XXX Energy Forecast

xx February xxxx

Introduction

This presentation will cover:

Section Description

x.x Executive Summary

x.x FYxx Quarter to Date Performance

x.x Qx Electricity Forecast

x.x Qx Risk Mitigation Performance

x.x Introduction

Executive Summary

Quarters Performance

The performance of the electricity business for the quarter ended December xxx has marginally under performed to Qx forecast by approximately ($x.xm) at $xx.xm.

Key drivers for the Qx performance has been: lower gross margin achieved for electricity customer ($xm)

lower market sales at ($x.xm) and savings primarily from gas costs, +$x.xm due to ramp down of the Pinjarra units.

Additional revenue from a bilateral sale, +$x.xm, and dispatch receipts from Wagerup, +$x.xm

Qx Forecast Full Year Performance

Full year Qx forecast for FYxx is forecast to be higher by $x.xm, at $xx.xm.

Key drivers for Qx full year is due to higher volume of customer sales forecast in Hx, +$x.xm, offset updated Pinjarra x major maintenance in June xxxx, ($x.xm).

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C&I Sales SME/Med Sales Reduced Market Sales Ramp down of Pinjarra Bilateral Trades &Dispatch of Wagerup

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x.x FYxx Quarter to Date Performance (ok)

C&I and SME segments have been below Qx forecast primarily due to lower prices achieved from customers.

Quarter to Date Performance is ($x.xm) under Qx forecast for the electricity business

Reduction in market sales is attributed to reducing generation to minimum load due to low prices.

Savings has been achieved primarily in gas costs from the reduction of generation.

Sale of electricity to Griffin of $x.xm and additional dispatch receipts from Wagerup of $x.xm

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x.x FYxx Quarter to Date Performance – Market Sales (ok)

Market Sales

Actual Forecast $ Impact

Volume (MWh) xxx,xxx xxx,xxx (x,xxx)

Price ($ / MWh) $xx.xx $xx.xx xxx

Gross Margin ($k) (x,xxx) - (x,xxx)

The current generation profile of PNJ x and x mostly correlate with market prices. Where prices and customer demand are low, the generation is reduced to the minimum levels. Generation for both units has been low during overnight periods.

Lower electricity market sales have reduced the gross margin by ($x.xm).

Impact on Gross Margin of Actual volumes at Forecast Prices

Incremental Impact on Gross Margin due to actual prices of both Revenue and Expense line items over the half year

Total Impact on Gross Margin

Market Electricity prices are volatile but have been closer to Qx Peak and Off-Peak forecast.

Pricing pressure is still prominent in the recontracting segment. This segment continues to perform lower than forecast in order to retain customers.

x.x FYxx Quarter to Date Performance – SME/Med

SME/Med Contracted

Actual Forecast $ Impact

Volume xx,xxx xx,xxx (xx)

Price $xxx.x $xxx.x (xxx)

Gross Margin ($k) xxx xxx (xxx)

SME/Med Renewals

Actual Forecast $ Impact

Volume xx,xxx xx,xxx xx

Price $xxx $xxx.x (xx)

Gross Margin ($k) xxx xxx (xx)

SME/Med Growth

Actual Forecast $ Impact

Volume xx,xxx xx,xxx (xxx)

Price $xxx.x $xxx.x (xxx)

Gross Margin ($k) x,xxx x,xxx (xxx)

Lower pricing has been achieved on customers reducing the gross margin earned on the SME/Med segment by ($x.xm).

SME growth volume is tracking close to forecast. However, continued pricing competition has lowered the gross margin.

Although the contracted Med/SME segment is close to forecast on both volume and price, the underlying cost associated with these customer is higher.

x.x FYxx Quarter to Date Performance - C&I

C&I Contracted

Actual Forecast $ Impact

Volume xxx,xxx xxx,xxx -

Price $xx.x $xx.x xx

Gross Margin x,xxx x,xxx xx

C&I Renewals

Actual Forecast $ Impact

Volume xx,xxx xx,xxx xx

Price $xx.x $xxx.x (xxx)

Gross Margin xxx x,xxx (xxx)

C&I GrowthActual Forecast $ Impact

Volume x,xxx x,xxx (xx)

Price $xxx.x $xxx (xx)

Gross Margin xxx xxx (xxx)

Lower pricing has been achieved on renewals, has reduced the gross margin in the C&I segment by ($x.xm)

Growth in the C&I segment has been lower than forecast due to new C&I contracts only commencing towards the end of the quarter.

Performance of contracted C&I customers has in the main, met Qx forecast expectations.

Similar to the SME segment, the C&I renewal volumes has been close to forecast, at the expense of lower renewal prices.

x.x FYxx Quarter to Date PerformanceSME / Medium Segment ($x.xm)

SME / Medium Retail Segment has been lower than forecast driven by:

Lower Sales Volume, x.xGWh , ($x.xm)

Lower Sales Price, ($x.xm)

C&I Segment ($x.xm)

SME / Medium Retail Segment has been lower than forecast driven by:

Volumes were close to forecast.

Lower Sales Price, ($x.xm)

Market Sales ($x.xm)

Market Sales has been ($x.xm) lower than forecast driven by:

Lower Sales Volume, ($x.xm)

Higher Market Sales Price +$x.xm

Sales volume has been lower primarily due to ramping down of Cogen x and x overnight and when market prices are low.

Co-gen Ramp-down +$x.xm

XXXX x and XXX x have been ramped down overnight (to minimum generation load) or when market prices low. This saves gas costs at Pinjarra, and increases market purchases when prices are low. Total reduction in generation for the period was, xx.xGWh

x.x FYxx Quarter to Date Performance

Bilateral Trade and Dispatch of Wagerup $x.xm

Bilateral Sale of xx.xGWh was made to Griffin to the value of, +$x.xm

Wagerup was dispatched in Oct and Dec xx to the value of, +$x.xm

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Q2 ActualMovements

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H2 - CustomerElectricity Sales

Forecast

Update Pinjarra 1Major Maintenance

Outage

RECS Sales Other FY11 Performance

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x.x Qx FYxx Full Year Electricity Forecast

Qx Full Year forecast for the electricity business

x.x Qx Electricity Forecast

Qx Forecast Full Year Performance Full year Qx forecast for FYxx is forecast to be higher

by $x.xm, at $xx.xm

Main drivers for Qx full year is due to: Customer sales forecast in Hx higher than Qx forecast

by +$x.xm, driven primarily by higher sales volume of xx.xGWh

This is offset by: Major Maintenance for Pinjarra Unit x Outage in Qx was

incorrectly forecast for an extended outage than planned. This has been updated to an expected x day outage for the month, ($x.xm)

Loss on sale of Renewable Energy Certificates, as a result of selling within the group, ($x.xm)

x.x Qx Risk Electricity Mitigation Performance (to update)

Electricity Mitigation Qx Forecast

FYxx Impact

Qx Forecast

FYxx ImpactStatus

Alter Pinjarra Operating Profile $x.xxm $x.xm

Cogen x is currently being ramped down to minimum load overnight. During Quarter x Cogen x was also ramped down, during the period.

Target specific SME segment to increase sales growth $x.xxm $x.xm

Increased growth in primarily in the SME segment achieved over the quarter. Additional sales staff had been recruited.

Cumulative Impact $x.xxm TBA

• Mitigation strategies identified in Qx has been implemented during quarter x and Hx.• Mitigation strategies are focussed on reducing market exposed generation by reducing total electricity generation and increasing retail demand.• The performance of these strategies are described below:

Mitigation Summary

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Contracted Renewal Growth Min Gen 1 Min Gen 1 & 2 Base Load 1 & 2

Combined with current operation of ramping down overnight, increased market purchases

in recent months are needed to supply retail sales.

x.x Mitigation Strategies – Wholesale Summary (ok)

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Cul. Budget - SME Cul. Forecast - SME Cul. Actual - SME

x.x Mitigation Strategies – Sales Growth (To be Updated)

Increased SME Sales (Shirley to Update – To Include Growth to Date and Forecast Growth)• Initiatives have been implemented to exploit the success in this SME sector, which include

– The current telesales team of x have been employed to target the smaller use customer segment that is not subject to a high level of competition. On average, more than xxx contacts are made per week.

– Telesales performance for Qx has secured xx sites, or equivalent to an average load of x.xMW. – Since Jan xxxx, additional xxx sites was won or equivalent to an average load of x.xxMW.

XXX Corp Sales AELPG Qx Forecast

xx February xxxx

AELPG (ok) AELPG full year Qx forecast is expected to be ($xx.xm) lower

than Qx, at ($xx.xm). This has been driven primarily by:

The quarters performance to December xxxx being +$x.xm higher than Qx, primarily due to an early export shipment of LPG in December xxxx of xx,xxxMt of Butane that was forecast to occur in February xxxx.

This has been offset by continuing the AELPG business to June xxxx (Qx forecast business to cease in Feb xx). The impact of the business continuing, that now includes a forecast write-off of xx,xxxMt of LPG inventory is ($xx.xm)

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XXX Corp Sales Total Consolidated Business Qx Forecastxx February xxxx

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x.x Qx FYxx Full Year Forecast (ok)

Quarter x Performance For XXX Corp West

Hx Forecast Movements

Ext. of the AELPG to Jun-xx and the write-off of LPG Inventory

at the end of FYxx

Qx FYxx outlook is forecast to be ($xx.xm) below Qx at $xxx.xm

Driven by lower Residential Volume and

deferral of Tariff Uplift

Timing of O&M $x.xm

Additional O&M primarily Legal and Contractor costs $x.xm

xx.x Conclusion (ok)Conclusion

The XXX Corp Qx FYxx full year forecast is expected to be ($xx.xm) at $xxx.xm. This is primarily driven by:

AELPG :- Extension of the AELPG business until June xx (previously Feb-xx) and the forecast of the write-off of xx,xxxMt of LPG inventory, ($xx.xm)

Gas : - The deferral of Coastal Residential Tariff uplift from April xx to July xx, ($x.xm)

The deferral of the Coastal Residential Tariff uplift in April, defers the EBITDA uplift from FYxx, to FYxx and future years, as it is expected a higher smeared tariff will apply for these future years.

XXX Corp Sales Gas Risk and Opportunities Assessment Qxxx February xxxx

x.x Gas Mitigation Strategies (ok)

Mitigation Qx Forecast

FYxx Impact

Qx Forecast

FYxx ImpactStatus

Enter into Gas Swaps to manage current long position and allow turn down of generation

$x.xm $xm

Three Gas Swap arrangements were achieved. Both swaps were at lower volumes than anticipated:

Horizon Power (now xxxTJ, was xxxTJ), ($x.xm)

APA (now xxTJ, was xxxTJ)

The lower volumes do not significantly displace other gas volumes to have a financial impact for FYxx

Target large customer gas sales to allow further turn down of generation $x.xm $x.xm

Additional xTJ per day sale to BGC did not occur in Jan xx.

A successful sale to APA Buses of x.xTJ per day occurred commencing in Apr xx

Cumulative Impact $x.xm $x.xm

• A number of mitigation strategies are currently being implemented which are expected to improve the outlook for FYxx• Mitigation strategies are focussed on reducing market exposed generation by reducing total electricity generation and

increasing retail demand and are discussed in table below.

Gas Mitigation Summary

x.x Mitigation Strategies – Gas Book (ok)Swap Arrangements XXX Corp is continues to explore opportunities to increase the flexibility in managing the gas

book. Two Gas Swap arrangements were negotiated:

1. A gas swap arrangement was of xxxTJ was forecast with XXXX Power. A gas swap arrangement has been successfully negotiate and as of Qx, only xxx TJ winter/summer swap is forecast to be achieved. Horizon Power to date has not taken any gas.

2. APA xxx TJ swap arrangement with FYxx gas during summer was negotiated. In December xxxx, APA took a gas swap of only xxTJ.

For Qx the combined impact of the two swap arrangements was expected to improve FYxx gross margin by $x.xxm. As a result of the lower volumes the EBITDA impact is considered negligible.

Increased Gas Sales XXX Corp was unsuccessful in acquiring x TJ per day sale to BGC ($x.xm). Offsetting the lost opportunity XXX Corp was successful acquiring APA Buses, a x.xTJ per day

customer which will contribute, $x.xm. The net impact acquisition against Qx forecast is, ($x.xm)

NWS Gas Swap Opportunity XXX Corp was successful negotiating with the NWS to reduce take or pay gas volumes in the

summer of FYxx by xx TJ a day with the gas to be received back in FYxx. The swap arrangement has improved flexibility in xxxx and assists in reducing the short gas

position that is forecast to arise towards the end of FYxx and forecast to improve FYxx gross margin by $x.xm.