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“The mobile will be like Aladdin’s lamp. It can give you whatever you wish . . “
Nobel Laureate Muhammed Yunus
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Not quite there yet, but . . . Sense of security in an
increasingly insecure world Allows for coordination of
everyday activities Allows the making of
money and saving of costs Allows fragmented families
to keep in touch Management of contact
information Scheduler Clock Alarm
Entertainment center Messaging device Calculator Camera Method of participation Payment device Map and direction giver Disaster warning device Agri-productivity enhancer Game device Device for learning about
roads . . . Etc. . . . .
“Mobile 2.0”
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How the mobile has changed our world . . . Example of e Sri Lanka, designed in 2002-03
Development and delivery of e gov services at core (to lay groundwork for e commerce, etc.)
2002-03 Telecenters for public access Government call center also
Unsolved problem: e payments in a society with few credit cards
If I designed it today . . . Would switch focus
Government call center in foreground Telecenters as niche, added-value product
Mobile for e-payments
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1919 in operation
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Access is surprisingly high at BOP familiarity
South Asia South East Asia
Pakistan India Sri LankaPhilippine
sThailand
Used phone in last 3 months
98% 94% 92% 93% 95%
Most people approached for survey (BOP and other) in mid-2006 had used a phone in the last 3 months
“Half the world’s population has not made a phone call” was wrong when Kofi Annan said it in 1999; absolutely wrong now
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Ownership and GDP per capita (USD, PPP)
23%
9%
22%
60%
11%
23%
7%
14%
64%
81%
59%
38%
23%
76%
18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand
% a
t b
ott
om
of
pyr
amid
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
GD
P p
er c
apit
a, U
SD
(P
PP
)
Own a mobile Own a fixed phone (household)
Own nothing (but use something) Per Capita GDP PPP (USD)
Ownership is not as high at BOP
Especially in South Asia…
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Most frequently used mode
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%%
at
BO
P
Public phone 35% 71% 30% 8% 7%
Relative / friend's phone 10% 1% 12% 14% 6%
Neighbours phone 8% 7% 14% 7% 1%
Mobile of another householdmember
12% 4% 6% 11% 5%
Household fixed phone 14% 9% 21% 4% 8%
Own mobile 21% 9% 17% 56% 73%
Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand
Primary access modes among BOP phone users
Except in India, combined BOP household use > BOP public phone use
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South Asia South-east Asia
Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand
% of non-owners who plan to get connected between mid-2006 and mid-2008
53% 38% 53% 42% 38%
Mobile access is high … and growing
36%
19%
41%
62%
77%
70%
50%
72%78%
86%
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand
Con
nect
ion
s at
BO
P (
mill
ion
s)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
% o
f ho
useh
olds
at
BO
P w
ith a
tel
epho
ne
Already own something Don't own but plan to buy
Current ownership at BOP (%) Penetration at BOP by mid 2008
Type of phone prospective owners would buy
23% 29%
52%
8%
68%67%
40%
91%
9% 4% 7% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines
Not decided yet
Mobile
Fixed phone
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But lowest preference in Sri Lanka even in 2006
Because Sri Lanka is the only country that charges for incoming callsThe government of Sri Lanka cares more
about the less than a million people who had fixed phones than the multiple millions who have mobiles
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End 2007, 8 million mobile users compared to less than 3 million fixed (mostly CDMA)
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Fixed Mobile
Source: Telecom Regulatory Commission of Sri Lanka
Fixed and mobile telephone growth in Sri Lanka, 1992-2007
When Tilak Ranaviraja scuttled CPP
CDMA growth
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Could be even less because of the Irisiya badu
In 2004, the government took an additional LKR 20 on top of every LKR 100 that we spent on mobile callsWith the “environmental levy” it will
take LKR 31.8 in taxes (an increase of over 50%)
At some point, this vindictive taxation has to affect mobile use
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Taxes on mobiles, 2004 and 2008
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2004 2008
LKR
EnviLevy 2% (t-on-t)
MSL @ 10% (t-on-t)
MSL @ 2.5% (t-on-t)
SRL (2.5%)
VAT (15%)
What is paid for mobileservice
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But the good news is . . .
The government will not tax this game when you’re playing itOnly when you connect with the server
to report your results
