rivero Uwharrie Rivero Rocky Rivero Little River
Withdrawals Returns
Water Use Study - 2014o Part of Union County IBT processo Basin-wide projections (W. Kerr Scott
to SC state line)o 2010-2012 (base) to 2060
YPDWMG – 2019 Updateso Part of Water Resources Plan
developmento 2017 (base) to 2070
Yadkin-Pee Dee Water Use
Uses ≥ 100,000 gpd Water use categorieso Public water/wastewater utilitieso Direct industrialo Thermal electric powero Agriculture & irrigation Base year = 2017 Future year = 2070 Interim decadal projections Focus on net withdrawals
Water Demand Projections
Determine basin’s sustainable water yield YPDWMG long-range water
resources planning Drought managemento LIP evaluation (triggers, response
effectiveness, etc.)o Expanded drought response
coordination Inform future permitting efforts Other…
How will the model be used?
Basin Modeling – Planned UpdatesCurrent CHEOPSTM Updated CHEOPSTM
Last updated 2014 2019-2020 (planned)Platform Microsoft .NET No changeHydrologic Period of Record 1955 to 2013 1930 to 2018Geographic Reach W. Kerr Scott Reservoir to
Blewett Falls Reservoir (post-processing to SC state line)
Potential to include Lumber River Basin
Hydrologic Reach Reservoirs Reservoir & add tributaries
Time Step Daily (in 15 minute operational increments)
No change
Basis of Hydrology Unimpaired hydro-operations & USGS gages (historical water use accounting)
No change
Basin Modeling – Planned UpdatesCurrent CHEOPSTM Updated CHEOPSTM
FERC Relicensing Progress Energy Yadkin-Pee Dee Hydroelectric Project (2006)
N/A
IBT Permitting Union County (2014) N/AWater Use Nodes ≥0.1 MGD; aggregated to
reservoirs≥0.1 MGD; mainstem & tributaries
Water Demand Projections Last updated 2014 (2015 to 2060)
Last updated 2019 (2017 to 2070)
LIP Included; updated No change
Model Development and Use
Secure funding (you can help!) Complete CHEOPSTM model updateso Add tributarieso Update hydrologyo Add NC-DWR user interface functionso Model training
Evaluate baseline conditions for future water use
Evaluate scenarios for alternative water use, climate, lake management, etc.
Next Steps
