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WTO - EuropeWTO - Europe
Year 2003 : Will tourism pick up Year 2003 : Will tourism pick up again?again?
Presentation byPresentation by
Luigi Cabrini, Regional Representative for EuropeLuigi Cabrini, Regional Representative for Europe
World Tourism Organization (WTO)World Tourism Organization (WTO)
2nd International Conference on Tourism in Bulgaria
Sofia, Bulgaria – 9-11 January 200311
WTO - EuropeWTO - Europe
Factors that affected tourism Factors that affected tourism in 2001 and 2002in 2001 and 2002::
Economic slow-down and uncertainties
- stocks sliding
- decrease in consumer confidence
- slight increase in unemployment
11th September terrorist attacks and ensuing military action
Floods in Central Europe
Premeditated terrorist attacks against tourists (Bali, Kenya)
The Middle East conflict
The Iraq crisis
WTO - EuropeWTO - Europe
Results of International Tourism Results of International Tourism DevelopmentDevelopment
International tourist arrivals
552586 610 628 652
697 693
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
(millio
n)
International tourism receipts
406 410 420 443 455477 464
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
($ b
illion
)
WTO - EuropeWTO - Europe
European destinations - 2002European destinations - 2002Bulgaria 8,5 January - SeptemberCroatia 42,6 January - SeptemberDenmark -2,3 January - August Germany -1,3 January - JulyHungary -1,1 January - June Ireland 2 January- MarchItaly 0,6 January - JuneNorway -2,7 January - August Poland -22,8 January - AprilPortugal -3,2 January - AprilSpain 1,8 January - SeptemberSweden 4,4 January - August Switzerland -9,8 January- AugustTurkey 10,1 January - September United Kingdom 2 January - September
44
WTO - EuropeWTO - Europe
Growth of World Real GDP & international Tourist Arrivals
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
% c
han
ge
ove
r p
revi
ou
s ye
ar
Real GDP
Tourist Arrivals
Average 1975-2000
Average 1975-2000
Tourism Tourism strongly dependent on economystrongly dependent on economy
echo of the second oil crisis / martial law in Poland / Falklands conflict / conflict Israel-Lebanon
Gulf War / disintegration of Yugoslavia
Asian Financial Crisis
WTO - EuropeWTO - Europe
IMF Forecasts 2002-2003Growth of Gross Domestic Product, constant prices
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Worl
d
United
States
Euro ar
ea
German
yUnit
ed King
dom
Centra
l and
Eas
tern E
urope
Bulgari
a
Japa
nMidd
le Eas
t, Malt
a, Turk
ey
Wes
tern H
emisp
here
(Ameri
cas)
% c
ha
ng
e
2001 2002* 2003*
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)World Economic Outlook, September 2002
WTO - EuropeWTO - Europe
Recommendations for the recovery Recommendations for the recovery of the tourism industryof the tourism industry
77
Institutional measures: government coordination
Rebuild consumer confidence
Enhance safety and security
Improve communication
Better targeted products
Vigorous marketing (including cooperative action)
Public-private partnerships
Understanding the economic impact of tourism (by markets, segments, sectors, etc.)
WTO - EuropeWTO - Europe
General trends in demandGeneral trends in demand
Shorter stays and fragmentation of holidays
Sensitivity to price / discounts at airlines
Wait-and-see attitude
Last-minute bookings cash-flow problems for tourism businesses
Greater demand for customized holidays
Holidays as experience: the aim is to have a more participative experience at the destination
88
WTO - EuropeWTO - Europe
Increase in Domestic and Intra-regional Tourism
Traveller bTraveller behaviour ehaviour modelsmodels
99
Trips within the country, to bordering countries or to countries within the same region, especially those sharing the same culture
Increase in group travel among people with common characteristics or interests (church groups, social organizations) due to the added security this arrangement provides
Trend towards high-motivation trips and visitsto friends and relatives
WTO - EuropeWTO - Europe1010
Medium-term trendsMedium-term trends
Reorganization and liberalization of the air transport market , the rise of low-cost airlines
Increased competition
More mature and experienced travellers
Aging western population
Shift of market power from producers to consumers (from a seller’s to a buyer’s market)
Regulation and restriction of access to congested sites
Importance of sustainable tourism development
Increased use of new technologies
WTO - EuropeWTO - Europe
Tourist arrivals by receiving regions, 1950-2020
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
mill
ion
s
South AsiaMiddle EastAfricaEast Asia/PacificAmericasEurope
Actual Forecasts
699 mn
1.006
1.561
GrowthGrowth
WTO - EuropeWTO - Europe
In 2001 intraregional tourism was relatively less affected in all regions
Trend in International Tourist Arrivals by Origin, 2001*
-5.1-3.9
-2.3
0.62.6
0.6
6.3
-7.8-5.3
-12.1-8.3
0.71.8
-6.4
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
World East Asia/ Pacific
Africa Europe SouthAsia
Americas MiddleEast
% c
ha
ng
e
From same region
From other region
WTO - EuropeWTO - Europe
Promising tourism segments for Promising tourism segments for Central/Eastern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe
Cultural tourism
City breaks
Business and conference travel (MICE)
Rural tourism/Ecotourism
Sport (winter sport tourism)
Health tourism
WTO - EuropeWTO - Europe
Prospects for Central and EasternProspects for Central and EasternEuropean DestinationsEuropean Destinations
Joining the European Union
Benefits:
joining most economically and socially developed nations free movement of capitals, goods, services and people joining the euro zone
Factors to take into account:
increased competition the need to harmonize legal frameworks in tourism (The EU package tour directive, the Bill of air passenger rights, etc.)
WTO - EuropeWTO - Europe
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Central/Eastern EuropeCentral/Eastern EuropeInternational Tourist Arrivals and ReceiptsInternational Tourist Arrivals and Receipts
Central and Eastern Europe recorded 76,3 million international tourist arrivals in 2001, 200 thousand or 0,3% less than in 2000; receipts outpaced tourist arrivals, totally almost 30 billion euros in 2001.
Arrivals (million)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Receipts (euro billion)
WTO - EuropeWTO - Europe
Tourism Strengths of Central and Eastern Tourism Strengths of Central and Eastern European DestinationsEuropean Destinations
Rich and varied heritage (natural and man-madetourism resources)
Living folk traditions and hospitality
Relatively developed tourism infrastructure
Potential for varied and high quality tourism offer
Proximity to major European markets
Positive image
Institutional support and public awareness
WTO - EuropeWTO - Europe
Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention
Regional Representation for EuropeRegional Representation for Europe
www.world-tourism.orgwww.world-tourism.org1717