Upload
marissa-kinman
View
226
Download
5
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
www.seo.nl – [email protected] - +31 20 525 1630
Mind the gap!General effects of ageing on labour supply and the
possible role of labour migration
Skillsnet conference, CedefopThessaloniki, 21/22 feb. 2008
Ernest Berkhout
Contents
European trends 2005-2050 ageing population migrating labour
Consequences for the labour market potential ‘employment gap’ who suffers? what can be done?
Possible role of migration public misconceptions on ‘migration’ labour migration & skills
Ageing
Four projections Eurostat, 2005-2050 baseline projection low growth high growth no migration
based on fertility rate, death rate migration rate
40
50
60
70
80
90
mill
ion
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
High growth/Low growth Base projection No-migration
Age <15
jongeren
220
240
260
280
300
320
mill
ion
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
High growth/Low growth Base projection No-migration
Age 15-64
jongeren
80
100
120
140
160
mill
ion
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
High growth/Low growth Base projection No-migration
Age 65+
55
58
61
64
67
perc
ent
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Base projection No-migration Low growth High growth
Working age as % of total population
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80+
Baseline 2005 Baseline 2050
Population distribution
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80+
Baseline 2005 Baseline 2050
Population distribution
Potential
employment
ageing most pronounced in ‘no migration’ scenario
migrants are relatively young
Employment gap
gap = [demand for labour – supply of labour] demand total population constant supply working age population 15-64
decling
Assumptions: constant labour productivity constant demand (per capita) constant inactivity rate migration along Eurostat projections 2005-2050 migrant supply fits demanded type of labour
exactly
55
58
61
64
67
perc
ent
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Base projection No-migration Low growth High growth
Working age as % of total population
Employment gap (pure ageing effect)supply demand differenc
eto close the
gap
2005 2050 2050 2050
Population (x1000)
453,831
Working age rate
67.2%
Potential employment 15-64 (x1000)
305,076
Employment rate
63.6%
Real employment (x1000)
194,028
Employment gap (pure ageing effect)supply demand differenc
eto close the
gap
2005 2050 2050 2050
Population (x1000)
453,831
constant
Working age rate
67.2% 56.7%
Potential employment 15-64 (x1000)
305,076
257,144
Employment rate
63.6% 63.6%
Real employment (x1000)
194,028
163,543
Employment gap (pure ageing effect)supply demand differenc
eto close the
gap
2005 2050 2050 2050
Population (x1000)
453,831
constant constant
Working age rate
67.2% 56.7%
Potential employment 15-64 (x1000)
305,076
257,144
Employment rate
63.6% 63.6%
Real employment (x1000)
194,028
163,543 194,028
Employment gap (pure ageing effect)supply demand differenc
eto close the
gap
2005 2050 2050 2050
Population (x1000)
453,831
constant constant constant
Working age rate
67.2% 56.7%
Potential employment 15-64 (x1000)
305,076
257,144 -48,208
Employment rate
63.6% 63.6%
Real employment (x1000)
194,028
163,543 194,028 -30,485
Employment gap (pure ageing effect)supply demand differenc
eto close the
gap
2005 2050 2050 2050
Population (x1000)
453,831
constant constant constant
Working age rate
67.2% 56.7%
Potential employment 15-64 (x1000)
305,076
257,144 257,144
Employment rate
63.6% 63.6% 75.5%
Real employment (x1000)
194,028
163,543 194,028 -30,485 194,028
Employment gapEmployment gap (x1000 persons)
Employment rate needed to close the
gap
Ageing effect only 30,485 75.5%
Baseline growth 30,216 75.5%
No migration scenario
30,904 77.7%
Low growth 25,915 75.4%
High growth 36,972 76.0%
But…
labour productivity will rise considerable differences within EU25 closing employment gap ≠ solving all ageing
problems! rate 65+/65- still higher financing pension schemes higher demand for health & recreation
so: figures should only be treated as indicative!
Who suffers?
countries with older population… .. and low net migration
(because migrants are mostly 15-64)
83768273
807380728168
83687967
78658165
70647564
73638263
69617360
72586757
6352
0 20 40 60 80
Denmark
Netherlands
Sweden
United Kingdom
Austria
Portugal
Ireland
Germany
Czech Republic
Luxembourg
EU-25
France
Spain
Belgium
Greece
Italy
Hungary
Poland
Employment rate 2005 Baseline scenario 2050
83768273
807380728168
83687967
78658165
70647564
73638263
69617360
72586757
6352
0 20 40 60 80
DenmarkNetherlands
SwedenUnited Kingdom
AustriaPortugal
IrelandGermany
Czech RepublicLuxembourg
EU-25France
SpainBelgiumGreece
ItalyHungary
Poland
Employment rate needed to close the gap
Employment rate 2005 Baseline scenario 2050
0 5 10 15 20 25
SpainCzech Republic
ItalyPortugal
PolandGreece
GermanyAustriaEU-25Ireland
HungaryFrance
BelgiumUnited Kingdom
NetherlandsLuxembourg
SwedenDenmark
Employment gap in % of total employment needed
Baseline scenario 2050 No migration 2050
What can be done? 1. stimulate population growth higher employment rate:
2. more people 3. more hours/week 4. stop working at higer age 5. ‘parttime-pensioner’ vs. all-or-nothing
6. labour productivity increase 7. outsourcing (production abroad) 8. (even more) immigration of labour (f.i.
temporary)
if all else fails: lower GDP per capita
The role of migration
Eurostat projection assumptions 2005-2050 positive in all EU-25 countries
relatively low in NMS in NL about 30,000 per year
But what exactly is ‘migration’?
“Help, immigration rises!” …
… or not?
-30.000
0
30.000
60.000
90.000
120.000
150.000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Immigration Emigration
… or not?
16,80427,887
43,118 40,372
53,873
24,332
-317
-16,216-6,612
50,838
-27,428
-30,000
0
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
150,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Net migration Immigration Emigration
so….
Immigration = structural inflow
Emigration = structural outflow
NET MIGRATION = resulting sum of both flows
CBS: “Immigranten zijn personen die zich vanuit het buitenland in Nederland vestigen en in de Gemeentelijke Basisadministratie persoonsgegevens (GBA) zijn ingeschreven. Inschrijving in de GBA vindt plaats indien de verwachte verblijfsduur in Nederland in het halfjaar volgend op de vestiging ten minste vier maanden bedraagt. “Dus exclusief de meeste seizoenmigranten!
Which countries of birth highest net inflow 2007?
Poland +6,770 +5,330 Rumania & Bulgaria +5,823 +610 Germany +3,284 +2,553 China +1,566 +659 MEE (excl. Poland) +1,401 +879 Former Soviet-Union +1,366 United Kingdom +1,360
Wich countries highest net outflow 2006?
Netherlands -35,800 Antilles/Aruba -1,200 Angola -1,100 Somalia -800
Surinam, Morocco, refugee countries, Spain, Turkey
Net migration: change of character
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Antilles & Aruba Surinam Morocco Turkey Poland
Immigrants & skill groups
Source: L. M. Kahn, ‘Immigration, skills and the labour market’’, Journal of Population Economics, 2004
Immigrants & skill groups
JapanTurkeyPolandHungaryItalyCzech RepublicSpainPortugalDenmarkNetherlandsUnited KingdomBelgiumIrelandFranceGermanySwedenAustriaUnited StatesCanadaSwitzerlandLuxembourg
0 10 20 30 40 50
among low-skilled among high-skilled country average
% foreign born
Source: OECD (Database on immigrants & expatriates, 2005)
NMS migrant similar or hihger educated
Source: OECD (Database on immigrants & expatriates, 2005)
Portugal
Spain
Netherlands
Italy
Belgium
Ireland
France
Denmark
United Kingdom
Germany
Luxembourg
Sweden
Austria
0 1 2 3 4
among low-skilled among high-skilled country average
% born in new member state
Early experiences within EU migration
UK, IRL & Sweden no restrictions since May 1st, 2004 age 20-40, high education level working in lower job levels inclined to return if no work no rise in social security schemes
But what if economic downturn? no empirical facts yet…
Foreign labour in practice… language!
security (-) customer contacts (-)
job motivation (+) housing! (-) cultural differences
adaptation (-) creativity, ‘best of both worlds’ (+)
price (+) family reunification (-) young & high skilled in low skilled jobs (-/+) seasonal peaks very important (+/-)
…and possible solutions
language Swedish nurses: language course in Poland
housing commitment tempwork agencies-communalities fight illegal labour
cultural differences …
price will rise inevitably
family reunification less likely then before, distances in EU small
www.seo.nl – [email protected] - +31 20 525 1630
Mind the gap!General effects of ageing on labour supply and the
possible role of labour migration
Skillsnet conference, CedefopThessaloniki, 21/22 feb. 2008
Ernest Berkhout