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id583
The relation between a Regions‘ Accessibility
and Economic Growth
Assembly of European Regions Conference:„Low Noise – Low Fare – High Impact“Eindhoven Airport (NL)13 and 14 December 2006
Richard Kämpf, BAK Basel Economics
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Contribution of regional accessibility to economic growth
• What accessibility to measure?BAK accessibility modelResults
• Contribution of regional accessibility to economic growthTheoretical frameworkEmpirical results: Research Program „Policy and Regional Growth“
• Summary of results
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Definition of accessibility
Kay Axhausen (ETHZ):Accessibility can be understood as the number of opportunities available for social and economic life that can be reached within a travel time appropriate to the relevant purpose.
ESPON (EU Study Programme on European Spatial Planning):Accessibility ist the main „product“ of a transport system. It determines the locational advantage of an area (i.e. a region, a city or a corridor) relative to all areas (including itself).
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The modelWhat accessibility to measure?
5 questions have to be answered:
1. Who shall have access? Representatives of international
companies and institutions
2. Access to what? Markets for inputs & goods (GDP as
activity parameter, outbound
accessibility)
3. Which measure for Travel time (fastest connection)
spatial impedance?
4. Which traffic modes? Rail, road and air
5. What spatial scale? Global & continental
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The modelList of destinations
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Global destinations:
120 international airports
representing the world economy
outside Europe
Continental destinations:
291 regional centers
representing European
economy
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The modelThe accessibility function
AU = (WZ * e cU Z)
A = Accessibility
U = Origin
W = Activity (GDP)
Z = Destination
c = Travel time
= Parameter
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Network dataCalculation of shortest intermodal travel time for every connection
Global connections: 280 (Origins) x 120 (Destinations)Central station origin Central station destination outside Europe
Fastest connection including:
- Access time to departure airport (average of public transport and car access)
- Transfer time (change of traffic mode)
- Check-in time (destination- and airportspecific)
- Flight time including connecting time
- time from arrival airport to central station destination
Continental connections: 280 (Origins) x 291 (Destinations)Central station origin Central station destination
Fastest connection from modes:
- Road
- Railway
- Flight (travel time including access and transfer time departure airport,
check-in time, flight time, transfer time at arrival airport and access time from
arrival airport to central station destination)
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Global accessibility 2004in Europe
Source: BAK
100 = total sample 2002
< 80
< 85
< 90
< 95
< 100
< 105
< 110
< 115
> 115
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50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Amst
erdam
Frankf
urt
LondonPar
is
Man
ches
ter
Zürich
Köln
Bruxel
les
Dublin
Stuttg
art
Kobenhav
n
Münch
en
Mad
rid
Gen
eve
Stock
holm
Mila
no
Basel
Wie
n
Berlin
Luxembourg
Praha
Athin
a
1980 2004
Source: BAK100 = total sample 2002
Global accessibility 2004Metropolitan cities (2004 vs. 1980)
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Continental accessibility 2004in Europe
< 70
< 80
< 90
< 100
< 110
< 120
< 130
< 140
> 140
Source: BAK
100 = total sample 2002
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Road accessibility 2000in Europe
< 30
< 50
< 70
< 90
< 110
< 130
< 150
< 170
>170
Source: BAK
100 = total sample 2002
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Railways accessibility 2002in Europe
< 30
< 50
< 70
< 90
< 110
< 130
< 150
< 170
>170
Source: BAK
100 = total sample 2002
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Contribution of regional accessibility to economic growth
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Theoretical framework
Approaches to model (regional) economic growth
The dimension of „space“
Empirical results: Research Program „Policy and Regional Growth“
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Policy question: What are the drivers of regional growth?
What are the measures decision makers can choose to foster economic growth?
BAK research project: Understanding the relation between location factors and Policy and Regional Growth regional growth using empirical and econometric tools
How relevant is policy for regional growth?
BAK Analytical Approach:
1. Benchmarking: Comparing economic performance and location factors
2. Analysis: Understanding the relationship between performance and location factors
3. Policy: Advice on policy measures and possible trade-offs
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DatabaseInternational Benchmarking Database
Economic Performance (1980-2005)
Indicators: GDPGross value addedEmploymentHours workedProductivity (hourly productivity and output per employee)
Measures: Gross and realLevel and growth (time series 1980 to 2005)In national currency and in common currencyTotal, per capita
Industries: 60 different industries(following NACE 2-digit level)
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Database International Benchmarking Database
Location Factors
Innovation: Expenditure on R&D* (1980-2003)University quality (Shanghai Index) (2003-2005)Number of higher education degrees* (tertiary degrees) (1990-2005)Education level of labour force* (secondary / tertiary) (1980-2003)
Patents* (1990-2005)Bibliometric indicators* (1990-2005)Company start-ups* (1993-2003)
Taxation: Taxation of highly qualified employees (1980-2005)Taxation of companies (1980-2005)
Regulation: Regulation of product markets (1980-2003)Regulation of labour markets (1980-2003)
* Indicators by industries, directly or through subjects/technology fields.Some parts of database still in development.
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Database International Benchmarking Database
Location Factors
Accessibility: Global accessibility (1980-2004)Continental accessibility (1980-2004)
Labour costs: Wages costs (1980-2004)Unit labour costs (1980-2004)
Population: According to gender and different age cohorts (1980-2005)
Agglomeration: Agglomeration size Proximity to an agglomeration
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• Theory and observation (questionnaires) can tell which location factors
are important …
• … but they do hardly tell the size of the impact on regional growth
• Econometric analysis based on the benchmarking database
- Basic equation:
Growthit = α0 + α1*Global Effectt + α2*Structural Effectit + β1*L1it-1 + β2*L2it-1 + … + εit
- Panel data estimation (random effects, fixed effects) with
i = 142 regions
t = 15 years (1990 – 2004)
several location factors (L)
Why does a region grow?Econometric analysis
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Econometric resultsCoefficients (annual productivity growth, 1990-2003)
Variable Variable definition coefficient prob. (βi=0)
Global Effect overall sample productivity growth + < 1%
Structural Effect productivity growth for given industry mix + < 1%
Company Taxation 4 years moving average, relative to sample mean < 5%
Manpower Taxation 4 years moving average, relative to sample mean < 1%
Labour Market Regulation 4 years moving average, relative to sample mean + < 1%
Product Market Regulation 4 years moving average, relative to sample mean + < 1%
Innovation: Secondary Educ. difference, 4 years moving average + < 1%
Innovation: Tertiary Educ. difference, 4 years moving average + < 10%
Innovation: R&D Expen. difference, 4 years moving average + < 5%
Accessibility: global difference, 10 years moving average + < 10%
Accessibility: continental difference, 10 years moving average < 1%
Regional Spill Over time invariant < 5%
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Source: BAK International Benchmarking Database 2005Impact on productivity growth, cumulated 1990-2003(in %-points, max impact against min impact)
Impact of location factorsSample-distribution (regions), impact on productivity growth (1990-2003)
Coefficient negative
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%
Innovation - tertiary education
Innovation - secondary education
Innovation - R&D expenditures
Global Accessibility
Taxation of Companies
Regulation of Product Markets
Continental Accessibility
Spatial Spillover Effect
Structural Effect
Regulation of Labour Markets
Taxation of highly qualified employees
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0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
Bruxe
lles
Københ
avn
Mün
chen
Frank
furt
Mad
ridPar
is
Dublin
Mila
noW
ienBas
el
Zürich
Helsink
i
Stock
holm
Lond
on
Glasgo
w
Intercontinental Accessibility
Source: BAK International Benchmarking Database 2005Impact on productivity growth, cumulated 1990-2003(in %-points)
Impact of global accessibility on real productivity growthChanges in global accessibility 1990 - 2003
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Source: BAK International Benchmarking Database 2005Impact on productivity growth, cumulated 1990-2003(in %-points)
Impact of spatial spillover effects on real productivity growth
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• Research program on impact of location factors on economic growth
Signs of location factors largely as expected from theory & significant
Available location factors can only explain a part of the regional variation
• Impact of accessibility
Accessibility matters
A better global accessibility increases efficiency and competitiveness and enhances productivity growth
A better accessibility is a double-edged sword: On the one hand, it enhances business activities and boosts the attractiveness of a region. On the other hand, it allows high value activities to be delivered from a central region
Further research is necessary!
Summary of results
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• Further research directions
Regional coverage
More specific on sources of growth (productivity, hours worked, employment ratio, population)
Advanced Methods (system estimation)
Add more location factors, especially varying between regions(regulation; fragmentation and decentralization; innovation; …)
Industry specific estimations
• Further research directions (accessibility)
Sub samples of regions with similar characteristics
Industry specific estimations
Research on the intraregional accessibility
Mix of macro-economic and micro-economic methods
Research agenda
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Thank you for your attention!
Richard Kämpf BAK Basel EconomicsGüterstrasse 82PostfachCH-4002 Basel Tel. +41 61 279 97 00Fax +41 61 279 97 28