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Health Impacts of Climate Change and Health
Conference: Public health benefits of strategies to
reducegreenhouse gas emissions
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine25 Nov 2009
A.J. McMichael
National Centre for Epidemiology and op!lation Health
The "!#tralian National $niver#ity
Can%erra& "!#tralia
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Outline
1. Political context
2. Climate change:#!mmary of recent #cience
3. Health is!s and Impacts
'( )e#earch ta#*#+ impact path,ay#
2( E-ample#: infectio!# di#ea#e& food
yield#.!nder/n!trition
". Adaptation# Mitigation $ and %Co&'enefits(
). Conclusion
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Climate and Health Council
*ette+ to ,-o de 'oe+# xec /ec# 0 +ameo+!Con-ention on Climate
Change# o- 14# 2445
1hil#t h!man/ind!ced climate change loom# a# the
greate#t threat to p!%lic health thi# cent!ry& the
hopef!l
health me##age i#:
67hat is good fo+ the climate is good fo+ health.
There i# ample evidence to #!pport thi#(
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8he Cassand+a ffect
3ne ,ho fore#ee#& on availa%le evidence&
a li*ely di#a#ter+ yet 4!dge# that thi# cant%e prevented 6
and& that any,ay& other#
,ont %elieve the foreca#t(
7 CC i# co!nter/int!itive: Ho, co!ld
h!man# do that87 Climate v#( ,eather conf!#ion
7 Cover/!p of ignorance
7nfl!ence of hired pen#.lo%%yi#t#
7 )e#i#tance ;e#p( from ideological )ight
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Breenho!#e Ba# Concentration# andTemperat!re )i#e: )ecent
Science
7 Blo%al av temperat!re: clearc!t ;al%eit nat!rally ,o%%ly<
!ptrend
7 Beophy#ical fingerprint# implicate increa#ed BHB concentration
a#main ca!#e of 0(DoC ri#e #ince '950
7 Blo%al climate model#& no, highly/co!pled& perform
,ell on recordof pa#t forcing#.temperat!re relation#hip 6 glo%ally
and regionally
7 Si- internationally/agreed pla!#i%le h!man f!t!re# #cenario#
;i(e(#tory/line# yielding BHB emi##ion# at high& medi!m&
lo, level# #cenario# of '(/(0oC& %y 2'00ICC 200DJ
7 )ange in pro4ected temperat!re ri#e to 20=0/0 mo#tly d!e
tore#id!al !ncertaintie# a%o!t climate #y#tem re#pon#e to e-i#ting
orimminent atmo#pheric BHB#
7 $ncertaintie# re ,arming in later decade# mo#tly reflect
!n*no,a%le
h!man f!t!re#
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1e#t "ntarcticice #heet
"rctic ice#heet#
Ea#t "ntarcticice #heet
>0myr 50myr 0myr =0myr 20myr '0myr No,
Millions of ,ea+s 'efo+e P+esent
'2
0
8emp oC> ;v#'9>'/90 av temp0
D0
0
90
'00
9 '0 '' '2 '= ' '5 '> 'D ' '9 20 2' 22 2= 2 25 2> 2D 2
A-e+age Monthl8empe+atu+e oC
/
almonellacount
erth
ri#%ane
"delaide
Mel%o!rne
Sydney
D$%ou&a et al! 2""'
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Gaily temperat!re
1551553
O-e+all estimate f+om
+eg+ession analsis:D increa#e in daily ca#e#per 'oC ri#e
@ail hospitaliKations fo+ dia++hoea#
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stimated Mo+talit Impacts of Climate Change: ,ea+ 2444
' 1H3 region# #caled according to e#timated ann!al death
rate#
d!e to the change in climate #ince c('9D0(
;atK& Bi%%# et al& 200D: %a#ed on McMichael&
Camp%ell/Lendr!m& @ovat#& et al& 200
