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Robust decisions in uncertain times
SAMI Strategy & Management Insights
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 1
Scenario Planning for long tail high impact events
triggered by Global Resource Constraints
Gill RinglandNovember 2013
Robust decisions in uncertain times
WEF Global Risks 2013
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 2
Imp
act
Likelihood (next ten years)
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Global Scenarios
Community based
Washington consensus
Virtual connectionsGeography matters
Long HandMany Hands
Second Hand Visible Hand
3www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Questions
• Which of the WEF risks is most likely to cause a break down of the Washington consensus?– Scarcity driving geopolitical conflict– Cyber attack– Severe income disparity – civil unrest– Complacency – not a WEF risk– Failure of global governance– Climate change– Food scarcity – implications for energy & food– Ocean governance
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 4
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Questions: for each scenario
• How could you innovate to deal with these?– Security forces expanding into resource management– Water shortages? Crops?humans? use salt water?– Self-sustaining mega-communities – disruptive
change in governance – risk of anarchy– Innovations in food supply chain could reduce
wastage and disparity, c.f. Water– Energy use as leverage point
• Education, health, reduce waste, etc
– Innovation needs a context of informed population
– THIS IS A TIME OF DISRUPTIONwww.samiconsulting.co.uk 5
Robust decisions in uncertain times
For more.....
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 6
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